In Bob Kravtiz’s Sunday Indianapolis Star column into whether or not current Interim-Coach Frank Vogel will be back next season, he made a brief foray into statisics to illustrate the difficulty of the decision. Vogel, he noted, has only 6 wins against teams qualified for this year’s playoffs. And then he stopped. Bob ventured no deeper into the statistical morass.

Sometimes, when folks cite certain numbers and ignore others, for whatever purpose, it can slip right by you. But this? Gee whiz, Bob, didn’t you think readers might want to know how many he has lost against playoff teams? And how that compares to Pacers performance prior to Vogel? It seems like something just as relevant. Is he 6-0? Is he 6-30? Is he, as I presumed, somewhere in between?

I wanted to know so I checked. (I went through the schedule four times and only got a different result once. Damn numbers swamp.)

After yesterday’s loss to the Knicks, the Pacers are now 6-7 against 2010-11 playoff teams since Frank Vogel took over following the 110-89 loss to the Bulls on January 29 at the United Center. That was Jim O’Brien’s last road trip with the team, and an era came to a bumpy, somewhat unexpected stop somewhere on a bleak, frozen shoulder of I-65.

Overall, the Pacers’ record under Vogel is 20-17. So, sure, a record of 6-7 against playoff caliber competition isn’t all that impressive, and I suppose that’s why Bob Kravitz used the figures to illustrate the front office dilemma. Under Jim O’Brien, however, the Pacers’ record this season against playoff teams was 7-19. That’s 7-19 under JOB versus 6-7 under “Happy” Frank Vogel. (I’d tell you what those percentages are, and how they compare, but I’m tired of this little calculator thing.)

One thing for sure … that 7-19 tally probably didn’t contribute much to a front office dilemma over JOB’s retention.

But having satisfied my statistical jones, I have to say … so what? I dug up the numbers I wanted to see, but what’s the relevance going forward? Frank Vogel won’t be interviewing against Jim O’Brien for the next year’s head coach position, will he? Maybe he’ll be interviewing against the ghost of Jim O’Brien — the legend of Jim O’Brien, if you will — but Jim will not be out in the foyer waiting for his time in front of the hiring committee.

So, like many statistics, we can look at this one and feel vindicated (or not) in our assessment of the reality of Frank vs JOB. But like all statistics, it looks backward. Records are all in the past. The Pacers performance in the actual playoffs is going to happen in real time, and will proceed as it proceeds.

The last couple of months’ experience of the Frank Vogel Pacers will surely have some effect on the playoff outcome. Past is prelude, after all. But the relevance of the record of the Jim O’Brien Pacers, however, is diminishing, as the JOB era recedes into a dim image in the rear view mirror. It is recalled, if at all, only for trivial argument. “Did we take a wrong turn there? Did we stay on that road too long?”

At this point, it doesn’t matter.

We’re here already.

Prior to Frank Vogel taking over the head coaching position of the Pacers, the team had developed a fairly stable starting lineup in Collison, Granger, Dunleavy, Hibbert and McRoberts.  That group didn’t start every game, but compared to the changes that Jim O’Brien put the starting roster through in years past, it was the most stable grouping the Pacers have seen in a while.

When Vogel took over, he didn’t mess with that, but he did put together a stable second unit, featuring AJ Price, Hansbrough, Dahntay Jones, Foster, and Paul George.  That was not the rookie mistake.  That was a good move.  Resurrecting Dahntay from the DNP section, and letting the second unit settle in, he helped create ‘the Goon Squad,’ a name the players bestowed on themselves…an indicator of strong morale.

It seemed we had a good solid ten-man rotation.

Those two units played together for the first 11 games under Vogel, and went 8-3.  Then Dunleavy was gone for the season, while the schedule entered a much more difficult phase.  There’s nothing Coach Vogel could do about either one of those unfortunate turns, except to react.  He moved Brandon Rush back into a starting role after Rush’s return from an injury, putting a one-time starter back into a group pretty familiar with his presence, and leaving the Goon Squad intact.  To my way of thinking, that’s the best he could do under the circumstances.

That lineup worked as a ten man rotation for two games…beating Detroit, losing to Utah.  Then the same group, with just four minutes of Lance Stephenson added, lost in OT to Phoenix.  With 14 minutes of Stephenson added in the next game, we beat Golden State.

At that point is where I feel Vogel started making his rookie mistake.  Facing a tough 3-game road trip with Dunleavy out for the season, facing a home return to face the 76ers, (the team we were chasing in the playoff hunt), and then seven of the next nine games coming on the road…at that very crucial point in a young team’s development, he decided to keep screwing about with the roster.

