(000′s $)

The Pacers are committed to paying those contracts in full – with one exception. The $870 thousand for Lance Stephenson is fully unguaranteed until July 15th. If he is waived before then, then that money goes away. You’ll also note that the salary for Dahntay Jones is in green. That indicates a player option. Jones could elect to terminate his contract and explore free agency, but that seems unlikely.

For reference, I have included the projected salary cap – $58.044 million. This is flat to this year. The revenue for the lockout-shortened season will probably be down, but the CBA guaranteed that the cap would not drop below this level. Based on this figure, the Pacers would have $21.767 million left between their contracts and the salary cap. That number would go to $22.637 million, should the Pacers waive Stephenson prior to July 15th.

However, while that’s the most money they’d have available, it is not what they actually have free to start the summer spending.

Cap Holds – The Hibbert and Hill Effect

Technically, the Pacers will open the summer with no available cap space.

In order to prevent teams from letting all of their contract expire, signing other free agents, then re-signing their own players with “Bird Rights” to go over the cap, the CBA places “cap holds” on a team’s free agents, draft picks, and retired players.

(000′s $)

The Pacers will enter July with over $32 million in cap holds, putting their total cap figure at close to $70 million. However, only a few of those holds really matter.

The biggest cap hold is on Leandro Barbosa’s contract, at $11.4 million (150% of his 2012 salary). As he helped late in the regular season and early in the playoffs, it was worth considering keeping him around. After the Miami series, that seems less appealing. Regardless, if you wanted to keep him, then the Pacers would need to sign him quickly for a figure much lower than his hold. However, the base expectation is that the Pacers will renounce their Bird Rights to Barbosa, thus removing all of the cap hold. (The decision to be made about Barbosa is likely low on the front office’s offseason priority list.)

I didn’t list all of the holds here, because the ones for Jeff Foster, A.J. Price, and Kyrylo Fesenko are probably moot. Indiana will renounce all of them for various reasons. However, I did include Lou Amundson. Amundson is a player that the Pacers would probably like to re-sign at the right price. However, his price probably won’t be materially different from his hold. As you’ll see later, how Indiana can or will deal with Lou will greatly depend on what direction they want to go with their other moves. (And as with Barbosa, it is not a primary concern.)

That leaves the three holds that matter – Roy Hibbert, George Hill, and the 1st Round Draft Pick. They total $11.217 million.

So what can the Pacers do? Well, a lot of things, but it’s probably easiest to look at it in two separate scenarios.

Keeping the Core Together

If you operate under the assumption that the Pacers will want to re-sign Roy Hibbert and George Hill, then that limits the money available pretty drastically. Both players are sure to command contracts greater than their cap holds, so the way to maximize the cap space would be to wait to re-sign these two until after the Pacers made their free agent acquisitions.

Under that approach, Indiana would most likely have the $10.550 million identified in red above available to sign free agents (this assumes renouncing Barbosa, Amundson, etc.). From there they would have three avenues to create more cap space – one entirely under their control, and two that would need trading partners.

Waive Lance Stephenson – This would add $870 thousand of cap space, bringing them to $11.420 million available. Making this move has the virtue of being entirely at the discretion of the Pacers. I think this is possible, but don’t consider it likely. Nor am I making a judgment on whether or not Lance should  be waived. However, it’s worth noting that Lance could be waived, then re-signed later to the minimum … which happens to be $854 thousand next year. It could be a painless option for both parties, but it also doesn’t move the needle very much.

Trade, Sell or Renounce the Draft Pick -  The Pacers hold the 26th pick in the NBA Draft this June, and it carries with it a cap hold of $894 thousand. The Pacers could elect to trade that pick without taking back salary, sell it for up to $3 million, or renounce their rights to the pick (probably after making the pick). The first two are possible, the third extremely unlikely. The last example of renouncing the rights to a draft pick I can recall is Chicago doing it with Travis Knight in 1996. The Pacers also lost the rights to Greg Minor — whose rights they’d acquired in the Mark Jackson trade — but that was for reasons surrounding failing to file the right paperwork in time that I can’t quite recall, and in any case, was four CBAs ago. The Pacers may trade or sell the pick, but the need would have to be very specific. This path also seems unlikely to me, simply because first round draft picks are cheap players with potential, and teams don’t like to give them away.

