During the years of 2000 through 2008, Tracy McGrady was a perennial All-Star.  From seven All-NBA selections to two scoring titles, an argument could be made that, for that eight year stretch, McGrady was one of the best players in the Association.

In the last few years, however, McGrady has been, to put it nicely, “written off” by critics and fans alike.  His public perception into mediocrity culminated this past offseason, as, on account of the apparent back surgeries, only a handful of teams were interested in the free agent forward.

For some teams, their concern was that McGrady simply was not as talented as he was in years past.  Others had the viewpoint that even if he had recovered nicely from surgery, he would not be able to play a supplementary role as a potential bench player.  In the end, these two concerns greatly clouded the decision-makers’ perception of McGrady, and by the time August 2010 rolled around, only three teams had brought him in for an official workout.

One of those teams, however, was the Detroit Pistons, who today face off against the Indiana Pacers.  Coming off a disappointing season, the Pistons’ brain trust of Joe Dumars and John Kuester viewed the addition of McGrady on a minimum salary as a low-risk, high-reward proposal.  Would the addition of a potential superstar alter their internal dynamic of the team for the worse?  No, agreed Michael Rosenburg of the Detroit Free Press.  “They can’t mess up their championship chemistry, because they don’t have championship chemistry”.  On the other hand, what if McGrady did indeed exceed expectations and return to form?  Well, then, he would happily be added to Dumar’s long list of successful reclamation projects.  With such a mindsight, the Pistons signed McGrady on August 10th, hoping for the best.

Fast forward seven months later, and it is clear that the situation has indeed been a veritable win-win for both parties.  The road to redemption, however, was wrought with initial struggles.  In the 15 games he played in during the month of November, for example, McGrady averaged just 4.9 points per game in less than eighteen minutes off the bench.  As the season has wore on, however, his game has slowly returned to its brilliance of years past.  In December, he averaged nearly twenty minutes per game, and in January, he increased his monthly minutes to an extremely respectable 31.3 per game.  As his playing time has increased, so too has his production:  In January, he averaged a miniature triple double, putting up the guady line of an average of 11 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists per game.  His resurgence has progressed even further in February, as he is currently averaging 12.6 points per game, and has even managed to get to the free throw stripe thrice a night.

McGrady’s return to prominence, however, cannot be expressed through statistics alone.  Rather, he has reinvented his role, relinquishing the role of scoring forward for that of a cerebral floor general.  Although the Pistons’ lack of a top-notch passing point guard contributed to Kuester’s decision to play him at the point position, McGrady has managed to play his new role in a fashion that has attracted the praise of many.  As Kuester puts it, ““His basketball IQ is off the charts.  He’s done a real good job of distributing the basketball the right way. It’s very impressive some of the things he sees on the basketball court.”

Onlookers have also noticed the play of McGrady.  “For him to become such a rock for this team at point guard was more than I ever envisioned”, praised Pistons broadcaster George Blaha.  “To see him make the transition to point guard has been equally amazing.”  Indeed, the statistics also support this, as he has had logged five or more assists fourteen times this team, and in fact has turned the ball over at a quite a low rate.

So what’s next for the revived McGrady?  Dumars has mentioned that McGrady has been ”extremely good” and that the team would “like to have him back”.  At the same time, McGrady will be a free agent, and figures to command far more than the relative pittance that he is currently earning.  Nevertheless, it is evident that McGrady is not a player who plays for the money, but rather, for the love of the game.  Concurs Blaha, ”I’ll bet you that making more money next year or the year after hasn’t really crossed his mind.”  Moving forward, thus, it is unclear whether he will return to the Pistons next season, but one thing is clear: T-Mac is Back.

Under Interim Head Coach Frank Vogel, the Indiana Pacers have played their way to a 6-1 record, and as many players have noted, part of the reason for the recent success has been the changes that Vogel has made since assuming control of the team.  From putting cementing the  playing lineup, to reintroducing shooting guard Dahntay Jones to the rotation, Vogel has undoubtedly put his mark on the team.   One less discussed change he has made, however, has been his decision to bench newly-acquired small forward James Posey. 

