Or something. Either way, the 7’1″ guy with the funny name that the Pacers drafted in 2007 just got lit up by Yi Jianlian. And TBJ thought it was funny. I have to agree.
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From the monthly archives:
August 2011
(Tim Adkins went to the Drew League/Goodman League yesterday and offers the following report. This is his first contribution to 8 Points, 9 Seconds. He also writes at Backwards from 30 and Do You like Movies About Gladiators. You can follow him on Twitter @the_capital_t.)
It’s 4:30 pm on a blue sky Saturday in August. I’m standing outside the gym on Trinity University’s campus in the Northeast quadrant of our nation’s capital. At least 800 people — maybe a thousand — separate me from the gym’s entrance. I’m hungry. That matters because I’ll inhale the scent of burgers grilling for the next 90 minutes. That’s how long it will take for the homie Jeremy and I to inch toward the doorway. Olfactory torture — and a $28 ticket — are a small price to pay to witness an unlikely, even absurd, match-up of NBA players.
Just after the Blackberry shows 6 pm, I’m inside the gym. A track hangs over the court. It reminds me of the YMCA where I played church league ball in elementary school. If you took out all the bleachers and laid some carpet over the hardwood, Trinity would be a dead ringer for my Y. The jayvee game between two local AAU teams has reached the fourth quarter. These kids don’t look like kids. But they don’t look like men either. There’s something kinda Verne Troyer about them. In a year or two that will be gone. And when it is, some of them will probably make more money in a year than I do in a decade.
(image via @jose3030)
I’m told the gym can hold 3,000 people. It’s not clear if that assumes some onlookers would be standing on the overhanging track or not. Today, that track will be clear so TV cameras and lucky bastards who scored media credentials, like the homie Jose, can have a place to work. The bleachers that climb from opposite sides of the court look like they could suffer a couple thousand sweaty butts. And they are doing precisely that. People sit cheek to cheek in just about every seat. A number of Chocolate City’s finest. A smattering of Georgetown and University of Maryland kids. Some University of Kentucky alums. A bunch of basketball junkies. And about 30 Los Angeles loudmouths. I’m wearing a t-shirt that reads: “CA ALL DAY.” The lettering is purple and gold. I’ll be the 31st loudmouth.
A security guard points out where the place to buy the burgers is. Jeremy and I march up one sideline. Two rows of plastic chairs hug the perimeter of the court. They’re mostly empty. This was what $65 was supposed to buy you. My standing-in-line goggles make them look very attractive. But not quite as attractive as a $4 Kirkland cheeseburger.
Curtains hang lazily behind the plastic chairs parked along each baseline. Perhaps to discourage the folks who bought the $28 tickets from standing too close to the chairs. With at least 500 people — maybe a thousand — waiting outside still hoping to have their tickets honored, the integrity of the VIP seating would be the least of the organizer’s worries. A half dozen card tables have been skirted and are acting as the game’s concession stand. They are arranged within an NBA three-pointer’s distance from one of the court’s baselines. I buy a burger and a water. There is a gap in the curtains along this baseline. Jeremy and I plant ourselves in that gap. We’re one JaVale McGee arm behind the chairs and three total JaVale McGee arms away from the court’s baseline. Which, coincidentally, is where JaVale McGee sits.
The jayvee game is aborted. With about 90 seconds remaining, one of the coaches begins arguing a foul call that has deprived his team of an opportunity to break the tie score. One referee entertains the coach. Players pace the court listlessly. One referee chats up the scorekeeper. The clock runs. And eventually runs out. The score was no different at the end than it was before the game tipped. No one seems to care.
