From the monthly archives:

December 2009

O RLY? Brandon Rush

by Jared Wade on December 31, 2009 at 2:20 pm · 0 comments

Brandon Rush Pacers Quote

The above quote comes from the Yahoo! Sports Indiana Pacers homepage, where they always include an new interesting player/coach sentiment every day. It’s a nice little feature and one that I probably shouldn’t be talking about so nicely given my ESPN affiliations. Hopefully, Goofy is off drinking at his New Year’s party and will never see this post.

Anyway …

We’re settling for a lot of jump shots instead of taking it to the hole.” – Swingman Brandon Rush.

WE’RE“?!?!?!

That’s a pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty bold card for you to be playing, Brandon. Because all it takes is one quick look at Hoopdata’s handy-dandy shot locations chart for Rush to find out that he is one of the largest contributors to this phenomenon. (See the slightly modified-for-size screenshot below for data.)

So far in 2009-10, Brandon has taken 5.9 FGAs per game from outside of 10 feet compared to just 1.9 FGAs per game from 10 feet and closer. And not only is his number of attempts from close range lower than last years 2.2 per game (which came in 3.5 fewer minutes per game, by the way), but his shooting percentage this season from 10 feet and out is lower across the board than last year. (41% vs. 32% from 10-15 feet, 40% vs. 38% from 16-23 feet, and 37% vs. 34% — or 56% vs. 51% in eFG% terms — from three.)

When you also factor in that Brandon is one of the few people on this roster who actually has the quickness, size and ball-handling ability to drive to the hoop and score … maybe you might just wanna stop talking for a while.

I mean, I’m one of the worst “Do as a I say, not as I do” hypocrites you’ll ever meet. But even I wouldn’t tell my teammates that they should be driving more when I’m just standing around chucking terrible jumpshots.

brandon rush shot locations

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Other People’s Thoughts on Pacers/Grizz

by Jared Wade on December 31, 2009 at 12:45 pm · 0 comments

While reading some other recaps of last night’s games, I’ve come across two other pronouncements that really hit the mark perfectly and will help balance the mild cheerfulness that I somehow managed last night.

The first comes from the stellar Grizzlies blog Straight Outta Vancouver and really goes to show how far the Pacers have fallen.

If there’s one sign that your team is moving up in the world, it’s when you start getting the mail-in victories.

The Grizzlies played a Pacers team last night that didn’t not have a single NBA starting caliber player, unless you count T.J. Ford or Dahntay Jones, and picked up the win. But, and this is a big qualifier, they also managed to give up 110 points to their opponent, a team that, at least on paper, is probably more than a little offensively challenged.

Can you blame Luther Head scoring 30 points on highly efficient shooting to anything besides the Grizzlies just planning on outscoring their opponents? If O.J. Mayo and Mike Conley’s defense wasn’t so bad regularly, I’d say there is no other reason than laziness.

Can’t argue with that at all.

Even more disturbing-yet-predictable-and-on-point is today’s take on the Pacers from Ball Don’t Lie’s Kelly Dwyer, who literally watches as many NBA basketball games as anyone on this planet.

The Pacers were led by Roy Hibbert’s 25 and 13, but most of his points came way, way too late. I’d call this team “on the verge of collapse” had they not already collapsed about a week or two ago.

Pretty much.

Its an 8-game losing streak, folks. There’s very little to talk positively about right now.

pacers collapse

I’m working on a new book. Whaddya think?

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Pacers vs. Grizzlies
110 Score 121
1 Largest Lead 24
110.0 Offensive Efficiency 121.0
52.2% eFG% 54.1%
48.3% (43/89) FG% 50.6% (43/85)
29.2% (7/24) 3PT% 54.5% (6/11)
77.3% (17/22) FT% 82.9% (29/35)
41 (15) Rebounds (Off.) 37 (9)
18 (23) Turnovers (Points Led To) 15 (22)
64 Points in the Paint 48
17 Fast Break Points 19
21 Assists 19

Post-Game Essentials: Box Score | PM Game Flow | Play-By-Play | Shot Chart | Behind the Box Score | Indy Star Recap | Cornrows Recap | AP Recap | Pacer’s Digest Post Game

Shocker. Pacers got off to a poor start.

As far as positives to kick things off, Dahntay Jones was key early, getting to the hoop for a power dunk and a nice drive that ended in an impressive little opposite-hand, flip-shot layup. Him and Solomon Jones (no relation) were really the only things going for Indy in the first few minutes, as they combined to score 10 of the team’s first 12 points. Still, after weathering that initial drought while relying entirely on the law firm of Jones, Jones & Solomon, the rest of the Pacers did eventually show up, scoring on 4 of their next 7 possessions and, later, finishing off the quarter with a 9-0 run.