Under the reign of Vogel’s predecessor, Jim O’Brien, Posey averaged around eighteen minutes per game, appearing in 41 games off of the bench.   Contrastingly, in the seven games that Vogel has coached, the twelve-year veteran has been in a game just once, and that too for a mere four minutes.   A major reason for this, notes Mike Wells of the Indianapolis Star, is that Vogel has a lesser preference than O’Brien to play small forwards at the power forward position (a strategy known as “small ball” in informal basketball vernacular).  When the unfortunate logjam at Posey’s natural small forward position is taken into account, it comes as no surprise, then, that Posey has seen his minutes dwindle to null (as many predicted at the beginning of the season).

While the reduction in playing time for Posey will surely aide the development of younger players such as George and Brandon Rush, the Pacers also lose key skills that Posey brings to the table.  Consider, for instance, his proclivity towards drawing charges, a beneficial aspect of an effective defense.  Posey understands that the threat of a drawn charge is an effective deterrent to opponents looking to score in the paint.  As he puts it, “Guys will come in the lane and start thinking twice and they’ll settle for a pull-up jump shot instead of driving all the way”, the totality of which results in opponents taking lower percentage shots farther from the basket.  And of course, even when the preventative element of drawing charges fails, the tactic is also a useful solution to players who do try to score within the painted area:   The charge results in a foul for the opposing player, in addition to an unwanted turnover, thus allowing the defending team to receive possession of the basketball.

The loss of Posey’s shooting ability must also not be discounted.  Although he is shooting quite poorly this season at just thirty-five percent, he has historically been a very effective shooter, especially from three-point range.  It is possible that, given minutes, his shots will start to fall, as he appears to be due for a “hot” streak.  In fact, during his 2006 Championship season with the Miami Heat, Posey connected on over forty percent of his three-point field goal attempts, a very admirable number.  In light of this, it does not appear to be a stretch to make the claim that his shooting touch will soon return, which would undoubtedly benefit the Pacers if he were given the privilege of playing time.

It is important to note that, unlike situations of the type that occur from time to time in professional sports, Posey’s demotion does not portend a personal conflict instigated by Vogel.  Rather, his reduction in playing time is strictly a basketball decision, and does not imply a permanent seat on the bench.  Indeed, Vogel has not been reluctant in the least to utilize Posey’s services as needed.  For example, he was inserted into the game against the Portland Trail Blazers on February 4^th, thus allowing the Pacers to spread the floor.  Quick in his praise for the forward, Vogel noted that, “Posey us some good minutes in the first half when we needed him, when we needed to go small because they were a zone and we needed to attack the zone”.  A few days later, Vogel further voiced his appreciation for Posey (albeit in a roundabout manner), remarking, “I believe in every guy on this roster”.  Likewise, Posey has also indicated his thankfulness for good coaches, proudly saying, “I’ve been coached by Pat Riley, Doc Rivers, Hubie Brown.  Just thinking about some of the guys I’ve played with and the coaches I’ve had, I can’t ask for anything more.”  It appears unlikely, therefore, that Posey’s benching is a result of dissent between him Vogel.  Rather, it is an unfortunate decision warranted by an abundance of wing players.  With these considerations, it is evident that Posey is still perceived as an impactful player in the eyes of Vogel, and if need be, Posey will be back on the floor again, displaying his trademark brand of active defense and sharp shooting.

“I’m just going to cherish these times I’m playing with him”, praised Chicago Bulls starting point guard Derrick Rose… “He has a lot of value in this league,” complimented Milwaukee Bucks General Manager John Hammond… “He’s played in the NBA Finals”, lauded longtime NBA Head Coach Scott Skiles …Upon hearing these words of acclaim, one would venture to think that they refer to a young basketball star, perhaps a high-flying shooting guard or an All-Star forward.  On the contrary, however, these quotes are but a small sample of the praise being heaped upon none other than 38 year-old Bulls center Kurt Thomas.