Make an unbalanced trade, where they send out more salary than they take back – This seems unlikely to me, because Indiana would need a trading partner with either cap space or a Traded Player Exception (TPE) who would also be interested in taking a player that the Pacers didn’t want. However, since Danny Granger has the only contract on the Pacers that is guaranteed beyond the 2012-13 season, there are candidates. Seems to me that the most likely scenario of a collection of long shots would be to get some team to take back the final year of either Dahntay Jones ($2.900 million) or Tyler Hansbrough ($3.055 million), in exchange for some future considerations — second round picks, highly protected firsts. This, along with waiving Lance Stephenson, could create just under $15.400 million in cap room, while retaining the holds for Hibbert and Hill. This is close to, but not quite, big enough to make a 30% max offer. However, there’s a lot of risk in that. The Pacers would have to make that deal, before they had an agreement – or even spoken to — a free agent. Very good chance that they could come out of the exchange with more money to spend, but not be able to spend it on who they want.

Those are opportunities to get clever. However, if the Pacers prioritize re-signing Hibbert and Hill, it likely indicates a more conservative approach. Therefore, the best assumption to follow is that they’ll have just a little over $10 million available to add talent.

In this scenario, there are two players that I would put at the top of the shopping list.

First, Steve Nash. Nash would do wonders for the Pacer offense, and — I have to believe — Roy Hibbert. He reportedly has winning as a high priority, and perhaps he could be brought in on a David West-type deal…maybe even less in the right circumstances. I’m not great at predicting what his actual price tag will be, but I have to believe it would within the Pacer budget. I think it would just be a question of mutual interest.

Second, Irsan Elyasova. Again, not entirely sure of his price, but a very good, active upgrade on the Pacer reserve bigs who also could provide some sorely needed shooting ability.

In my more delusional moments, I think of getting both, but one or the other would be fine.

Other factors could derail this plan pretty quickly, though. Both Hibbert and Hill are restricted free agents, which is both a blessing and a curse for the Pacers. The blessing comes in the fact that the Pacers can match any offer made. The curse comes in that the new CBA only allows three days to match, instead of seven.

If Roy Hibbert and/or George Hill sign offer sheets very early in the process, it significantly alters the math here. In fact, if both sign on July 1st (or whenever the first day), the Pacers will be forced to make all of their major offseason decisions in a three-day time frame. This is especially concerning when you consider that the Pacers’ normal M.O. is to allow things to unfold.

In any case, I expect the Pacers to seek to keep the core together, so I think they will prioritize re-signing their two restricted free agents. Then look to add more talent. Nash and Ilyasova may or may not be on their wish list.

However, they could go another way.

Go Big Game Hunting

Really, what this amounts to is going after Deron Williams. However, the first thing I need to do here is address Eric Gordon. The Pacers have been linked repeatedly to Eric Gordon, and while the match is perfect in theory, it is fraught with practical problems.

First is the very real concern over whether Gordon will be worth the amount of money it will take to sign him. The most damning argument against is the fact that he’s missed 20, 26, and 57 games over the last three seasons. That’s not a warning sign. That’s somebody walking beside you 24 hours a day, slapping you upside the head, and saying, “He’s injury prone. He’s injury prone. He’s injury prone.”

Also, Gordon went from being considered a promising, possible All-Star one day to the future best shooting guard in the league, all without ever actually showing any sustained reason for that jump. He has played at a very high level for relatively short periods of time in the context of a career and a contract worth upwards of $60 million.

But the biggest practical obstacle is his restricted free agent status.

Though I wouldn’t do it, New Orleans seems committed to matching any offer, up to and including a max deal. This fact closes the window on this opportunity for all but the tiniest sliver. So, I don’t consider Gordon a practical option, but the good news for those who do is: the steps needed to put the Pacers in a position to make a run at Williams will also allow them to make a run at Gordon.

Now, the math.

(000′s $)

The table above outlines the max contracts. While the overall cap will not change, the CBA has guaranteed that the cap used for establishing player max salaries will increase, driving up the max salaries available.

The two columns of importance to the Pacers are the 25% column and the 30% column. Eric Gordon (and Roy Hibbert) can be paid up to the amount in the 25% column, with a starting salary of $13.669 million. Deron Williams’ maximum is in the 30% column, with a starting salary of $16.403 million.

If the Pacers are willing to make some hard choices, they would have enough space to offer a 25% max, and they could come close to a 30% max. But, those choices would be hard, and they’d begin with renouncing the Bird Rights to George Hill.  That alone would create enough space to offer Eric Gordon the max.

