From the monthly archives:

November 2009

Game #13 Recap: A Different Set of Eyes

by Tim Donahue on November 26, 2009 at 1:51 am · 23 comments

We’re going to do something a little different tonight. It’s probably a one-shot deal, so bear with me. I promise I’ll give you some hard basketball analysis and stats on tonight’s game as part of Friday’s preview, but tonight, we’re going to wander into the weeds a bit.

Took my son to the game tonight. Mitchell just turned 10, and though this wasn’t the first Pacer game we’ve attended together, they haven’t been as common as one would hope. Mitchell loves to play sports (particularly football and basketball), but he doesn’t regularly watch them, either on TV or in person. While I went down to the game hoping to see the Pacers win, he was probably going down to the game hoping to get something cool from the gift shop and maybe some nachos.

The evening didn’t get off to a great start. On the way down to Conseco, we heard the words “Danny Granger” and “MCL”  in the same sentence.   That could be good if somebody’s telling you they saw Danny eating a Roast Beef Manhattan at the MCL Cafeteria in Speedway. The odds of that being the case are not statistically significant. As you all know by now, if Danny was eating that delightful concoction of starch and fat, he was doing it with his leg elevated. He missed the game with what was later reported as a mild knee sprain.  By the end of the first quarter, the Pacers had managed only 12 points, and I can tell you firsthand that it was miraculous they had that many.

At this point, a million things are running through my head – “Lord, the offense is horrible.” “Why does Dahntay keep trying to bounce all of his passes off of Marcus Camby’s legs?” “Troy Murphy’s mechanics are all screwed up. He looks like he’s squeezing out his shot, like he’s a tube of toothpaste.” “2011 is a very, very long way away.” “What Native American burial ground did I violate?”

Mitchell, meanwhile, thinks it’s a good time for nachos.

The rest of the first half continued on the same tack. After an early flurry brought the Pacers within one, they fell back to trail pretty consistently between 6 and 9 points for the rest of the half. Mitchell sat quietly during this time working away at his nachos and looking bored. It was a good thing that he had the nachos, because he would have been otherwise indistinguishable from the rest of the crowd. I had told him before the game, that we were going to have to stay for the entire game, regardless of what happened.  He was resigned, but I was having my doubts. He was even ambivalent about the halftime entertainment, which was a trampoline act featuring two guys who, for all the world, appeared to have been recruited from the local Dad’s club. He did comment that he couldn’t wait to see Boomer do his dunk routine at the start of the fourth.

So, the two of us were both waiting for the end of the game, a practice that has become all too commonplace for Pacer games over the past few years. Both teams spent the first half of the third spinning their wheels, before the Pacers started to grind their way back into the game. I was mildly hopeful that they might be able to steal this one against a craptacular Clippers team, but that’s about it.

Then, after a Dahntay Jones and-one cut the deficit to 52-51, I heard a small voice tinged with excitement say, “If they get one more basket, they’ll be in the lead.”

Sadly, my first reaction was a little bit of pity for him. The poor kid, he doesn’t realize how much time is left, or how many things could go wrong.

Then I thought about  that, and realized that he was purely in the moment. He wasn’t burdened by preconceived notions or prejudices.  He didn’t have any long term agendas or baggage to color what was happening on the court. He wasn’t worried about tilting the windmills associated with some future championship, nor did he care about the substitution patterns or about anybody’s contract. He simply wanted the Pacers to win.

Mitchell had become the embodiment of something that I had stopped being a very, very long time ago: a pure and simple fan.

For the rest of the game, I became captivated not only by the events on the floor, but by Mitchell’s reaction to them. After each big play, I was compelled first to look at him – to try to capture the moment. To live vicariously as someone that I can never be again. Every father derives great pleasure from seeing their son being genuinely happy. There are few things more precious than being able to share these small little things with your son.  For about an hour tonight, I was able to experience an NBA regular season game in November between also-rans as something shiny, special, and new.  Each defensive stop, each big shot, became a fresh injection of youth. Mitchell responded to these things like a kid on Christmas – with a clean, innocent joy uncluttered by suspicion or doubt. No expectations beyond the result of that play at that moment. I felt blessed to be able to witness these. Hopeful that I was in some way a part of his exuberance. That this game was special to him, in part, because he was with me, just as being there with him made it so meaningful to me.

