And since they have 14 players under contract already and might give Magnum Rolle the final roster spot, there may have to be a trade before the Pacers even have room to bolster the PG spot through free agency.

BUT … if they do want to add another PG, they probably should do it soon. Because, as Sham Sports points out in this fantastic post on what free agents are still out there, there isn’t a lot out there.

Here’s the full list of PGs:

• Earl Watson
• Anthony Johnson
• Chucky Atkins
• Cedric Jackson
• White Chocalate (who has sweet negative sideburns)
• Bobby Brown
• Chris Quinn
• Earl Boykins
• Mustaka Shakur
• Acie Law
• Antonio Daniels
• Travis Diener
• Eddie House
• Jamaal Tinsley
• Marcus Williams
• Rafer Alston
• Brevin Knight
• Jason Hart
• Lester Hudson
• Tweety Carter
• Sherron Collins
• Patty Mills
• Mike James
• Marko Jaric
• Šarūnas Jasikevičius
• John Lucas III
• Jerome Randle
• John Scheyer

First of all, the Pacers pathetic PG situation is best summed up by the fact that this list includes a full five players who have received paychecks from the team in the past few years (and, of course, one who is still receiving them. Don’t spend it all in one place, Jamaal.). It also includes one guy that I’m pretty sure Sham made up (no way Tweety Carter is an actual, living human being), one guy who has never before dribbled a basketball (Eddie House only catches and shoots … he also signed with Miami), one guy who I’m pretty sure is dead (Brevin Knight) and several guys who will likely never play more than 20 games in the NBA.

So … Presuming the team wouldn’t bring back Earl Watson, I’m not sure any of these guys are worth the time. Acie Law, Earl Boykins and maybe Rafer (I like the guy for God knows what reason) are the only three names that inspire even a half-hearted “meh.” The rest are straight “no thanks.” (Rafer is too, really, since it would pretty much be acquiring another TJ Ford.) Sherron Collins might be worth a look, I guess.

Time to call some GMs about Troy Murphy.

Related posts:

1. Pacer Point Guard Chronicles, Vol. I: Desperately Seeking the Next Mark Jackson
2. Free Agency Begins, Pacers Pick Up Purdue’s Chris Kramer for Summer League
3. UPDATE: Cap & Trade: Options Picked Up on Roy, Rush

————

It’s the weekend. I’m watching football. You’re watching football. What I’m getting at is that this recap will be pretty half-assed — much like the Pacers play last night.

Smoke Detroit on the road. Then lose to Philly at home. Makes perfect sense.

After getting down 6-0 to start, the Pacers actually played pretty darn good for about 12 straight minutes. The defense was forcing misses and Troy Murhpy was grabbing every rebound in sight (he had 10 boards in the first quarter). Earl Watson was making me rethink this whole “AJ should start” thing by running the offense rather well and even getting to the line himself for some points. Brandon Rush continued his solid play, going 6/9 from the field in the first half (and 2/3 from behind the arc.)

Then things slipped away. Thaddeus Young sparked Philly’s attack, and then Elton Brand, who was forced into several bad shots early and held to 3/9 shooting in the first quarter, started to abuse Troy and whoever else got in front of him. He started to look like 2005 Elton, which was probably just as surprising to Sixer fans as it was frustrating to Indy fans. Brand finished with 23 points and 4 offensive boards in the game, which combined with Samuel Dalembert’s 4 and some others gave Philly 16 offensive boards overall — compared to just 38 defensive boards for Indy. That’s a bad ratio.

By the time Troy made one of the dumbest inbounds passes I’ve ever seen (he cocked the ball back QB style and tried to make a three-quarters court pass upcourt so the Pacers could get another decent shot up before the half … but there were still 3-point-something seconds to go so there was no need for the Grant Hill-to-Christian Laettner-style heave — which got picked off and taken down the court for a layup by, I think, Marreese Speights), Philly was rolling. AI started playing rather well. Iggy was hitting threes (he went 3/4 in the game, which helped the Sixers go 7/11 from behind the arc as a team). And Young Thad (22 points on 16 shots) and Elton just kept getting easy baskets around the paint.

Indy would never get back in the game.

Danny actually had a really good third quarter himself (5/6 and a great-to-see 0/0 from three plus 4 boards and 3 dimes), but it was too late. No one else on the Pacers could do anything. Troy was particularly useless, finishing the game with an unimpressive 12 rebounds after recording 10 in the first quarter. Nice work in the opening period, dude, but you realize we play three more of these things, right? That was better than Roy Hibbert’s game at least, however, as he was a total no-show, shooting 1/6 with 4 rebounds. Yes, 4. According to the box score, Mike Dunleavy, Jr. also played in this game and supposedly took 9 shots, but I can’t really recall any of that happening. AJ Price eventually got into the groove (shot 5/8 for 17 points) and helped lead a nice faux-comeback with back-to-back threes on two possessions and just generally being productive with his dribble, but the Pacers couldn’t get any defensive stops so it probably wouldn’t have even helped if he was hitting 5-pointers. (It should be noted that AJ made a few really boneheaded plays in this game as well, as did Brandon, who had two obscene turnovers — one failing to catch a routine pass and another where he just inexplicably threw the ball directly out of bounds as if he was shaving points).

That’s all. Familiar story. Gross game.

Not even going to do the stats for this one. (Box score here, if you care.) Honestly, the only number you really need to see to know what happened is …

Interior Defense: 0

UPDATE: Just realized I failed to mention the 21 turnovers. Yeah, that happened, too. And, guess what? Didn’t help. Danny had 7 of em in this slopfest, but it was those two from Brandon and that one from Troy that provided the nice little microcosms for how well the offense valued the ball.

So, ummm, how bout them Colts?

Related posts:

1. Game Recap #37: Pacers Beat the Best National Basketball Association Team in Canada
2. Game #1 Recap: Hawks 120 – Pacers 109
   Actual Observations and Related, Possibly Stupid Conjectures
3. Game #43 Recap: Best Game in Some Time

So this is the life of an NBA swinger? I’ve been eyeing this blog for a while, and I’m very happy that Jared decided to swap with me for a night. So let’s ease into this with a nice cognac and turn on a nice romantic comedy to set the mood…

These are not the Pacers that I remember.

