The other day, Tom Ziller of SB Nation ranked the Pacers among his “winners” of this NBA offseason, largely due to the fact that Larry Bird didn’t squander his cap space by over-paying players. Chad Ford agrees, praising Larry Bird’s patience and his foresight to keep his team’s payroll well below the salary cap.
Awash with cash in a shallow free-agent pool, Bird and Morway did what they always do — they waited. And once again, it paid off. They patiently plugged and plugged away for more than a year until the San Antonio Spurs finally surrendered Indy-born George Hill. Then they waited until impatient teams overpaid the more overhyped free agents on the market and signed West to a very reasonable two-year, $20 million deal. Both players fit their needs perfectly without breaking the bank.
Meanwhile, the Pacers still have about $14 million in cap room to play around with during the season. With so much player movement expected closer to the March trade deadline, the Pacers are perfectly positioned to be major players in the trade market while still boasting a roster that’s as deep as any team in the East. Even if Indy doesn’t make another move, it’s not inconceivable that this team could be a top-five team in the East this season.
The reason having cap space, even during the season, is potentially so valuable is that teams below the cap can make trades without the silly salary-matching requirements the league imposes on any teams that are above the cap. As an example, let’s say the Magic do end up trading Dwight Howard to the Nets.
Let’s say it happens in early February and the Magic get back Brook Lopez, Anthony Morrow, the Nets’ first-round picks in 2012 and 2014, and some other odds and ends. This would put Orlando in complete “tank-and-rebuild” mode. They would likely no longer have any need for Jameer Nelson, since he is good enough to keep them winning (a little bit) this year but likely too old for Orlando GM Otis Smith to want to him around long-term. Why pay a veteran floor general $8 million when you can let a younger guy learn on the job and perhaps be seasoned enough to lead an offense full of blue chippers in three years? Instead, what Otis would likely want is draft picks, young players with small salaries, and more draft picks.
So maybe Larry calls him up and gets him to agree to part with not only just Jameer Nelson but also JJ Redick. And all Bird has to give up is Darren Collison and a first-round pick. If the team was over the salary cap, the only way they could get Nelson and Redick in a trade would be to send back a package of players (or one player) with a combined salary around $15 million. Such a deal would not be attractive to Orlando since the Magic’s motivation is not so much getting rid of good players like Nelson and Redick, but gutting their payroll commitments and stacking assets for the future. They would be trying to press the reset button on the Dwight Howard era and build from scratch. And there wouldn’t be another team in the league that could so easily assist them in doing so.
If he made this theoretical deal with the Pacers, Otis Smith would be looking at a roster that includes some young talent (Brook Lopez, Darren Collison, Anthony Morrow), a few veterans he could either use to bridge the gap from the Dwight era to the future or trade later (JRich, Big Baby), and five first-round draft picks to use over the next three seasons (three of his own, two from New Jersey and one from Indiana). Not the worst scenario to start over.
Or, in a different made-up scenario, say the Utah Jazz are floundering in February and realizing that the Paul Millsap/Al Jefferson front court experiment has failed. Like Orlando in a post-Dwight world, the Jazz would likely covet salary relief and draft picks/young talent more than anything. Perhaps they look at Al Jefferson and his $14 million salary and decide it’s best just to get rid of that hindrance to their rebuilding process. They want a core of Devin Harris, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter. They call Larry Bird, who likes Al Jeff’s game but not his price tag. Still, if he can get him without giving up much, he will pull the trigger. Technically, he can take him on payroll-wise without sending anything back. They haggle, and Bird eventually agrees to take on the last two years of Jefferson’s deal in exchange for a first-round pick in 2013. Utah gets out of the contract, gets a pick and gets a $14 million trade exception. Two years ago, the Minnesota Timberwolves wanted Bird to give up Danny Granger in exchange for Al Jeff. In this made-up reality, Larry would be getting him for next to nothing.