Where we stand in the gap doubles as the gauntlet players must pass through between locker room and court. As I gnaw on the last bit of burger, something causes heads to turn. I look left. And there they are. Men without nations. Very, very tall men. Whose nations would surely have frowned on the exhibition that is about to take place. Insurance on an eight figure contract is neither cheap nor accommodating. Never mind that eight figure contracts tend to contain plenty of clauses that prohibit even mundane activities. The t-shirts these very, very tall men wear make the only statement necessary: “Basketball Never Stops.” David Stern and Billy Hunter can have their squabbles over business models. The men representing the Goodman and Drew Leagues have come to hoop.
(image via @jose3030)
Watching the layup lines … things just don’t look fair. One team has all of the tallest players except for JaVale McGee. They also have John Wall, Ty Lawson and Gary Neal. Oh, and Kevin Durant. It’s as if the team representing Washington, DC is the Globetrotters and the team representing Los Angeles is the Washington Generals.
Goodman League commissioner Miles Rawls, who is largely responsible for bringing all of us to Trinity, introduces the players. Someone’s niece sings the national anthem. The crowd stands quietly. Some men remove their hats. Some don’t. Nine guys whose NBA contracts are not currently being honored crowd around half court for the opening tip. The tenth is nicknamed Baby Shaq. He is a crowd favorite from the courts at Barry Farms and, unquestionably, the best player whose signature is not affixed to an NBA contract.
A familiar, light-skinned Black man with unfortunate hair and a face like a slippery question mark joins them. He’s handed a microphone. Standing in the gap along the baseline, the sounds drifting out of the speakers are muffled. It’s a convenient excuse for ignoring the man. As if that were necessary when Vincent Gray speaks. He is ordinarily the second person most folks in DC think of when they hear the word “mayor.” Marion Barry, the mayor-for-life, always being the first.
Gray throws up a ceremonial tip. McGee, who pays income tax to the District of Columbia, wins it. The ball is retrieved. McGee and DeMarcus Cousins re-gather themselves. The real tip is tossed. McGee wins again. Before anyone can blink, Brandon Jennings has lobbed a pass to a sprinting McGee who slaps the ball through the rim. It is a fitting opening statement full of joy and fury. Rawls, as is customary, has already launched his running commentary.
(image via @jose3030)
The Goodman team wobbles a bit to start. The DC crowd grows anxious for Kevin Durant to do Kevin Durant things. He does. He drives, leaps and rises stretching his endless right arm to slam home his first basket. A jump shot from several steps behind the three-point line is greeted with shouts of “Lay-up!” as it swishes through the net. He glides past McGee to up and under a reverse layup that would have earned Julius Erving’s approval. Durant’s team eventually leads by seven.
On the other end, the Drew team can’t finish anything. Dunks, put-backs, short jumpers, long jumpers, even foul shots. Although Drew’s foul shots are rare as the referees begin to betray a mild DC bias. Whenever good things do happen for the Drew team, Jennings is usually at the center of them.
(image via @jose3030)
Players rotate in and out throughout the first half. Durant, Jennings, Wall, Lawson, Neal, James Harden and DeMar DeRozan create blurs sprinting up and down the court. Clearly, they have stayed in shape this summer. Marcus Banks, Josh Selby and Baby Shaq keep pace. McGee, Smith and Cousins streak a little more selectively. Cousins takes a turn in the post and, on consecutive possessions, abuses the rim as if he were the ghost of Darryl Dawkins come to shatter one last backboard.
Drew keeps it close throughout the first half. The pace of the game reduces the importance of their size disadvantage. Defense is skeletal, at best. But it becomes angrier, less willing to concede as the half draws to a close. Likewise, players on both sides grow frustrated with the officiating.
(image via @jose3030)
With a little over two minutes remaining in the second quarter, Goodman leads by two. Durant and Harden face off about 25 feet from the basket. Durant dribbles teasingly. Harden crouches to claim his territory. The scene is the most familiar of the day. In this instance, Harden swipes at the ball and inadvertently pops Durant in the chest. A non-shooting foul is called. Before Durant inbounds the ball, he clutches his bird chest to catch his breath. He grimaces. Then snarls. Off the inbounds pass, Durant drains a 25-footer to shouts of “Lay-up!” On Goodman’s next two possessions, Durant attacks the rim finishing both times. After his second drive, which produces a score over Jennings, Durant pulls his fists to his ears in search of bicep muscles. If muscles can bulge modestly, Durant’s do. They taunt Jennings and suggest, for the first time, that the rout is on. Goodman takes a 76-65 lead into halftime.