I mean, they still have a really good wing scorer. And they can rebound inside with some size. But there isn’t much in the way of substance with this team. Where are the guys that kill themselves to win? Where is the solid starting lineup? Where is the grit and determination that bred successful night after successful night for more than a decade?

Instead, I watched a team against the Kings that had Jeff Foster, Dahntay Jones and Earl Watson play the role of players who wouldn’t be intimidated by a hostile environment (even if there were only 7,000 people in attendance). They were the ones that wouldn’t be bullied. Guys like TJ Ford, Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy and Roy Hibbert, on the other hand, came out and played a nice 18 minutes — then got smacked in the mouth and wilted.

When the Pacers played a scrappy version of this game, they looked like they were ready to upset a team on the road. For the first quarter-and-a-half, the Pacers double-teamed with a purpose. They swarmed the Kings ball-handlers, swiped at the ball and forced turnovers. In fact, in the first half of the game, they forced 14 turnovers. On offense, they moved the ball well, found open jumpers and put the Kings defensive rotations on their heels. They made the Kings indecisive, which is the best thing you can do against a young team. And the Kings are very young. Seven of the ten guys that played in this game for Sacramento are 23-years-old or younger.

With a young team, you need to get them frustrated early, maintain a manageable deficit or flustering lead at halftime and then come out in the third quarter and bury them early to get them yelling at each other and playing selfishly on offense. You have to turn them into a collection of individuals instead of letting them come together as a team. This is what the Pacers started to do.

Unfortunately for the Pacers, they allowed the Kings second unit to take over this game in the second quarter and rescue Sacramento from this plan. Beno Udrih came in and continued his hot shooting. They let Jason Thompson dominate inside in the second quarter. The Pacers got lazy on offense and stopped moving the ball around the Kings defense. Instead, they force-fed Danny Granger and made him try to win this first half rec-league style. But that doesn’t work in the NBA.

The rest, you know, is pretty much history. The Pacers made one big push in the third quarter to get back into the game. After Tyreke Evans picked up his fourth foul, Indy went on a 15-2 run. The Kings effort became stagnant while the Pacers rode the hot hand of … this can’t be right … Earl Watson?

Seriously, Earl Watson?

Now this is the problem with this Pacers team that I mentioned before. Sure, Granger is great. I mean, he’s really impressive. I watched Kevin Durant torch this Kings team for 37 points a couple of weeks ago. Last night, I watched Granger go off for 33 points against the Kings. And I honestly can’t tell the difference between the two talents. They’re basically the same skill-set with the exact same abilities. The difference is that Granger settles for jumpers more often than he should, and Durant settles for nothing but his opponent’s soul.

My guess on the reason for this is the malaise that hovers around this team. Mike Dunleavy is supposed to be the second or third gunman on the Conseco knoll. However, he moves like his dad. Maybe his knee is healed and maybe he just needs to get back in shape before he gets his quickness back, but neither of those things have happened yet. He moves slowly and is a liability on the court because of it. Troy Murphy looked like one of the more useless power forwards you could find. He didn’t look like he could create a single basket on his own.

And then you have guys like Roy Hibbert and T.J. Ford.

I actually like Hibbert a lot and think he can be a nice version of Rasho Nesterovic (that’s a compliment, not an insult). But he’s not a good option to guard guys like Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes. When they pull him away from the basket, his usefulness plummets.

But I’d still take Roy Hibbert away from the basket over what I saw from TJ Ford. Mostly, it’s unfair to criticize him because he was going against someone twice his size in Tyreke Evans. Evans obliterated him on the court to such an impressive degree that he wasn’t seen from in the final 20 minutes of the game. Not only that, but he also attempted just four shots the entire game. And didn’t hit any of them.

The saving graces from this game were Jeff Foster’s work on the boards, Dahntay Jones’ aggressive nature on offense (that was weird to type) and Earl Watson making the Kings pay for trying to guard him with Sergio Rodriguez.

If you heard before this season started that a Kings blogger would feel sorry for you around the beginning of December, you would have assumed there was either a lethargic feel to this team or a Larry Bird stroke that made him decide to re-sign Jamaal Tinsley.

I don’t know what to say about this Pacers team to cheer you up. You have Granger who is a phenomenal talent but even he looks downtrodden after a month of play.

Ugh.

Imagine what he’ll be thinking about his teammates come March…

Related posts:

1. 8p9s/Pacers TrueHoop Network Season Preview
2. Game #11 Recap: Blown Out by the Bobcats
3. Game #1 Recap: Hawks 120 – Pacers 109
   Actual Observations and Related, Possibly Stupid Conjectures

That was just truly, madly, deeply horrible. Just a total no show, almost across the board, by everyone on the Pacers. They got murdered on the glass — often a telltale sign of lethargy — on the way to getting blown out by perhaps the worst offense in the NBA. And this was on a night when the Bobcats only made 1 three-pointer, so this wasn’t exactly the March Madness-like phenomenon of a team just getting hot and blowing the barn doors off. Still, they shot 50% from the field overall, which helps illustrate just how many open mid-range jumpers and easy looks in the paint that the Pacers gave up.

Brandon Rush actually started off making a few shots, which was a nice change-of-pace for him — but soon reverted back to the Mayor of Brick City. Actually, that’s not even fair. I bet Cory Booker, the actual mayor of Newark, New Jersey, could shoot better than 26.2% from three-point range.

Granger was ok early but then he started settling for way too many threes. Including last night’s 2/7 showing from long-range, Danny is now up to 8.6 three-point attempts per game, easily leading the league. In fact, the only other guys who are even launching more than 7 threes per night are Kevin Martin (whose 7.6 attempts per game came is the small sample of only the 5 games before going down with a broken wrist), JR Smith (whose 7.2 attempts per came in the small sample of only the 6 games since he’s returned from suspension) and Trevor Ariza (who has played 14 games, but is stuggling mightily to figure out how to turn himself from role player to number-one option for a team that desperately needs him to score).

Last year, Danny shot threes at a high clip as well, obviously, but 6.7 per night and 8.6 per night is a huge difference. And with last night being yet another night were he was shooting them more like LeBron James and less like Peja Stojokovic, it makes his decision to stand 24-feet from the hoop shooting rather than getting into the paint even more indefensible. When you’re the only thing even close to an All-Star on your team, it’s on you to force the action and get to the hoop, not have 7 of your 14 shots be threes. Especially on a night where you’re shooting like Marquis Daniels.