From there, if the Pacers were to waive Lance Stephenson and unload their first round pick, they could offer a starting salary of just over $16.1 million to Deron Williams. This would be just below the max, and cost Williams about $1.1 million over the course of a four-year contract that any team besides the Nets could offer. Of course, the Nets max offer is worth over $20 million more due to the extra year.

Sidebar – What does renouncing a player mean?
You’re basically giving up your ability to go over the salary cap to sign that player. If the Pacers were to renounce George Hill, then they would only be able to sign him with available cap space, or to a minimum level contract. While there are scenarios where Indiana could renounce Hill (or Hibbert), then still find a way to keep him, their chances are very remote. One should assume renouncing a player would end the team’s relationship with that player. There is only one instance in which a player can be “un-renounced.” That is if he was renounced in order to make an offer on another team’s restricted free agent, and that team matched the offer. However, there are still limitations even then, so it’s safest to consider renunciation final, and be surprised if it isn’t. (As always, Larry Coon’s NBA CBA FAQ is the best source for information like this.)

Correction – Roster Charges

As wintermute notes below, there is something called a roster charge. Per Larry Coon:

“A roster charge if the team has fewer than 12 players (players under contract, free agents included in team salary, players given offer sheets, and first round draft picks). The roster charge is equal to the rookie minimum salary for each player fewer than 12.”

This changes the math enough to change a couple conclusions:

In the “Keep the core together” section, a roster charge ($0.474 million) should be added, lowering the beginning available to just over $10 million. Then both Lance and the pick would be replaced w/ roster charges, meaning those two moves would only create about $0.4 million additional space, each.

It has a bigger effect on the “Big Game” calculations, as the Pacers would not be able to get to $16.1mm. At that point, they’d have four roster charges. That would take away $1.9 million of available space. As wintermute notes, to chase Deron Williams, the Pacers will have to find someone to take on salary – probably Dahntay Jones or Tyler Hansbrough – in order to create room to make a max offer to Williams.

If that wasn’t enough, the Pacers would either have to decide to renounce Roy Hibbert’s Bird Rights (won’t happen), or try to find a team willing to take on some salary. In that case, they’d love for it to be Dahntay or Tyler, but they might have to dangle Darren Collison and his remaining $2.3 million.

No question, this is a risky, risky path, but there are ways to get there. Again, this is just about the math of creating the space to sign Deron Williams. It’s not a discussion of whether or not he would come to Indiana.

Which Way?

It’s tough to tell. I’d say it depends on whether or not Bird returns. If Bird returns, then I’d bet heavily on the Pacers re-signing Hibbert and Hill, while trying to make another David West-level acquisition. This could come in free agency, or they could look to make a trade. If Bird leaves, then it depends on his replacement, and I don’t know who that might be. I will say this, however. If it ends up being Kevin Pritchard, then I’d expect the Pacers to make a run at Deron Williams.

To me, if you can get Williams, you have to get him. However, while I think he’d come to Indy, I don’t think Indy will be his first choice. New Jersey and – reportedly – Dallas, will likely look more attractive to Williams. So, while I’d explore the Williams opportunity, I’d plan on moves in the vein of Nash/Ilyasova, or other opportunities that may not be readily apparent to the casual observer. Of course, there is always the possibility of trading any of the players on the roster – Danny, Roy, David, DC. While that makes it hard on us prognosticators, the amount of flexibility the Pacers have leaves them in a position to be envied by pretty much everybody else in the NBA.

Plenty of questions about what will happen this summer, but this post should provide the framework for the financial options and limitations the Pacers face. Stay tuned.

Early in the second half last night, Deron Williams did just about everything a ball-handler can do to paralyze an entire team’s defense. He maneuvered around the Pacers’ attempt to defend the Nets pick-and-roll like Baryshnikov, drawing both defenders and freezing every other Indiana player into an awed trance. The whole lane opens up for Sheldon Williams and D-Will delivers a perfect player. Then, Sheldon Williams does exactly what you might expect a guy who had 0 points, 3 turnovers and 5 fouls in 23 minutes to do: throw up all over his damn self.

The above play is essentially the mathematical inverse of this one. And of note is the fact that my favorite part about both plays is a two-handed power-dribble. Paul George uses his to set up a coiling action that allows him to better spin and delivery his fury. Sheldon uses his to display his earned disgust with himself after the play is blown dead due to his embarrassing turnover.

I know what you’re thinking: everyone plays great against the Nets. While that may be true, seriously, Paul George plays great against the Nets. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, no player has shot better against any other NBA team this year than George has against the Nets.