We both left the game after the Pacers’ 86-73 win with a bounce in our step. Mitchell changed into his basketball uniform immediately upon returning home, and for the next hour, I could hear him upstairs playing on his Pacers Hoop & Backboard set. He was takin’ it to the rack until his mother finally put her foot down. Shortly thereafter, he drifted off to a blissful sleep…hopefully dreaming of that pretty inbound give-and-go between Dahntay Jones and Roy Hibbert that led to a dunk.

So, it’s the wee hours on Thanksgiving morning. The pies are cooling, and the turkey is spending the night in a nice honey brine. I should probably head to bed, but not before I give some thanks.

First, thanks to all of you for indulging me in this little exercise. Second, thanks to Jared Wade for so graciously allowing me to write about the Pacers that I love, and the freedom to meander as I do. Third, to the Pacers who played tonight for continuing to plug away at a seemingly futile task and providing the events that created the moments. Finally, thanks to Mitchell for being, well, Mitchell.

Happy Thanksgiving to all. Best wishes to you and yours. We’ll talk basketball again on Friday.

Happy Thanksgiving, Bubba…Thanks for going to the game with me.  Love ya, Buddy.

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Game #13 Preview – Another Day Older and Deeper in Debt

by Tim Donahue on November 25, 2009 at 2:10 pm · 1 comment

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Indiana Pacers
Conseco Fieldhouse
Indianapolis, Indiana
7:00 PM EST

Pacers vs. Clippers
5-7 (9th) Record 6-9 (10th)
Lost 4 Streak Won 2
-2.25 (19th) Avg Scoring Margin -3.20 (21th)
99.8 (13th) Points Per Game 96.5 (24th)
102.9 (25th) Offensive Rating 103.9 (23rd)
105.2 (14th) Defensive Rating 107.4 (19th)
.480 (23rd) eFG% .499 (14th)
.483 (11th) Opponent's eFG% .483 (11th)
97.1 (2nd) Pace 92.9 (14th)

Glossary: Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | eFG% | Pace

The easiest thing to do would be to simply cut and paste yesterday’s preview, and change the names to protect the innocent.  However, it’s really hard to find any innocents.  Yesterday, the Pacers were trying to snap a three-game losing streak.  Today, it’s a four-game skein they’re trying to halt.

Over the last two losses, the Pacers have added all around horrible defense to the litany of offense woes I detailed yesterday.  They’ve been particularly badly exploited in pick and rolls, but the failures have not been limited to that.  Rather than launch into a lengthy attempt to rationalize an increasingly irrational situation, I think I’ll just give you some things to look for tonight, and start preparing for Thanksgiving.