Earl and TJ were both had moments of good play and moments of terrible decision-making, which appears to be a typical night at the office for both. Hibbert was ineffective and soft, having two dunks blocked and generally just getting his butt-kicked on both ends by the 32-year-old Nazr Mohammend, who scored 18 points in 18 minutes on just 10 shots. The 6’8″ Boris Diaw further exposed the lack of interior defense by Roy, Troy and the rest of the bigs by scoring his 17 points on 8/13 shooting and finding the time to grab 7 boards. Tyler brought a lift when he came into the game to raucous applause from his North Carolina faithful, but he didn’t exactly produce a ton, in part because he remains on a minute restriction. Still, even without major production, it was a productive outing for the rookie nonetheless with 8 points and 6 boards in 20 mintutes. His pick-setting ability is also improving by the game. Latsly, it was also good to see Foster out there, even in limited minutes when he didn’t do much.

Tough to find any more silver linings than that though.

Sure, it’s early, but, yeah, I’m getting sick of saying that and December is right around the corner. Last night, the offense was again a giant problem. And the 41.0% shooting from the floor we saw last night is actually buoyed quite heavily by several buckets in garbage time. They were down around the 36% mark towards the end of the 3rd quarter, at which point the game was already most certainly over.

Ultimately, they just have no one who can score. And no one who can be relied on to score, more fairly. I love Dahntay Jones’ aggressiveness, but he should not be someone we have to look to to carry the offense for quarters at a time. Just not gonna cut it.

I mean, Troy better get back to his 45% from three shooting from last year — and fast — if this team wants to even keep treading water until Dunleavy gets back. Hurry up, dude. Hurry up.

Doubt Brandon makes the cover this week.

Related posts:

1. Game #1 Recap: Hawks 120 – Pacers 109
   Actual Observations and Related, Possibly Stupid Conjectures
2. Game #10 Recap: Defense and Danny’s Big Plays Can’t Outweigh a Late Offensive Drought
3. 8p9s/Pacers TrueHoop Network Season Preview

So it feels the same as last year, right? Nah, I don’t think so. As I am screaming at the TV waiting patiently for the Pacers to hold on in the final minutes last night, I got the feeling that this wasn’t just luck. Maybe this team is different from last year.

NBA regular season games are just like days. They begin, and they end. In between, time passes and a series of events occur. Most of these events are repetitive, and sometimes they can create a monotonous rhythm that make it difficult to tell one game from another.

Within each game, there are moments. Flashes of something memorable — perhaps even special. They bring fans out of their seats or leave them cradling their heads in despair. As a recent NBA commercial noted, they are at once inspiring and demoralizing.

One of those moments occurred last night with the clock clicking through the 10 minute mark of the fourth quarter. After a shaky first half left the Pacers trailing by nine, the team responded with a dominant third quarter. A Brandon Rush three with 0:01 on the clock gave the Pacers a 5-point lead entering the final stanza. The Celtics, being the championship caliber team that they are, opened the fourth quarter with a 7-2 run to tie the game and set up our moment.

Pacer rookie Tyler Hansbrough tried to make a series of post moves — or he had a seizure, it’s difficult to tell — before putting up what could generously be described as a weak fadeaway. It was erased, with extreme prejudice, by Shelden Williams, who then beat Bro Hands down the floor to receive an alley-oop from Ray Allen and give the Cs an 88-86 lead. The relatively sizable contingent of Boston fans in Conseco went nuts, and the Pacers were forced to take a time out.

So, why in the world am I highlighting a moment that is so clearly inspirational for the Celtics and demoralizing for the Pacers? Because while a moment is over in an instant, its meaning is not yet defined. With the exception buzzer beaters, moments are defined by what happens after them. Moments become what the people involved can make of them.

Indiana made that moment the spot that they would make their stand. Less than a minute of game time after the time out, the Pacers had scored five points and grabbed a lead they would not relinquish. Instead of shrinking, they attacked, recapturing the intensity and pressure that they had brought to bear during their impressive third quarter. It was not the young Pacers who wilted, but the proud Celtics. It was not the Pacers who lost their composure, but the Celtics.

As the game started to slip away, the Celtics became chippier and more plaintive. Kendrick Perkins and Doc Rivers earned technicals that helped push the lead from one to four. The attack continued as O’Brien repeatedly called for Dahntay Jones (12 points, 2 assists, and 8 FTAs in the fourth) to isolate and exploit an injured Paul Pierce. The lead reached 11. And though the Celtics cut it to 6 a couple of times, the Pacers grip on the game seemed only to get stronger.

Attack, Attack, Attack

It is still important to keep things in perspective. The Indiana Pacers have not suddenly established themselves as a contender. They still will have a long, tough struggle to even make the playoffs. However, less than two weeks ago, things were very shaky. They had started the season 0-3. Worse yet, they had not been even vaguely competitive in their two home games. The team was chippy, and their starting backcourt (Ford and Rush) was horrible.

Even their three-game winning streak coming into last night’s game was viewed with a good deal of skepticism. The teams they defeated (Knicks, Wizards and Warriors) were far from a murderer’s row, and the offense had still been very spotty.

But, last night was different. It was a glimpse into what could be. The third quarter last night was as perfect as this Pacers team is likely to get. For the quarter, they posted an offensive rating of 149 and a defensive rating of 83.9. More importantly, the second half illustrated how successful the aggressive philosophy being preached by Coach Jim O’Brien can be. The question is always sustainability. Can they keep it up?

Last season, the only Pacer that really had the attack mentality that is so valuable in such a system was Jarrett Jack. His loss is a quality loss, but the new faces may make up for it with quantity. Luther Head, Earl Watson and Tyler Hansbrough each bring a great deal of intensity and a willingness to battle. Each has made good contributions so far. However, Dahntay Jones is clearly the most glowing example of this new attitude.

