In searching for a telling statistic this week, much of my initial thoughts were simply pointing out what would be obvious to any casual observer of the Pacers: The offense is terrible, the schedule has been weak, Roy Hibbert is gunning for the Adonal Foyle award as the owner of the NBA’s worst contract, and so forth.

While perusing Basketball Reference’s stats page, however, I came across a fascinating number: 11.3%.

So far this season, the one thing that the Pacer have been able to hang their hat on has been defense. Sure, the team might have the second-worst offense and the lowest effective field goal percentage in the NBA, but the defense has been pretty stingy. Right now, the Pacers have the NBA’s best defense in fact, allowing just 98.2 points per 100 possession (which, for reference, is nearly 6 points/possession better than league average).

The difference, however, is where our 11.3% comes into play.

This is the turnover rate of the Pacers’ opponents so far this season. Turnover rate is the percentage of opponents’ possessions that end in a turnover. The Pacers are currently ranked 30th in the NBA in turnover rate and are creating turnovers on about 2.5% fewer possessions than they did last season. What this means is that while they are playing some pretty stingy defense, they are not creating the turnovers necessary to turn that defense into instant offense. They are rarely grabbing a steal and running down the court for an easy basket. They are more often just forcing the other team to miss, grabbing the rebound and then marching up the court to run a terrible offensive set that probably won’t work.

If they were able to create live-ball turnovers and get more easy baskets, perhaps that would help stimulate their moribund attack. And guys like Paul George and Gerald Green could probably benefit from just seeing the ball go through the hoop easily even one or two more times per game. For a team of frontrunners, which is how they often looked even last season, getting out and proving to yourself that you can score can make a world of difference in how you approach the offense the next few times down the floor.

Instead, the team has only scored 14.2% of its points off of turnovers this year, good for second fewest in the NBA.

9: This is the number of games in which Gerald Green had played more than 10 minutes for a team with a winning record before joining the Pacers this season. He had played in a total of 212 NBA games. All 9 of those games were played for the Dallas Mavericks during the 2008-09 season – a year where he also played a stint in the D-League before ultimately being cut.

This isn’t written to excuse Green’s poor play through the first four games of the season, only to point out that he’s being asked to do something this season that he’s never done before – play a meaningful and important role on a good team.

The kindest way to describe Green’s play so far is to say that the jury’s still out. He’s shown flashes of impressive talent, but they’ve been rare and often sandwiched between stretches of either bone-headed or tentative play. It’s been obvious to all observers that he’s been struggling mentally to cope with his new situation. This has prompted Frank Vogel to move Green to the bench in favor of Sam Young, hoping a change in role would benefit both players. In the game against San Antonio, however, the entire team was so wretchedly awful that no conclusions should be drawn from that game.

Considering today’s news that Granger will be out for 3 months, Green’s importance to the team is clear. In writing about Granger’s absence, I noted that George, Green, Young, and Stephenson needed to step up. So far, Stephenson is the only one who’s done it.

There have been signs over the last 2 games that Green is starting to snap out of his funk. He was terrible the first 2 games of the season: shooting under 30%, turning the ball over 8 times, and posting negative game scores. However, over the last 2 games, he’s been much better: shooting over 50%, turning the ball over twice, and posting game scores of 13.2 and 7.9.

Let’s hope the corner has been turned, because the Pacers will need all the help they can get for the next 3 months.

22-26. This is the Pacers’ record since 2005-06 in games played without Danny Granger. The team’s record in regular season games with Granger over the same period is 237-273 (.465).

Two things jump out at me when I look at these stats.

The first thing I notice is that Granger has been incredibly healthy over the course of his career. The Pacers have played 548 regular season games since drafting Granger, and he has played in 510 (91%) of them. For a guy who slid in the draft due to injury concerns, that’s pretty darn good, especially when you consider that 20 of those 38 missed games came in 2009-10 campaign (almost all due to a torn plantar fascia) in which precaution was prioritized over wins.

