From the monthly archives:

January 2010

Going Small?

by Jared Wade on January 26, 2010 at 10:39 pm · 3 comments

These days, it’s usually more of a news story when the Paces keep the same starters two games in a row than it is when they try a new starting lineup. So why should the 17th new starting lineup of the year be any more newsworthy than the 16th?

Well, the “small ball” starting lineup employed yesterday (Earl Watson, Luther Head, Brandon Rush, Danny Granger and Troy Murphy) feels a little more significant for two reasons. The first is that it was effective in the sense that the Pacers won and, thus, we will probably see if more often. The second is that with the Lakers (Bynum and Gasol) and the Cavs (Shaq, Big Z, Varejao, Hickson) both coming to town this week, Coach O’Brien might not be able to lean on it as much as he would otherwise like to in the next two games.

Regardless of the short-term realities, it seems that the Coach is smitten. Tom Lewis of Indy Cornrows breaks it down.

Not only did JOB start small, he stayed “small” all game long, never playing Roy Hibbert and Troy Murphy at the same time and utilizing the extra wing player for all 48 minutes. The end result was net positive as the Pacers overcame a slow start and early 11-point deficit to continue attacking in the second half and notch a second-straight road win, 109-98. With the win to build on, the small lineup appears here to stay.

“In regards to small vs. big lineup the margin is over +320 (favoring small) for the year. We’ll go with it for as many games as we can, as long as we can because that’s our best lineup,” JOB told reporters after the game.

So what took so long?

Dahntay Jones, who had what was arguably his best game since November last night, might be asking that same question and he seems to be a fan of how going small helps the team run and create match-up problems.

“We can cause matchup problems with our small lineup,” Dahntay Jones said. “The tempo changes when we have the small lineup. Everybody runs. Then they have to find out who they’re going go guard. Who’s their big man going to guard? And we take advantage of that. It’s been a weapon of ours in the past, and I’m glad we got back to it.”

Troy couldn’t argue with the results either, although he sounds a little more skeptical of whether or not it will always work — or perhaps he just has no interest in trying to bang with Bynum and Shaq over the next two games?

“It works against a team like that,” Troy Murphy said. “They’re a team that runs up and down. Against some of the bigger teams, we may struggle. We may do well. It worked well for us tonight.”

We’ll see tomorrow whether or not Jim is enamored enough with wee ball to see if it can work against the big, long champs. But expect to see more of it in the weeks to come.

Space Jam Monstars

Michael Jordan isn’t walking through that door, but the Coach thinks going small might be the most effective way for this Pacers roster to win.

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Game #45 Recap: Sunny in Philadelphia

by Jared Wade on January 26, 2010 at 7:23 pm · 0 comments

Indiana Pacers 109, Philadelphia 76ers 98

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In lieu of the old familiar, game-story-style recap, we’re just going with some game notes today. So you don’t get bored, we try to mix it up. DJ Pauly D style on the ones and two.

Beatin’ up the beat. Pure creep mode.

But let’s just get down to the biz-ness.

snoop-dawg-mike-tyson-jersey-shore-cast

Game Notes

1st Quarter

O’Brien went with Watson, Head, Rush, Granger and Murphy to start? Have we seen that one before? No … I don’t think we have. You know what that means? Starting lineup number 18 number 17. *blue lights start flashing and confetti falls from the ceiling* Looks like you guys are our secret shoppers. Tell em what they’ve won, Chuck.

Danny just took a really terrible running bank shot that missed badly. But at least it was a bad shot from 12 feet instead of 28. Progress

The Pacers tried and failed to find Danny for like 10 seconds while he had AI sealed on the block. But the possession still led to a slick crossover by Brandon Rush who got all the way to the cup on a drive that he finished plus the harm, so it’s all good. Sorta. Either way, nice to see Brandon being aggressive off the dribble. Especially this early.

Troy Murphy just set a nice pick on a left-wing screen/roll with Luther Head. Luther’s guy was late to recover, and he got by him with a nice hesitation dribble that he took all the way to the rim for an easy layup. What’s going on? Penetrators? On the Pacers? I don’t know about this, guys. Seems like a risky strategy. Worth a shot though, I guess.