Last night, reports Elias, “Paul George shot 8-for-11 from the field, scoring a career-high 24 points for the Pacers in their 106-99 home win over the Nets. On January 2, George shot 8-for-10 against New Jersey in his only other 20-point game of the season. George’s .762 field-goal percentage (16-for-21) against the Nets is the highest by any player against any team this season (minimum: 15 field goals made). The next-best percentage belongs to Gerald Wallace, who is 17-for-23 (.739) against the Kings.”

Another guy who tends to play well against the Nets is Dahntay Jones. He was effective, if not a standout, last night on 3-for-6 shooting for 6 points, but on January 2 in New Jersey, the state where he is from, he scored 11 points on 5-for-6 shooting. Moreover, last season, he scored his season-high 18 points on 7-for-10 in Newark.

I think every NBA player has a good feeling when they wake up and see that the Nets are on their schedule that night. But these two guys seem to have that extra bounce in their step even.

Nothing like a swift kick in the reality to deflate the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade-sized balloons that have been trailing the Pacers bandwagon all week. Sure it was the second night of a back-to-back during the tail half of a West Coast road trip, but Utah just sent Indiana a clear, 110-88 message about the difference between a borderline contender and an up-and-coming team with some moxie. (I use the term “moxie” only because I bet that’s how Jerry Sloan would describe this squad.)

It wasn’t all bad. There was the second quarter. But the rest was indeed bad. Really bad.

Indy started off the game looking like they had just stepped off a plane. They turned the ball over repeatedly, didn’t close out on shooters and could not keep the Jazz off of the offensive glass. Even while letting Utah score basically at will early, Indiana did manage to keep up … for a while. Less than four minutes in, the Pacers tied it up at 12-12. Soon after, it was 12-23. And the Pacers would only score 5 more points over the next 8:30. Deron Williams set the tone with 9 points and 9 assists in the initial frame.

At that point, with the Jazz finishing the quarter more than doubling up the Pacers at 35-17, the game looked all but over. To their credit, however, Darren Collison and Danny Granger showed some good on-court leadership, pushing the team to such a good quarter that, at the half, Indy actually was out-shooting Utah 47.1% to 46.9% — this despite the fact that the Jazz posted a video-game-like rate above 60% in the first quarter.

But the Jazz would blow it open again in the third, flushing any hopes the team had down the toilet. DWill continued his good play (overall, he dropped 24 points and 16 dimes with 0 TOs while shooting 10-15), but the second half belonged to Utah front court, with Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson torching whoever was standing in between them and the hoop. AK-47, if inefficiently, even got in on the action. Millsap, Jefferson and Kirilenko finished with 16, 17  and 18 points, respectively, to go along with a combined 25 boards.

There were no real standouts individually for the good guys.

Collison definitely looked really good in the second quarter, but he faltered at times later, turning the ball over six times. It wasn’t just the total either; a few came just as the team was starting to put a few good possessions together and hoping to crawl back into the game in the late third. Danny Granger was an all-too-willing shooter early, several times using a few mere inches of space after a dribble hand-off to launch a three. One of his attempts from behind the arc fell. Five others did not. He finished 5-for-16 with 14 points. Pretty gross.

Roy Hibbert’s 6-for-8 line looks better on paper. He probably should have gotten more looks, and I’m sure people will be upset that the team didn’t go to him more down low. The thing is, though, he had trouble really getting good position, often being forced to a less-than-ideal spot to receive the ball in a good place for him to do much. He didn’t really force the issue either, which is odd considering that he has size and strength on Al Jeff, a guy not known for being a formidable post defender by any stretch of the imagination. Hard to pinpoint what went wrong. Roy looked a little tired perhaps. Long road trip and all maybe.

Mike Dunleavy, Brandon Rush and Josh McRoberts each had their moments of good and bad play. James Posey and TJ Ford were largely a waste of post-game-uniform-detergent.

But it really wasn’t about the individuals so much as one team aggressively hammering the glass and making a lot of mid-range shots. At first, it just seemed as though Utah was hot. But after a while, the more and more quality looks they had, you could see their confidence grow as they realized they had jumpers available whenever they wanted — and quite possibly a second or third chance if they missed. 19 offensive rebounds by a team that missed 53 shots is simply unacceptable. Tough to win that way — especially if you’re also going to turn the ball over 18 times (most of which came before the fourth quarter garbage time began).

Ultimately, this was all to be expected. It would be absurd to expect a team unaccustomed to having the label of being good to win three straight out West. Not in Utah against a Jazz squad playing as well as this team has been.