The second is that it hasn’t exactly been the end of the world for the Pacers when Granger has had to miss a game or two. Everyone knows the Pacers are a better team with Granger — it would be silly to argue otherwise — but the team has been able to absorb Granger’s absence fairly well in the past. My hunch is that they’ll be able to get along without him fairly well on a short-term basis this season for a couple of reasons.

Mainly, I don’t think it will be a huge issue because the small forward position became the deepest position on the team this summer. Last season Dahntay Jones was the team’s primary back-up at the three, and the only other option to soak up minutes at the position was to slide Paul George over from the shooting guard spot. This offseason, the Pacers signed Gerald Green and Sam Young and drafted Orlando Johnson. All three of those guys are capable of playing the three, though Johnson is primarily a guard (and a completely unproven on at that).

Another reason is that the team is not built around Granger any more — if it ever was. In the past the Pacers needed Granger to score prolifically in order to succeed. Frank Vogel and a vastly improved supporting cast have changed this. The team now relies on a balanced approach. Granger’s scoring is no longer the irreplaceable skill it once was. The “most irreplaceable” mantel has been passed – probably to David West, though you could make an argument for Roy Hibbert.

The bottom line is that this loss is a survivable one, if, as Vogel pointed out the other day, other guys step up. Here’s looking at you Paul George, Gerald Green, Lance Stephenson, and Sam Young.

It’s rare for people – especially in the sports world – to agree about anything, but there seems to be a consensus about the Indiana Pacers developing amongst both  the most rabid fans and the most impartial observers: The Pacers are good, but not good enough. They will make the playoffs and be a tough out, but they’re not considered serious title contenders. And with a roster lacking high-level assets playing in a small-market with no history of desirability for free agents, it seems clear that any significant improvement must come from within.

That’s where Paul George comes in. Anyone who watches him play can see the potential and upside that ooze out of every pore. While the Pacers have other youngsters (Roy Hibbert & George Hill) who look to be developing into very good players, George is the only one who seems to have true star potential. George also spent part of this summer on the USA Select Team practicing against the U.S. Olympians. Mike Wells has recently reported that George seems to be playing with a new found intensity in offseason pick-up games. It certainly seems like the 2012-13 season could be a breakout season for the young wing.

With all this bouncing around in my head, I wanted to see what the historical precedent looked like for 22-year-old wing players entering their 3rd NBA season after playing significant minutes during their sophomore campaign. Did these guys typically show a lot of improvement? Would there even be much data to look at? Here’s what I discovered:

Surprisingly, there were 20 players who fit into the category mentioned above: Magic Johnson, James Harden, Monta Ellis, John Drew, Nicholas Batum, Danilo Gallinari, Adrian Dantley, Eric Gordon, Mike Miller, Tim Thomas, Rudy Gay, Joe Johnson, Corey Magette, Jamal Crawford, Wilson Chandler, Tyreke Evans, Metta World Peace, DeMar Derozan, Michael Beasley, and Larry Hughes.

After compiling this list of players, I noted the change in a number of important per-36 statistics between their second and third seasons. I then averaged the differences to see what we should expect George’s numbers to look like this year. The overwhelming result of all this statistical tabulation follows:

Don’t expect too much.

Of all the statistics I tracked only assists and points showed a significant per-36 improvement. You can expect the assist numbers to increase by about 0.2 and the points to increase by about 0.5. The other statistics I looked at did not show an increase or decrease of more than 0.1 in any category.

There were, of course, a few singularities who should give us reason for hope.  Eric Gordon, James Harden, Monta Ellis, and Joe Johnson showed significant improvements during their third seasons. Gordon posted the highest increase in points at 5.4, while Harden, Ellis, and Johnson saw significant increases in FG% (3-5%) and points (2-3 pts).

Of course, none of this  applies specifically to Paul George so it’s probably best to take it with the proverbial grain of salt. But if you’re expecting to see Paul George at the all-star game doing anything other than dunking, you might want to go take a cold shower.