Roy just checked in and quickly got his first touch on the block. He tried his “Screw a post move — I’m just going right through this little guy” move, which he has been employing with increasing frequency. It didn’t work this time, as he missed a little half hook, but he got his own board. And he missed the follow up attempt, which was frustrating, but he still battled for the offensive board yet again — enough so to draw a (dubious) loose ball foul on Brand. Nothing came out of that either, as MDJ missed a jumper after the inbounds pass. This all probably sounds bad. But the takeaway is that Roy came into the game after 9 minutes sitting on the bench and immediately played about as aggressively as you’ll ever see him play. That’s a good thing.

About two minutes later, Hibbert caught a pass mid-paint about 3 feet from the hoop while flashing and effortlessly hooked one in for a deuce. No hesitation at all. Nice.

AJ Price checked in and just got really badly embarrassed by Allen Iverson on his first possession. AI has been killing it anyway with 4 FGs and 4 assists, which means he has been responsible for 8 of the Philly’s first 12 FGs, but this one was classic Answer. He crossed up AJ like he was still at Georgetown. Philly’s broadcasters on AJ’s first possession on the court: “Iverson greets him rather rudely.”

After one quarter, the Pacers trailed 25-29. They played really bad defense, but at least they scored for a change.

2nd Quarter

Hibbert got deep post position again and made an easy-as-your-mom-on-Sunday-morning hook.

Roy followed that up by allowing two straight little men to make layups right in his grill. Poor perimeter defense let them get through, it should also be noted.

….and he followed that up with an 18-foot jumper. Say what you want about the guy’s overall effectiveness early on, but he certainly has been involved.

Wow. Marreese Speights just squashed whatever was left of AJ’s manhood post-AI cross when he Dwight Howarded his layup attempt out onto I-95.

AJ apparently didn’t much care about his earlier emasculation and just drilled a three. That kid is aggressive. The Pacers predictably gave those three points right back on the ensuing possession when Wilie Green his a trey, which made Philly 5/5 from the field in the quarter. “Sixers having their way with the Pacers on both ends,” says the Philly announcer. No word on whether or not the double entendre was intended.

Philly CSN’s sideline reporter Jamie Maggio looks like she’s on the way to the club right after this game. Sweet sequins.

Dahntay Jones inexplicably just took over the game for like 2 minutes on both ends. First, he found a cutting Granger under the hoop for a lay-in, then he hit a jumper, then he forced a turnover by pulling the chair on a posting-up Thaddeus Young and then he fed Watson under the hoop on a mini-fast-break. Watson not-so-uncharacteristically missed the gimme, but Murphy was there for the tip-in, so Dahntay’s nice look didn’t go for not.

Back-to-back Rush and Granger treys cut Philly’s lead to 1. Could be a turning point. Working on at least half of all cylinders right now.

AI returned and immediately got Thad Young a wide-open look with a behind-the-back pass on a pick-and-pop. That was his 5th assist. Double-double?

Jrue Holiday, who looks like he’s wearing an eye patch given the giant bandaid that’s covering the 12 eyebrow stitches he got after diving on the floor on Saturday night, just threw an entry pass to a cutting Igoudala that exposed just how horribly out of position and/or athletically outmatched MDJ was/is in that matchup. After the catch, Iggy turned and scored easier than I could against my coffee table.

A Danny jumper with under a minute to play in the half pulled the Pacers within 2 and gave Granger 18 for the half on 7/11 shooting (3/4 from three) to go along with 5 boards. Nice little 24 minutes at the office the BatCave.

Half time.

Here’s what happened in the first two quarters:

pacers 76ers first half

3rd Quarter

A couple minutes into the second half, Murphy hit a trey from … wait for it … the top of the key to put Indy up 2 for their first lead of the game.

Luther Head tried a delayed alley-oop to Brandon on a 2-on-1 break after a steal, but it was a bad/unnecessary pass that Rush had no chance at really getting. Brandon grabbed it eventually but stepped out for the re-turnover. Next time down, Head launched a 28-footer with 20 seconds still on the shot clock. Philly color commentator: “WOW. Head’s really got the green light here.” Philly play-by-play guy: “I think everyone does. Remember O’Brien from his one year here?”

Murphy made a terrible turnover and tried to save it while it was going out. He threw it back inbounds and it caromed off one guy and drilled AI in square in his mug. The Philly announcer was like “He took it right in THE FACE” and then said something else I didn’t catch exactly but ended the sentence “IN THE FAAAACE” like Rob Riggle in The Hangover after the stun gun scene. IN. THE. FAAAAACE. I’m currently enjoying the surprisingly good announcers whose names I will not look up more so that the game play here — probably because I’m way to keenly aware of the DWade/LeBron shootout going on on the other channel that I would rather be watching.

