From the monthly archives:

April 2010

Josh McRoberts: Ankle Breaker

by Jared Wade on April 22, 2010 at 1:21 pm · 5 comments

We have a lot of things to talk about this summer. A lot went wrong this year, ownership is saying some troubling things and none of the key players that Bird has assembled improved considerably aside from Roy Hibbert. I mean, even Larry himself is publicly calling out Granger for taking a step back. (I don’t necessarily believe that and don’t really think Larry really does either, but Danny obviously didn’t have nearly as good of a year this season as he did in 2008-09 even if he was able to right his ship over the last 20 games.)

I promise that we will soon be back to more regular posting to break down all that stuff and weigh in on everything from individual player assessments and the ongoing “they need guards—badly” concern to the perhaps-seriouser-than-ever financial problems for the franchise and how the team can improve this summer through the draft/free agency.

But, frankly, after such a terrible year, I think we’re all a little burnt out and need, like, two weeks away from Pacer Nation (starting retroactively from the end of the regular season apparently). 82 straight games of almost unbroken negativity will do that.

One positive thing about the season, however, was Josh McRoberts.

His emergence as a potential rotation guy was, to me, very unexpected and, at times, very fun to watch — both because this roster lacks much in the way of athletic finishers other than him and because, let’s face it, this team needs as many low-salaried-yet-productive players as possible given how much of the cap is monopolized by middling, overpaid vets. (Looking at you, TJ, Lil Dun, Foster, Troy and Tinsley’s buyout.)

Thankfully, Kyle Weidie of the Wizards blog Truth About It was able to track down two sweet gifs of what was my favorite Josh McRoberts play of the season and probably one of the better Pacer moments of the entire year. A few of Josh’s dunks/alley oops were more productive from a basketball sense, sure, but I’ll always have an affinity for ankles getting broke. So I like this the best.

Kyle was nice enough to point out two other interesting facts about the play.

In other news, McRoberts kinda-sorta looks like a much taller Charlie from “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia”.

Also notice — in the first GIF — how Al Thornton was duped by McRoberts, meaninglessly sprinting to an irrelevant spot on the floor.

Enjoy.

(And don’t worry … we’ll be back to our regularly scheduled posting in, I dunno, 10 days or so. I’m going to Boston all next week for a work conference so I’ll be back on my grind shortly thereafter. There will be some stuff before then, but don’t expect a huge windfall of content, from me at least, in the interim. I will, however, continue to cover the NBA Playoffs over at Both Teams Played Hard and Hardwood Paroxysm, so stop by and say hello.)

Josh McRoberts Javale McGee

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On Friday, Chris Sheridan reported some positive news regarding next year’s salary cap figure:

The New York Knicks and other teams hoarding salary-cap space for this summer’s free-agent market received surprisingly good news Friday when they were told at the league’s board of governors meeting that the 2010-11 cap is projected to be $56.1 million.

That figure was $2 million to $3 million more than most teams had been expecting and $5.7 million more than the league forecast last July as a worst-case scenario.

This is somewhat exciting news for some teams, including the New York Knicks, and it will make for a more interesting summer for NBA fans in general.   Larry Coon gives his view of what it means to the much anticipated Free Agent Summer of 2010 over on ESPN.

For the Pacers, this news could be considered more relieving than exciting.  This new cap figure means that the Luxury Tax threshold will be at $68 million, instead of the the previously projected $65 million.  If you include the $5.5 million cap hit remaining for Jamaal Tinsley, Indiana has a cap figure for the 2010-2011 season of about $65.7 million before signing any of their draft picks.

Though the Pacers final draft position is yet to be determined, it is safe to assume that they will be picking 10th (87% chance).  The rookie salary scale for the #10 pick this year is about $1.9mm, but the player can be signed for anywhere between 80 and 120% of that number.  The overwhelmingly standard practice is to sign for 120%, so this will add about $2.2 million.

The Pacers have their own 2nd round draft pick, and it is possible that they will get Dallas’ 2nd round pick (from the Shawne Williams trade).  Dallas has until June 1st to decide whether to give us their pick from this year or next.  Since this year’s pick would be #57, I believe it’s safe to assume that they’ll go ahead and give us the pick.

If we assume that the Pacers sign their #10 pick, and both 2nd round picks at the league minimum of just under $0.5mm each ($0.9mm combined), that would put their total committed salary of $68.9 million, or about $0.9 million over the tax threshold.