  • In the second half last night, Danny returned to his All Star form by scoring 22 points and helping the Pacers to cut 16 points off of a 21-point halftime deficit.  The effort fell short, but the important question is, “Can he do it again?”  He was only 3/12 in the first half, and he’s shot under 40% in 7 of the 12 games this season.
  • Roy Hibbert is expected to return to the line up after seeing only short minutes in the Toronto game.  Matchups were the cause of his limit last night, but that shouldn’t be an issue against the Clippers.  L.A. starts the 7’0″ Chris Kaman and the 6’11″ Marcus Camby on their front line, and bring the 7’0″ DeAndre Jordan off the bench.  O’Brien has been non-committal, though, and it may be a game time decision.
  • Hoosier native Eric Gordon is questionable for tonight’s game with a strained groin that has cause him to miss eight of his team’s 15 games.  He was averaging almost 19 points per night on over 50% shooting before going down.  Rasual Butler has taken his place in the starting lineup.
  • Baron Davis has stayed healthy this year, but he’s still exhibiting that questionable shot selection, shooting a paltry 38% from the floor and 29% from beyond the arc.
  • Surprisingly, the Clippers are led in scoring by Captain Caveman (Chris Kaman).  His 20.5 points a contest nearly doubles his career scoring average, and is almost five points higher than his previous best of 15.7.
  • It won’t be a Dunleavy family holiday tonight, as Junior has elected to sit out a few more games in order to get into better game shape.  He’s currently expected to return sometime during next week’s West Coast road trip.
  • Buckaroo Banzai (Hansbrough) played only 15 minutes last night, despite being cleared to play 22 by the medical staff.  He was pretty effective in his time, so it was a bit of a head scratcher as to why he didn’t play more.  O’Brien later explained that the 22 minutes includes practice time, as well, and some of that had been used up earlier in the day.
  • Tonight is the first a home-and-home series with the Clippers.  They’ll be done with them early this year, as they visit the Staples Center on December 5th.
  • Friday night, the Pacers host Rick Carlisle’s Dallas Mavericks before leaving for a four-game West Coast road trip.  This may be the most forgiving West Coast swing I’ve ever seen, as the Pacers will face three losing teams (Sacramento, Golden State, and the Clippers) and the Utah Jazz, who sit at .500.  Normally, this would be cause for some optimism, but the Pacers are not playing at a level necessary to beat anyone on any floor right now.  Here’s hoping this two-game homestand will change that.

Most importantly, I hope that this holiday weekend finds you and yours safe, happy, and warm.

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Game #12 Recap – Too Little, Too Late

by Tim Donahue on November 25, 2009 at 2:15 am · 1 comment

Pacers vs. Raptors
112 Score 123
39/86 FG/FGA 43/77
45.3% FG% 55.8%
12-27 3PA/3PM 9-18
44.4% 3PT% 10.0%
52.3% eFG% 61.7%
22-26 FT/FTA 28-37
84.6% FT% 75.7%
34 (7) Rebounds (Offensive) 43 (8)
13 Turnovers 13
26 Assists 28
3 Steals 7
4 Blocks 8

I believe the exact words I used were “real ugly, real quick.” Regrettably, I understated the issue.  After O’Brien made a lineup change specifically designed to address their pick and roll defense issues, the Pacers opened the game by — wait for it — being torched twice on successive pick and rolls. Such was the start to a 1st half that had Toronto and Indiana announcers scrambling to see what the Raps’ record was for most points scored in the first half. (It’s 79.) I could go into the details, but do you really want re-live a half where the Pacers’ biggest (only) accomplishment was to prevent the Raps from setting that record (by holding them to 74)?

Suffice it to say that the Pacers had dug themselves a 21-point hole by allowing Toronto to shoot a ridiculous .695 eFG%, while putting up an anemic .432 themselves against the worst defense in the league. (Well, excluding the one that played for the Pacers in the first half.)

The game would have been a complete disaster if not for a guest appearance by the 2008-2009 version of Danny Granger in the second half. After going three for 12 in the first half, Danny announced his arrival with back-to-back three’s to open the third quarter.  From there, he proceeded to put together a 22-point half and finish with team highs in points (36), rebounds (9), and assists (5). It was, unfortunately, too little too late, as the Pacers were outscored 26-20 after they cut the deficit to five with 33 seconds left in the third.

If the Celtic game was an illustration of what might be, then the last three games show how far this team really is from that ideal. The team still largely plays as if they just met when they got to the arena, and the offense is putrid unless Danny is hitting on all cylinders. Last year’s team brought a puncher’s chance into virtually every game with their shooting, but this year’s team has lacked any kind of consistent firepower. The defense, while improved, is still not capable of dealing with a team with strong ball movement and a lot of shooters like Toronto. The Raptors are, after all, the top offensive team in the league.

Where this goes from here is difficult to tell. The confusion will likely remain as Indiana tries to work Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster back into the rotation.  Hopefully, Mike Dunleavy’s return will further complicate matters next week.  Meanwhile, the Pacers continue a replay of last season’s early wasted opportunities. In the current four-game losing streak, they’ve dropped games to two bad teams (New York and Charlotte) and one exceedingly mediocre team (Toronto). They are 3-4 at home. They cannot afford to dig the same hole they did last year in November and December, particularly since they’ve had an unbelievably favorable schedule to this point.