Based on bad feelings about going .500 in the previous four games, or faced with an obligation (?) to get Lance some serious development minutes…he proceeded to make significant changes in the Goon Squad’s rotations, bringing Price in only after Lance’s minutes.

So.  We got stomped by OKC, failed to catch Dallas napping, and lost convincingly at Houston.  And many observed that we were most likely always going to lose those games.  There was no real meaning there, was there?

The home loss that came next, to Philly, apparently did seem significant to everyone, including Vogel.  Never mind that we were without Foster, or that Philly has been beating the top teams in the league lately.  The loss to the 76ers, with the minutes given to Lance disrupting an already disrupted rotation, meant CHANGES MUST BE MADE.

So Tyler and Paul George move to the starters, and Lance moves back (mostly) to the bench.  The result?  We were absolutely made to look bad by the only team in the league with a younger roster than ours, losing 101-75 to the T’Wolves.  People were astounded.  How could that happen?  We’ve followed that up with another never-a-doubt loss in Toronto.  Tyler and Paul George start.  Lance never leaves the pine.

Now we’re heading into a back-to-back with NYC, and I am asking the basketball spirits to move Coach Frank Vogel to restore the 10-man rotation from the beginning of March.  Fill his dreams, spirits.  Move his imagination.  Make him forget working Lance in, at least for now.  Make him restore Tyler and George to the Goon Squad, and pray the chemistry will restabilize.

Maybe it’s too late.  Maybe a restored chemistry wouldn’t be enough to get us through this continuing rough patch with some wins anyway. Maybe griping about the lineup is lame.  Maybe Tyler and PG would just be more discombobulated by leaving the starters.   Maybe some fans will say the heck with it…Tyler and Paul deserve to start and who needs the playoffs anyway?  I don’t feel that way, myself.  And I believe Bird and Vogel when they say they still want the playoffs.

So how about going backwards?  Back to a lineup that’s more familiar to our young roster.  Some mistakes can be fixed before they ruin things, and some can’t.  But I think a return to normalcy (or as close as we can get) is a step backwards in the right direction.

Sometimes the classroom gets out of hand. Sometimes the teacher needs to speak up, get the unruly little jerks back in their seats, and impose some guidance. No lessons are going to get learned when the students are bickering, pursuing their own interests, or even trying to hold class … because there’s a way this is supposed to work, and letting the students do their own thing isn’t it.

The Indiana Pacers, second youngest roster in the NBA right now, need some guidance.

After Wednesday’s blowout loss to the Timberwolves, the Indianapolis Star got second unit point guard A.J. Price’s take on the problem.

“Man to man, we all want to win individually, but we’re not all playing as a team and I think that’s why we’re not winning,” Price said. “Until we come back together as a team, we won’t win.”

“Lately we haven’t been in sync, and we haven’t been together as a unit,” Price said. “That’s why we aren’t winning games.”

Roy Hibbert added his thoughts.

“Teams are adjusting to what we’re doing and we don’t know how to win,” Hibbert said.

Of course they don’t know how to win. They’re the students in this scenario. Under the tutelage of the mean old teacher that used to run the classroom, they reached the point where they were trading skeptical sideways looks with each other, even making faces when the teacher’s back was turned. The old fellow tended to ramble on and on about his pet theories, after all. He would present reams of statistics for the students’ edification. He pushed his own ivory tower schematic of how a classroom is run, lessons successfully learned, tests completed with passing scores, even when the test results consistently placed his class in the lower echelons of academic accomplishment.

That’s why the substitute teacher (something Lester Connor called himself last year when he filled in for O’Brien) was such a breath of fresh air. No more odd educational theories need apply. Our class is back to basics. “Smashmouth,” old-school educating at its finest. Readin’, writin’, and ‘rithmetic.

The kids responded well. Enthusiasm for learning blossomed. Test scores soared.

But at some point, the whole glorious process faltered. We don’t really know why. Did the students start bickering with each other over who was the best student? Did that new kid cause friction? Is the substitute teacher just too inexperienced to keep the students following the curriculum? We don’t know. Even putting our ear to the classroom door reveals nothing but noise that seems inappropriate to a learning environment, but what exactly is all the commotion is about?

Don’t know.

The youth of the team is not the issue. The Timberwolves are even younger, and they put the Pacers out of that particular spelling bee early. What we do know, what is abundantly clear even to those of us with no teaching certificate, is that Teacher needs to step up his game. Soon. Like, now.

And the teacher in this tortured extended analogy, Coach Vogel, says he’s ready to fix the problem.

“Clearly we’re struggling on the offensive end. We’re struggling as a basketball team. We will work until we come out of it, and we will come out of it.”