Indeed, at a point in his career when many players his age are relegated to practice-player status, Thomas is in fact currently playing a key role for the Bulls.  Impressively, not only is he starting for the team in lieu of injured pivot man Joakim Noah, but in fact, he is also putting up impressive stat lines.  Earlier this month against the Indiana Pacers, for example, Thomas secured eighteen rebounds, including four on the offensive glass.  A few games later, he grabbed five offensive rebounds on his way to an eleven rebound outing against the formidable Dallas Mavericks.  One of his most laudable games came earlier this week against the Milwaukee Bucks, as the sixteen-year veteran scored twenty-two points, dished out five assists, and hauled down nine rebounds.

So how has Thomas managed to log such impressive numbers despite his age?  Part of it is his ability to make open jump shots, a skill, which, as many have noted, ages well.  As teammate Carlos Boozer said in regards to Thomas’s twenty-two point night, “He was on fire…He always proclaims how good his jump shot is, because he be having some good jump shot practices, but today he carried us”.  Statistics further support the praise for Thomas, as he is currently shooting the basketball at an efficient clip of fifty-two percent, with seventy-seven percent of his shots being jump shots.  Along these lines, his effectiveness is enhanced by his ability to play the two-man game effectively.  As Orlando Magic Head Coach Stan Van Gundy bluntly put it, “Kurt’s very good in the pick-and-pop shooting the ball”.

Aside from merely being able to score, however, Thomas is also able to impact the game from a defensive perspective by utilizing his proverbial “basketball IQ” in addition to simple physicality.  Consider, for instance, his play in a game against the Philadelphia 76ers in late December.  Matched up against forward Elton Brand, Thomas was able to play effective man-to-man defense, and in fact used his knowledge of the game to poke the ball away twice while Brand was attempting to make a move.  Owing in part to Thomas, Brand finished the game with nine fewer points than his typical fifteen, and that too on two of nine shooting.  Thomas’s ability to impact the game when not directly guarding a post player is also evident. 

In the words of Bulls Head Coach Tom Thibodeau, “He plays great rebounding position. He’s a great communicator”.  Indeed, Thomas’s basketball smarts is a welcomed complement to his physical strength.  Notes Van Gundy, “You rarely see a guy with his combination of intelligence and toughness”, indicating the fact that Thomas not only has basketball IQ, but also size and heart.  Overall, his defense, a blend of strength and smarts, has been evident many times this season, most notably against the Bucks earlier the month:  Playing forty-four out of a possible forty-eight minutes, he played a role in forcing opposing pivot man Andrew Bogut to just eight points on four for eleven shooting.

Even after Noah replaces him in the lineup, however, Thomas will continue to play an important role for the team — albeit in a capacity that doesn’t involve dribbling or rebounding.  In other words, Thomas’s leadership is another element he brings to the table.  For instance, one of the attitudes he tries to instill in his teammates is a sense of hard work and focus in their championship pursuit.

“I’ll show up as a solid veteran who is going to bring it each and every day”, said Thomas.  “When the playoffs hit and everyone sees that I’m still going strong, hopefully that will push some of the younger players who might still be trying to find their niche in this league.”  Indeed, simply by setting the example of a strong work ethic, Thomas figures to spark a similar desire in teammates to also play and practice with spirit and tenacity.  Such a style of play will be an advantageous in the Playoffs, as hardworking, effort-expending teams have an obvious advantage over lackadaisical opponents.  Another facet of Thomas’s locker room acumen is his committment to staying ready to play, regardless of whether he actually steps out on the floor or not.   Skiles has noticed this, and offers high praise for Thomas’s preparedness: “ “He had some DNPs earlier and now, boom, he’s out there and he’s a factor.”  Thibodeau also values this trait of his, complimenting, “ “Every time he’s been called upon, he’s been ready.”

Make no mistake, Thomas has the ability to play basketball at a high level.  But ultimately, even if Thomas isn’t able (or needed) to contribute on the blacktop, it is in this area — leadership — that he can play a significant role in helping the Chicago Bulls realize their championship aspirations.

