In the next 720 seconds, Indiana would scored 13 total points. And what with New York dropping 23 in the final quarter, those of you following along with this math problem at home should realize that the Knicks won.

In addition to the mind-blowing offensive futility down the stretch — the Pacers didn’t score a single point in the final 3:30 of the game — the most glaring reason for the loss was Carmelo Anthony’s game-winning shot. The Knicks had the ball down one with 13 ticks to play. They isolated Melo on the wing. Despite some good positional defense by Danny Granger, Billups got the ball to Anthony. He wasted little time, took one quick dribble, rose up and stuck a dagger in Danny’s eye.

The Pacers had a chance to win, but Granger couldn’t get off clean look and his eerily-similar-to-his-last-game-winner-vs-New-York try was blocked by the aforementioned Melo. A few Pacers looked like they might be able to get a tip in but it didn’t work.

Ballgame.

All of this was very dramatic, but as mentioned, it was the inability of the Pacers to convert on any of their 9 previous possessions that was the downfall. Worse than not just converting, Indiana turned the ball over on 5 of these chances. Even worse still was the Pacers penultimate possession of the game. Up 1 and coming out of a timeout with 39 seconds left, Darren Collison basically just dribbled around above the three-point line for the entire shotclock. They tried to run a useless pick-and-roll momentarily, but it eventually just turned into a Collison top-of-the-key iso on Billups. Darren herked and jerked a little bit, but Billups stuck right with him and DC put up one of the worst shots anyone attempted all day in the NBA.

Ultimately, this game doesn’t matter in the standings. The Pacers are in the playoffs and will be playing the Bulls. After the game, however, you could see just how disappointed the team was that they left this one slip away. The team had been on a good, confidence-building run prior to this loss. They still have a chance to enter the postseason on a positive note if they can knock off Orlando on Tuesday, but beating the Knicks for a third straight time down the stretch of the schedule likely would have done wonders for their collective mentality heading into the Bulls series.

Just another lost opportunity in a season full of em, I suppose.

Related posts:

1. Game #9 Recap: The One Where The Pacers Forget There Are Two Halves to an NBA Game
2. Game #56 Recap: Hellish Hansbrough Helps Pacers Escape Meltdown
3. Game Recap #37: Pacers Beat the Best National Basketball Association Team in Canada

(This image of JR Smith is entirely unrelated, but I included it for obvious reasons. via NBA Offseason)

Sebastian Pruiti of NBA Playbook broke down Denver’s commitment to finding Carmel in spot-up situations last night. It’s just a fantastic breakdown of all 8 spot-up jumpers he canned last night so you should go read the whole thing.

Here’s a taste.

The way that Carmelo Anthony was used against the Pacers was completely different than the way he has been used over the course of this season.  29.7% of Anthony’s possessions against the Pacers were possessions labeled by Synergy as “Spot-Ups,” while just 18.5% of Anthony’s possessions used were ISO sets.

Instead of just giving the ball to Anthony and watching him pivot and work out of the ISO against the Pacers, the Nuggets used Carmelo Anthony off of the basketball, ran action involving other players, and forced the defense to make a decision.  Specifically, the Nuggets ran pick and rolls with Carmelo Anthony on the opposite side of the court.  5 of the 8 Spot-Ups that were ran for Anthony came this way.  This forced the defense to decide whether or not to sink in on the help man or stick with Carmelo Anthony.

He includes screen shots breaking down the plays and videos that show Danny Granger, Brandon Rush and Paul George all getting exposed by Denver’s pick-and-rolls.

Here’s one in which Rush is caught sleeping helpside and, shockingly, can’t recover 30 feet to close out on Melo to bother his three-point shot.

Related posts:

1. Game #6 Preview: Pacers Face Tired Nuggets
2. Game #3 Preview: The One Where The Pacers Try Not to Get Smacked in the Mouth by Melo

The Nuggets played in Chicago last night, so that is a good omen for a Pacers team looking to snap a two-game losing streak. The bad news could be that Denver lost a tough one to the Bulls and are probably looking for someone to take it out on.

Given the “will they/won’t they” trade Carmelo talk that’s been going on for what seems like eons, this Denver team is not exactly the rock-solid squad that won 53 games last season and won the Northwest Division. Another plus is that, even with their 2009-10 solidarity, last year’s Nuggets were pretty bad on the road (19-22) and not as dominant as you would expect against the Eastern Conference (19-11).

