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Andrew Bogut

By now, you probably saw the amazing, last-second play in which a miraculous pass from Luc Mbah a Moute was tipped in by Andrew Bogut to beat the Pacers. There was only 0.5 seconds left and the score was tied. Indiana likely thought they would play a half-second of defense and then head to overtime, but Bogut had other ideas.

Here it is.

There’s really not a whole lot else to say. Roy Hibbert badly airballed an open shot from the elbow on the previous play that would have put the Pacers ahead by two. Danny Granger hit a huge jumper shortly before that.

Otherwise? It was a sloppy game in which Indiana gave up an insane number of offensive boards, allowing a Bucks team that was shooting horrendously to not only stay in the game but lead by double-digits in the first half.

The Pacers played better after the break, gaining and then relinquishing the lead on several occasions. In the final minute, it really looked like this might be another game in which the team could play ugly and still win — on the road (much like last week’s victory over the Kings).

But, again, Bogut had other ideas.

You can pick apart the Pacers poor play here — and we very well might tomorrow — but for tonight, I’m just going to tip my cap to the Australian, Brandon Jennings (who set the pick on Jeff Foster) and, mostly, Mbah a Moute for executing a play perfectly.

You can also read more on the game from The Indy Star, IndyCornrows, Bucksketball and BrewHoop.

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Game #20 Preview: Buck Hunting

by Jared Wade on December 8, 2010 at 2:49 pm · 0 comments

Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
8:00 pm EST
Bradley Center
Milwaukee, Wisconsin

The 2010-11 Pacers look like the 2009-10 Bucks. Last year, Milwaukee was the darling team that everyone dug, mostly due to its quick, electric young point guard and its fundamentally sound, rapidly evolving center. Well, Brandon Jennings may have had more to do with the Bucks’ rise last year than Darren Collison has for this season’s Pacers, but the speedy floor general along with the still-improving Roy Hibbert have been the biggest factors.

And now, as Milwaukee tailspins amid preseason expectations, the Pacers have taken their moniker as Central Division surprise artists. Interestingly, they are also doing it the same way: with defense. The Bucks were the leagues 2nd best defensive squad last season, only allowing 103.1 points per 100 possessions and only allowing opponents to shoot an eFG% of 48.6% (good for 8th best in the NBA). This year’s Pacers are the 7th best defensive team in the NBA, allowing an even-better 102.8 points per 100 possessions while surrendering an eFG% of 46.8% (good for 3rd best).

This year’s Bucks team is similarly tough in terms of allowing buckets — they are 5th best with 101.8 points per 100. But the reason they are struggling so mightily to win games is that their offense has fallen off a cliff. In terms of both points per possession and eFG%, they are the worst offense in the NBA.

A lot of this can probably be attributed to the struggles of John Salmons. The great Bucks blog Brew Hoop had a good post detailing exactly why Salmons might be playing so much worse than he did for Milwaukee last season. For Pacers fans hoping their team wins tonight, this is the key takeaway.

What does seem clear is Salmons’ importance to the Bucks’ bottom line. The former Miami star has averaged 17.0 ppg, 3.7 apg, and 3.9 rpg on .467/.435/.758 shooting in seven Bucks wins, but just 10.2 ppg, 2.7 apg, and 3.3 rpg on some seriously terrible .318/.306/.771 shooting in 12 losses.

If Indiana can keep Salmons in check tonight in Milwaukee, that would seem to be the first step to beating the Bucks, something the Pacers couldn’t even do on their own court on November 5 — despite the fact that their best player, Andrew Bogut, didn’t even dress that night. In fact, beating the Bucks isn’t something the Pacers have done much of at all even dating back to last season. They were swept in their four meetings last season and are only 3-7 in their last 10 match-ups.

Of course, the November loss came before we knew that this year’s Indy team might be good and before we knew that this year’s Bucks team might be bad. Now, both teams are gleefully or painfully (respectively) aware of their current situations.

Whether this can reverse the recent fortune for Indiana vs. Milwaukee is unknown.

But we will find out in a few hours.