These guys all attack, attack, attack. The great part is that it’s clearly having a positive influence on some important Pacers. Roy Hibbert is becoming more confident and, subsequently, a far more effective and important piece of this team. T.J. Ford has become more comfortable with his role and is working better with his teammates. Brandon Rush has relaxed and become more aggressive defensively and on the boards and, as a result, become more confident with his shooting.

Perhaps most importantly, Danny Granger is growing to trust these new faces. He is no longer forcing the action, and he’s regained his shooting touch (50% overall and from three the last two games). He’s playing a more complete game, grabbing 16 boards against the Warriors and adding 4 assists, 3 steals and 1 block to his 29 points and 6 boards last night.

What Will the Pacers Make of This Moment?

Perhaps we are seeing the coalescing of a playoff team. Maybe, just maybe, this year’s core is establishing itself in unexpected places. The Pacers have a very favorable early schedule. This week brings them a back-to-back against the currently winless Nets and the currently incompetent Knicks. This will be a good test of their focus and ability to beat bad teams.

Next Friday, they’ll get to test themselves against the elite again, as LeBron James and the Cavaliers come to town. That will mark the first 10 games of the season, and it will be a nice place for a progress report.

They say you can’t win championships (or make the playoffs) in November and December, but you sure can lose them. The 2009 Pacers finished 10 games under .500 and three games out of the playoffs. They left December 2008 sitting 11 games under .500.

This week is important.

Related posts:

1. Game #1 Recap: Hawks 120 – Pacers 109
   Actual Observations and Related, Possibly Stupid Conjectures
2. Game #1: Recapping the Recaps
3. The Summer Losses: Marquis Daniels

And given the number of non-AP recaps proliferating around the internet, Pacer fans can probably spend all day reading different people’s takes on the opener. The internet keeps it thorough like that.

I can’t say I’ve read them all yet, but it’s hard to believe that anyone can sum up Indy’s painful offense last night better than Kelly Dwyer of Ball Don’t Lie did.

(it’s like the Hawks had five Deion Sanders’ out there, at times), and it was only the sweet shooting of Earl Watson (you read that right) that kept the Pacers in contention.

The sweet shooting of Earl Watson. I like that. Let’s try that again.

The delicate stylings of Napalm Death.

The cogent musings of Gary Busey.

The rapier wit of Jay Leno.

The definitely not stabbing anyone of O.J. Simpson.

Don’t complain about O.J. Simpson jokes. I learned from the rapier wit of Jay Leno.

When it comes to Pacer/Hawks recaps, I think Dwyer just earned himself a chicken dinner. Here’s the best of the rest for your reading pleasure.

• Cornrows: “Possession of the ball is nine tenths of the loss.”

• Mike Wells: “The Pacers’ supposed new defense was nowhere to be found in the Atlanta metropolitan area”

• Indy Basketball Report: “Indiana finished the game with one steal while Atlanta registered 16″

• John Hollinger: “Indy’s interceptions ruined a superb shooting night”

• Pacers Digest / UncleBuck: “One thing the Hawks aren’t very good at is half court offense, but they seemingly had no problem scoring against the Pacers defense”

• AP: “The game finally turned when Atlanta started cutting off the driving lanes and Johnson got in Granger’s face. Indiana’s star was held to four points in the final period”

• Sekou Smith (ATL): “Horford had a masterful opening night, finishing with 24 points, a game-high 16 rebounds and two blocks as all five Hawks starters scored in double figures.”

• Hoopinion: “Through a little more than three quarters, Jim O’Brien got a lot out of Dahntay Jones and Earl Watson. Then he asked them for more and learned they’d given all they had.”

• Peachtree Hoops (ATL): “Jeff Teague enjoys the game out there. After that steal and dunk, the kid was uncontrollably smiling.”

• Human Highlight Blog: “Granger was in the game he must have been wearing his Cloak of Invisibility, because he found himself wide open a bit too much for someone of his considerable talents.”

Repeat after me: It’s only one game. It’s only one game. It’s only one game.

Related posts:

1. Game #1 Preview: Sekou Smith Talks Hawks
2. By the Numbers: Recapping the Preseason
3. Game #1 Recap: Hawks 120 – Pacers 109
   Actual Observations and Related, Possibly Stupid Conjectures

There’s really no excuse for an NBA coughing up the ball that many times. Still, it was the opener. For a squad that really needs to get off to a good start to avert a woe-is-me attitude that’s constantly lingering after three years without a playoff game and more games missed due to injuries than I care to count, begining the season this sloppily is very bad. But it is only one game. And the only thing less important than October basketball is preseason basketball.

So they get a pass. There are 81 more of these things, so there is no need to over-analyze a game where the team shot well enough to beat the reigning fourth seed in the Eastern Conference but valued the ball poorly enough to lose to the Fever.

Instead of trying to pretend we can learn much of anything from tonight’s performance, then, my plan was to just stick to straight observations for this recap. Of course, I’m completely incapable of not over-analyzing minutiae and trying to inject nuance into the mundane, so please humor me. But just so we can all easily recognize that the things I’m reading into certain plays and “trends” are coming entirely too early to have any real significance, I’ll break these thoughts down into two parts each:

1. Actual, legitimate, objective observations from the game
2. Related, possibly stupid conjectures that have, I’d say, a roughly 50/50 shot of being complete lies and/or total wastes of your time

Away we go.

Ummmm … Turnovers.

1. Keep It High, Hibbert — You’re Very Tall

Actual Observation - About one minute into the game, Roy Hibbert muscled aggressively to grab an offensive board. He then kept his arms fully extended with the ball way above his head. He then easily laid it in the basket for two points.

Related, Possibly Stupid Conjecture – This should happen threes times per game.

2. Granger Gets Buckets

Actual Observation – About two minutes into the game, Granger allayed all fears about his heel early being worrisome with a great dribble drive to the rim for a lay in.

Related, Possibly Stupid Conjecture – After the whole league had a full summer to acknowledge, watch film on and gameplan around his range, Danny is going to get like easy buckets like this several times each night when he catches a rotating defender closing out him too hard and then walks right by them all the way to the rim. And scoring will get even easier for him as this virtuous circle comes around again and people start to worry about his penetration and just buries jumper after jumper in people’s mugs. Danny has a chance to top 28 ppg this year. There are that many possession out there and this offense makes it difficult to stop him from getting points even if the defense’s plan it to try to take that away.