O.J. Mayo – SG – 6’4″, 210 lb., 24 years old

His Game: There are a lot of misperceptions floating around about O.J. Mayo and the way he plays basketball. Because of his high-profile high school career, high draft position, and flirtation with the point guard position, many people assume that Mayo is a ball-dominant, creative two-guard in the mold of Dwayne Wade and Kobe Bryant. This is not true. As Chris Herrington points out in this fantastic overview of Mayo’s game, his playing style and career numbers are far more in line with sweet-shooting scorers like Ray Allen, Ben Gordon, and Kevin Martin. The main take away from this comparison is that while Mayo is pretty good at creating his own shot – he was assisted on 51.3% of his baskets last year, 16th among SG’s – he’s not very good at creating for others.

He’s been given plenty of opportunities as a creator, and he gives it a decent effort, but it’s worth noting that while he has decent looking assist numbers (3.4/36min), he also turns the ball over fairly frequently. Mayo is also not a great player going to the basket. He takes about 21% of his shots at the rim and does not finish particularly well (56.6%). Defensively Mayo struggles, though it’s not for a lack of effort. Mayo simply lacks the size, length, and elite athleticism to be more than an average defender. His defensive struggles are the primary reason he’s been coming off the bench in favor of Tony Allen for the last 2 seasons. There are 2 other factors worth noting: 1. Mayo has struggled coming off the bench the past 2 seasons. 2. He seems to have a rocky relationship with his coach, Lionel Hollins.

The Fit: The Pacers are looking for a player who can create their own shot against good defense and carry the load offensively off the bench. Mayo fits the bill in both instances. He also represents a significant talent increase over any player he’d be replacing. He would fit well into the Pacers egalitarian approach where any of 6 or 7 players could be the best guy on any given night. However, I would find it hard to spend big money on a guy who’s spent 2 years struggling in the role you’re paying him to fulfill. One thing to consider is that Lionel Hollins is considered to be a fairly old-school, hard-nosed coach. We’ve seen players who wilted under this type of coach (but remember, we’re not talking about Roy Hibbert today) thrive under the uber-positivism of Frank Vogel.

Overall Take: Mayo is an expensive proposition (He’s reportedly not returning any phone calls from teams not willing to offer more than the full mid-level exception which starts at $5 million), but I would classify him as medium risk and high reward. The worst thing you’re going to get if you sign Mayo is an overpaid, slightly above average basketball player. There’s potential, however, for much more. Neil Paine of Basketball reference recently pegged Mayo as one of 6 free agents who are statistically poised for a breakout season. There’s a chance that a change of scenery, coaching voices, and teammates would propel Mayo toward the stardom he seemed destined for after his first couple years in the league.

Note: Mayo also had a famous ABCD camp battle with Lance Stephenson back in ’05.

Courtney Lee – SG – 6’5″, 200 lb., 26 years old

His Game: Lee has a very well-rounded game. To begin, he’s a very good shooter.  He’s shot above 40% from the 3 point line 3 out his 4 seasons in the NBA while shooting 2.9 3′s a game over the course of his career. In addition to his outside game, Lee is pretty effective going to the basket. He gets to the rim at the same rate as Mayo (21%) but he finishes more effectively (62%). One thing to note is that Lee is assisted on about 10% more of his rim baskets than Mayo. This gives us the portrait of Lee as someone who gets to the basket by cutting off the ball in addition to taking his man off the dribble. Lee does not create shots for other players, but he also does not stop the ball offensively.

He generally plays within the context of the offense and is known as a guy with a high basketball IQ. Defensively, Lee is a very good player. He is known as a player with a passion for the defensive end of the floor. He is quick enough to guard PG’s, but has also had success guarding bigger players: he made Kobe Bryant work very hard while guarding him in the 2009 finals.

The Fit: While Lee is a very good basketball player, he is not the high-volume scorer the Pacers are reportedly looking for off the bench. Like Mayo, however, he definitely represents a talent upgrade over whomever he replaces. Lee reminds me quite a bit of George Hill – a consistently above-average player who works hard on both ends, takes what’s given to him, and makes relatively few mistakes.