Fortunately for the Pacers, the teams actual salary is based on their payroll as of the last day of the season, so they can go into the season over the threshold, and still avoid the tax.  The good news about the higher cap is that the Pacers should be able to use the 125% + 100k exception to reduce their payroll by the $1.0mm or so necessary.  That rule says that they could send out up to 125% + $100k more in salary in a trade than they take back.  They could also strike a deal with a team under the salary cap to trade a player and take no salary back.

Had the cap stayed at the lower projections, the Pacers would have been forced to make a deal similar to the Harping trade Utah made earlier that season.  In that trade, Utah was forced to package rookie guard Eric Maynor to get Oklahoma City to take on Harpring’s salary.  It did save Utah $10 million, but it cost them a promising young prospect.

At the higher cap/tax number, the Pacers are no longer facing sending out a future 1st or a Roy Hibbert to get someone to take one of our big expiring contracts to get under the tax.  They can either use the 125% exception, as noted above, or they could make a smaller deal.  For example, they could trade Solomon Jones and his $1.5mm contract, along with a future 2nd rounder to some team under the cap (the $56.1 million cap, not the $68.0 million tax) for cash considerations or the rights to some International Player who will likely never play in the NBA.

Of course, should the Pacers end up in the top three (a scant 4% chance), then that would increase their cap/tax issue by anywhere between $1.9 and $2.9 million.  Of course, that’s what we call one o’ them there “good” problems to have.

For more detail, please visit our Salary Central.

Monopoly_Luxury_Tax-T-link

Like the Pacers, we at 8pts9secs wanted to avoid this luxury tax.  I would have put up a picture of a cap, but I didn’t want to piss anybody off.


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Game #82 Recap: Yeah, About That

by Tim Donahue on April 15, 2010 at 12:05 pm · 3 comments

Washington Wizards 98 – Indiana Pacers 97

————–

In the last recap, I wrote this:

So do we wad up the previous 17 games and throw them in the trash?  Nope. We don’t. That all happened. It may not have been great for the franchise in terms of draft position. In fact, it almost certainly wasn’t.

But it had to have been good for these players individually — and collectively — on some level. It gave them some idea that they are (OK, at least some of them are) legitimate NBA players. And while last night’s game was an obvious reminder that they aren’t great NBA players, hey, at least it wasn’t the last game of the season.

They will have one more opportunity to wash that terrible taste out of their mouths and go into the Summer with some semblance of confidence that this team, while by no means good, may not be as bad as they were for the first four months of the season.

That doesn’t say a lot, no … But it does say something.

Bring on the Wizards.

I may have been wrong about all or part of that.

Tombstone

This was fun. Let’s do this again next year.

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Orlando Magic 118 – Indiana Pacers 98

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It seems to me that the low point of this season occurred during the four-game West Coast swing at the beginning of March.  The road trip started with twin 23-point losses to the Lakers and the Blazers, then finished up with a pair of eight-point losses to the Nuggs and Suns.  While the Suns game was hotly contested (though a little overly fake-tough-guy-macho, in my opinion),  the final score on the Nuggets game was only that close because of a 10-0 Pacer run late in the fourth, long after the Nuggets stopped giving a tinker’s damn (whatever the hell that is).

I’m sure that, if asked to pick a specific moment when this season reached rock bottom, most would agree that it came in the post-game interview after the loss to the Lakers.  When asked to comment on Josh McRoberts’ performance (then a career high), Pacer Coach Jim O’Brien uttered his now infamous “irrelevant” response.  To some, this was the straw that broke the camel’s back with O’Brien, causing a huge outflow of animosity and leaving Pacers Nation with a continuing flow of snarky “irrelevant” jokes of the same quantity (and same general quality) of “you are the weakest link” and “you are voted off the island” quips of years past.

It was, in fact, a stupid thing for O’Brien to say.  It was pointless, and more than a little petty.  Of course, it was also 100% accurate, but I don’t think that makes it any less of a dick move.

So, the Pacers trudged home from that trip a whopping 23 games below .500, the furthest under water (in terms of games) the franchise had been since February of 1989.  They came home in what looked like total disarray, with a team pulling in 14 different directions.  It seemed almost without question that the coach had lost the team, and, quite possibly, the players had lost themselves.