For once, it wasn’t the offensive execution or even the good ol’ fashioned open shot-making that was the problem. They scored enough in the first quarter to stay competitive and the offense was, by and large, fine. OK, the 5 first-quarter turnovers definitely directly led to some easy transition buckets for Memphis and that certainly gave the young, athletic Grizzly wing players a nearly tangible confidence injection.

But, really, it was the defense that opened the unsealable floodgates and prevented this game from ever being close.

The Pacers couldn’t contest jumpers and, while the Dahntay-at-PF thing did lead to him scoring 8 quick points, he was clearly overmatched down low by Zach Randolph, who scored three times from within 10 feet in the opening quarter — including a dunk. (For those of you unfamiliar with how infrequently Z-Bo actually dunks, it’s essentially a Halley’s Comet-level event — something the reactions of his former Knick teammates can attest to.)

Marc Gasol took advantage of the soft interior as well, going to the line early and often. Just 16 minutes into the game, Pau’s brother had already tallied 12 points, 6 boards and 7 free-throw attempts. And with the middle caving in quicker than a Death Star trash compacter, OJ Mayo, Mike Conley and Rudy Gay had all the time they needed to stick jumper after jumper after jumper, combining to hit five outside shots for 12 points in just the first 8 minutes.

The second quarter wasn’t much better defensively and the Pacers offense couldn’t hold up its end either, going on one of its patented 1-FG-in-5-minutes stretches. But, again, it was ultimately a defensive failure that left them down by 17 at the half with no real hope of slowing down a Memphis squad that put up 68 points in the first half.

The second half, while never close and essentially more of the same on defense, did prove surprisingly interesting, however.

And it was entirely due to the play of Roy Hibbert — who owned the third quarter and finished the game with a career high 25 points — and Luther Head — who owned the fourth quarter and ended up tying his career high with 30 points.

Hibbert dominated the paint after checking in 4 minutes into the half. He relied on his increasingly reliable hook shot and some power moves down low to drop 12 third-quarter points that came largely on the strength of 6 FTAs — 2 of which came on and-ones. He showed little indecision and made a few calculated moves that the guy guarding him could simply not handle. It was Roy at his best and hopefully something he can duplicate more often in the future. The last time he looked so good on the block was against the Spurs and that was, what, two weeks ago now?

But while watching Roy go to work down low may have been the most impressive and silver-liningy aspect of the game, Luther put on an even better show.

Head scored his 30 on just 19 shots and poured in his 15 fourth-quarter points with such flair that he may have nearly tricked any viewers who were still in the building/awake into thinking that Indy might feign a final comeback push. Obviously, most of us didn’t fall for his three-pointer- and ball-handling-fueled ruse, knowing that the Pacers would be incapable of stopping Memphis on the other end on this night.

But we shouldn’t let Luther’s outburst be deemed inconsequential just because it didn’t ultimately change the outcome. His efforts led to what I’m just going to presume without researching is the highest-scoring quarter any Pacer not named Danny Granger has had this season. On December 30, in this offense, after this many games of offensive futility, with this many players seemingly so content with just standing around the perimeter doing nothing, a guy putting the onus on himself to put points on the board by any means necessary is not just notable — it’s deserving of the Nobel.

OK … I fully understand that in a game that was this ugly and was never in doubt for the Grizzlies despite being played in Indiana, it’s hard to get too excited about anything. I get it. This thing was gross and this team is really, really bad.

But a night that featured two of the nicer individual offensive performances of the year and — for once — showcased an overall team statistical offensive performance that was uncharacteristically not bile-inducing is at least better than another 42% shooting night where the team scores in the low 90s.

Yes, the Pacers just lost their 8th game in a row. And, yes, this is the worst losing streak of Jim O’Brien’s tenure and the longest overall winless stretch since the 2006-07 season. So, ultimately, nothing in Pacer land is great. Hell, nothing is even good. I’m totally with you on that point.

But we’re Pacers fans, people. We need to take what we can at this point.

And what I do know is that the offense has been the main culprit in most of the other 22 Indy defeats so far this year. So I’m less worried about an off night for a defense that has otherwise been at least par for the league most of the time. That should come back around, theoretically, and if the team can mount an offensive effort like they had tonight — you know, one where a few guys step up and put it on themselves to carry the water rather than just expecting every member of the team to passively jumpshoot their way into 11 points — alongside even an average defensive effort then … well, ladies and gentlemen … we might just have ourselves a .400 ball club on our hands.

Dream big, people. Dream big.