Overall Take: Lee is a good basketball player. He’s a low-risk, medium-reward signing. He doesn’t have the breakout potential of OJ Mayo, but he’s also likely not quite as expensive. He is a guy you will never regret having on your team. He’s also an Indiana native and a proven playoff contributor.

(Note: There is a definite drop-off in price, role, and expectations between Mayo and Lee and Delfino and Green. Mayo and Lee are going to need 25+ minutes each night and $5+ million a year. These next two guys won’t.)

Carlos Delfino – SG/SF – 6’6″, 230 lb., 29 years old

His Game: Delfino is, in many ways, the perfect wing for “smashmouth” basketball. He’s a big, physical player who likes to play defense and rebounds incredibly well.  Offensively, he doesn’t give you much, but he doesn’t hurt you at all either. For Pacer fans, it would be good to think of him as a more jump-shot oriented, less ball-stopping version of Dahntay Jones. Pretty much all Delfino does on offense is shoot 3 pointers. In fact, last year 52% of his shots were from behind the arc.

He has very little game inside the arc, however, and is a poor finisher at the rim (56.6%). He does handle the ball well for a big 2 guard, but he lacks the explosiveness to use this ability to do much other than bring the ball up the court occasionally.  He is a good passer who makes good decisions and few mistakes, but no one would mistake him for a great creator or a guy who could initiate the offense. Defensively, Delfino is solid. He uses his big body and strength well to make up for his lack of great athleticism.

The Fit: Like I said, Delfino basically gives you much of the same things Dahntay Jones does, just at a slightly higher level. Delfino’s sweet spot is the corner 3 point shot, and that seems to be one that is available frequently in the Pacers’ offense.

Overall Take: Delfino is not the scorer that the Pacers are looking for, has almost no upside, and only provides a slight upgrade over the incumbent wing players. He is, however, a tough guy who plays good, solid basketball. However, I don’t know that I see the point in signing Delfino to take away valuable developmental minutes from guys like Stephenson and Johnson, especially if Dahntay Jones remains on the roster.

Gerald Green – SF – 6’8″, 200lb, 26 years old

His Game: Before I tell you about Gerald Green, you should read this. If you followed instructions, then you know that Gerald Green is an uber-talented former first-round pick and slam dunk champion who’s had a rough path through the nether-regions of professional basketball while trying to resurrect his dream of playing in the NBA. Looking at Green’s stats and game, two things become readily apparent: 1. He’s not afraid to shoot, and 2. He doesn’t create his own shot.

This is not usually a good combination. Last season, Green put up close to 15 shots each 36 minutes he played. While that doesn’t sound like a lot, that’s nearly the same rate at which OJ Mayo shoots the ball.  He has a similar usage rate to Mayo also.  The major difference between the two players is that Green was assisted on 67.5% of his buckets last year, while Mayo was only assisted on 51%.

While Green cannot create his own shot, he is a good shooter when a shot is created for him. He had the highest true shooting percentage (57.4) and effective field goal percentage (54.8) of all four players. Green also is a fantastic finisher at the rim (70.7%), but, again, he doesn’t get there on his own – he was assisted on 70% of his makes at the rim. Defensively, he’s just figuring things out. Avery Johnson, his coach with the Nets last season, had this to say about his defense, “He’ll make a mistake every now and then, but he competes on defense.” Green has Paul George level length and athleticism, so the ceiling is pretty high defensively.

The Fit: At first glance, grabbing a guy like Green who resurrected his career by making open shots created by Deron Williams (Green played over half his minutes with Williams last season) wouldn’t seem to make a ton of since for the Pacers. However, I actually feel like he’s a pretty good fit with the second unit, especially if that unit is going to feature Lance Stephenson. Stephenson, though he’s an unfinished product, is a guy who seems focused on creating shots for his teammates. Green is a guy who would thrive taking advantage of these shots. The Pacers’ second unit also needs another player who’s not bashful about shooting as only Tyler Hansbrough seems to really look to score when the second unit is together. Also, Green’s high school coach believes that Green thrives when the people around him believe in him, and Frank Vogel is still the coach of the Pacers.