3. Was Troy Shaving Points?

Actual Observation - Multiple times throughout the night, Troy Murphy threw the ball away in such a baffling manner that it made me think he might be shaving points. About two minutes into the game, he got in trouble in the post and picked up his dribble and threw the ball directly to Marvin Williams. Later, Murphy pretty much gave Josh Smith a dribble hand-off in the half court. Later still, he hit a defender in the chest with Stocktonesque accuracy on an outlet pass after a defensive rebound.

Related, Possibly Stupid Conjecture – This behavior seems completely anomalous, and I obviously know he was not actually shaving points in any way whatsoever, so let’s just call it “one of those nights.” Regardless, I will from now on start referring to these as “I Know Troy Is From New Jersey But He Doesn’t Have any Mafia Bookie Connections, Does He?” turnovers.

In legitimate concern news, his horrible decision-making made me again think about David Berri pointing out Troy’s wild statistitical variance from year-to-year. And that really wasn’t something I wanted to think about ever again. So … Let’s all just pretend Murphy is a leadpipe lock to be just as productive as he was last year and never speak of tonight’s turnovers again. Ok?

4. Brandon Should Focus on Defense

Actual Observation – One one possession in the first quarter, Brandon Rush completely flustered Joe Johnson with his defense, knocking the ball away from Mr. Johnson. Joe quickly regathered the ball, but seemed very frustrated and soon launched a fallaway 20-footer with Rush pretty much inside his jersey. Joe didn’t even draw iron.

Related, Possibly Stupid Conjecture – I know everyone wants Brandon to be a complementary scorer to Granger. And, yes, anyone who saw the fourth quarter last night now knows that the offense certainly could use that. But if Rush is going to cement himself as a starter-level player in this league, this is where he earns his money. This is what he needs to be doing. He did it well throughout the game last night and looking at the larger sample size of last season, it’s safe to say that he is a guy who gets his hands on lots of balls. (I know how that sounds, but there’s no other way to write it. Seriously. Ok, maybe it could have been written a little better.) What Brandon should try to do is emulate the blueprint plans that Trevor Ariza laid out. (1) Be a plus defender, (2) float on offense, and (3) get your buckets in open space within the natural flow of the offense. Whether those points come from knockdown threes after a swing pass, catching and converting on passes while cutting through the paint, or quick drives from the perimeter when there is a clear lane to attack is not really important. What is important, however, is that he makes playing high-quality defense his primary mission and doesn’t burn a ton of calories trying to be cute with the ball on the perimeter while trying to score. In this offense, opportunities to score will come.

5. Small, Quick Bigs Will Be a Problem

Actual Observation – In the first quarter, Horford caught the ball at the high post with Hibbert guarding him. He dribbled hard right and went right by Hibbert with ease. He finished just as easily. He was too quick for Hibbert and Horford knew it. They both did. In a similar situation later in the first half, Horford, who was holding the ball in the high post and being guarded by Hibbert again, passed cross court to Josh Smith, who was hanging out near the baseline. Hibbert rotated over to proper helpside location on the pass. But when Smith quickly whipped the ball back to Horford, Al was able to stick a relatively unguarded six-footer.

Related, Possibly Stupid Conjecture – Sure, you will rarely see an interior give-and-go done this quickly or with this much precision. And, sure, most centers would get beat by this play. But most would get a better contest on the shot. Here, Horford got off the attempt as comfortably as he would in shootaround. Hibbert got beat worse than most big men would because of his poor lateral quickness. And Horford was able to exploit this all night. Smaller big men like Horford will continue to give the Pacers front court fits. We saw it very often last year, most memorably that night in November when Amaré came through Conseco like a tornado. We will see it consistently this year, too. Small, athletic centers will be able to score in bunches, then rinse and repeat.

6. Frenetic Play Is Good and Bad

Actual Observation – Right after Solomon Jones entered the game, he found himself playing helpside D when the ball-handler was in the corner and his man was near the opposite elbow. He stood there under the basket, wildly looking back and forth between his two responsibilities and seemed to be overwhelmed by all the excitement going on around him.

Related, Possibly Stupid Conjecture – I’ll chalk this up to Solo still being inexperienced and having nerves due to the fact that he is trying to carve out a role on a new team that he might actually be able to get burn for. But Solomon Jones looked lost and frenetic out there — and it wasn’t just on this one play. Again, let’s cut him a lot of slack because he unfairly tasked with checking Josh Smith when he entered the game, but his head was on a complete swivel. And not in a good way. He looked like it was one of those instances where the game was seeing a game that was moving at 130 mph. With more minutes, I’m sure the game will slow down for him, but the catch-22 of this situation is — as always — that it’s hard for a coach to give a guy enough minutes for the game to start slowing down for him as long as the guy plays like a confused bobblehead out there.

On a larger scale, this “game is too fast” thing is a problem with this entire roster — and it was last year. The team is full of frenetic players. Almost no one out there can just catch the ball, breathe easy and do something constructive. Everything feels rushed and urgent. And, again, not urgent in a good way. Few Pacer players are able to obey the proverbial “Be Quick, But Don’t Hurry” mantra. Granger can mostly, but even he gets a little over-eager at times.

The one guy who seems most able to provide a sense of calm to a possession is Mike Dunleavy Jr. Or, at least he could two seasons ago when he was healthy. He could hold the ball and move with it for effect and to allow the other guys to run the offense and find proper positioning. TJ struggles with that. He is always water-bugging around out there. He’s never still. Never calming. Obviously, one of the reasons that the Pacers offense can be so potent for stretches is that other teams can’t keep up with that frenetic pace. But, again, there is someone of a catch-22 there since the teams has a roster full of players who often can’t keep up either. Unless these guys learn to keep up, it’s hard to see a lot more consistency or any ability to properly harness the offense late in games when necessary — which means we’re probably in store for just as many blown leads, overcome deficits and wild swings as last year. Exhibit A, is the team’s scoring by quarter last night: 32, 33, 29, 15.

7. Bully Mentality

Actual Observation – In a momentary lack of discipline, Earl Watson bit on a jump-fake by Joe Smith, leaped into him and put a jump-shooter on the line.