Throughout his career, Chandler has been known for his rebounding, and this year is no exception.  Although his average of 9.4 rebounds per game is apparently mediocre, it becomes quite impressive once it is converted to a per-48 minute basis, as he ranks eighth in the League in this metric.  It is also important to note Chandler’s ability to rebound on the offensive end of the court as well, as he ranks ninth in this category.  His propensity of “crashing the offensive boards”, as one would colloquially say, is of particular significant to the Mavericks, as they are in the top twenty percent of all NBA teams in shooting percentage.  When they receive more opportunities to shoot the basketball (due to Chandler’s offensive rebounding) it becomes even harder to prevent them from scoring on a given possession.

The defensive prowess of Chandler is also visible on a contra-opponent basis.  Indeed, over a 48-minute period, he out-rebounds the opposing team’s center 15.6 to 13.7, and also manages to block nearly one shot more than his respective counterpart.  In addition, Chandler’s quickness allows him to guard perimeter forwards and centers, giving the Mavericks a new defensive dimension.  In previous years, mobile centers on opposing teams would be able to take advantage of Chandler‘s predecessors at the center position (Erick Dampier and Desagana Diop) but with the addition of Chandler, this has been mitigated. Additionally, it is necessary to note here that although Chandler’s size (or lack thereof) may initially seem to put him at a disadvantage against larger pivot players, in reality, this does not seem to be as big of a problem as one would think.  Listed at 235 pounds, he is considerably less bulky than the centers that the Mavericks will face if, as anticipated, they advance deep into the playoffs.  In spite of this, however, in career head-to-head matchups against larger-than-life centers Dwight Howard of the Orlando Magic and Andrew Bynum of the Los Angeles Lakers, Chandler has in fact defended their post play quite nicely.  His play against Bynum, whom he will inevitably be matched up against in the playoffs, is quite encouraging in particular for the Mavericks:  In scores of career matchups, he has held the Laker center to just 8.5 points per game on 47.5 percent shooting, a considerable drop-off from his career-averages of 56.8 percent shooting to score 10.3 points per game**.

Chandler has also been praised for his role in the improved team Dallas defense, and the numbers do not dispute this assertion.  In terms of points allowed per possession, the two most commonly-used five-man units with him at the center position allow just .99 points per possession, a praiseworthy achievement.  When examining his play on an individual basis, the results are also positive:  At 1.01 points, Chandler is tied for second place on the Mavericks in points allowed per possession when he is on the court.  Overall, he leads his ballclub in defensive rating at 100.57 points per 100 possessions, an indicator of his impact on defense.  The specific ways in which Chandler affects the Dallas defense cannot, however, be gleaned simply by statistics alone, as he is neither an excellent shot-blocker nor particularly apt at stealing the ball.  Rather, his impact on the defense is a function of his good defensive positioning, a skill that cannot be quantified.  As Mavericks owner Mark Cuban commented in the Fort Worth Star Telegram, “He’s so active, he moves so well, he communicates well, and he’s one of the guys that’s accountable on the court defensively”.

Chandler’s defense, however, is only half of his excellence.  His ability to positively impact the Dallas offense must also not be discounted.  In fact, his offensive rating is second only to star forward Dirk Nowitzki on the team.  Chandler’s ability to score the basketball may be factor in this impressive statistic:  Previous Dallas centers Diop and Dampier had very little offensive capabilities.  Chandler, however, who is known for his mobility and athleticism, can put the ball through the hoop in a number of ways, most notably through high-flying dunks.  In fact, twenty percent of his shots are dunks, and nearly all were assisted (For comparison, just eleven percent of Dwight Howard’s converted field goals were dunk shots).  Dunks, which are high percentage shots, are undeniably a beneficial shot.  Unlike many defensively-sound centers,  Chandler also has the ability to make jumpshots, giving him another offensive weapon.  Further, it is also prudent to note that although ability to score off of assists has been praised frequently, he is also capable of creating his own shot.  In a 2007 scouting report authored by Anthony Givony of DraftExpress.com, Chandler is described as having “some spins and quick jabs that let him use his length to his advantage“ and “has a decent right handed hook shot”.  At the same time, it must be kept in mind that the majority of Chandler’s offensive game is still dependent on others.  Says Givony: Chandler is “more of a catch and finish guy”, a claim which can be visualized statistically through his noticeably high percentage of assisted-upon field goals.