In any case, here are some other observations on a relatively depressing evening:

  • Jeff Foster was finally Jeff Foster in the second half tonight. He didn’t have a great box score, but he brought good defense on Bosh and some much needed energy. Also, it was nice to see a big man who could actually execute in the high post. If you watch Foster’s game, he gives an excellent illustration of how a non-scorer can actually help the offense. The Pacers last real chance to may have come when they failed to convert on two vintage Foster offensive rebounds on the same possession early in the fourth.
  • Roy Hibbert scored 8 points in 11 first half minutes, but did not see action in the second. Much will be made of this in some quarters, but it will be much ado about nothing. While it was very nice to see two well-executed pick and rolls between Roy and Earl Watson, his numbers look more impressive than they really were, and the team was -12 with him on the floor. The Pacers needed to scramble to get back into the game, and Solomon Jones was given a shot. When the team played well with Solo in, it was pretty clear that Roy was going to be done for the night. He’ll be back in the starting lineup tomorrow against the Clippers.
  • Troy Murphy finally hit a couple of threes in the fourth quarter, but there’s a whole lot that worries me about Troy’s game at this point. He had two big rebounds (one offensive, one defensive) simply bounce off of his hands down the stretch. He’s never been a fantastic player, and he had decent numbers (11 & 8), but they seem more like empty calories than ever before. In his ESPN chat today, Chad Ford said, “…And I think the Pacers have to start thinking about dumping Troy Murphy. He’s unhappy sharing minutes with Hansbrough and has been sulking a bit. Given that Murphy does two things (rebound and shoot threes) that could help a myriad of playoff teams, I think the Pacers could get something decent in return.” Now, I don’t see any real evidence of Troy sulking, but I have no inside access, either. You have to wonder what, if any, source Ford has for this info. If the Pacers could find a taker for Troy willing to send back expiring contracts, the much needed cap relief would make it awfully tempting to pull the trigger and move forward with the younger bigs (Hibbert, Hansbrough, and Solo).
  • Buckaroo Banzai (Tyler Hansbrough, for the uncouth and unitiated) had another nice showing.  The final line shows 10 points, 4 boards, and a block in 15 minutes. The highlight play was a rebound and stuff that cut the deficit to 97-92 late in the third, but that was not his most impressive moment. In the first half, he had two very nice post moves, and the game seems to be slowing down for him. Given the fact that the guy missed all of training camp and preseason, you have to be pleased with his first eight games.
  • The relationship between T.J. Ford and Jim O’Brien is going to be something to watch closely.  Ford scored 16 on 6 of 10 shooting tonight, but he was lethargic in the first half. More troubling, he got an earful from O’Brien in the 4th for putting no effort into fighting over a screen, which resulted in Jarrett Jack hitting a big three-pointer. O’Brien immediately called for Watson, but there was no stoppage of play that would allow for the substitution. Shortly thereafter, there was an animated conversation between Ford (on the court) and O’Brien (on the sideline). Ford continued to make his point after O’Brien apparently lost interest in the conversation, turning and walking away.
  • The former Pacers on the Raptors killed Indiana tonight. Jarrett Jack broke out of a prolonged shooting slump by hitting all seven of his shots, including three from behind the line. He added 6 assists to his 18 points. Though I hate the success was against the Pacers, I always liked JJ, and I’m glad to see him have some. Rasho’s game, on the other hand, rankled. Considering the fact that Nesterovic spent the last half of last season in Indiana doing a stunningly accurate impression of a corpse, imagine my surprise when he hung 12 points and 7 boards on the Pacers in his 16 minutes of play. Now, he did have some quality games for the Pacers early in the season last year, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for the time being. However, if he’s still producing come April, then I’m going to take to heart all of the rumors that he basically mailed in last season because he didn’t want to be in Indy, and consider him a douche bag.