Five Other Things

(1) Luther shot 4/6 from three and Brandon went 3/7. The rest of the team shot 0/11 from behind the arc. (Watson: 0/4, AJ Price: 0/4, MDJ: 0/3)

(2) Jamaal Tinsley’s return to Conseco was fairly uneventful: 15 minutes, 3 points (1/3 FGs), 1 assist, 2 boards, 2 steals, 3 turnovers and 1 Fieldhouse full of boos when he entered the game in the first quarter. By contrast, the night of the Pacers highest profile PG since Jamaal last played was even less eventful: TJ Ford played just 9 minutes — and none in the 2nd half.

(3) Mike Dunleavy, Jr. hasn’t shot above 40% from the field since December 18 (which was coincidentally the last time Indy played Memphis). And he hasn’t looked particularly great within the offense even while missing shots. I mean, he still has a much, much better understanding of offensive basketball than any other healthy player on the team, so he definitely still contributes a lot of positives in terms of ball movement, strong-side/weak-side positioning and all that stuff. But he’s not doing anything for the box score, and he looks tired. Might be time to give him a night off. Indy plays the Wolves twice in the next four games, so one of those may be a night where he can sit and the team can still have a shot at a win.

(4) Considering that Coach O’Brien seems to be just raffling off starter roles in a bingo hall before the game at this point (tonight was Luther’s first start as a Pacer and Solomon made his second start), Josh McRoberts probably deserves a crack. He’s catching alley-oops from Earl Watson like they’re Tyson Chandler and Chris Paul circa 2008, so — at worst — maybe an early dunk in the next game can give the team a Redbull-like lift and wake everyone from thier collective first-quarter coma.

I highlight the dunks because they are, well, highlights, but he has been doing a lot of other good stuff in terms of making the right pass, executing the pick-and-roll properly as the screener and generally just playing the right way, as our old friend Larry Brown would say. Particularly if Troy and/or Tyler can’t go against the Wolves on Saturday, I think it’s best to scrap the Dahntay Jones at power forward idea.

I’m not saying it is in and of itself a terrible idea — hell, this whole rotation of ineffectiveness has basically become an exercise in throwing spaghetti at the wall, right, so what’s the harm in getting weird? But after watching Randolph/Gasol chew up the interior right out of the gates, it’s pretty difficult to think the result will be different against Al Jefferson and Kevin Love. And since both of those guys are poor defenders at best, the chance of Josh catching an alley-oop in the opening minutes while one of them is blowing an assignment sounds pretty high. Honestly, watching him dunk while sporting that haircut is one of the few joys I have left in my Pacer-watching life.

FREE THE FIFTH BEATTLE.

(5) Brandon Rush looked above-average offensively out there for the first time since, roughly, I dunno, Bill Clinton’s second term as president? Nice shooting, buddy. Hit a few shots in a game like eight more times, start getting to the free throw line more than once a night, make a free throw more than once every other night and perhaps I’ll start taking you more seriously on offense than a traffic cone.

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Good Will Hunting Equation

When is it hot shooting and when is it bad defense?

Overall last night, the Bulls shot 53% from the floor with an eFG% of about 57%. But, as I tweeted last night, I wanted to look at the XeFG% for the teams, because I thought there was a whole lot of settling.

(Explanatory note: XeFG% is short for “expected effective field goal percentage,” which measures the “expected effectiveness of a team’s shot distribution, assuming they shoot league average percentages from every area on the floor.” Basically, different areas of the floor have different levels of effectiveness. For example, dunks/layups are the best to take, corner threes are the second best and midrange jumpers from 16-23 feet are the worst. So if you look at, say, the XeFG% of the Bulls 3PT% last night and see that they shot way better than league average from that distance, they likely either (a) got and made a lot of open threes, or (b) were extra hot from long-range and made a lot of well-contested threes. Also, you can look around on HoopData.com for more fun with XeFG%.)

For the Pacers, it wasn’t all that bad. Their XeFG% was 49.0%, and the league average is 49.5%, so it’s not like they were jacking up an abnormal amount of bad shots (leaving aside the fact that almost all Pacer shots are bad). But they ended up at shooting 46.6% for the game, so they were pretty inaccurate. Every team has bad shooting nights, so this in and of itself isn’t revelatory.

However, last night they weren’t any more inaccurate than usual, unfortunately. Using their YTD numbers, their XeFG% was .469, which will tell you how far below average they are as a shooting team.

Meanwhile, the Bulls took an insane 53% of their shots from 16-23 feet, which is the least effective range.  Using league averages, their XeFG% was 45.3%. Using Chicago’s YTD shooting averages, their XeFG% was 41.9%. Meaning they shot about 12 percentage points above the expected league average, and 15 percentage points above what even they would normally do.