Both these examples may sound a little rosy for the Pacers. They probably are. It’s unlikely Bird could add this type of talent while giving up so little. But they illustrate the potential benefits of being so far below the cap. These are the types of deals that may emerge as possibilities. Right now, every team has an infinite hope in their roster that can only comes with having not played a game yet. By March, most GMs will be looking at the flawed realities of their squads. And most will be considering some sort of move to either radically change their roster or tweak it as they gear up for a playoff run.
This in no way guarantees that the Pacers will be able to turn their in-season cap space into anything. But just because his team’s payroll is so far below the cap, it means lots of GMs likely will be calling Bird’s office.
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Roy Hibbert vs. Dwight Howard: A Match-up of One-Sided Results
by Jared Wade on January 24, 2012 at 3:42 pm · 1 comment
Roy Hibbert generally plays well against traditional big men. For example, Roy has usually scored efficiently and generally played well against Tim Duncan and against Andrew Bynum and against Andrew Bogut. On the other hand, he often has been an abject disaster against a lot of smaller guys, like when he plays Al Horford and goes up against teams featuring Amar’e Stoudemire.
There are likely many reasons, but one explanation I have always leaned on is that Roy plays his best when he is in his comfort zone. He likes to establish positions and show big against guys who stand behind him and react to his moves. When the defender is rushing around trying to front, playing side position and using other fancy techniques (pulling the chair, for example), some of Hibbert’s effectiveness gets lost in the muddle. He thrives among organization and reliability but falters amidst chaos and improvisation. There is nothing wrong with that, but it’s just a general observation I have developed over time.
One tradition center he has generally struggled against, however, is the only great one left: Dwight Howard. Not only have the Pacers gone 2-9 in their 11 head-to-head match-ups since Roy entered the league in 2008, Hibbert has had some real struggle games whereas Howard has put up some monster numbers.
It will be interesting to see if Hibbert’s excellent play so far this year continues tonight as the Pacers host the Magic, a team that managed to score only 56 points last night against the Celtics. In the lead up, here’s a breakdown of how each has fared individually when Indiana and Orlando has clashed. I’ve highlighted the individual “winner” for each in yellow — which means I highlighted Dwight’s name 10 times. (Roy did notably score a career-high 26 points against Dwight in January 2010.)
Game 1 – November 21, 2008: Orlando 100 – Indiana 98
Game 2 – November 29, 2008: Orlando 110 – Indiana 96
Game 3 – January 27, 2009: Orlando 135 – Indiana 111
Game 4 – February 6, 2009: Indiana 107 – Orlando 102
Game 5 – December 14, 2009: Orlando 106 – Indiana 98
Game 6 – January 5, 2010: Indiana 97 – Orlando 90
From the 89ps recap: “The Pacers beat the Magic, 97-90 and Roy Hibbert was the star of the game, dropping a career-high 26 points. To think going into this game that Roy was going to shut down the NBA’s premier center, this game should have been a sell-out.”
Game 7 – January 20, 2010: Orlando 109 – Indiana 98
From the 8p9s recap: “Hibbert was virtually worthless this time against Dwight after having perhaps the best game of his career against Superman last time out. 3 points and 3 boards in 18 minutes. Thanks for coming out.”
Game 8 – April 12, 2010: Orlando 118 – Indiana 98
From the 8p9s recap: “What last night reminds us of was how thin the margin of error is for this team. It reminds us that, if Danny can’t get it going, and if Roy can’t get it going, then it’s all over but the shouting.”
Game 9 – November 20, 2010: Orlando 90 – Indiana 86
Game 10 – January 26, 2011: Orlando 111 – Indiana 96
From the 8p9s recap: “the Orlando Magic made 16 of the 34 triples they took (47.1%) on their way to to a 15-point win that felt more like a shutout.”
Game 11 – April 13, 2011: Orlando 92 – Indiana 74
From the 8p9s recap: “The Pacers took this opportunity to rest Danny Granger and Jeff Foster and did not play Roy Hibbert and Darren Collison in the second half.”
Related Topics: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic, Roy Hibbert
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