The big story line for the Pacers tonight is obviously Brandon Rush. His five-game suspension is over and while he will not be joining the starting lineup (Coach Jim O’Brien “decided against it because he likes how well the starting unit has played defensively”), he is expected to play significant minutes. O’Brien told Mike Wells that, with Rush back, the rotation expands from nine guys to ten and the he “welcome[s] his ability to space the court.”

Other than that, the Pacers just need to improve on their ball control and overall offensive execution. The team shot 38.6% against Milwaukee the other night and 31.5% against Philly in their previous loss. Indy’s defense hasn’t been that bad, but if they can’t find a way to shoot at least 42% or so tonight, you can probably expect this to become a three-game losing streak.

Here are a few player-specific things to look for out of Denver this evening:

Nene – The big Brazilian missed three straight games with a groin strain before returning last night against Chicago. I didn’t see much of that game so I can’t really speak to his mobility, but groins don’t heal quickly so hopefully Hibbert can take advantage of a sore center playing on the second night of a back-to-back. UPDATE: Nene did tweak the groin a little last night. May not play tonight even possibly.

Al Harrington – The two-time Pacer has scored in double-digits in every game so far this year. His shooting percentages haven’t been great and he has been taking a ton of threes so expect his offense to either really hurt Indiana — or really hurt Denver. Still, he has been crashing the boards — and Indy hasn’t — so the Pacers will need to box him out in addition to putting a body on Nene, Melo and Sheldon Williams.

JR Smith – Like Baby Al, if he gets hot from three, it’s problems for Indy. If he doesn’t, it’s problems for Denver. Either way, he will be letting em fly — early and often.

Carmelo Anthony – He’s one of the best scorers in NBA history. You may have heard of him.

Pacers vs. Nuggets – By the Numbers

Related posts:

1. Game #3 Preview: The One Where The Pacers Try Not to Get Smacked in the Mouth by Melo
2. Game #26 Preview: Pacers vs. Pterodactyls
3. Game #62 Preview – Gonna Lose

I’ve watched all three of Denver’s wins so far this year, and with the possible exceptions of Orlando and Boston, they have been the best team in the NBA through one week. Carmelo is leading the league in scoring (37.7 ppg), PER (36.4) and free throws made per game (12.0). Sample size, sure, but the Pacers are not particularly great at stopping people from (1) scoring, (2) being efficient, or (3) getting to the line. So fans are right to be a little concerned when the first-week MVP steps into the building.

And it’s not just Carmelo that Indy needs to worry about. As a team, the Nuggets lead the league in two of the offensive four factors (TO% and FT/FGA) and rank behind only Orlando in offensive rating. For those who don’t care about the numbers, they’ve just been absolute beasts on offense with Nene and Kenyon Martin both looking aggressive and healthy, Billups and Ty Lawson running the team, and well-nicknamed role players Birdman (Chris Anderson) and Spell Check (Arron Afflalo) fitting in well throughout their three victories (at home vs. Utah, @Portland then back home vs. Memphis). Their perimeter defenders aren’t anything to be overly concerned with despite Melo’s commitment to that side of the ball and Chauncey’s solid play, so Granger, Rush, Head and TJ should be able to score as long as they’re hitting shots. But other than Carmelo dropping 45+, the Pacers really need to be worried about stopping Nene, Martin and Birdman from getting easy hoops in the paint.

Given how good the Nuggets have looked and how bad the Pacers have looked, there’s not really a ton else to say. If Indy can pull it off, it would be a nice feather in their cap before they head off to play the Knicks in Madison Square Garden tomorrow. And if Indy can’t pull it off, that will be expected and they will then go look for their first win on the second night of a home/road back-to-back against a feisty-yet-not-overwhelmingly-talented New York team in what promises to be a high-octane shootout between Jim O’Brien’s three-point friendly system and D’Antoni’s Seven Seconds or Less army.

I would personally feel a whole lot better about the whole start of this season if they could find a way to pull off a W this evening. So, yeah, do that, please.

Not So Fun Fact of the Game: Tonight, it comes from the Yahoo game preview, which informs us that “Denver has won eight of 10 meetings dating back to Jan. 29, 2005, including four of five at Conseco Fieldhouse.” I mean, the rosters are pretty different so I’m not really sure why I should care. But I still don’t like it.

(FYI, these previews will improve from the standpoint of stats and the like going forward. Still figuring out how exactly we want to lay things out and what else to include. And, oh yeah, we’ll start getting them up earlier. Bear with me for the next week or so.)

Lang Whitaker and company chose Carmelo for the cover of their November NBA season kick-off issue. Nice call, fellas.

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