Overall Take: Assuming Green can be gotten for a reasonable price, he’d be a very low-risk, high-reward acquisition. The potential that made him a top 20 pick coming out of high school is still there, and he seems to be developing the maturity to harness it. If Green can reach his considerable ceiling, he has starter level talent.

Ranking the Deals/Players

Upside: Mayo, Green, Lee, Delfino

Risk Level (from high to low): Green, Mayo,  Lee, Delfino

Current Talent: Mayo, Lee, Delfino, Green

I’d be happy with any of these players on the Pacers, though I’d be less excited about Delfino than the others. All four guys have skills that would help the Pacers and are likely to come at different prices. This is a situation where beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and it really depends upon how much Pritchard and Walsh want to spend and gamble.

I think the Pacers are attempting to do something fairly unique to LeBron James: punish him physically.

LeBron is, arguably, the most impressive physical specimen on the planet. I doubt there is any other human who could match his combination of size, strength, quickness, and stamina. He can physically dominate just about any player in the NBA. Conventional wisdom has led most teams to shy away from challenging LeBron physically — the way teams do with a less imposing player like Kevin Durant. Last year, Dallas laid a bit of a blueprint by trying to wear LeBron out by forcing him to guard smaller players.

In this series, we see LeBron mainly guarding two players: Danny Granger and David West. In Game 1, the Pacers tried the conventional method of giving the ball to West and letting him try to score on LeBron. This wasn’t incredibly successful. Since then, however, the Pacers have attacked James differently. Instead of throwing the ball to West and watching him work, West is working on LeBron without the ball, seemingly trying to push, shove, bump, and elbow him at every opportunity. If LeBron fronts West, David shoves him out to the three-point line. If he plays behind him, West shoves him as far under the basket as he can go. When a shot goes up, West boxes him out as aggressively as he possibly can. The message is clear: we can’t beat you unless we beat you.

For his part Granger is doing everything in his power to prove to James that he is not afraid. This occasionally borders on destructive silliness, but it’s important for Granger to assert himself. Granger is not David West, but he is a big, strong man, and he’s not being shy about letting LeBron know that.

Roy Hibbert finally learned how to be the biggest man on the floor. 

I’ve been critical of Hibbert in the past, mainly because he’s always come across as soft, both mentally and physically. The best way to defend him has always been to go small because he’s never been able to assert himself against smaller guys. This was obviously not the case last night. For one of the first times in his career, we saw Roy Hibbert realize that he was 4-to-6 inches taller than his opponents and do something about it.

In addition, I think the beginning of the game showed us the blueprint for Roy’s path from above average to pretty freakin’ good: the mid-range game. For years we’ve heard that he is a good shooter (even from Bill Walton), and the assertion seemed to make some sense. He’s a good free-throw shooter. He’s got a soft touch. His form looked pretty good. Yet when he would hoist a mid-range shot in game, the results were often ugly. In the first quarter last night, however, he knocked down every mid-range shot he took (notice I’m refraining from calling them jumpers since I’m not really sure his feet leave the ground). If Roy can add this mid-range shot to his game with Ilgauskas or Nesterovic-esque consistency, he’ll transform from a borderline All-Star into a perennial one.

Balance is the key. 

Tim’s already written better than I ever could about the “team” aspect, but one thing I realized last night is that balance is far more than just having multiple guys scoring points. It really applies to every aspect of the game, and when the Pacers are playing well, they’re playing in balance. Balance is Hill and Collison not dribbling 8-10 seconds off the shot-clock waiting to start the offense. Balance is Hibbert and West not taking 8-10 seconds to set-up a post move. Balance is not Granger or George or Barbosa poised in the triple-threat position watching the clock tick down. Balance is making quick and selfless decisions and actions. It is every player striving to impact the game as much as possible no matter who they are guarding or how many shots their getting. Balance is what will help the Pacers win this series, if this is, in fact, a winnable series.

Ball don’t lie. 

Dwayne Wade should have been suspended. He had no business playing in that game last night.

But I sure am glad that he did.

