Try to contain yourself, ladies.
Hat Tip: Warriors World
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From the monthly archives:
November 2009
I did a few podcasts last week that may be worth your time if you’re into that sort of thing.
The first one, Episode 3 of my podcast Talking About Practice, is actually not Pacer-related at all, per se, but it does get into some subject matter that we have been and will continue talking about around these parts. Essentially, what it comes down to is efficiency.
See, basketball is a simple sport. On each possession, the offense tries to score. And the defense tries to stop them for doing that. The more times the offense succeeds, the better chances they have to win. So they are trying to maximize those possessions and use them as, wait for it, efficiently as possible. The defense’s goal would thus be the inverse.
Basically, we're talking about a whole new level of looking at the game and trying to figure out things like when (in the shot clock), where (specifically on the floor) and why (players do what they do to make) offenses succeed.
No team has embraced this concept as much as the Houston Rockets and they have gone to great lengths to determine how NBA offenses can become more efficient and, conversely, how defenses can prevent them from doing this. Shane Battier is the poster child for this concept, and he has used the vast array of film, game charting data and advanced statistical analysis that the Rockets franchise — and most NBA franchises these days — now rigorously gather and crunch to significantly enhance the way he plays defense.
Basically, we’re talking about a whole new level of looking at the game and trying to figure out things like when (in the shot clock), where (specifically on the floor) and why (players do what they do to make) offenses succeed. Only it’s all much, much more complex than that and is so advanced that private game-charting/video companies like Synergy Sports and even teams like the Rockets really won’t even tell the outside world about everything they are doing. It’s too proprietary and too confidential.
Us mere mortals discuss this efficiency stuff in terms of eFG% and Defensive Ratings. And that’s what we do around here to some degree — while also fully realizing that these new stats are just tools to help us explain some of the stuff that happens on the court and not some sort of Holy Grail. In the grand scheme of things, even these more-refined resources are still too-blunt tools incapable of replacing the softer analysis that can only come from actually watching the game in depth.
So, all that was a long way of saying that me and Chris Ballard, who is a columnist for Sports Illustrated columnist and wrote the wonderful book The Art of a Beautiful Game talked a lot about this stuff. We start off talking about some of the other stuff in his book, but get into all that Rocket/Battier stuff about 20ish minutes in.
(You can also subscribe to Talking About Practice via iTunes and listen that way. Ratings/reviews appreciated.)
The second podcast was the latest edition of The 8th Seed. This is something me and seven other NBA bloggers have been doing since this summer. Most of it is irreverent jokes and genuine potty-mouth tomfoolery. But there is some actual basketball insight in there. The Pacers-relevant part about comes at the 64-minute mark and while I’d love for you to listen to the whole thing, that 5 minutes of me talking Pacers is pretty much my current feelings on the team. And I’m planning to explore the whole Dahntay Jones dynamic I get into there more in-depth in a column here whenever I find the time.
Related Links
If you’re into the Rockets/Battier/Ballard stuff, here’s a few other things you should familiarize yourself with. I’m still trying to figure out how to and to what degree we should include some of this stuff into the Pacers discussion at 8p9s. I mean, I don’t want to lose you guys who think all this stuff is stupid. But some of it is definitely valuable. So I suggest you check out a few of these things below. (Although Ballard’s book is just about the game in general aside from one chapter.)
- First up is Ballard’s book. The Art of the a Beautiful Game is really, really good and is probably the best, cheap present you could buy for yourself or any hoops head you know this holiday season. I did an extended review you can read here. Also, here’s an excerpt from his chapter on rebounding about Jeff Foster that you might like.
Jeff Foster, the Pacers’ relentless (and offensively challenged) center, had an unusual incentive. As a teenager at Madison High in San Antonio, his coach told the then thin and tall Foster that he wasn’t getting enough rebounds. So Jeff’s father, Stephen, made a deal with him. Instead of an allowance, he’d be paid for his board work: $1 for every rebound he got in a game, $2 for each one above 10 and $3 after 15. Soon enough, he was cleaning his dad out. Though, considering Jeff’s future, it was a bargain: In 2008-09, Foster made $6.175 million playing for the Pacers, or $12,156 for each of his 508 boards.
- The one article you need to read about advanced game charting/stats is Moneyball author Michael Lewis’ New York Times Magazine piece on Battier from last Spring. This article essentially took this whole discussion and exposed an underground world of hoops analysis to the common fan. I actually preferred Ballard’s chapter, but that is kind of like saying I prefer ice cream to birthday cake — both are excellent.
- Next up comes this NBA.com piece about how things like Synergy Sports, 82games.com, Basketball-Reference and all the other, similarly ambitioned endeavors are changing the sport. This stuff just gets crazier and more advanced by the day.
- Lastly is the stat page that Mike Kurylo of KnickerBlogger (who you might remember from the Pacers/Knicks preview on 8p9s) has dubbed his “Layman’s Guide to Advanced Statistics.” This guy has been focusing on this stuff for a long time now as anyone, and he really knows how to break it all down in (relatively) plain English.