Overall, the addition of Chandler has been a major boon to the Dallas Mavericks.  By being able to defend while at the same time contributing on offense, Chandler has been able to give the Mavericks an unique element that they have not had for over a decade.  His ability to impact the game on both ends of the court is illustrated through his excellent net offense/defense rating, which is one of the best in the League, and is in fact better than such household names as Tim Duncan and Carlos Boozer.  Only playoff success will tell, however, the true value-added of Chandler for the Mavericks, but for now, they are currently nestled in second place in the Western Conference, and that’s certainly something to celebrate.

**It must be mentioned that this this statistic can be misleading at time, as the head-to-head numbers were tabulated for Chandler and Bynum throughout the game, not just the periods of time in which they guarded each other.  Likewise, it does not account for double-teams and/or help defense.  These two qualifiers must be kept in mind when utilizing this statistic.

Jay Ganatra is a frequent contributor to 8 Points, 9 Seconds and is currently studying accounting at the University of Florida. You can reach Jay at jay.ganatra@ufl.edu.

The Celtics’ defense has constantly been praised for the last four years as being one of the most stifling in the league. At first glance, however, it appears that this truly is not the case. After all, they are nearly last in the NBA in blocks per game, and even when factoring in other stats such as charges and steals (measured through defensive play rate, an advanced formula which also takes into account related markers [ie possessions, free throws etc]), the picture is still seemingly mediocre.

In spite of this, Boston’s defense is still lauded as one of the best, and a deeper analysis shows why such a categorization is in fact astute. Consider, for instance, an analysis of the Celtics’s defense from a shooting perspective: Boston forces the opposition into jump shots on 71% of non-turnover possessions, while allowing close-range shots just 24% of the time, one of the better values in the league. Of course, this is meaningless if the shots are not well-defended, and so it is also important to note that not only do they encourage jumpshots, but also that they yield a mere 42.6% effective field goal percentage on jump shots. This indicates that the Celtics are playing high-level defense even when they are unable to force a turnover (as mentioned before, these percentages apply only to possessions resulting in a field goal attempt), and so when one sums/takes into account other metrics such as steals and charges, the defensive prowess of the Celtics becomes very visible indeed.

Of course, any discussion of Boston’s defense would be incomplete without mentioning their ability to defend the paint, and for good reason: the Celtics allow just a 52.6% effective field goal percentage on close-range shots, one of the best marks in the league. Part of this is likely due to their ability to effectively harass the opposing team’s pivot man. Specifically, opposing centers are being held to an effective field goal percentage of just 46.7%, a commendable number.

All of these figures are of particular importance to the Pacers. Although they 72% of their shots are jumpers, Indiana’s effective field goal percentage on jump shots against all opponents is 44.5%, and so we can see here from a statistical standpoint the difficult time the Pacers are likely going to have tonight in terms of scoring the basketball. It is worth noting, however, that even if the Celtics’ are able to bother Pacer pivot man Roy Hibbert in a fashion akin to the manner that they’ve harassed opposing centers all season, Hibbert may in fact not experience such an extraordinarily bad shooting performance, as he is currently shooting 45.9 percent against all teams, which isn’t too far off from the 46.7 percent that the Celtics hold opposing centers to.

Also of concern to the Pacers tonight in particular is the fact that although star Celtic guard Rajon Rondo is not expected to play, the defense still is quite adept. In the two player rotations that Boston has used the most when Rondo is out of the game, backup guard Nate Robinson has manned the point guard spot, and in fact, when this is the case, the unit’s number of points allowed per possession is actually lower than allowed by the two lineups most commonly used when Rondo plays.

In spite of Celtic’s proficiency on defense, however, let us end on an optimistic note: Although Boston has a winning record of all types of teams, they have won by the least number of average points to teams that rank in the top third in terms of effective field goal percentage allowed. This bodes well for the Pacers, as they are one of the top teams in the League in terms of forcing opponents into shooting a low percentage.

Ultimately, this (and any) basketball match-up can be dissected to infinity. It is prudent here, thus, to bring an end to all this statistical speculation, and simply let the cards fall where they may, simply hoping for the best:

Pacers vs Celtics. Conseco Fieldhouse. 7:00 pm

Jay Ganatra is a contributor to 8 Points, 9 Seconds who is currently studying accounting at the University of Florida. You can reach Jay at jay.ganatra@ufl.edu.