A pee wee dance team scrambles onto the court. The girls are entirely too young to ogle. Some of the women wandering the gym are not. BBQ couture is the style of the day. Light dresses hug curves, but don’t expose them. Shorts showcase legs. Tank tops showcase body parts that hang out above legs. Hair is did, but not overdid. Temptation keeps the head on swivel. Perhaps the hardest to resist is the funnel cake that calls out from the card tables just a few feet away. Sudden awareness of Delonte West or Andre Miller moving through the crowd brings the mind back to basketball. I’ve been on my feet for more than three straight hours now. I weigh the urge to sit down versus the need to preserve my space in the gap. Players begin to emerge from the locker room. We’re only moments away from the start of the third quarter. The space, clearly, is the choice.
John Wall opens the second half with a couple of plays that tighten Goodman’s grip on the game. Basketball is just too easy for him. Among the players assembled, he is the most naturally gifted. He shows it in deliberate flashes when the game needs it from him most. To think of him as merely a showboat is an insult of the highest order. The Goodman lead bleeds toward 20.
(image via @jose3030)
McGee pulls himself up on the rim into a half Shaq/half plank position following a breakaway dunk to cut the deficit to 13. The 30 Drew fans — most wearing Drew Crew t-shirts — perk up. Goodman squeezes again. And then Brandon Jennings happens. Driving, dishing, dropping jumpers neatly through the net. He’s not exactly a one-man crew, but he ignites a comeback and caps it with an And One (sorry, Under Armour) to take a one-point lead for Drew late in the third quarter.
The Drew Crew is standing and yelling. The rest of the crowd is seated and quiet. Shouldn’t Durant do something here? He does. He bricks a tomahawk dunk. Could it be that home cooking won’t be served tonight? Jennings, Harden and a surprising Marcus Banks continue eating. Drew leads 110-103 at the end of three.
(image via @jose3030)
Goodman sends Durant, Wall, Neal, Baby Shaq and Cousins out to start the fourth quarter. It is their best line-up. Early in the fourth quarter, John Wall does a John Wall thing. For a moment, it brings everyone in the gym onto their feet. If you’re cheering for Drew, you suddenly feel about three inches shorter. Kobe Bryant is not walking through that door. Neither is Paul Pierce. What’s worse is that you remember you only have two fists and two feet and that’s simply not enough to fight off a couple thousand people who smell blood. That feeling lasts about three short breaths. The vibe of the crowd has been entirely too fun-loving all day. Besides, this is a Miles Rawls event. Inside that gym may be the safest place there is in all of Washington, DC.
McGee swats away two Goodman shots. But it’s not enough. Momentum has shifted. DeRozen heaves a knuckleball at the rim as a random voice shouts, “No Jay Simpson!” The shot clangs in the direction of Wall. In transition, Neal receives a pass and slips a 15-footer through the net. The lead, like momentum, shifts back to Goodman. They take a six point lead, 119-113, with seven minutes remaining. Durant has made some plays at the rim thus far in the second half, but he seems quiet. Like maybe he’s waiting for the clock to prompt him to seize the game one last time.
(image via @jose3030)
Jennings won’t wait. Neither will Marcus Banks. Banks drops a three. Then Jennings. And Banks again. Yes, that Marcus Banks. Drew goes back up by one, 122-121.
Wall and Durant take their cue. Durant leaks out for two easy breakaway dunks. Wall drives and scores. Goodman leads by five, 129-124, when Smith subs in for a panting McGee. Smith, who has struggled to finish all evening, misses two bunnies. Goodman fails to stretch their lead.