Other items of note: The Pacers bench was outscored by the Raptor’s bench 50-34…After a crappy offensive 1st half, the Pacers scored 39 points in the third, posting an Offensive Rating for the period of over 150 and an eFG% of .708…For the game, the Pacers’ Offensive Rating was 114.3, their second best outing of the year, but the Defensive Rating of 125.5 was the worst of the season…Dahntay Jones scored 12 points off the bench in 27 minutes. The playing time is over 7 minutes below his  season’s average…Brandon Rush (@KCsFinest09) tweeted this afternoon, “Coach is gonna try to kill us today n practice. We got our ass chewed out n film.” For all the good it did.

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Game #12 Preview – Our Resistable Force Meets Their Movable Object

by Tim Donahue on November 24, 2009 at 12:10 pm · 5 comments

Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors
Air Canada Centre
Toronto, Ontario
7:00 PM EST

Pacers vs. Raptors
5-6 (8th) Record 6-8 (9th)
Lost 3 Streak Lost 1
-1.45 (16th) Avg Scoring Margin -1.57 (17th)
98.7 (18th) Points Per Game 106.3 (4th)
101.9 (25th) Offensive Rating 114.7 (1st)
103.4 (10th) Defensive Rating 116.4 (30th)
.476 (24th) eFG% .521 (5th)
.471 (3rd) Opponent's eFG% .517 (24th)
96.9 (2nd) Pace 92.6 (15th)

Glossary: Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | eFG% | Pace

It’s shaping up to be a very odd season for your boys in Blue & Gold.  Thus far, they’ve sandwiched two three-game losing streaks around one five-game winning streak. Tonight, they open a back-to-back in Toronto trying to keep the second losing streak from reaching four.  Whip-lashed Pacer fans are understandably unsure of what to expect.

If you’re hoping I’m going to make you feel better, you’re going to be sorely disappointed. Looking at all 11 games as a whole, the most consistent themes were not positive ones.

  • Quality of Opponents – Of the five wins the Pacers have this season, only one (Boston) was against a winning team. The other four teams have a combined 10-40 record.  The first three-game losing streak came against teams with a combined 28-12 record, so that’s not alarming.  The current one includes an embarrassing loss to the then 1-9 Knicks at Conseco, and Sunday’s blowout loss to Charlotte, ending the BobKitties seven game losing streak.
  • Lost Quarters – Last season, the Pacers scored 20 points or fewer in only 60 of the 328 regulation quarters they played, or about 18%. This season, they’ve scored 20 or less in 13 of their 44 quarters, or about 30%. Here’s are some of the most damaging quarters:

Game 1 @ Atlanta – Entered the fourth trailing by 1, get outscored 25-15 and lost by 11.

Game  2 vs. Miami – A 16-point first quarter puts the Pacers down 12 entering the second. A strong second quarter leaves the Pacers down two at the half, but a matching 16-point third gives Miami a 16-point lead, and they cruise to a 13-point win.

Game 3 vs. Denver – Outscored 30-13 in the first quarter of what turns out to be an 18-point loss.

Game 8 @ New Jersey – The Pacers keep New Jersey in the game with a dreadful 13-point third quarter. Only the Nets inherent incompetence keeps them from capitalizing, as the winless host only scores 14 for the quarter.

Game 9 vs. New York – The Pacers post twin 17-point quarters in the third and fourth, allowing a 15-point halftime lead to morph into a 7-point loss to a 1-9 team on the Pacers’ home floor.

Game 10 vs. Cleveland – The Pacers are outscored 28-13 in the fourth, turning a 5-point lead into a 10-point loss.

