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Boston Celtics

Game #27 Preview: Expect a Blowout

by Jared Wade on December 22, 2009 at 11:36 am

Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics
Tuesday, December 22
7:30 PM EST
TD Banknorth Garden place
Boston, Massachusetts

Pacers	@	Celtics
9-17 (12th)	Overall Record	21-5 (1st)
3-10	Home / Road Records	9-4
3-7	Record Last 10 Games	9-1
Lost 3	Current Streak	Won 1
4-6	Last 10 Head-to-Head	6-4
-3.85 (25th)	Avg Scoring Margin	+9.54 (1st)
97.4 (22nd)	Points Per Game	101.5 (13th)
100.7 (26th)	Offensive Rating	110.4 (6th)
43.3% (28th)	FG%	49.4% (1st)
47.1% (26th)	eFG%	53.8% (2nd)
101.2 (21st)	Opponent's PPG	91.9 (1st)
104.6 (10th)	Defensive Rating	100.0 (2nd)
44.5% (8th)	Opponent's FG%	43.9% (3rd)
48.0% (6th)	Opponent's eFG%	47.0 (2nd)
96.7 (2nd)	Pace	91.6 (24th)

Off Rating: pts / 100 possessions Def Rating: pts allowed / 100 possessions
eFG%: FG% accounting for 3PA being worth more Pace: avg possessions per game

I’ll actually be at the game tonight so be sure to follow all my Twitter updates from @8pts9secs live from the site of this probable ass-kicking. The Pacers played perhaps their best game of the year when they knocked off Boston’s finest in November, so I suppose it is possible that this lowly Indy squad has the keys to the Celtics rollerskates.

But the more logical side of my brain thinks that the much more likely case is that (a) the Pacers had a great night the last time these two teams met, (b) the NBA is weird, and (c) these now-way-more-dominant-looking Celtics will finish the season with a 3-1 record over a team this bad.

I mean, just look at the numbers above. Even if you aren’t that familiar with some of the advanced numbers — or simply disregard them as poppycock — there are more firsts on the Celtics side than a full day’s worth of comments on Ball Don’t Lie. (Zing! That’s a burn, Skeets and Dwyer.) And the Pacers side features a whoooooole lot of categories where they rank in the mid-to-late 20s.

The positives for Indy all come on the defensive side of the court, but even their decent numbers pale in comparison to Boston’s defensive prowess. The Celtics are either the best or second-best (to the Lakers) defensive team by most quantitative metrics. The play slow and don’t let the opposition score many points. In fact, they only give up precisely 1 point per possession. (Thus, their defensive rating of 100.0 points per 100 possessions.)

Meanwhile, the Pacers only manage to score 1 point per possession. (Thus, their offensive rating of 100.7 points per 100 possessions.) And while this is a really pathetic output for an NBA offense, think about this: They have put up such terrible numbers despite the fact that 11 of their 26 games have come against the wretched defenses of Toronto, Memphis, Sacramento, Golden State (twice), New Jersey (twice), New York (twice) and Washington (twice) — teams that rank 30th, 28th, 26th, 25th, 23rd, 22nd and 20th in their ability to prevent the opposition from scoring.

We’re already 26 games deep in the season, so the schedule has started to even out for the most part. Indeed, the Pacers has also faced some elite defenses as well, going up against Boston, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Dallas, Orlando and Portland (all of which are in the top 10). But with 11 games facing bottom-of-the-barrel defenses vs. only 7 games facing top top-of-the-barrel defenses, it means that Indy’s atrocious offensive stats could actually (somehow) still get worse as the schedule continues.

Merry Christmas.

Five Other Things

(1) The statistical disparity is obviously much less drastic than the personnel disparity here. Indiana is likely going to need some unusually poor shooting nights out of at least a few of The Big 3 Plus Rondo & Perk if they expect to win.

(2) KG looked depressingly old and in-agile (perhaps a word) early in the season to the point that I made a joke at some point during Boston’s terrible near-loss to the Knicks where I misappropriated the quote “Man, KG looks really old” to Tim Duncan (who was looking even older at the time.) And while Garnett certainly couldn’t be mistaken for a 24-year-old, he does look a lot more mobile of late — and has been much more productive, shooing an impressive 64.2% in 9 December games on his was to 17.4 ppg in just 30 mpg.

(3) In case you missed it, the Celtics just recently finished an 11-game win streak. So regardless of one minor stumble of late (they lost to Philly by 1), they are playing the best basketball of any team in the Association.