With Jennings, Harden and Banks on the attack, Drew pulls even, 133-133. Less then a minute remains in regulation. Free basketball feels possible. Even likely.
On a Drew possession, Harden gets fouled. The entire Drew team has struggled at the free throw line during the game. None more than Jennings. Although Harden has made a sincere effort to match his futility. With less than 40 seconds on the clock, Harden splits a pair. Drew leads by a hair, 134-133.
Goodman gets the ball back. Wall and Durant don’t say anything to each other, yet are clear about what will happen next. They have already conspired to re-take the lead and, in all likelihood, win the game. A whistle blows. Durant is fouled in the act of shooting. He calmly drops in both free throws as if they were those 25-foot “lay-ups” the crowd likes to sing about. Goodman is back on top, 135-134.
(image via @jose3030)
The shot clock is off. It never needed to be on for this game. But it is definitely off right now. Twenty-one seconds remain. Drew can take the last shot if it wants to. And it wants to. Jennings, in particular, wants to. He is a streaky player. He streaks up and down the court and into the paint whenever he pleases. He also can interrupt long sequences of missed shots with brief flurries of makes. At his best, he is streaking toward the rim creating desperate confusion for the defense.
In the closing seconds of the battle between the Goodman and Drew Leagues, Brandon Jennings chooses not to be at his best. With Wall staring him down and daring him to go back instead of forward, Jennings takes the bait. He misses a step-back jumper badly. Harden collects the ball and gathers for one last heave. He, too, is off target. The buzzer sounds. Goodman survives. The final score: 135-134.
(image via @jose3030)
The drums for Jadakiss’ “The Champ Is Here” crash out of the gym’s speakers. Players dap each other up. Some exit the court quickly. Some pause for interviews. Or to scribble an autograph. We are told that Kevin Durant has been named MVP. The declaration sounds redundant. Perhaps insufficient. Watching Durant move through the mob, it becomes evident that Vince Gray is the third person some people in DC would think of when hearing the word “mayor.”
I have been on my feet for five straight hours. I am tired. I am thrilled. NBA players played basketball. I don’t know whether they were fairly compensated for their efforts. I do know their efforts were sincere.
I wonder, for a moment, how much time will pass before I get this close to a real game played by such very, very tall men. It’s 9:30 pm. I am hungry again.
CORRECTION: Derrick Williams did NOT play in this game as was originally asserted. Whoops. Thanks to Kyle Wiedie of Truth About It for pointing that out.
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(This post series is the first contribution to 8 Points, 9 Seconds by Kevin Hetrick. He has previously written for the ESPN TrueHoop Network site Cavs the Blog as a “draft expert.” Originally from Ohio, he has lived in Indianapolis for about 10 years and recently took a keen interest into what makes the Pacers tick.)
Looking at the Pacers, it is easy to see the makings of a good team. They are young, have cap flexibility and play at a fast pace. They should continue to be a team on the rise. With George Hill in tow, they have six players under contract who most NBA analysts would consider viable members of a quality eight-man rotation (Danny Granger, Hill, Darren Collison, Paul George, Tyler Hansbrough and Roy Hibbert). Most are 25 or younger and Granger is the senior-citizen of the bunch at 28.
This core can likely keep the Pacers as a 45 to 50 win team for several years.
In this post series, we will be analyzing exactly how the team can improve on its 2010-11 performance. But to start, we won’t be looking at the Pacers. We will first look at some of metrics that we’ll be using throughout the analysis.
The goal in every basketball game is to score more points than the opponent. It’s a simple game. And the best way to measure the effectiveness of a team at scoring and defending is offensive and defensive ratings, aka, points per 100 possessions (pts/100). This in and of itself doesn’t tell you how a team scored or defended effectively — it just tells you whether or not they did.