Related, Possibly Stupid Conjecture – Whatever. Happens. What’s interesting is that he flew in to the big fella, knocking him down hard and looked down like “What? Get up” as he did it. Then, later, in the fourth quarter, Dahntay Jones “tangled feet” with Joe Johnson, sending the silent assassin to the floor. Dahntay seemed to have a similar attitude after that play.

Neither one of these plays were mean or nasty. Neither was cheap or unprofessional. But they both had an edgy feel to them that made the guys seem a little bit like bullies. This roster could use some bullies.

8. Dahntay Jones: Not For Offense

Actual Observation – Dahntay Jones did some work in the second quarter. To kick things off, he made a nice move to the right to get into the paint for a finger roll at the cup. Then, on the other end of the floor, he aggressively attacked the glass, leaping laterally to snatch one of those “a couple of guys on my team probably could have gotten it that rebound but it’s mine — MINE” rebounds. After he grabbed the board, he dribbled hard up the floor and, near the top of the key, stutter-step faked to shake a defender at the top of the key, freezing him just enough to go by him and leave the defender with no choice but to foul and send him to the line, where he knocks down two freebies. Fast forward another two possessions, and Dahntay drove by Marvin Williams from the wing (after a Pacer who was posting up clears out to give Jones the lane) and not only got to the rim for a lay-in, but also got to the line to complete the three-point play.

Related, Possibly Stupid Conjecture – This offensive flurry was impressive from a guy constantly characterized as having no offensive game. It made me think, maybe he can score? Maybe his production was just retarded in Denver because they so many other guys capable of filling it up? Maybe he can not only bring tough-nosed D to Indiana but also a be a legitimate third option who can create his own shot?

Then I remembered that I watched Denver play like 30 times last season.

Sure, he can do these things on offesne a little. Like, in very limited bursts. Because as was foreshadowed about one minute after his highly effective, early second quarter scoring spree, he also tries to do too much if he’s given the green light. He’s not a great penetrator. He has quickness and some ball-handling ability so can catch guys leaning the wrong way. Guys who close out on him lazily are prone to being caught flat-footed. But Denver fans will be the first to let you know that he should not be facing people up and trying to make a move. He’s a good finisher, a capable slasher and an occasional penetrator. But he’s not a creator. He is not the guy you want to be holding the ball and trying to create a shot when the defense is set. To be productive, he needs to be in open space. Offensively, he thrives in chaos. Havoc is his comfort zone. He regresses within structure. Order is his poison.

If this is the case and if my earlier suggestion is correct that Brandon Rush is more suited to be a good defender in this league than a scorer, then where do the Pacers get their points. The offense shoutd create opportunities, but it is still an uphill battle until Dunleavy gets back. I was hoping that Luther Head can bring some firepower. He looked semi-capable last night. And, hey, maybe Watson can keep shooting like that. We can also assume that TJ Ford won’t put up a Baron Davis-like 1-for-9 shooting every night.

No matter where it comes from, however, and no matter how impressive Dahntay looks here and there, they way the fourth quarter went last night should tell have at least taught us one thing: If the Pacers need to rely on Dahntay Jones to create offense, things could get ugly.

Related posts:

1. Game #1 Preview: Sekou Smith Talks Hawks
2. 8p9s/Pacers TrueHoop Network Season Preview
3. Pacers/Hawks ESPN Live Chat Tonight at 7:00

I haven’t read the preview in its entirety yet, but in addition to breakdowns of all 30 teams, I’m really looking forward to seeing Kevin’s chat with Blake Griffin, The Painted Area’s forward-looking “10 NBA Questions for the 2010s” and the thrilling conclusion of Henry’s ongoing series on Wayne Winston, the Indiana University professor who has has been the Dallas Mavericks’ stat guru for the past nine year and authored the book “Mathletics.”

As for me, I naturally did the Pacers preview. (In related news, I did a different, yet similarly toned Pacers preview for Heels on Hardwood.) And aside from informing you that this post consists of nine separate sections, each of which is explained under the heading, there’s not a lot else that needs saying.

So here it is: Your TrueHoop Network 2009-10 Pacers Season Preview. Enjoy.

Crowd Says / Blogger Says

The consensus win total prediction of the TrueHoop Network bloggers …
and the best hopes of the blogger who covers the team.

Yes We Can!

The sun is out. The seas have parted. The basketball gods are shining upon us.

The Pacers franchise is in tumult. So much has changed since Ron Artest charged into the stands. The roster has been torn down. The playoffs have become merely a fond memory. The stands have emptied. The owners have hemorrhaged millions.

To stem the tide, the Pacers need a jolt of positivity. And on-court success is likely the only thing that will reinvigorate the fan base and re-brand the Pacers as something other than a punch line. This upcoming season may not exactly be playoffs or bust, but it’s hard to believe that anything short of the postseason will remove the dark cloud over Conseco.

Given all this, it would be great to pretend that there is a nuanced range of factors that will determine how successful the 2009-10 season will be. But that’s just not the case. Ultimately, it will come down to one thing: Dunleavy’s knee.

Currently, we know very little about how healthy Junior is. Although the self-assessments on Mike’s aptly titled blog “You, Me and My Knee” have been optimistic, guys like Gilbert Arenas have previously predicted ahead-of-schedule returns only to suffer setbacks. And Pacers fans know all too well how Jermaine O’Neal’s continual confidence worked out.

But we shouldn’t presume the worst. The original prognosis was for a Christmas return, so anything that accelerates Mike’s comeback is positive news. Until Dunleavy returns to the court, however, the Pacers roster will likely look as rudderless as it has since the last time he was healthy.

Danny Granger’s emergence as one of the most promising, fundamentally sound players in the league buoyed the franchise last season. By early December, Granger displayed a dynamic, multi-faceted game that few of even his largest supporters knew existed. Troy Murphy’s newfound proficiency was even less expected, and I’m not sure even his relatives foresaw gaudy stats like 14.3 ppg and 11.8 rpg on 45 percent shooting from 3-point range.

If Dunleavy can round out that trio, the Pacers should end their three-year playoff drought next April. Many will scoff at a surrounding cast of TJ Ford, Brandon Rush, Jeff Foster, Roy Hibbert, Tyler Hansbrough, Dahntay Jones and Earl Watson. Don’t listen to those skeptics. Larry Bird may not have discovered an array of future All-Stars, but he has assembled a cast of capable role players.