Roy went right at Samuel Dalembert on his first post look of the half. Totally overpowered Sammy backing it down, turning and hooking it in. Hibbert has looked dominant so far in limited touches this evening.

Philly just had one of the ugliest possessions I’ve seen in a long time. Iggy dribbled around all ring-around-the-rosy style while a couple of Pacers chased him around Benny Hill style and the others crowded the paint. Andre missed a terrible, off-balance shot from 4 feet, a Sixer grabbed the offensive board in the scrum then got pushed and threw a 40-foot cross-court kick-out pass that was stolen by Dahntay Jones, who dribbled awkwardly up the floor before getting hammered at midcourt. The whole thing looked like two girls JV basketball teams trying to chase a butterfly.

4th Quarter

Granger finally recorded his 22nd point on a nice drive. He had 18 at the half. I missed his 19th and 20th points but my expert sleuthing tells me they came in the 3rd quarter.

Philly just had its best offensive possession in a while with some stellar ball movement that featured three passes around the perimeter and resulted in a wide-open three in the corner. Luckily, Young Thad couldn’t make it. Sucka.

MDJ has been relatively irrelevant most of this game but we just got a key reminder that he is still the team’s best entry passer — by far. Showed great patience there on the re-post of Hibbert on Brand. MDJ threw it in. Roy kicked it out. MDJ bought some time. Then threw it back in. No one else on the team would wait for that.

Whoa. Dunleavy followed that up with great defense on Young Thad in the post. He’s starting to do the lil things that Lil Dun does.

For an example of a terrible entry pass, look no further than that last one thrown by AJ to Dahntay. Made him move 5 feet to catch it.

Stats say Brandon Rush finishes 50% of shots at the rim, which is an embarrassingly low total. I say “No way it’s that high” after he got swatted badly on a layup attempt that should have been an uneventful dunk. Tim Donahue says: “That…that right there is what’s wrong with Brandon in a microcosm.”

A Granger/Murphy top-of-the-key PnR led to a nice Murphy lay-in at the hoop after he slipped the screen. Next play, they went right back to it, Murphy slipped the screen again and Danny dribbled hard right twice and pulled up for a 17-footer. All twine. Perhaps try this play more often.

With the Pacers up 3 with 3 minutes to play, Dahntay Jones just scored beautifully in the post. (Wait? What happened? No way.) Next trip down, Dahntay hit a baseline 12-footer and got fouled. Three-point play. (I don’t believe you.) Yes. That happened. (Stop talking to yourself.) You’re not the boss of me.

Danny got Brand to switch over on him on the perimeter. Stared him down in an iso. Dribbled twice. Then settled for a pull-up fadeaway. It made me want to punch a baby. No, strike that. Babies. Luckily, Murphy got a hand on the offensive board and batted it out safely to the perimeter for the offense to set back up. All this led to a Rush trey in the corner. All net. All Indy. Pacers up 7.

That’ll do it.

Pacers W.

indy cornrows pacers

At first, Tom Lewis of Indy Cornrows thought the Brandon Rush three was the nail in the coffin. On second though, he gave the credit to Murphy for the board. You can read the rest of his thoughts on the game here.

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Indiana Pacers @ Philadelphia 76ers
Monday, January 25
7:00 pm EST
Spectrum? First Union? Can’t Remember
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

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As advertised, there’s no preview today. It’s only a half-hour until tip anyway, plus there was enough other stuff posted today that I would prefer you read instead of me rambling on about a Sixer team you just saw play two days ago. The Pacers have to play better interior defense, not turn the ball over and make more shots if they want to win. That’s the preview.

I do, however, want to relink this recommendation that you donate to Haiti in honor of Samuel Dalembert and because, ya know, you just should.

And also, I answered a few questions about the Pacers defense/offense and TJ Ford today over at Philadunkia, so be sure to check that out. They run a good Sixer site. Here’s a quick teaser of some stuff I said:

AJ is now the most dynamic point guard on the team — as you may have noticed in the 3rd / 4th quarters the other night. In part, that’s a big compliment to how well the rookie second-round pick has been playing.  But it’s also a big wag of the finger towards the other options O’Brien has on the bench.  Presuming the Pacers don’t make any trades, AJ will be starting by the end of the year.