To find out the how, we look at a few other metrics. Specifically, we’re going to look at how well these other metrics have correlated with pts/100. (Correlations, and all trend data in this article series, are based on leaguewide stats from the past three seasons). The higher the correlation, the more likely it is that an improvement in the statistic will lead to improved rating. (A perfect positive correlation is 1.0, a perfect “negative correction” is -1.0 and something found to be independent is 0.) For instance, making a team shoot a low FG% is a better way to become a better defensive team than blocking a lot of shots is. Thus, defensive FG% has a correlation much closer to 1.0.
By far, the highest correlations to offensive rating are the shooting percentage statistics. Over the last three years, effective field goal percentage (eFG%, which is basically FG% that accounts for the fact that three-pointers are worth three points) has correlation of 0.864, true shooting percentage (eFG% that also accounts for FT%) has correlation of 0.859, and good ol’ fashioned field goal percentage has correlation of 0.771.
This isn’t really revelatory; if your team shoots well, they will likely be a good offense. The most interesting aspect may be that eFG% had better correlation than true shooting (this is true with defensive rating also). Logically, many consider TS% to be a better stat since it incorporates the ability to get to the free throw line (and make those freebies). However, teams were (very slightly) more likely to be effective with increases in eFG%.
Something more interesting is where the best offenses shoot from. Of all shooting ranges tracked by Hoopdata.com, percentage of field goals taken as threes had the best correlation with offensive rating at 0.411. This is not shocking; leaguewide, the eFG% for three-pointers is higher than any shot besides those at the rim. So, teams that create good looks from three-point range are more likely to have a good offense than teams that can’t. As this suggests, three-point shooting percentage also has good correlation (0.627).
More surprising is that percentage of shots taken at the rim had negative correlation with offensive rating. The negative correlation was small enough to effectively be independent (-0.083), but a reasonable assumption is that teams shooting more shots at the rim would fare better. This wasn’t the case. Average FG% at the rim has been 60%–64% compared to an average eFG% of around 50%; but oddly, teams shooting more often at the rim are slightly more likely to have worse offenses. Increasing a team’s proportion of shots from 3–9 ft, 10–15 ft, and 16–23 ft is more likely to correspond with decreased offensive efficiency (-0.097, -0.169 and -0.287, respectively).
Assist-related stats also offer some insights. Percentage of possessions including an assist had reasonably high correlation with offensive rating (0.474), but this is tied to other factors. Obviously, teams that don’t turn the ball over and make shots at a high percentage are more likely to have possessions with an assist.
This can be seen in the fact that the percentage of field goals that were assisted only had a correlation of 0.182. An interesting aspect of this is that increased percentages of field goals assisted from 3–9 ft, 10–15, 16–23 ft and three-point range had small negative correlations (from -0.097 to -0.198). Only percentage of assists on field goals made at the rim had a positive correlation (0.253).
These numbers reflect the importance of players who can create shots for themselves. If a team is relying on the offensive system to create a bucket from anywhere outside of three feet, it is likely to result in worse offense. The correlation of percentage of assists for various shooting ranges may also provide some insight into the importance of strong guards and wings, as opposed to big men. This conclusion is based on assisting for easy opportunities at the rim is the only area of assisting that appears to support good offense.
As for other statistical areas, reducing turnovers and getting to the free-throw line (in terms of FTAs per FGAs) had decent correlations of 0.427 and 0.326, respectively. Actual free-throw shooting percentage had minimal positive correlation of 0.169. Pace was completely independent from offensive efficiency (-0.021 correlation). And offensive rebounding rate (ORR) was independent from offensive rating with correlation of 0.025. This doesn’t mean that offensive rebounds aren’t important — just that a great offensive rebounding team is as likely to be a good offense as a bad offense.