The development and integration of these secondary players will make for an interesting story this year regardless of anything else. With everything that has happened since the Malice in the Palace, however, interesting stories no longer resonate in Indianapolis. This team needs a playoff appearance. Realities on and off the court demand organizational progress.

Will it happen? If Mike Dunleavy plays 70 games, it should. And if he doesn’t? Well, at least the Pacers will have one more lottery pick to build around.

No You Don’t

A rousing dissent from a rival blogger.

“Listen, Mr. Legend. Larry Bird is not walking through that door – no matter how many times you try to find the next Larry Bird.”

– Ryan Schwan of Hornets247

All-a-Twitter

140-characters of insight into the soul of the team.

On the Record

Single best quote concerning the team during the last 12 months.

“The last three or four years have been disasters, and generally speaking, you can almost pinpoint it from the [brawl] game in Detroit. Not only has our fan base deteriorated but our financial condition has, too.”

– Pacers Co-Owner Herb Simon (Indianapolis Star, 2/4/2009)

The 2008-09 Almanac

Some key stats from last season.

If Jim O’Brien is coaching a team, there will be threes — and with good reason. Since O’Brien took over, the Pacers have shot 37.8% and 37.4% from behind the arc the past two seasons, good for eighth-best in the league both years. While those numbers are decent, what is more impressive is how his spread offensive system has been able to improve his key players’ long-range accuracy. Here are some numbers showing how four Pacer players have benefited from “The O’Brien Bump” after they started playing for the coach with the Paulie Walnuts hair.

The Play

With the Pacers down one and 9.2 seconds to play…

Troy Murphy inbounds to Mike Dunleavy, who jab-steps, pump-fakes and then leans right before ripping the ball across his body to dribble left along the perimeter. Danny Granger moves towards Mike, takes a dribble hand-off and drives hard towards the top of the key. The defenders switch and the guy guarding Mike jumps in front of Granger. Danny catches him off-balance, crosses the ball back over to his left and steps back. He pulls up, elevates and releases the ball at the top of his jump shot. All net.

(Although if there’s only 0.9 seconds left, I suggest they just go with this play again.)

The People’s Choice

The fan favorite the crowd will be chanting for to see some action.

Tyler Hansbrough will be a rotation fixture, but fans will always want to see more of his relentless hustle and frenetic tenacity. And why not? Floor burns, black eyes and tip-ins will always trump blown rotations, missed assignments and sloppy close-outs in the popular vote.

If You’re Watching the Bottom Line, You’re Watching This

The single biggest financial issue hanging over the team.

Between the onerous contracts the front office acquired to unload Stephen Jackson (a burden otherwise known as the “Murphleavy Compromise”) and the go-away money spent to make Jamaal Tinsley disappear, the Pacers salary situation has become an organizational millstone. But there is now a light at the end of the tunnel. The Tinsley buyout and the deals of Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy and TJ Ford all come off the cap in the summer of 2011, at which point Indy’s management can once again start making personnel decisions based on talent rather than affordability.

Related posts:

1. Exiting the Tinsley Bear Trap
2. William Carlos Williams’ Pacers Season Preview
3. Season Preview Season

Jarrett Jack was only in Indy for one year, but he had a large impact. In fact, earlier this summer, Indy Cornrows named Jarrett the second greatest “single-season Pacer” of all time. It’s hard to argue against that claim.

It wasn’t so much that Jack was this transcendent player who fit seamlessly with the team and uplifted the franchise or anything. Far from it. But he was the right fit at the perfect time.

Initially, fans disappointed by the 2008 Draft day trade that sent the Pacers first round pick (the 19-year-old athletic wonder and University of Arizona standout guard Jerryd Bayless) to the Trailblazers for Brandon Rush (who was generally viewed as a potentially solid pro, but a player with a much lower ceiling than Bayless) saw Jarrett Jack as merely a throw-in to that deal. As an NBA point guard, Jack had never set himself apart from even a questionable NBA starter like Steve Blake in Portland, so what great value could he possibly be?

As it turned out he brought exactly that to Indiana: great value.

Less of a traditional point guard and more of an undersized two, Jarrett found himself in a situation suited for him to shine. Mike Dunleavy’s knee injury proved much more serious than initially thought, and less than a month into the season, it was already becoming clear that newly acquired point guard TJ Ford, who joined the roster just days before Jack in the pre-draft trade that shipped Jermaine O’Neal to Toronto, was probably not going to shape up to be the assist machine or consistent shooter that people such as myself believed he would be in Jim O’Brien’s offense. Don’t get me wrong; TJ was adequate, but once it became clear that Dunleavy was facing an uphill batttle to return to action, the back court desperately needed another capable ball-handler who could create some offense.

Enter Jarrett Jack.

Jack is by no means a big-time NBA player. But he is aggressive and has a bulldog fearlessness that can alternately invigorate an offense and frustrate fans — sometimes during the same possession. Along with Jarrett’s tenacity in the open court and his confidence going to the hoop came head-scratching turnovers. Foolish jump passers were frequent and erratic, guarded jump shots came early in the shot clock. But on a team full of tentative ball-handlers and players who preferred shooting step-back threes in space over driving to the hole or getting to the foul line, Jack’s persona provided cojones.

Eventually, those qualities seemed to be what allowed Jarrett to supplant TJ in the starting point guard role. After the team dropped 11 of 13 games from November 21 – December 1 (a losing streak during which TJ shot 41.3% from the floor) it became clear that a change — any change — was needed. Given the personnel available, it’s not like coach O’Brien had a ton of options. In short order, Jack began getting the nod at point. And when TJ began missing games with injury, the point guard spot seemed to be Jack’s position to lose.

But, once again, Jarrett Jack is not really a point guard. So before long, he did lose forfeit the car keys back to TJ. A five-game losing streak in March, however, led to Jack once again taking over the starting role in this ongoing point guard ping pong routine. And neither option was bringing beautiful basketball to the table. But both did have their moments — particularly in the clutch — and it would be hard for anyone aside from Brandon Rush to argue that the most potent lineup that the 08-09 Pacers could put on the court was one that featured both TJ and Jack in the back court, where, depending on your outlook, either (1) they both played point guard at the same time, or (2) neither did.