Pacers vs Bucks By the Numbers

Bucks vs Pacers
7-13 (10th) Record (Conf Rank) 10-9 (7th)
5-5 (Home) Home / Road Records 5-4 (Road)
Lost 1 Current Streak Won 1
5-0 Last 5 Head-to-Head 0-5
-2.00 (20th) Point Differential (Rank) +3.00 (9th)
99.6 (30th) Offensive Rating (Rank) 106.0 (18th)
44.1% (30th) eFG% (Rank) 50.8% (10th)
101.8 (5th) Defensive Rating (Rank) 102.8 (7th)
48.7% (11th) Opponent's eFG% (Rank) 46.8% (3rd)
90.8 (23rd) Pace (Rank) 94.6 (8th)

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The Bucks never seemed particularly interested in winning last night. But by failing to take advantage of a disastrous shooting first quarter by Milwaukee (5-for-23), the Pacers were not able to establish themselves as a team worthy of a victory either.

The Pacers got hot in the second quarter, dropping 40 points on 61.1% shooting (11/18). Unfortunately, so did the Bucks — 34 points on 57.1% (12/21). More unfortunately, Indiana apparently drank a bunch of vodka during halftime because they only scored 30 total points in the second half.

With that type of offensive execution, it’s surprising they only lost by four.

As I said before, however, Milwaukee never seemed particularly interested in winning.

If you look at the box score, two of the three usual suspects from last year are the obvious culprits of ineptitude: 38.7% shooting (which drops to an even grosser eFG% of 42.7% when you factor in the 6/24 three-point performance) and 19 turnovers.

The turnovers were particularly problematic early. Six in the first quarter. That’s just sad even if the full-court outlet pass from Dunleavy was a good idea that was poorly executed and one by Danny was clearly just an early-season miscommunication. More than any individual error being cause for condemnation, however, the real sin was committing a combination of blunders at a time when the opposition was struggling so badly that the home team Pacers probably could have delivered a borderline knockout punch against the struggling, Bogutless Bucks had they just finished the first quarter up 28-18 instead of 20-18.

Then again, even had they developed some early-game momentum, that might not have meant anything considering how gross the second half offense was. One exchange between Pacers play-by-play guy Chris Denari and color commentator Quinn Bucker sums it up best.

Denari: “I just don’t like Indiana’s offense right now.”
Quinn: “I don’t particularly care for the last two shots.”

After the game, Coach Jim O’Brien seemed to be on exactly the same page.

“I wasn’t crazy about our offense before the game. I’m not crazy about it after the game,” O’Brien said.

There’s not a ton else to say. We saw it time and time again last season. When you’re offense is sputtering to such an extreme degree, it’s nearly impossible to win a basketball game — particularly when you don’t have an overpowering defense to rely on for stops.

Still, somehow, the Bucks played just as badly for most of the game. So the Pacers did have a shot to win. A good shot.

But they ruined it with bad shots.

I got a bad feeling about how this one would end as soon as Danny hit a step-back 20-footer with 5:07 to play. He came around a screen and pulled up — in space, surely — hitting nothing but twine. It was a fine shot in the situation but he just seemed a little too eager to take it. Again, he’s one of the best jumpshooters in the league, he dribblef himself into a good position to take a jumpshop and he drilled the jumpshot. It was a good shot.

But it was almost like watching someone hit an 16 in black jack with the dealer showing a 4 and catch a 5. OK, you got away with it this time, but eventually, if you keep that up, the percentages are not going to work out so well.

Much to my delight, however, the next offensive possession had MDJ and Hibbert running a sweet, albeit slightly awkward, two-man game on the right side. Dun originally had the ball on the wing and was urging Roy to bully his man on the block for an entry pass. Roy didn’t seem to get that and instead came up to set a screen. Dunleavy used the pretty poor pick pretty poorly and eventually just tossed the ball over to Roy in the elbow extended area. All this time-consuming meandering did very little to put the Pacers in a good position to score, but a timely backdoor cut by Dunleavy and stellar pass by Roy turned the whole thing into an easy layup.