In summary, improving a team’s offense is most easily performed by finding players that can create and make shots, first for themselves and secondarily as shots at the rim for teammates. Creating good three-point attempts is important. Reducing turnovers is more likely to result in improved offense than getting to the free throw line. Building a strong offensive rebounding team should be a GM’s last concern.
The other side of the ball not-so-surprisingly has some similar results. Like on offense, forcing opponents to miss shots is most important on defense. The correlation is even higher here, however. Opponent eFG% has correlation of 0.92, TS% is at 0.917, and FG% is 0.906.
One trend that is more pronounced is how well certain shots are defended. Opponent’s FG% at the rim and from three-point range both had very high correlations of 0.712 and 0.706. Opponent FG% from 16–23 feet was important (0.55 correlation), while defending better from mid-range was less so (a correlation of only 0.21).
The range of correlations for shot locations on offense was tightly packed from 0.35 to 0.65; shooting well from anywhere was comparably likely to result in quality offense. The wider range of correlations defensively likely highlights the importance of contesting shots in the paint and closing-out on shooters.
Unlike with offense, there was minimal correlation between reducing three-point attempts and better defense (0.157). But there was decent correlation for forcing opponents to shoot long twos and defensive rating. Percentage of opponent’s shots from 10–15 feet had correlation of 0.515 and percentage of shots from 16–23 feet was at 0.378. In sum, it was more important to ensure opponents shot from this range than to make them shoot a below-average percentage from there.
Defensive rebounding was a lot more likely to result in good defense than offensive rebounding was for offense. The correlation of rebounding to defensive efficiency was 0.649. Percentage of blocks and defensive plays (block, steals, charges) had relatively low correlation with defensive rating (0.314 and 0.37, respectively) while reducing free-throw attempts and forcing turnovers had even lower correlation (0.247 and 0.177).
Finally, passing stats were more indicative of defensive performance than for offense. On defense, lower rates of assisted field goals had positive correlation with defensive efficiency for all shooting ranges. Additionally the positive correlation on defense is higher than the negative correlation for offense. Reducing the percentage of assisted field goals has correlation ranging from 0.118 (16–23 feet) to 0.426 (at rim). On offense, it seems that is important to have players who can create their own shots; and on defense, it appears vital to ensure that opponents are forced to create their own shots. Make of that what you will.
To summarize, on defense it is important to contest shots at the rim, close out on shooters, and control the defensive boards. The correlation of defensive efficiency to FG% at the rim and on threes, and to lower assist rates; demonstrates the importance of the defensive system and quality rotations for defensive efficiency. More traditional individual and team stats like blocks, fouls and turnovers have lower correlation to defensive efficiency than stats reflecting good team defense (shot locations, assist rates). Good one-on-one defense is important, but good rotations, consistent effort and keeping the opponent acting as five individuals instead of as a cohesive unit are more important.
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I went to St. John’s University. But in 1985, when Chris Mullin was winning his John Wooden Award for being the best player in college basketball, I was 5. So I didn’t see him play much.
In fact, living in Maine and not really caring much for NCAA basketball until the Fab Five showed up, I can’t even recall knowing what St. John’s was. I remember seeing them and Malik Sealy play during that era, but it wasn’t like I ended up going there out of some nostalgic connection to the glory days of Mully and Mark Jackson in the mid-80s.
But I always did love watching Chris play. Run-TMC in Golden State was sublime offense and the 1997-98 Indiana Pacers are probably my favorite team in NBA history. Between all these things, I’m among the bigger Mully reppers around. His SJU jersey is probably the only one I would ever wear, this being 2011 and all. Him making the Hall of Fame gave me some real joy. Hearing that legendary St. John’s coach Lou Carnesecca, a delight of a human being, would introduce him? That just made it even greater.
So it is with a big smile that I see things like this. Here, Indy Cornrows recounts Larry Bird talking about the time he and Mullin had a shoot-out in practice.
I’m pretty sure I would pay more to see a video tape of that duel than I would an current NBA game. Shooters gonna shoot.
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