Then, for reasons I don’t fully understand, they found themselves.  Coming into last night’s game, the Pacers had won 12 of the 17 games since that trip, including 10 of the last 12.  Granted, it was no murderer’s row.  Eleven of the 17 games (and 10 of the 12 wins) came at home.  One of the road wins came at Detroit, who is 99 different kinds of crap.  The other came at Cleveland, a team that was resting so many players that they started a video tech guy, and the first player off the bench was actually one cheerleader on another cheerleader’s shoulders wearing a Cavs uniform and a trench coat.

Still, there was clearly progress made.  There were impressive (almost dominating) wins against Oklahoma City and Utah, both of which are currently regretting their losses in an insanely tight Western Conference race.  There was a good solid win against Charlotte, also involved in playoff race.  The once-incompetent offense, averaging 101.9 per 100 prior to this stretch, was now clocking along at 112.3 per 100.

There were some very good things to be seen from some of the players.

Consider the following:

  • Danny Granger playing like the guy we expected coming into the season.  After averaging 23.1 points on a very disappointing .491 eFG% through March 6th, Danny averaged 28.3 points on .539 eFG% over his next 15 outings.
  • Troy Murphy had respectable numbers coming into this stretch, with 13.8 points and 9.8 rebounds on .542 eFG%, but his core numbers were stratospheric over this stretch.  His scoring jumped to 18.1 points on a gaudy .598 eFG%, while his rebounding numbers grew to 12.1 per night.  More importantly, the team performed better with him on the floor.  Over the first 63 games of the season, Troy’s regular +/- was -10.4 per 48 minutes, by far the worst of the core players.  The team was a net 12.2 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor than when he was off the floor.  During this stretch, his regular +/- of +8.9 was the best of the core players, and the team was a net 9.4 points per 100 better with him on the floor.
  • Earl Watson finally took control of the point guard position and stabilized it.  His assists jumped from 4.5 per night to 7.1, and the team scored 114 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
  • A.J. Price and Josh McRoberts finally got some consistent minutes and both performed admirably.  Price averaged almost 18 minutes a night after T. J. Ford went down with a groin injury, while McRoberts logged 15 minutes per in his role as first big off the bench.  Price was more consistent, as his role was more defined.  He showed some good things, but also showed that he has some trouble with quicker guards.  Early in the stretch, it looked like McBob might alternate with Solomon Jones as that first big off the bench, but he pretty much got control of the minutes after a few games.  On a team pretty much devoid of athleticism, Josh’s hops and occasionally spectacular plays provided some of the more memorable moments of a forgettable season.

Then There Was Last Night

Last night was pretty much a flashback to the bad (and not-so) old days.  Other than a roughly five-minute stretch in the second quarter when the Pacers used a 16-2 run to cut the lead to nine, the Magic thoroughly dominated.  I don’t think anybody who watched the game would disagree that Orlando won virtually every aspect of the game.  They outshot the Pacers 48% to 41% and outrebounded them 53-37.  They took 19 more free throws than Indiana, and hit 16  more.

The Magic took their first double-digit lead at the 6:22 mark of the 1st Quarter.  Over the remaining 42:22 of game time, the lead only dipped below 10 points for 16 seconds.  The Magic held a lead of 20 points or more for 26:31 of clock time, or about 55% of the game.  Alas, this one had no alibi, it was U-G-L-Y.

Here’s the deal:  I said the Pacers found themselves. I didn’t say they found the ’96 Bulls.

Last night’s game was a reminder of what this team is, at least in terms of its limitations.

What last night reminds us of was how thin the margin of error is for this team.  It reminds us that, if Danny can’t get it going, and if Roy can’t get it going, then it’s all over but the shouting.  It reminds us that the “puncher’s chance” shooting the three gives this team can leave them flat on the canvas if all they get are swings and misses.

So do we wad up the previous 17 games and throw them in the trash?  Nope. We don’t. That all happened. It may not have been great for the franchise in terms of draft position. In fact, it almost certainly wasn’t.

But it had to have been good for these players individually — and collectively — on some level. It gave them some idea that they are (OK, at least some of them are) legitimate NBA players. And while last night’s game was an obvious reminder that they aren’t great NBA players, hey, at least it wasn’t the last game of the season.

They will have one more opportunity to wash that terrible taste out of their mouths and go into the Summer with some semblance of confidence that this team, while by no means good, may not be as bad as they were for the first four months of the season.

That doesn’t say a lot, no … But it does say something.

Bring on the Wizards.

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