(4) In good news, the Celtics blew out Minnesota on Sunday and are likely looking ahead to their Friday bout with the reigning Eastern Conference champion Magic. Considering that game is not only a marquee national TV match up with Orlando on Christmas but that it kicks off an onerous three-games-in-four-nights stretch for Boston — in addition to the fact that the players may have a lot of holiday/family thoughts on their minds even today — this has all the makings of a proverbial “trap game.” If the Pacers come out blitzing and play an inspired first half, it’s possible that they can convince the Celtics that putting forth the energy needed for a comeback is not worth the effort. If so, maybe this can become the new Pacers marketing slogan. “The Indiana Pacers: Where Hoping that Santa Claus and Dwight Howard Distract Our Opponents Happens.”

(5) Rajon Rondo is probably a lot better than you realize. This kid is special. I’m both afraid of what he might do tonight and curious as to what it might be like to have an elite point guard. Miss ya, Mark Jackson.

Related Topics: Boston Celtics, Game #27, Game Previews

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Bird on His Long-Term Plan, The Brawl

by Jared Wade on November 21, 2009 at 5:13 pm

Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe recently tracked down Larry Legend for an interview that led to a feature on Bird in yesterday’s paper. Since it’s written for Boston readers, it focuses mostly on Larry’s Celtic past and the most entertaining part coming from, as John Karalis of Red’s Army notes, a story about Bill Walton drinking Wild Turkey by himself all night and into the morning in Larry’s kitchen after the 1986 Cs won the NBA Finals.

For Pacers fans, the most interesting quote comes about the front office’s oft-discussed long-term plan to finalize the franchise turnaround since the fallout from the Malice at the Palace.

As for his 2009 Pacers, Bird said, “We’re rebuilding and people tend to forget that. We have a plan, and after next year we’re going to have a lot of money and I want to get a core of guys here to build with and hopefully take seven or eight of ’em with us going forward, and if we can do that, I think we’ll be better.’’

The Pacers are still recovering from the melee at The Palace of Auburn Hills in 2004.

“It changed everything,’’ said Bird. “It hit harder here than you can ever imagine. It not only killed our fan base, but everything we tried to do that year to win. We felt we were very talented. It just stopped on that night. We had a decent bench and good players and felt we were going to make a great playoff run, but it all stopped.’’

Interesting.

I’m sure he’s alluded to it before, but this is the first time I can recall Larry saying something as straight-forward as “we’re going to have a lot money” in the 2011 Summer, which suggests that there probably won’t be any big moves happenign before then. Just given the fact that, aside from Danny, the bulk of payroll is full of non-expiring deals for at least marginally overpaid players that no other GMs particularly want (MDJ, Troy, TJ, Jeff) or young, low-salaried players that the Pacers probably aren’t shopping, I wasn’t expecting any major moves until Troy, MDJ, TJ and Tinsley’s deals come off the books anyway. But it’s interesting to hear Bird talk publicly about his plans to have “a lot of money.” I’m sure he’s mentioned such sentiments before, so I’m not saying this is some be revelation or anything, but it is a little nugget of info to remember.

Unfortunately, 2011 is a ways away, and the club will be largely treading water until some sort of significant talent infusion occurs, but Pacers fans have waited this long — what’s another 18 months? Ultimately, it’s the only operating philosophy that makes sense.

In other news, speaking of the Celtics, I spoke in depth about Larry’s former team with the aforementioned John Karalis of Red’s Army on the latest episode of my new podcast “Talking About Practice.” The podcast is officially being done for my NBA-wide blog Both Teams Played Hard and will cover the entire Association, but my goal is to try to make it as Pacer-related as possible as well. For many episodes, I’ll try to get a guest who can talk about our upcoming opponent or people who can just talk Indy in general. Karalis for instance discusses the Pacers win over Boston during our conversation.

You can click the “Talking About Practice” graphic to the right ( ———> ) for the RSS feed for the podcast, check back regularly at BTPH (there will be a very good Episode #3 up on Monday) or subscribe through iTunes.

Let me know what you think or what types of Pacer discussion you would like to hear about.

Talking About Practice

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Game #7 Recap: Making the Most of the Moment

by Tim Donahue on November 16, 2009 at 12:46 am

We’ve been here before. Indy Cornrow’s spstevenson nicely outlines the parallels between the 4-3 starts for this year and last. However, he feels something different, and so do I:

So it feels the same as last year, right? Nah, I don’t think so. As I am screaming at the TV waiting patiently for the Pacers to hold on in the final minutes last night, I got the feeling that this wasn’t just luck. Maybe this team is different from last year.

NBA regular season games are just like days. They begin, and they end. In between, time passes and a series of events occur. Most of these events are repetitive, and sometimes they can create a monotonous rhythm that make it difficult to tell one game from another.

Within each game, there are moments. Flashes of something memorable — perhaps even special. They bring fans out of their seats or leave them cradling their heads in despair. As a recent NBA commercial noted, they are at once inspiring and demoralizing.