The best thing to takeaway from this is the second quarter, during which the Pacers didn’t lay down and die when they easily could have, and part of the third, when they also cut the lead down to single digits for one stretch that made it seem like the game was not already over.

On to the next one.

If you want to beat the Jazz, it seems like the best thing to do is not take a double-digit lead during the game. From November 6-13, Utah won five straight games in which they trailed by more than 10, coming back to defeat the Clippers, Heat, Magic, Hawks and Bobcats.

It was pretty insane.

And they haven’t slowed down since. After dropping two of their next three games, they have since won six in a row, including wins over Western Conference heavyweights New Orleans and Los Angeles (you know of which one I speak). If the Pacers recent success has made the league stand up and take note of them as perhaps the most overlooked good team in the preseason, the Jazz’s winning ways have made people begin to think of them as the most underrated title contender.

Deron Williams is the main reason. Averaging 22 pts and 10 assists per game, he — as he has done for years — makes the offense work. He lost long-time running mate Carlos Boozer to the Bulls in the offseason, but no matter; Paul Millsap has stepped in seamlessly, Al Jefferson brings even more scoring to the frontcourt and Andrei Kirilenko fills in the cracks, mainly providing versatile defense at any number of positions but also helping out with some scoring or shooting if need be.

All in all, this is going to be a tough game for Indy to win. It’s a back-to-back on the road in a tough building to play against a very good team. Still, fans should be less concerned with the final score than how the team plays. If they can just go out there and execute, not letting themselves get dominated by a better squad, that will be encouraging.

Then again, beating Utah tonight and then finishing off Phoenix on Friday to go 4-0 on this West Coast swing would be pretty nice today

Pacers vs Jazz By the Numbers

[TABLE=85]

[TABLE=21]

Glossary: Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | eFG% | Pace

What do you get when you cross a streaking home team that has a good offense and an average defense with a scuffling road team that has a terrible offense and an average defense?

The Pacers at the Jazz.

Utah has won it’s last three games and six of its last seven. Their slow start out of the gates is over. And on the other side, we have Indiana, which has lost its last three and six of its last seven. Their slow start out the gates has returned and essentially erased any modicum of hope that the team’s earlier five-game winning streak may have given fans.

How should we expect tonight’s game to go? You do the math.

As for personnel, Carlos Boozer has reverted to the 20/10 beast he was two/three years ago (and he’s again doing in on 55+% shooting). You can say he’s playing for a contract, you can say he’s abandoned lower-percentage fadeaways … but whatever you say, the message is the same: Boozer is a problem on the block, and the Pacers have no one outside of Jeff Foster, who is reportedly again nursing a banged up back after his other-worldly 18-rebound game on Wednesday, who can even consider stopping him.

Speaking of unstoppable players, Deron Williams certainly won’t be phased by TJ Ford. And after Monta Ellis strung him up for a career high and Tyreke Evans abused him all night despite foul trouble in the Pacers last outing, TJ better hope that Jim O’Brien finally realizes that Dahntay Jones and Earl Watson need to be the ones tasked with guarding the other team’s best penetrator. Ford just can’t do it, for reasons that have to do with both his size and his technique.

Unfortunately, that leaves Ronnie Brewer as the guy TJ would need to defend. Yeah. Good luck with that. Thus, it seems TJ will be left on an island with D Will, where his best strategy might be finding an empty bottle, writing a note and sending out an SOS.

Throw in a three-point shooting center in Mehmet Okur (currently shooting a Troy-Murphy-from-last-year-esque 45.2% from long range) who will give Roy Hibbert fits, and the Jazz are just a really tough match-up for Indiana. Remember that time last year that you tried to never think about again when Memo dropped a career-high 43 points on the Pacers? Hate to break it to you, but it actually happened. And, as I recall, he didn’t even have a particularly good second half that night.

Even when the defense does force a miss, the Pacer bigs will need to keep Paul Millsap off the offensive glass. A silver lining for Indy in that regard is that Millsap hasn’t been getting to the boards that much this year, but he remains capable of creating 5 to 6 extra possessions for his team on any given night.

The last thing I’ll be watching is Utah’s rookie reserve point guard Eric Maynor. I admittedly stopped having the time to watch NCAA hoops like four years ago, so my opinion on draft stuff isn’t particularly educated, but I saw Maynor play quite a few times at VCU and really wanted to see him in a Pacers uniform. And his per-minute numbers in this young season while backing up Deron have looked very good, so it will be interesting to see him up close for the first time.