Coach, teacher, all the concerned citizens of the school system hope you’re up to it. Classroom discipline is not always easy to regain once it’s lost, particularly perhaps for a substitute teacher. The results are going to go a long way toward helping the school board decide if the substitute teacher gets called back next term.

The last one.

Wait a sec.

The Bucks. Yeah, that one. They’re all starting to merge in my memory.

At the same time I was watching the Bucks beat us again, I was occasionally clicking over to watch Indiana University host Wisconsin. The last time I clicked, the score was 43-22 Badgers at around the 17 minute mark of the 2nd half.

And about that time I realized my life is pretty good. Really. Not kidding.

I have a job. The wife loves me. My kids are in college or already graduated. Roof doesn’t leak. Car starts. (I have a roof!) I like the folks I work with … everything’s pretty good.

Yep.

Pretty good. Almost perfect.

In fact, all I’d have to do to be as close to perfect happiness as my neuroses allow…is to quit being a fan of Indiana basketball. That’s all. One simple tweak.

And why not? There’s no percentage in sticking to my guns here.

I can barely stand to watch anymore. I won’t even try to recite a litany of all the classic fail strategies the Pacers have employed this season. And last season. And … yeah. The one before that. You know all the scenarios already. All the three to four game themes of futility. The inevitable roster rearrangement to address the perceived problem, which proceeds to morph into a totally different calamity.

Hey. We have a line-up for that. You know … unless the guys are broke. Eh, we’ll put somebody out there. We’re rebuilding.

It’s even affected my enjoyment of the game in general. I never tune to the west coast games anymore after the Pacers lose. I might see a team playing good ball. And I don’t think I could take that.

I used to enjoy listening to Denari and Buckner on the Pacers broadcasts. Now Quinn just pisses me off, and Denari seems like nothing but a shill. The Pacers web site? Used to enjoy it. Now, that headline writer is starting to irk me. “Pacers’ comeback falls short.” Dude, you’re wearing out the font on that one. (What happened to them? They seemed perfectly adequate when we were competitive. Sorry, guys. Maybe it’s me.) I go to my nice full fridge at half-time, and the snacks have no appeal. I open a carefully selected microbrew, and it sits on the table for ten minutes before I even think to take a drink. What enjoyment could there be in it? I go to work with my amiable coworkers, to do a job I’m good at, and which I enjoy … and they pay me … and if it’s a day after a Pacers game, I’m in a bad mood. It’s getting to the point where the bad mood begins the afternoon before the game. Anticipating the hurt.

And it’s pathetic, because here I am whining about my depression…when my life is great. Those kids in China … (what?) …  You know … those kids in China. That were starving? So you should eat your peas? (Wrong generation?) Those kids. Anyway, you know they’d be overjoyed to have my problems. Now that they’re grown up, and suffering through whatever tragedy we can imagine someone having who lives in a far-off land where life is hard … they’d love to have my problems, right?

Because I don’t really have any. Life is good. Life is darned good. I am fortunate. Except for the state of Indiana basketball.

I guess it’s all about perspective. Think of the lessons of the suffering of Job, rather than the mysteries of the machinations of J’OB. Or maybe it’s cosmic law. No one gets to be 100 percent happy. Read sub-paragraph B of Clause 112 to the 14th Law of Thermodynamics. “If things are otherwise good, your ball team must suck.”

The flip side would be the classic sports stereotype. When times are hard, your team wins the big game and makes everything seem OK for a while.

That sounds about right. It all balances out. Those now grown-up suffering kids in China? They probably follow Chinese pro teams that could beat the Pacers.

Pacers 105 – Raptors 101

With a come-from-a-long-way-behind 105-101 win over the Raptors at Conseco this evening, the Pacers moved to 3-3 in 2010.

Danny Granger scored 23 on 9 of 19 shooting. Troy Murphy had another double-double with 20 points and 16 rebounds. And guards Earl Watson and AJ Price combined for 27 points and 10 assists as Indiana used the same starting line-up for the third game in a row (Murphy, Granger, Hibbert, Watson and Head).

Early on, the Pacers seemed to be following a well-learned script, falling down 12-5 in the first 6:54, at which point Roy Hibbert and Luther Head both had two fouls and were pulled. Hibbert struggled to react to the quicker, smaller Raptor bigs in his short time out there, and only returned to the court for a brief 2-minute stretch in the second quarter before heading to the bench for good.

In his place, back-up center Solomon Jones was effective during his time in the game (tallying 10 points and 9 boards in 17 minutes), while sharing the big man duties with Troy Murphy, Tyler Hansbrough (4 points/7 rebounds) and Danny, who saw extended minutes at the power forward spot. In more good news, Hansbrough seems to have fully recovered from his inner ear infection, falling or stumbling awkwardly no more often than usual.