Pacers vs Celtics By the Numbers

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Person, as Pacers fans have experienced first-hand, was one of the premier shooters of his generation, and so it is no wonder that when he was brought in last season as a special assistant, he did not disappoint. The beginning of his Laker tenure, however, is an interesting study in interpersonal relations.

Person knew that as a newcomer last season, he couldn’t simply walk in and tell players what they needed to work on. So at first he would simply observe during practice. Then, when he thought he could help, he would gently ask permission to voice his opinion.

Person carried himself this way at the advice of former Pacers President Donnie Walsh.

“I told him, ‘Chuck, I’ll tell you what you do. You go in there and don’t tell them anything as to what they should do because they just won the championship. You should just sit there and watch these guys for a while, because they’re really good. … You learn from them and then once you feel comfortable, you can add what you know,’” Walsh said.

In such a fashion, he made sure to not, in the words of fellow Laker assistant Brian Shaw, “overstep any of his boundaries.” Slowly but surely, Person was able to endear himself to the team, and as time passed, Jackson began to entrust more and more duties to him. This progression eventually culminated with the Lakers hiring him for the entire 2009-2010 season. Quite a turnaround for someone who was initially brought in to work just during training camp.

His biggest contribution to the team began in December 2009 after Bryant fractured his right index finger. Bryant had started to trust Person, and so when he offered pointers on how to adapt his shooting form due to the injury, he fully embraced Person’s advice.

Out of this came a one-on-one partnership with Bryant to improve his mechanics. The results were successful. By the end of the season, Kobe had increased his free-throw percentage to a career-high 88% — despite what should have been a devastating impediment to his shooting ability.

Bryant has relished their time working together.

“He has the same kind of attention to detail that I have. I enjoy being around that. I enjoy talking to him about it. I spend a considerable amount of time shooting with him and working on different things and just strategically how he sees the whole puzzle, not just pieces of the puzzle; he sees the whole thing as I do. It’s important for me to have another set of eyes that I can communicate with and kind of work on things with.

“He’s just a great Southern dude, man.”

All this being said, Person’s coaching skills are not restricted to just offense; he also aides players in improving their game on the defensive end of the court — even power forwards and centers. Last season, for instance, Person was one of the coaches who assisted pivot man Andrew Bynum develop as a player.

This has earned him the praise of Jackson.

“Chuck has an analytical eye,” said Jackson. “He’s always seeking answers and looking for reasons, so that blends in well with the kind of process we like to go through. I can give him something we need to work on defensively and he’ll come in with some exercises and things we have to do, and he works really well with our post players even though Chuck was one of the great outside shooters in the game.”

Furthermore, Person’s coaching success is not only a function of his basketball knowledge, but his ability to communicate well with today’s NBA players. Unlike some coaches and players, Person is very upfront, not hesitating to tell players what they need to do to improve.

Because of this, Portland Trailblazers Head Coach Nate McMillan has long-known that Chuck would make a good coach.

“I thought he was a coach when he played and I had the opportunity to work with him then … I just feel that the things that he brought to the floor, his communication skills with players not only players but the stars, he will approach any guy and work with him. You saw times last year when he and Kobe were communicating during the playoffs. Chuck is just that type of guy that will pull a guy to the side, star or best player [included], and talk to them about what they need to do and won’t be afraid or intimidated by that player.”

Even more remarkable, however, is the fact that Person has managed to stay humble despite his coaching success. With regards to his feat of helping improve the game of one of the the best players in NBA history, he notes with an air of humility that, “Kobe was a great player before I came and he’s going to be a great player after I leave.” Likewise, he hesitates to even take credit for what he has taught the star, adding that “all the things I told Kobe are things Jerry West told me.”

Indeed, such is this former Pacer — brilliant on the court, but just as inspiring as a teacher and as a person.

Jay Ganatra is a contributor to 8 Points, 9 Seconds who is currently studying accounting at the University of Florida. You can reach Jay at jay.ganatra@ufl.edu.