When coaches adopt this mentality where every possession of every game becomes more important than their wife’s birthday, I call it “playoff coaching.” We saw a bit of this last night from Frank Vogel against the Knicks, and I loved it. Mike Wells,  Bob Kravitz , and Jared Wade have already covered what happened in the game far more adroitly than I could, so we’ll leave the summaries to them. What happened in the fourth quarter last night, I hope, signifies a gestalt change for Vogel and the way he intends to coach this team for the rest of the season.

One of my biggest complaints about Vogel all season has been his scripted substitutions and his unwillingness to deviate too much from a pre-determined rotation.  Let’s face it, we all know that somewhere between the six and four minute mark of the first quarter, we’ll hear the buzzer and see George Hill and Tyler Hansbrough walk onto the court while Paul George and David West head to the bench.  Most of the time it doesn’t matter if George or West are playing great, their time is up. This pattern largely continues throughout the entire game, though Vogel does occasionally alter it during the fourth quarter when a player’s play or match-ups dictate that he should. I understand that this type of consistent rotation has been a breath of fresh air for the players, who are only a bit over a year removed from the mad-scientist-like rotational scheming of Jim O’Brien, but sometimes it drives me crazy.

Too many times this season we’ve seen teams target specific players and their specific weaknesses while the Pacers have tried to play “their game”. Watching Deron Williams repeatedly post Darren Collison or Steve Nash and Marcin Gortat repeatedly torch Collison and Hibbert’s feeble attempts and pick-and-roll defense while the Pacers have the solutions to these problems either sitting on the bench or playing elsewhere on the court has driven me batty all season. For 3 quarters last night, the situation repeated itself as Carmelo Anthony abused David West and Tyler Hansbrough (27 points in three quarters) - who failed to take advantage of him defensively – while I screamed at my TV. Any Pacer fan knows that the only player on the roster capable of guarding an engaged and motivated Anthony is Danny Granger. Yet for 36 minutes we watched him guard Iman Shumpert and Landry Fields while the team failed, rather spectacularly, to assert its “smash-mouth” style.

Then, in the fourth quarter, everything changed. It may have been a desperation move by Vogel, but instead of the typical 4th quarter line-up (Hill, Barbosa, Jones, Hansbrough, Amundson), Granger walked out onto the floor in Hansbrough’s place. 3 minutes later George subbed in for Jones. Instead of trying to dictate how the game would be played and press a size advantage he didn’t really have, Vogel went small and matched up with the Knicks. We know the end result. Here’s what we learned in the last 12 minutes that we should have known all along: Our four small guys are better than their four small guys.

While I have no conclusive proof that this game represents a lightbulb moment for Vogel, I certainly hope that it does. Bird and Morway have built a versatile roster that has the ability to succeed with many different lineups and styles of play. Last night we saw Vogel take advantage of that versatility in a way that he’s been reluctant to all season. We can only hope that he carries this new found sense of the urgency and importance of every game and every possession with him throughout the rest of the year.

Who knows? Maybe the next time we see Darren Collison getting posted or Hansbrough guarding a ball-handler at the 3 point line, we won’t have to watch it for 36 long and painful minutes.

Chris Kaman

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Kaman would be a good fit for the Pacers.  He’s a big who can score and block shots, thus filling two of the needs I mentioned yesterday. Kaman’s passing is one aspect of his game that often overlooked, and I believe he could step into the “big man facilitator” role quite adequately.  His per-36 assist numbers are actually higher than Hibbert’s this season (2.6 to 2.0).  Other than his shot-blocking, which is only slightly above average, Kaman does not bring a lot to the table defensively.  When thinking about Kaman joining the Pacers, it seems like he could be the second coming of Brad Miller: a big, ugly country boy who plays the game with an odd mixture of power and finesse. Looking into the future, Kaman is a player who’d likely be open to re-signing in Indiana for market value, if Bird wanted him back.  He’s from Michigan and seems to embrace traditional rural Midwestern values. If he ended the season with the Pacers, he’d be a good second option if some team decided to tender Hibbert an unmatchable offer.

