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Cap & Trade

The official salary cap number for the 2010/11 season was just announced — and it is provides some good news for Pacers fans.

Most recently projected to be about $56 million, the final tally is actually $58.044 million.

Indiana is already well above the cap, but this means the luxury tax threshold (the number that is essentially a hard ceiling for a cash-strapped team like the Pacers) is also higher — which, at $70.307 million, gives the Pacers a few more options this Summer to add talent.

It doesn’t allow them to be real players in the free agent market, but they now have at least $2.35 million to mess around with, according to ShamSports. Now, this number does include the rookie deal for Paul George, but does not account for the Pacers’ looking-more-and-more-like-a-steal, second-round pick Lance Stephenson or looking-like-he-could-make-the-team-maybe, second-round pick Magnum Rolle. Second-round pick contracts can be negotiated individually so it’s tough to tell exactly how much more those two, if signed, will account for, but we can expect them to each make well under $1 million. (For reference, Spurs 2009 #37 pick Dejuan Blair reportedly made $850,000 last year, Hornets 2009 #43 pick Marcus Thornton reportedly made $457,588 and Rockets 2009 #44 pick Chase Budinger reportedly made $725,000.) This number also does include some non-fully-guaranteed money for Josh McRoberts and AJ Price, however — although cutting both players tomorrow would only save Indiana about $1.1 million combined, so I wouldn’t expect Larry Bird to axe two fan favorites for such measly savings (unless AJ’s injury isn’t progressing at all by opening night).

If you do all that math (seriously, don’t bother) basically, what this all means is that the Pacers are free to use as much of the mid-level exception (worth $5.765 million) as they choose to sign new players. This is no different than before, but if they can pull off a trade or two in the next few weeks that has them shedding a few million dollars and inching further and further away from the dreaded luxury tax, they might now actually be able to use most of that figure instead of less than half of it.

If they make, I dunno, the completely hypothetical and terrible deal of, say, Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster for Elton Brand, the Pacers would free up another $2.3 million in cap room. Add this to the, say, $1.4 million left over after signing the rookies and the Pacers would have $4 million to try to entice Ray Felton, JJ Redick, Anthony Morrow or Nate Robinson. Trade TJ Ford for someone else who makes a little less than he does and Indy could even get up to around $5 million to play with. Obviously, it would also free them up to make any trade where they took back a little salary rather than just sign someone outright as well.

In short — and I’m completely burying the lede here — this higher-than-expected cap number gives the Pacers a little bit more flexibility to improve this Summer in free agency, if they start getting creative, but it doesn’t really do all that much.

Still, it’s a good thing.

As my pappy always used to say, having an additional few million dollars of salary cap flexibility is better than not having it.

baltic avenue

Don’t get too excited — the Pacers are still highly hamstrung by the salary cap. But, still, putting some houses on Baltic is better than owning the Water Works.

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On Friday, Chris Sheridan reported some positive news regarding next year’s salary cap figure:

The New York Knicks and other teams hoarding salary-cap space for this summer’s free-agent market received surprisingly good news Friday when they were told at the league’s board of governors meeting that the 2010-11 cap is projected to be $56.1 million.

That figure was $2 million to $3 million more than most teams had been expecting and $5.7 million more than the league forecast last July as a worst-case scenario.

This is somewhat exciting news for some teams, including the New York Knicks, and it will make for a more interesting summer for NBA fans in general.   Larry Coon gives his view of what it means to the much anticipated Free Agent Summer of 2010 over on ESPN.

For the Pacers, this news could be considered more relieving than exciting.  This new cap figure means that the Luxury Tax threshold will be at $68 million, instead of the the previously projected $65 million.  If you include the $5.5 million cap hit remaining for Jamaal Tinsley, Indiana has a cap figure for the 2010-2011 season of about $65.7 million before signing any of their draft picks.

Though the Pacers final draft position is yet to be determined, it is safe to assume that they will be picking 10th (87% chance).  The rookie salary scale for the #10 pick this year is about $1.9mm, but the player can be signed for anywhere between 80 and 120% of that number.  The overwhelmingly standard practice is to sign for 120%, so this will add about $2.2 million.

The Pacers have their own 2nd round draft pick, and it is possible that they will get Dallas’ 2nd round pick (from the Shawne Williams trade).  Dallas has until June 1st to decide whether to give us their pick from this year or next.  Since this year’s pick would be #57, I believe it’s safe to assume that they’ll go ahead and give us the pick.

If we assume that the Pacers sign their #10 pick, and both 2nd round picks at the league minimum of just under $0.5mm each ($0.9mm combined), that would put their total committed salary of $68.9 million, or about $0.9 million over the tax threshold.

Fortunately for the Pacers, the teams actual salary is based on their payroll as of the last day of the season, so they can go into the season over the threshold, and still avoid the tax.  The good news about the higher cap is that the Pacers should be able to use the 125% + 100k exception to reduce their payroll by the $1.0mm or so necessary.  That rule says that they could send out up to 125% + $100k more in salary in a trade than they take back.  They could also strike a deal with a team under the salary cap to trade a player and take no salary back.