So, in a game decided by 9 points, the Pacers submitted their typical shooting performance from the floor on pretty reasonable shot selection, and gave away 4 points to the league average.  Meanwhile, Chicago’s shot selection was an opposing coach’s wet dream, but they managed to pick up 21 points against the league average (and 25 against their own standard) simply by hitting shots.

So, is this a function of “Pretty much everybody in the NBA can shoot, so if you give them uncontested jumpers, they’ll hit them,” or “As poorly as the Pacers played, Chicago would lose with that shot selection way more often than they win?”  Hard to tell, but probably some of both.

More importantly, it underscores the crucial nature of being able to hit shots.

For all of the “there’s no hustle” and “the team has quit” and “Jim O’Brien is evil” stuff we hear from fans, what’s really making this team bad-to-hopeless instead the marginally mediocre squad that we all expected them to be is painfully simple.

They.

Just.

Can’t.

Shoot.

To be a top team, you need to be able to do more than just shoot, but it is next to impossible to even compete if you can’t shoot.

Consider the following chart:

wpctvsefg

I took all of the teams since 1980, and ranked them based on their eFG%, put them into “rank buckets” where all the Top 5 eFG% teams get Bucket One, the 6th-10th eFG% teams are in Bucket Two, etc. (The earlier years when the NBA had fewer than 30 teams were prorated to match a 30-team rank scale). Then I charted the calculated the combined winning percentage of all the teams in each bucket and plotted them on the graph above.

The 2009-10 Pacers currently rank 26th in the NBA in eFG%, which puts them in the lowest group. Since 1980, there were 140 teams that finished in this “bottom bucket” during this time period, and that collective of poor eFG% shooting teams posted a combined winning percentage of only .315. This is the rough equivalent of 26 wins over an 82-game season.  Only 11 (8%) of these teams managed to post a winning record.  Meanwhile, 95 (68%) finished with 30 wins or fewer, and 75 (53%) finished with 25 wins or fewer.

A healthy, vintage ’08-09 Danny would help, but not enough to get them to the playoffs. Even before the season, I was afraid that the offense would drop off this year, but I never could have imagined how bad it has become.

Now, granted, even if they could shoot, they still wouldn’t be athletic enough to deal with teams like the Hawks. But if this team could just match last year’s shooting (which wasn’t outlandish with an eFG% of 50.1%, which was just above the league average of 50.0%), they would score 5.2 more PPG. Add in the fact that they’re down from 81% to 76% at the line, and that’s another 1.2 points.

OK … So their shot selection is poor and their XeFG% overall is only about 48.6%. Thus, let’s bring ‘em back to earth and say that it would be more like a total uptick of 4-5 points per game. That doesn’t make them contenders, but it probably gets them closer to .500 — maybe 13-17 or 14-16.

The problem is, what the hell do you do to fix it?

Even if they had better shot selection, that would probably only account for 1/3 of their scoring problem. What do you do when you’re players can’t hit shots (and the opponent knows it)?

Change the offense? Trade for a play-maker? Have more shootarounds? Don’t play players battling injury? Just bite down on the stick and grit it out until 2011?

Leftovers:

  • The Pacers rank 25th in FG% at the rim, and 22nd in eFG% from beyond the arc.  These are the two most important and most productive areas of the floor.
  • Tyler Hansbrough shoots only 52.0% at the rim, which is well below the league average of 60.4%.  Unfortunately, Mike Dunleavy (51.0%) and Brandon Rush (49.0%) are worse. (So’s McBob, but he’s only had 4 attempts).  (Yes…that’s right.  If Brandon has a dunk or a layup, it’s less than a 50-50 proposition.)
  • The ’09-10 Pacers have improved their defensive efficiency by about 3.5% since last year, which is roughly twice the league-wide improvement. And they’ve improved their defensive eFG% over last season by 3.2%, which is about 3 times the league-wide improvement. Unfortunately, their offensive efficiency in ’09-10 has dropped by a staggering 7.7% — or more than 4 times the league average. This is also more than twice the team’s defensive improvement. The shooting is also predictably worse, and accounts for the bulk of the overall decline in offensive efficiency. Their eFG% got worse by 6.5%, which would be 6 times the league-wide decline.
  • As I type this, I’m watching the Pacers fall behind 66-47 to the Griz on at Conseco.  The shooting hasn’t been horrible, but dry spells have led to the Memphis spurts.  More to the point, it reminds me that I should probably do one of these things on Turnovers.  But I’m going to need to get drunk first.

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