This is what good offenses do.

They go to their strengths (Roy in the post, Mike making entry passes) and even when those strengths don’t work out as planned (this certainly was not scripted), the percentages lead to buckets. Fact is that it’s hard for big men (particularly “big men” on Milwaukee not named Andrew Bogut) to guard Roy Hibbert. And another fact is that Mike Dunleavy is a borderline-elite passer/decision-maker on the wing. Isoltate that situation enough times and, more often than not, things will work out in the end.

But they never went back to that. Or anything really resembling it.

Two straight turnovers on the subsequent possessions left Indy, which had taken a 85-84 lead on the Dunleavy layup, down 90-85 and looking increasingly desperate and out of sorts.

Do I need to tell you what happened next? Danny took a pull-up jumper. He missed. Next trip down? Danny took a pull-up three. He missed.

A few nice defensive possessions, a timely Darren Collison steal and some free throws pulled the Pacers within 2 points, with the ball, with 38 seconds to play. Somehow, they had a chance to tie — perhaps even win.

Then Danny missed a jumper.

Epilogue: The Bucks rebounded Granger’s miss, and Indy opted not to foul down two with just 26-27 seconds left to play. Some might question this strategy, but I actually was fine with it. It’s not like Milwaukee was some team that had been executing well in the half court, and it’s pretty hard to use up more than 22 seconds of the shot clock and still get a decent look. So if you can get a stop, you probably get a board with 4-5 seconds left and can advance the ball to half-court down 2. You foul there — probably fouling a guard — and you’re hoping they miss. Then, unless you score with 0.0 on the clock, the other team still gets a chance to win anyway after you get a bucket. Regardless of strategy semantics, Hibbert tried to take a charge with 5 seconds to play — and probably did — but it was called a block. Game over.

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Over on NBA Playbook, Sebastian Pruiti broke down a key play from late in Indiana’s loss to Milwaukee yesterday. Honestly, when a team that has won 11 of its last 12 games has a home date with the Pacers, the real “game clinching” play is probably the opening tip, but Sebastian does give us a nice look at how the Bucks pounded the final nail into the coffin.

Here’s the set-up:

When the Bucks entered the fourth quarter against the Pacers, it looked like it was going to be an easy 12 minutes.  The Bucks were leading by 14 at the start of the fourth, and have only allowed 62 points to the Pacers.  However, the Pacers decided to make things interesting in the fourth quarter.  In fact, with 2:19 left a Solomon Jones dunk made the score 90-94, cutting the lead to 4 points.  The Bucks were reeling and they needed a bucket to try and put the game away.

Sebastian then shows exactly what happened in full detail, but the gist is that Solomon Jones and Brandon Rush collectively misread/mishandled a simple up-screen from John Salmons that freed Andrew Bogut for a wide-open bucket at the rim.

Rush, by an large, is a pretty good defender — especially by this roster’s standards. He guards his man rather well when he has the ball and, as we saw in the Laker game during the last West Coast trip, he definitely has the chops to slow down even elite scorers.

But he still does slip up on a lot of the more nuanced stuff. He doesn’t fight through screens consistently and often gets caught napping or just out of position. Veterans are all too often able to find free space while he is guarding them by employing some relatively run-of-the-mill cuts. Sometimes, they don’t even need a screen to get open for a good look.

Of course, this probably isn’t the best representation of Brandon failing in this regard — Solomon simply cannot allow a guy like Bogut to get that much separation so close to the hoop. Most of this bucket is probably on Mr. Jones. Still, Brandon is too often involved in multi-player defensive break downs like this, and his defensive development is not going to progress much beyond where it currently is if he cannot make better off-the-ball decisions/reads.

He seems to have all the foot speed, strength and soft skills to learn how to do everything on the defensive end better. He looks like he may have the potential to be a key perimeter presence in a very good defense some day. That, combined with his shooting and his ability to get to the hoop on occasion is what made a lot of Indy fans glad that the rumored deadline deal with the Bobcats never happened.

The rest of this year and the 2010-11 season will be all about him putting it all together.

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