Verdict: Good fit as a talented and versatile big man

Jamal Crawford

Everybody in the NBA knows that Larry Bird wants Jamal Crawford, all that matters now is agreeing on the price (or Price, as it may be).  Crawford definitely fills a need as a shot creator and maker off the bench, and his defense, at least while he was playing meaningful minutes for a good team in Atlanta, is not as bad as it gets made out to be.  There are valid concerns about Crawford.  He’s a chucker: he shoots a lot, and he generally shoots at a low percentage.  He’s having a pretty bad year in Portland (their offense and defense are both better when he’s off the court).  However, Portland’s style is a bad fit for Crawford, and he’s being forced to play out of position at PG about half the time. I also wonder how well he’d mesh with George Hill. To get both guys on the court you’d have to play one out of position at PG or push Crawford up to SF.  Two additional things are worth noting: 1.)Crawford has said all along that intends to test free agency again next season.  With that in mind, he should be highly motivated when playing for a contract on a good Pacer team that’s really only asking him to do the one thing he loves to do: score. 2.)Crawford has scored 50+ points in an NBA game, which is something no current Pacer has ever done.

Verdict: Good fit as a bench scorer, but there are valid concerns.

Michael Beasley

Beasley’s a talented, young combo forward. He can score. He can rebound. He’s a pretty darn good 3 point shooter (42% this season on 2 attempts per game). He’s also an immature head-case who has not shown any statistical improvement since he set foot in the league 4 years ago and has been totally unable to demonstrate that he can help a team win games. While he would fill needs (he’s a big, strong scoring bench SF) for the Pacers and (hopefully) be gone at the end of the season, I seriously doubt Bird would roll the dice on low-impact player with very questionable character.  The combination of Beasley and Lance Stephenson seems especially combustible.

Verdict: Good fit skill-wise, but terrible in every other aspect.

Boris Diaw

Sure, he’s fat and out of shape, but would you be motivated if you were playing for the Bobcats? It looks and sounds like Diaw’s headed for a buy-out and late season free agency, and if he were able to rewind the clock just one year, he’d be a great fit for the Pacers. Diaw’s primary skill is his excellent passing. When he first arrived in the NBA, Atlanta experimented with playing him at PG.  He’s averaged nearly 5 assists per 36 minutes over the course of his career. He’s also a capable scorer who’s consistently averaged 10+ points per game on nearly 50% shooting. He’s not going to help defensively.

Verdict: Good fit, if motivated.

Stephen Jackson

Really? If his name weren’t Stephen Jackson, if he had never assaulted fans in stands, if he had never fired guns into the crisp night air, if he hadn’t quickly warn out his welcome in every city he’s played in…Then I could see the Pacers wanting a veteran with his skill set.

Verdict: Larry Bird would rather cut off his left hand.

Assumptions

1. The Pacers (and probably not any other team in the East) are not going to defeat Miami or Chicago in a playoff series.

Let’s face it, the gap between the Bulls, the Heat, and the rest of the Eastern Conference (or the NBA outside the state of Oklahoma) is insurmountable barring some unforeseen cataclysmic happenstance.  Any realistic season goals for the Pacers are going to stop at winning a first round playoff series, continuing to evaluate the talent on hand, watching that talent develop, and somehow divining a way to move past also-ran status.

2. The Pacers will not make a major move and cannot afford to trade talent for talent.

Keeping the above in mind, the team needs to figure out how to improve without sending out much more than picks and cap space.  Since, as Jared referenced yesterday, the starting lineup is playing at an elite level, and George Hill has been pretty great as well, it seems unlikely that the Pacers will be able to improve upon any of the top 6 spots in their rotation.

3. Depth is good, especially if Frank Vogel is your coach.

So far this season, Vogel seems intent upon using a 10 man rotation with clearly defined positional roles.  It’s hard to know if this is his true preference or a tactic for dealing with a condensed season. Since it’s been his M.O. so far, it would seem that a way forward would be to improve the 7-10 spots on the roster.