Looking at the numbers, it would seem that the Pacers have also lost something significant quantitatively. Here is how Jack ranked among all the players on the Pacers roster, with the numbers in parentheses being his totals in each category.

Jarrett Jack in 2008-09

Traditional
PPG – 6th (13.1)
APG – 2nd (4.1)
A/TO – 3rd (1.84)

Advanced*
PER – 8th (13.1)
TS% – 5th (.554)
ORtg – 9th (107)
DRtg – 11th (111)
WS – 5th (4.1)
OWS – 4th (2.3)
DWS – 4th (1.8)

* PER – Player Efficiency Rating | TS% – True Shooting Percentage | ORtg – Offensive Rating | DRtg – Defensive Rating | WS – Win Shares | OWS – Offensive Win Shares | DWS – Defensive Win Shares

The Pacers will certainly miss Jack’s ability to fill in when TJ is in going through one of his funks — whether it lasts for a few minutes or a few weeks. Earl Waston will bring some nice stability to the fold during those times — something that Jack was not really capable of — but he obviously can not bring the same versatility or penetrating ability that Jarrett did.

Still, as a player, Jack’s game has many holes. He can score, but he’s not a scorer. He can run an offense, but he’s not a floor general. He can make plays, but he’s not a play-maker. He can guard people, but he can’t stop anybody. Ultimately, if he is a starter on your team — particularly a starter at point guard — your team is flawed. And as we all know, the Pacers are flawed. While the offseason did (theoretically) address a few of those defensive failings, it did little to replace Jack’s offensive aggression. Dahntay Jones should bring a similar bulldog mentality to the defense, but he just doesn’t have the offensive talent for that to translate to the other end of the floor. And the Pacers other two perimeter acquisitions, Luther Head and Earl Watson, are relatively passive players in comparison to Jarrett.

What Jarrett Jack brought to the team is definitely going to be difficult to replace. And no matter how much you like his game, that reality probably says more about the talent deficiency in the Pacers back court than it does about Jarrett himself.

Up next: Rasho Nesterovic.

Lamar Odom can attest to to Jack’s fiery demeanor.

Related posts:

1. It’s Official: Jarrett Jack Is Headed to Toronto
2. Toronto Introduces Jarrett Jack
3. The Summer Losses: Marquis Daniels

For an eight-year NBA vet who also spent four years as the starting point guard in the esteemed UCLA basketball program, Earl Watson has managed to remain largely off the radar of most NBA fans. Best known as a solid defender and a guy capable of initiating an offense, Watson has had career stops in Seattle, Memphis, Denver, back to Seattle and then on to Oklahoma City when the Sonics became the Thunder.

Royce Young, on the other hand, is a guy best know for running arguably the best Thunder blog on the innertubes, Daily Thunder. He has been a diehard follower of the team since its humble beginnings nearly one year ago and has certainly watched them play a lot more than you have. Fortunately for us, he agreed to spend some of his precious time answering a few questions about the new point guard the Pacers just acquired. And he did all for you. Because he cares.

Remember this moment if he ever asks you to give him a kidney.

As always, I supplied the Qs, he supplied the answers.

Q1. Watson had a subpar season statistically last year, even for him. I’m hearing that this can be attributed to his unhappiness with not playing as much due to the Thunder youth movement and the fact that he busted his thumb at the beginning of the year. What actually happened?

Royce: I think it was a combination of the two. He did have some thumb issues on his shooting hand for most of the season. When that finally healed up, he put up a couple of his best games. Another part was that he just didn’t play well. He wasn’t productive when he was on the court, he didn’t shoot well and he turned the ball over more than he ever had before. He was so unproductive that eventually Scott Brooks tried Chucky Atkins at the backup point behind Russell Westbrook. Chucky Atkins! His thumb injury was definitely a large part of it, but it just seemed like Earl got in a rut when he got put behind Westbrook and he was never able to break out of it. His bad attitude didn’t really start until he was put at the end of the bench behind Atkins, so I don’t know how much that had to do with it.

Q2. How did he look on the court when he was playing?

Royce: At times, really good. He was always a threat for a fancy pass or a nice lob. He was a quality defender and played hard for the most part. But he was also the worst elbow jumpshooter I’ve ever seen and sometimes it seemed like he was on the court by himself. He forgot about teammates and would just shoot at will.

Q3. His three-point shooting was atrocious last year (23.5%), particularly in the 15 games he played in during the second half (16.1%). What was that all about and do you think he can bounce back above 35% next season in Jim O’Brien’s spread offense? He was up over 38% when he was playing with Ray and Rashard in Seattle’s free-wheeling, shoot-em-up offense back before your town hijacked the Sonics. Can he get back to that level?

Royce: He just took bad shots. Most the threes he took were forced and came low in the shot clock or with a hand in his face. He really has awful shooting form and it was just kind of a miracle if it went in. I’m sure for the most part, the low percentage was just bad shot selection. But some it also is just because he’s not a very good shooter.

Q4. Were you upset to see him leave?

Royce: Absolutely not. He really drove me crazy. He took a lot of bad shots and would force passes. It almost seemed like he played with a chip on his shoulder, but the wrong kind of chip. Like when he was on the floor he wanted to prove HE should be getting the bulk of the minutes. He forced the issue and wasn’t much of a team point guard. Plus, he just looks plain weird.

Q5. Indiana hasn’t made many major acquisitions this offseason. Is there any reason Pacer fans should get excited about picking up Earl Watson?

Royce: Umm, I wouldn’t. But we kind of tried to talk ourselves in Etan Thomas this week, so it’s not like I would blame anyone for doing it. Earl can be a nice player. He’s a perfect backup point guard that can give you 20 good minutes a night. But that’s if he can accept that role. If he pouts and presses the way he did in OKC, then you’ll be a little sad 15 games in. But if he settles into a role, he could make you pretty happy I think. He’s not going to blow you away and rejuvinate his career or anything, but he can be productive for sure.

Related posts:

1. Earl Watson Is Now a Pacer
2. Earl Watson Live Chat: Today at 4:30 pm
3. UPDATE: Earl Watson Live Chat