Had the cap stayed at the lower projections, the Pacers would have been forced to make a deal similar to the Harping trade Utah made earlier that season.  In that trade, Utah was forced to package rookie guard Eric Maynor to get Oklahoma City to take on Harpring’s salary.  It did save Utah $10 million, but it cost them a promising young prospect.

At the higher cap/tax number, the Pacers are no longer facing sending out a future 1st or a Roy Hibbert to get someone to take one of our big expiring contracts to get under the tax.  They can either use the 125% exception, as noted above, or they could make a smaller deal.  For example, they could trade Solomon Jones and his $1.5mm contract, along with a future 2nd rounder to some team under the cap (the $56.1 million cap, not the $68.0 million tax) for cash considerations or the rights to some International Player who will likely never play in the NBA.

Of course, should the Pacers end up in the top three (a scant 4% chance), then that would increase their cap/tax issue by anywhere between $1.9 and $2.9 million.  Of course, that’s what we call one o’ them there “good” problems to have.

For more detail, please visit our Salary Central.

Monopoly_Luxury_Tax-T-link

Like the Pacers, we at 8pts9secs wanted to avoid this luxury tax.  I would have put up a picture of a cap, but I didn’t want to piss anybody off.


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The best news for Pacers fans this weekend was not even Pacers-related. It was about money. Specifically, it looks like the NBA’s wallet is not being quite as hard hit as expected so far this season.

This season’s NBA ticket revenues have not dropped as much as the league office projected over the summer. The league expected a 6% to 7% drop in ticket sales but there has been only a 1.7% drop to date.

Attendance is flat or ahead of last season’s pace in the majority of NBA arenas. The Nets and Pistons account for most of the small overall decline.

“The fact that we’re only down roughly 1.7% going into tonight’s games, I’m pleased about,” said NBA executive Chris Granger.

This doesn’t mean that the NBA is out of the woods yet, but if tickets keep selling ahead of the league’s preseason projected pace then next year’s salary cap, which was expected to drop significantly, will likely not fall to such a degree that the Pacers will forced to make salary dumping moves that they wouldn’t otherwise make.

shrinking NBA salary cap

The background here is that, given the ongoing economic downturn, the NBA expected its revenue to plummet across the league this year. Not only was attendance expected to dwindle, but this in addition to other sluggish returns had league execs projecting a significant drop in the all-important “basketball-related income” figure, which is what defines what the following year’s salary cap (and, thus, the luxury tax threshold) will be.

The 2009-10 salary cap had already gone backwards (from $58.7 million per team in 2008-09 to $57.7 per team this year), but that drop was not nearly as large as what the NBA was projecting for 2010-11. (See chart on right, courtesy of ESPN, for recent cap history.)

As ESPN’s Marc Stein put it:

The official league memorandum, obtained by ESPN.com, forecasts a dip in basketball-related income in the 2009-10 season of 2.5 percent to 5 percent, which threatens to take the 2010-11 cap down some $5 million to $8 million from last season’s $58.7 million salary cap.

A significant drop for the luxury-tax threshold is also projected going into the summer of 2010. If basketball-related income drops by 2.5 percent in 2009-10, league officials are projecting a 2010-11 salary cap of $53.6 million and a luxury-tax line of $65 million.

If BRI, as it is referred to in the NBA, decreases by 5 percent, teams would be looking at a $50.4 million salary cap and a luxury-tax line of $61.2 million in 2010-11.

“Teams should be aware of this projected BRI decrease,” reads the memo, “and plan accordingly.”

That “plan accordingly” aspect is what many small-market fans have been fearing. If the 2010-11 luxury tax was set at $61.2 million, the Pacers would already be over that line by around $4 million. Being over by that much would require owner Herb Simon to not only hand over $8 million to the league but would hit him with the proverbial “double-whammy,” as he would also be forfeiting the end-of-the-year payout that all the teams below the luxury tax receive — a check that equaled nearly $3 million last year.

So if next year’s luxury tax was set as low as the worst-case league projection of $61.2 million, Herb and Larry Bird would either (a) have to find a way to shave more than $4 million off of next year’s payroll (something easier said than done), or (b) bite the bullet and lose roughly $11 million (the $8 million in tax Herb would have to pay in tax plus an estimated $3 million he would not get back from the league.) For a guy who has been hemorrhaging untold tens of millions over the past decade on this team, asking him to lose another #11 million — on top of the $65 million for next year’s projected salary and whatever other enormous costs it takes to run an NBA team — would be asking quite a bit.

Fortunately, however, that mini-doomsday scenario looks a little less likely in lieu of recent news.

And that’s a good thing

A very, very good thing.

In related news, the Pacers are one of the teams whose attendance has dropped — so things aren’t all peaches and cream in Conseco. Last year, Indy averaged a lowly 14,182 fans per home game, which was worse than every other franchise except for Memphis (12,745) and Sacramento (12,571) . This year, reported attendance is down to 13,578 (which is, again, “worsted” by only Memphis and Sacto). The difference of 600 people per night isn’t going to make or break the team’s bank account, but any drop is obviously a negative and if the team gets worse — a definite possibility — than so might the attendance numbers.

So while today’s leaguewide ticket sale numbers are good — and the more important — news, let’s also be sure to keep an eye on the team’s ticket sales.

pacers conseco attendance

She’s still here at least. (Photo: Sam Riche)

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