4. I am not a GM, and neither are you.

NBA decision-makers, thankfully, operate in a different realm than even the most rabid fans. You and I have no idea what it would take to pry Rajon Rondo away from Boston.  I refuse to speculate on such things. I will not even speculate on what it would take to get any of the players I discuss in future columns. Instead, I will focus on the player and the fit with the roster and leave the trade negotiations to someone else.

Roster Holes

I’m not going to do a complete analysis here.  I’ll just point out, rather quickly, the types of players I think we should be looking for.  This will necessitate a bit of discussion of current players, but, in most instances, I’d like to shy away from saying things like “Player X needs to be replaced/upgraded.” These are presented in no particular order (other than the order they’re in):

1. A big who can do two of the following four things: facilitate the offense, score, block shots, play above average on-ball defense. ‘

Of course, the Pacers have one of these guys (Jeff Foster – excellent defender, screener, and passer) who dresses in a suit nearly ever game.  Neither Lou Amundson nor Tyler Hansbrough can do more than one of these things. Of the four mentioned skills, facilitation may be the most important and noticeably missed. Roy Hibbert and David West are both good passing bigs and our guards get a lot of good looks because of their abilities.  Foster’s ability to facilitate is the reason that our offense does not noticeably suffer when he enters the game.

2. A back-up small forward.

One of the under-mentioned issues for the Pacers this year is that there are only two SF’s on the roster (and one of them is the starting SG). Dahntay Jones has been impersonating one, but when it comes down to it, he’s a 6’5” defensive specialist who’s most memorable performance was turned in guarding Chris Paul during a playoff series. When matched with a big SF, Jones gets overpowered quite easily. When looking at possible playoff opponents, you have to consider the idea that Jones will be asked to guard guys like Carmelo Anthony, Paul Pierce, Hedo Turkoglu, Joe Johnson, and Andre Iguodala – all of whom are bigger and stronger than him. When you combine this with Jones’s atrocious defensive numbers – only Jeff Pendergraph (127) has a worse defensive rating than Jones (104.6) – you begin to see some definite room for improvement.

3. A shot-maker/creator.

This guy can be at any position.  George Hill is the only bench player who is currently putting any pressure on opposing defenses. Whether help comes in the form of a drive-and-kick PG or a back-to-the-basket big man, it doesn’t matter.  There needs to be someone else off the bench whom opposing teams worry about.

That’s all for now.  I’d love for this process to be a bit interactive, so if there’s a player who’s rumored to be available and is realistically acquirable, let me know in the comment section and I’ll take a look at them and let you know my opinion.

We are, of course, talking about Roy Hibbert and the Indiana Pacers. Over the next 23 games, Hibbert would shoot 36% while averaging 9.8 points, 7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.6 blocks. The team finished this stretch with a 6-17 record and a new head coach. Needless to say, it was an incredibly ugly stretch of basketball for Pacer fans that led some to doubt whether the team should move forward with Hibbert in the middle. Hibbert’s play picked up after Frank Vogel took over, but it never again reached the heights of the first 21 games.

This being the case, you’ll have to forgive me if the team’s recent 3 game losing streak (all of which featured sub-par games from Hibbert) looks frighteningly familiar.

To look a little closer let’s use John Hollinger’s Game Score metric. As a point of reference, consider a score of 10 to be an average overall score. Over the first 21 games of the ’10-’11 season, Hibbert had an average game score of 12.75. He was an above average player. He posted 5 single digit game scores. During the next 23 games, he had an average game score of 5.43 and posted single digit scores in 19 of 23 games. It should be noted that Hibbert’s minutes did decrease during this time and that game score is a whole game, rather than a per minute , stat. The decrease in minutes, however, was a result of Hibbert’s ineffectiveness rather than injury or excessive foul trouble.

Through 21 games this season, Hibbert was averaging 14 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.8 blocks with an average game score of 11.6. He had 8 games with single digit game scores. In the last 6 games, Roy has posted 5 single digit game scores. The Pacers have gone 2-4 during that stretch.

As Pacer fans, we all need to start praying to Zeus no horses have been delivered to Banker’s Life Fieldhouse recently.