Comments on: What Does a Draft Pick Get You? Part III: First-Year Impact

By: What Does a Draft Pick Get You? Part VI: Ranking the Draft Classes 11-20

What Does a Draft Pick Get You? Part VI: Ranking the Draft Classes 11-20 — Mon, 20 Sep 2010 20:13:02 +0000

[...] Part III: First Year Impact [...]

By: What Does a Draft Pick Get You? Part V: Ranking the Draft Classes — The 10 Worst

Thu, 24 Jun 2010 20:10:34 +0000

[...] Part III: First Year Impact [...]

By: Tim Donahue

Tim Donahue — Wed, 26 May 2010 01:38:35 +0000

Wow…that’s embarrassing. I fixed it in the post. My apologies, and thanks for the catch. He also made Second Team All Defense.

By: Dawar

Dawar — Wed, 26 May 2010 00:57:40 +0000

Great post, but as a huge Tim Duncan fan, i was a little steamed at how you forgot to mention him as a rookie to make an all nba team.(specifically the first team baby!)

By: Dutchman’s Links | Always Miller Time | An Indiana Pacers Blog

Dutchman’s Links | Always Miller Time | An Indiana Pacers Blog — Wed, 26 May 2010 00:08:29 +0000

[...] Eight Points, Nine Seconds – Part III [...]

By: Josh Dhani

Josh Dhani — Tue, 25 May 2010 23:54:23 +0000

Another fantastic piece Tim! This is probably my favorite one. Great job with the series and the statistical analysis. Enjoying read. Looking forward to the draft more and more as it gets closer

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Tue, 25 May 2010 19:57:15 +0000

The term is median for midpoint. I’m a civil engineer by trade, so our numbers training isn’t that different! I never even took statistics.

Yes, the next graph below that is more clear. From 4 to 10, you’ve got a greater than 50% chance of drafting a role player or worse, when looking cumulatively over their first 4 years. Some may develop towards the end of that period into something more and their average is still in the role-player level, though.

By the end of the top 10, you’re seeing Patrick O’Bryant and Mouhamed Sene being taken. Ouch!

By: Tim Donahue

Tim Donahue — Tue, 25 May 2010 19:30:25 +0000

DS – Am I reading your chart correctly if I see that the mid-point (forgive me if I use the wrong terminology – just a lowly accountant) of a good chunk of the Top 10 is basically in the 5-12 Wins added, or Role Player level? That is to say, that’s where you get 50% above and 50% below.

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Tue, 25 May 2010 18:58:08 +0000

A number of the people criticizing Berri’s work in the “Wins Produced” thread above (which is the older thread from when his first book came out) are now employed by NBA teams…. which kind of indicates to me who was probably right.

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Tue, 25 May 2010 18:56:16 +0000

The image here: http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?p=31637#31637
covers the likelihood of each type of result, in terms of wins added over the first 4 years (under rookie contract).

30+ WSoRP: Superstar (~15 in the league in any 4 year span)
20-30 WSoRP: Star (~30 in the league over a 4 year span)
12-20 WSoRP: Solid Starter (~60)
5-12 WSoRP: Role Player
0-5 WSoRP: Bit Player
<0 WSoRP: Worthless Player