That is all.

BaconIsBetter_Fullpic_1

I Google image searched “that is all” and this was the 2nd result. Figured I’d run with it. It’s true, you know.

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The best news for Pacers fans this weekend was not even Pacers-related. It was about money. Specifically, it looks like the NBA’s wallet is not being quite as hard hit as expected so far this season.

This season’s NBA ticket revenues have not dropped as much as the league office projected over the summer. The league expected a 6% to 7% drop in ticket sales but there has been only a 1.7% drop to date.

Attendance is flat or ahead of last season’s pace in the majority of NBA arenas. The Nets and Pistons account for most of the small overall decline.

“The fact that we’re only down roughly 1.7% going into tonight’s games, I’m pleased about,” said NBA executive Chris Granger.

This doesn’t mean that the NBA is out of the woods yet, but if tickets keep selling ahead of the league’s preseason projected pace then next year’s salary cap, which was expected to drop significantly, will likely not fall to such a degree that the Pacers will forced to make salary dumping moves that they wouldn’t otherwise make.

shrinking NBA salary cap

The background here is that, given the ongoing economic downturn, the NBA expected its revenue to plummet across the league this year. Not only was attendance expected to dwindle, but this in addition to other sluggish returns had league execs projecting a significant drop in the all-important “basketball-related income” figure, which is what defines what the following year’s salary cap (and, thus, the luxury tax threshold) will be.

The 2009-10 salary cap had already gone backwards (from $58.7 million per team in 2008-09 to $57.7 per team this year), but that drop was not nearly as large as what the NBA was projecting for 2010-11. (See chart on right, courtesy of ESPN, for recent cap history.)

As ESPN’s Marc Stein put it:

The official league memorandum, obtained by ESPN.com, forecasts a dip in basketball-related income in the 2009-10 season of 2.5 percent to 5 percent, which threatens to take the 2010-11 cap down some $5 million to $8 million from last season’s $58.7 million salary cap.

A significant drop for the luxury-tax threshold is also projected going into the summer of 2010. If basketball-related income drops by 2.5 percent in 2009-10, league officials are projecting a 2010-11 salary cap of $53.6 million and a luxury-tax line of $65 million.

If BRI, as it is referred to in the NBA, decreases by 5 percent, teams would be looking at a $50.4 million salary cap and a luxury-tax line of $61.2 million in 2010-11.

“Teams should be aware of this projected BRI decrease,” reads the memo, “and plan accordingly.”

That “plan accordingly” aspect is what many small-market fans have been fearing. If the 2010-11 luxury tax was set at $61.2 million, the Pacers would already be over that line by around $4 million. Being over by that much would require owner Herb Simon to not only hand over $8 million to the league but would hit him with the proverbial “double-whammy,” as he would also be forfeiting the end-of-the-year payout that all the teams below the luxury tax receive — a check that equaled nearly $3 million last year.

So if next year’s luxury tax was set as low as the worst-case league projection of $61.2 million, Herb and Larry Bird would either (a) have to find a way to shave more than $4 million off of next year’s payroll (something easier said than done), or (b) bite the bullet and lose roughly $11 million (the $8 million in tax Herb would have to pay in tax plus an estimated $3 million he would not get back from the league.) For a guy who has been hemorrhaging untold tens of millions over the past decade on this team, asking him to lose another #11 million — on top of the $65 million for next year’s projected salary and whatever other enormous costs it takes to run an NBA team — would be asking quite a bit.

Fortunately, however, that mini-doomsday scenario looks a little less likely in lieu of recent news.

And that’s a good thing

A very, very good thing.

In related news, the Pacers are one of the teams whose attendance has dropped — so things aren’t all peaches and cream in Conseco. Last year, Indy averaged a lowly 14,182 fans per home game, which was worse than every other franchise except for Memphis (12,745) and Sacramento (12,571) . This year, reported attendance is down to 13,578 (which is, again, “worsted” by only Memphis and Sacto). The difference of 600 people per night isn’t going to make or break the team’s bank account, but any drop is obviously a negative and if the team gets worse — a definite possibility — than so might the attendance numbers.

So while today’s leaguewide ticket sale numbers are good — and the more important — news, let’s also be sure to keep an eye on the team’s ticket sales.

pacers conseco attendance

She’s still here at least. (Photo: Sam Riche)

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