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My boy Rob Mahoney has been doing the Lord’s work with his Moving Pictures video series over at the Mavs blog The Two Man Game. And, by happenstance, his latest episode focuses on how Dallas got lit up by the Warriors and, more specifically, Monta Ellis.
I focused on Monta’s explosive scoring ability in yesterday’s GSW/IND game preview because (a) he’s been killing it lately, and (b) his game is an apt microcosm for the entire Warriors team; he can shoot his team to victory or defeat all by himself, just like Golden State.
And while the Warriors aren’t a great team — or even a good one, frankly — and the Pacers have generally been holding opposing teams to low FG% numbers (although, less so over the past five games), the one thing that the Indy defense has really, really struggled with all year is guarding the pick-and-roll. As you’ll notice when you watch the video below, G-State routinely used the high pick-and-roll early in the shot clock to decimate the interior defense of the Mavericks the other night.
And this has me worried.
The good news is that Indiana can’t possibly play worse PnR defense than Dallas did. But the bad news is that I’m not sure Indy will have any triumphantly more successful answer to stop an aided-by-a-screen Monta off the dribble either.
I suppose we’ll find out for sure in about 8 hours. In the meantime, someone get Monta a moped.
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Well, we’re just about a month into the season, so let’s take a look at some of the big numbers that tell some of the stories of the year thus far.
6 – 8
Just as in the preseason, their winning percentage is pointing them towards 35 wins. However, they’ve been wildly inconsistent, and it’s next to impossible to use this as a strong indicator one way or the other.
.337
The combined winning percentage of the 6 teams the Pacers have defeated. Only Boston, at 12-4, has a winning record. The other five are a combined 20-59, or .253.
1-5
Pacers’ record vs. winning teams this season. The losses have been by a combined 73 points, almost 15 points a game.
.444
The Pacers’ record at home (4-5). They’ve played 9 of their first 14 games at home and couldn’t even go .500. Worse, they’ve been utterly dominated in three of those losses: Miami, Denver and Dallas.
100.6, 114.5
The Pacers offensive output per 100 possessions was horrendous in their losses at barely over a point per. Defensively, they were just as bad, posting a Defensive Rating that would rank 29th in the league.
5.0
After a summer emphasizing defense, the Pacers have improved their overall Defensive Rating by 5 full points, from 109.2 to 104.2. Unfortunately…
-6.5
Their offensive output has dropped precipitously from 108.1 to 101.6 this year. Friday night’s debacle vs. Dallas marked the sixth time this season the Pacers have failed to score a point per possession. It only happened 12 times all of last year.
22 & 20
The limitations on minutes for rookie Buckaroo Banzai and returning wingman Mike Dunleavy. These, along with injuries to Troy Murphy and Danny Granger, only prolong the amount of time it will take for these players to get acclimated to each other, and for O’Brien to figure out a steady rotation.
9.0, 72.3%
Danny is averaging 9.0 attempts from beyond the arc this season. No NBA player has averaged that many since…well…ever. Only 6 players in NBA history have averaged more than 8. Worse, 72.3% of his shots are coming from 16 feet and out (including 3s). His eFG% is a pretty poor .486 on those shots. C’mon, Danny.
29th, 4th
Fewer than 28% of the Pacers’ shots are coming at the rim, ranking 29th in the league. Meanwhile, they are 4th in percentage of shots taken outside of 15 feet. Almost 53% of their attempts are coming from the perimeter.
1-7, 5-1
The Pacers are 1-7 in games where Troy Murphy played. They are 5-1 in games where he was absent. This may or may not be a huge indictment of T-Murda, but you can’t look at those numbers without considering these numbers:
.595, .298
The eight teams that the Pacers faced with Murphy are a combined 78-53. The six teams that the Pacers faced without Murphy have totaled 28 wins against 66 losses.
3rd, 24th
The Pacers allow opponents only a .473 eFG%, which is good for third in the league. Unfortunately, they, themselves, only manage a 24th best .475 eFG%.
7 of 8
Of the eight losses the Pacers have suffered this season, seven of them have been by double digits. They were competitive up until the fourth quarter in two of them (Atlanta & Cleveland), but the others have just been debacles. They only lost 15 games last season by double digits.
131,587
Reported attendance for the Pacers first ten home games. It’s been a mix of large crowds (Miami, Boston, Cleveland and Dallas), and very, very sparse crowds. Unfortunately, the crowd only left happy in the Boston game. If the product doesn’t get better, many of the games later this season will be accurately described as “intimate gatherings.”
16.7, 8.0, 4.7
Though on a minute limitation, Tyler Hansbrough has been relatively productive in his first 9 games. He’s averaging 8.0 points and 4.7 rebounds in just under 17 minutes. His aggressiveness has earned him almost 9 FTAs per 36 minutes (unheard of for a rookie), and the loving moniker of “Buckaroo Banzai” around these parts.
I realize the Pacers are operating under tight fiscal restraints, but surely they could find something better than the offensive weapons they’ve brandished this season.
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