  • Clang – The Pacers currently rank 24th in the league at eFG% at .476.  Their 3-point shooting has been an abysmal .303 (26th), while hoisting almost 20 per night. They have shot below 33% from beyond the arc 9 times this year, including five times below 25%. Last season, they only had six games all year where they failed to eclipse the 1-in-4 standard.
  • Offensive Impotence - The Pacers currently rank 25th in Offensive Efficiency, scoring a scant 101.9 points per 100 possessions.  This would represent the lowest offensive output for the Pacers since 1984 (that team won 26 games).  It’s worse even than Rick Carlisle’s final year, when the team finished dead last in Offense.  They’ve been held under 1 point per possession in four of their 11 games, compared to only 12 of their 82 games last season.
  • Worrisome Four Factors numbers – Even during their winning streak, they were not a statistically strong team. Dean Oliver’s Four Factors of Winning focus on Shooting, Turnovers, Rebounding, and Free Throws. There is a set for Offense and a set for Defense. If you combine the Pacers rankings in all of the factors, you’ll see that the Pacers are a below average offensive team and an average defensive team.  This was true even during the winning streak.  Historically, teams performing at the Pacers’ level will be anchored to the 36-win level, plus or minus five games. Given that their offense is trending downward, the Pacers are very much in danger of underperforming the historical win average.

I’m sure you’ll notice that the focus above is primarily offense. That’s because it’s the offense (or lack thereof) that is going to kill this team’s playoff chances this year. I realize that all the cool kids focus on defense, and yes, the defense has had it’s hiccups, but overall it’s fine. However, there are two ends to the court, and they’re pretty much equally important. More to the point, an incompetent offense puts the team’s defense at a huge disadvantage.

Defensively, the Pacers need to maintain their FG defense, which sits third best in the league at .471. They need to improve on their DefRB%, which is a middling .737, good for 15th out of 30 in the league. However, it will be very hard to do these things  if the opponent continues to get offensive opportunities off of Pacer missed shots and turnovers.

More importantly, if the Pacers remain in the bottom third 0f both offensive eFG% and Offensive Efficiency, their chances of contending for a playoff spot will be greatly damaged.  Since 1980, slight fewer than 1 in 4 teams in the bottom third for eFG% managed to meet or beat .500. The teams in this grouping averaged only 31 wins, and 146 of 254 won the equivalent of 30 or fewer games. Fewer than 1 in 5 teams finishing in the bottom third for Offensive Efficiency were at or above .500. This group averaged only 30 wins, and 123 of 255 won the equivalent of 30 or fewer games.

At some point in time, the Pacers are going to have to stop bringing knives to these gunfights. If they do it again tonight, it’s going to get real ugly real quick.

The Raptors, on the other hand, have no problems whatsoever offensively. They bring a league best 114.7 Offensive Efficiency into tonight’s game, along with an eFG% of .521. Unfortunately for them, they also bring a league worst 116.4 Defensive Efficiency. This largely explains their 6-8 record.

The question is whether the Pacers offense is even capable of taking advantage of Toronto’s porous defense. If you find yourself watching the Pacers at the offensive end and screaming “Somebody move!”, it’s not going to be a promising outcome for the good guys. Put simply, the defense will do well to keep the Raptors at or below their average of 106 points tonight. If the offense doesn’t make a showing, it will be over quickly.

Chris Bosh is putting up MVP numbers, averaging 26 & 12, which drives a PER of just over 30. The #1 pick from the 2006 draft, Andrea Bargnani, has emerged as a solid scorer, posting just under 18 per night.  It’s the presence of these two agile bigs that has prompted Jim O’Brien to replace Roy Hibbert in the line up with Jeff Foster. Bargnani shoots almost 42% for treys, and takes just about a third of his 14 shots per night from there.

Big name free agent acquisition Hedo Turkoglu has been lackluster thus far this season, posting a slightly below average PER of 14.5. Former Pacer Jarrett Jack has struggled mightily, shooting only 37%, and Rasho Nesterovic has only been used sparingly.

Items of Note: Foster and Murphy are expected to join Ford, Rush, and Granger in tonight’s starting lineup…If you’re looking for a lot of Roy, consider this quote from O’Brien: “We can’t play Roy much unless they play Amir Johnson or (Rasho) Nesterovic,” O’Brien said. “We’ll start Jeff at center because we’re quicker and able to guard their pick-and-rolls.”…Watch Danny away from the ball. If he’s standing around (which he’s prone to do), then the entire offense stagnates around him…Pay close attention to times when Murphy and Hansbrough are on the floor together.  O’Brien likes the pairing, so if the Pacers struggle at those times, it could be cause for concern for the balance of the year.

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