One of those moments occurred last night with the clock clicking through the 10 minute mark of the fourth quarter. After a shaky first half left the Pacers trailing by nine, the team responded with a dominant third quarter. A Brandon Rush three with 0:01 on the clock gave the Pacers a 5-point lead entering the final stanza. The Celtics, being the championship caliber team that they are, opened the fourth quarter with a 7-2 run to tie the game and set up our moment.

Pacer rookie Tyler Hansbrough tried to make a series of post moves — or he had a seizure, it’s difficult to tell — before putting up what could generously be described as a weak fadeaway. It was erased, with extreme prejudice, by Shelden Williams, who then beat Bro Hands down the floor to receive an alley-oop from Ray Allen and give the Cs an 88-86 lead. The relatively sizable contingent of Boston fans in Conseco went nuts, and the Pacers were forced to take a time out.

So, why in the world am I highlighting a moment that is so clearly inspirational for the Celtics and demoralizing for the Pacers? Because while a moment is over in an instant, its meaning is not yet defined. With the exception buzzer beaters, moments are defined by what happens after them. Moments become what the people involved can make of them.

Indiana made that moment the spot that they would make their stand. Less than a minute of game time after the time out, the Pacers had scored five points and grabbed a lead they would not relinquish. Instead of shrinking, they attacked, recapturing the intensity and pressure that they had brought to bear during their impressive third quarter. It was not the young Pacers who wilted, but the proud Celtics. It was not the Pacers who lost their composure, but the Celtics.

As the game started to slip away, the Celtics became chippier and more plaintive. Kendrick Perkins and Doc Rivers earned technicals that helped push the lead from one to four. The attack continued as O’Brien repeatedly called for Dahntay Jones (12 points, 2 assists, and 8 FTAs in the fourth) to isolate and exploit an injured Paul Pierce. The lead reached 11. And though the Celtics cut it to 6 a couple of times, the Pacers grip on the game seemed only to get stronger.

Attack, Attack, Attack

It is still important to keep things in perspective. The Indiana Pacers have not suddenly established themselves as a contender. They still will have a long, tough struggle to even make the playoffs. However, less than two weeks ago, things were very shaky. They had started the season 0-3. Worse yet, they had not been even vaguely competitive in their two home games. The team was chippy, and their starting backcourt (Ford and Rush) was horrible.

Even their three-game winning streak coming into last night’s game was viewed with a good deal of skepticism. The teams they defeated (Knicks, Wizards and Warriors) were far from a murderer’s row, and the offense had still been very spotty.

But, last night was different. It was a glimpse into what could be. The third quarter last night was as perfect as this Pacers team is likely to get. For the quarter, they posted an offensive rating of 149 and a defensive rating of 83.9. More importantly, the second half illustrated how successful the aggressive philosophy being preached by Coach Jim O’Brien can be. The question is always sustainability. Can they keep it up?

Last season, the only Pacer that really had the attack mentality that is so valuable in such a system was Jarrett Jack. His loss is a quality loss, but the new faces may make up for it with quantity. Luther Head, Earl Watson and Tyler Hansbrough each bring a great deal of intensity and a willingness to battle. Each has made good contributions so far. However, Dahntay Jones is clearly the most glowing example of this new attitude.

These guys all attack, attack, attack. The great part is that it’s clearly having a positive influence on some important Pacers. Roy Hibbert is becoming more confident and, subsequently, a far more effective and important piece of this team. T.J. Ford has become more comfortable with his role and is working better with his teammates. Brandon Rush has relaxed and become more aggressive defensively and on the boards and, as a result, become more confident with his shooting.

Perhaps most importantly, Danny Granger is growing to trust these new faces. He is no longer forcing the action, and he’s regained his shooting touch (50% overall and from three the last two games). He’s playing a more complete game, grabbing 16 boards against the Warriors and adding 4 assists, 3 steals and 1 block to his 29 points and 6 boards last night.

What Will the Pacers Make of This Moment?

Perhaps we are seeing the coalescing of a playoff team. Maybe, just maybe, this year’s core is establishing itself in unexpected places. The Pacers have a very favorable early schedule. This week brings them a back-to-back against the currently winless Nets and the currently incompetent Knicks. This will be a good test of their focus and ability to beat bad teams.

Next Friday, they’ll get to test themselves against the elite again, as LeBron James and the Cavaliers come to town. That will mark the first 10 games of the season, and it will be a nice place for a progress report.

They say you can’t win championships (or make the playoffs) in November and December, but you sure can lose them. The 2009 Pacers finished 10 games under .500 and three games out of the playoffs. They left December 2008 sitting 11 games under .500.

This week is important.

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