Within 2 minutes of Hibbert’s departure, the Raptor lead was 8, which is where it eventually ended the 1st period. It seemed that Pacers announcer Chris Denari had already deployed his “eerily similar to other starts” line at least three times by this point, while Quinn Buckner was in full excuse mode (“what happened there was … and you can’t help it … but he’ll get better at that as he gets more used to …”). The Raptors were shooting above 50%, the Pacers around 35% and things were not looking good. The 3-balls were flying, but they weren’t falling, except for off the hands of Murphy, who had 12 of the Pacers’ first 14 points by hitting 4 of his first 5 shots from behind the arc.

Denari was right — this was eerily similar to most of the last dozen broadcasts.

The Pacers showed a little life in the final few minutes of the 1st, but just 4 minutes into the 2nd quarter, the Pacers were down 47-26, and TV viewers were preparing to switch from the game to The Bachelor: On the Wings of Love all across the great state of Indiana — or, at least across the portion of the state where cable providers actually carry Fox Sports Indiana. Just then, Granger was called for half of a double-technical along with back-up Toronto SG Sonny Weems. Seemingly incensed at being equated with Sonny Weems in any fashion, Granger went on a tear and scored 8 of the Pacers next 10 points.

Still, Indy was trailing by 23 with 4:20 left in the first half, but the Pacers finally seemed to pick up some of Granger’s long-awaited focus and went on a 16-6 run to close out the 2nd period down 13 (65-52). During that run, both Jarrett Jack and Chris Bosh seemed to have difficulties with a D-League replacement official, as Jack reportedly asked him if it was his first time refereeing an NBA game after being whistled for his third personal.

With this run, the Pacers worked their own FG% up to a semi-respectable 42%, but Toronto was still shooting 53% at the half.  “They got out in transition, and we weren’t making them work in the half-court,” AJ Price told Mark Boyle’s post-game radio crowd. Austin Croshere described the Pacers’ first half pick-and-roll defense as “porous at best.”

The Pacers managed to bear down on defense in the 3rd period, however, holding the Raptors to just 19 points (after allowing 35 and 30 in the 2nd and 1st, respectively), while positive contributions from Hansbrough, Solomon and Granger helped the Pacers rack up 26 in the quarter.

There were no great runs, just a gradual attrition, as Indiana slowly pecked away at Toronto’s lead.

During one memorable sequence around the 8-minute mark of the 3rd, Earl Watson stole the ball from Jack as he crossed the timeline and broke for an easy lay-up. On the very next play, Earl drew a charge on Jack, who was again trying — and failing — to bring the ball across the line. Watson then dished an assist to Solomon, and stole the ball again when Jack’s replacement attempted to bring the ball up-court.

The Raptors lead was down to 6 at that point and, by the end of the period, Toronto was holding onto a tenuous 84-78 advantage. All told, the Raptors hit only four field goals in the 3rd.

The Pacers push to take the lead took the first 7 minutes of the 4th period — but the tortoise would eventually win this race.

Indiana outscored Toronto 17-8, as Mike Dunleavy scored seven of his 15 in that run. At 92-92, before a Watson three-ball gave the Pacers the lead, Chris Denari, on the FSI broadcast, remarked that this was the first time this year he could remember seeing Dunleavy, Murphy and Granger in the game together.

It seemed to work well because Toronto never regained the lead.

Indiana held an advantage between 2 and 5 points for the remainder of the game as all five Pacers on the floor — Granger, Price, Watson, Murphy and Dunleavy — scored in the last five minutes.

Game Notes:

• Since his Thanksgiving return, Dunleavy has sometimes been a force on the floor and sometimes looked weak and ineffectual. Tonight, he sometimes seemed to be a force on the floor, and sometimes looked weak and ineffectual. When he scored 39 points in a couple of games in the ’07-08 season, he sometimes seemed to be a force on the floor, and sometimes looked weak and ineffectual. Tonight he had 15 points on 5-10 shooting, with 5 boards. Maybe, ultimately, it doesn’t matter what he looks like.

• Troy Murphy’s 20 point, 16 rebound, plus-11 effort in the win marks the first time in weeks that he has not been roundly vilified on Pacers fan boards during a game — whether he played or not. He has now played in five of the Pacers’ 12 wins and 21 of the team’s 25 losses. He is the leading rebounder on the team and the second leading scorer. And he has the team’s worst season plus/minus at -228.

Don’t Call It a Comeback (OK, Do): By The Numbers

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