Although their record stands at just 9-8, a deeper look at the standings indicates that the Pacers are in actuality playing at a higher level than in seasons past, with the reason for this being the improved defense. Last season, the Pacers ranked 23rd in the NBA in points allowed; this season, they are at the top of the pack, allowing 97.2 points a game, good for 10th overall. While Indiana wasn’t particularly poor in terms of points allowed per hundred possessions last season (they ranked 15th in the NBA), this season, they are hounding opposing offenses far more, as evidenced by their ranking 7th in the league in this area. When examining the defense from the perspective of opponent field goal percentage, the numbers are even more encouraging: Last season, they allowed the opposition to shoot 45% against them (13th in the league), but with better defense this season, they are forcing the opposition into 43% shooting, one of the best such marks in the NBA. The defense, thus, has played a major role in the Pacer’s 9-8 record.

It logically follows, therefore, that part of what is holding Indiana back is its inability to score efficiently. In terms of points scored per hundred possessions, it ranks 19th. Of course, the Pacer’s effective field goal percentage (conventional field goal percentage adjusted for the fact that a three-pointer is worth more than a two-pointer) is indeed above the league average at nearly 50%, but this metric paints an artificially rosy picture as it does not take into account free throws made — a category in which the Pacers rank second to last. Consider also the fact that Indiana ranks 18th in the NBA in three-point field goal percentage. Make no mistake; this is not too far below the league-average. However, it does become a minor blemish when one learns that the Pacers have attempted the second-most number of three-pointers of any team this season (but as we’ll see below, this issue is likely to fade as the season progresses as players exit their career-worst shooting slumps). Such are the offensive statistics for Indiana. It is clear, therefore, that (currently) offensive production is not as good as the fine defense.

In spite of these offensive struggles, however, Pacer Nation need not worry. One positive sign — and one that hopefully suggests that the team’s shooting woes will improve — is that the Pacers are currently ranked 13th in the NBA in assists-per-game. This suggests that Indiana has above-average ball movement; when the shooting percentages inevitably catch up (TJ Ford and James Posey are currently mirred in their worst shooting seasons of their careers, and so their slumps are unlikely persist for the entire season) the positive results will be even more pronounced. One big reason for this is the Pacers’ increased reliance on third-year starting center Roy Hibbert.

In order to give him more touches, they’ve slowed down the offense to where they are tied for 9th place in the NBA in terms of possessions used per game, a considerably drop from years past. Jim O’Brien’s tenure in Indiana has been marked by quick play. The Pacers were 2nd in pace last season, 3rd in 2008-2009 and 3rd in 2007-08. So far this year, however, they have been much closer to playing at a league-average speed.

As a result, the team has given Hibbert more control of the basketball, and thus far, the results have been positive. Aside from increasing scoring from Hibbert, a significant plus has been his ability to pass the ball: Among power forwards and centers, his 3.0 per night is tied for 6th in the NBA in assists per game. As a result, the Pacers have experienced better ball movement (as mentioned above, they’ve improved their assists-per-game ranking from last year), and when the collective shooting percentage inevitably (hopefully) increases to where the number of three-pointers attempted is more in line with the three-point percentage, the effects of his passing will be felt even more. And when the team shoots better, defenses will be less apt to sag off of perimeter players to help on Hibbert, giving him more room to operate in the post.

Another dose of hope worth investigating is the Pacers’ point differential. This metric is very favorable towards the Pacers; despite their 9-8 record, they are 11th in the League (+2.4 points per game) in terms of the average number of points that they win by. When adjusted for strength of schedule, the prognosis becomes even slightly more optimistic, as Indiana ranks 10th in the league in Simple Rating, a calculation that takes into account point differential as well as opponent strength.

Overall, the Pacers have improved from last season, most notably on the defensive end of the floor. While the offense has some catching up to do, it may very well improve, which will help the win-loss record even further. At any rate, the Pacers have played well, and for now, that’s enough to make a Pacer fan smile.

Statistics can never reveal the whole picture. But in this case, the team’s defensive and offensive numbers so far paint a good picture as to why this year’s Pacers look better than last season.