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Game #12

Game #12 Recap – Too Little, Too Late

by Tim Donahue on November 25, 2009 at 2:15 am · 1 comment

Pacers vs. Raptors
112 Score 123
39/86 FG/FGA 43/77
45.3% FG% 55.8%
12-27 3PA/3PM 9-18
44.4% 3PT% 10.0%
52.3% eFG% 61.7%
22-26 FT/FTA 28-37
84.6% FT% 75.7%
34 (7) Rebounds (Offensive) 43 (8)
13 Turnovers 13
26 Assists 28
3 Steals 7
4 Blocks 8

I believe the exact words I used were “real ugly, real quick.” Regrettably, I understated the issue.  After O’Brien made a lineup change specifically designed to address their pick and roll defense issues, the Pacers opened the game by — wait for it — being torched twice on successive pick and rolls. Such was the start to a 1st half that had Toronto and Indiana announcers scrambling to see what the Raps’ record was for most points scored in the first half. (It’s 79.) I could go into the details, but do you really want re-live a half where the Pacers’ biggest (only) accomplishment was to prevent the Raps from setting that record (by holding them to 74)?

Suffice it to say that the Pacers had dug themselves a 21-point hole by allowing Toronto to shoot a ridiculous .695 eFG%, while putting up an anemic .432 themselves against the worst defense in the league. (Well, excluding the one that played for the Pacers in the first half.)

The game would have been a complete disaster if not for a guest appearance by the 2008-2009 version of Danny Granger in the second half. After going three for 12 in the first half, Danny announced his arrival with back-to-back three’s to open the third quarter.  From there, he proceeded to put together a 22-point half and finish with team highs in points (36), rebounds (9), and assists (5). It was, unfortunately, too little too late, as the Pacers were outscored 26-20 after they cut the deficit to five with 33 seconds left in the third.

If the Celtic game was an illustration of what might be, then the last three games show how far this team really is from that ideal. The team still largely plays as if they just met when they got to the arena, and the offense is putrid unless Danny is hitting on all cylinders. Last year’s team brought a puncher’s chance into virtually every game with their shooting, but this year’s team has lacked any kind of consistent firepower. The defense, while improved, is still not capable of dealing with a team with strong ball movement and a lot of shooters like Toronto. The Raptors are, after all, the top offensive team in the league.

Where this goes from here is difficult to tell. The confusion will likely remain as Indiana tries to work Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster back into the rotation.  Hopefully, Mike Dunleavy’s return will further complicate matters next week.  Meanwhile, the Pacers continue a replay of last season’s early wasted opportunities. In the current four-game losing streak, they’ve dropped games to two bad teams (New York and Charlotte) and one exceedingly mediocre team (Toronto). They are 3-4 at home. They cannot afford to dig the same hole they did last year in November and December, particularly since they’ve had an unbelievably favorable schedule to this point.

In any case, here are some other observations on a relatively depressing evening:

  • Jeff Foster was finally Jeff Foster in the second half tonight. He didn’t have a great box score, but he brought good defense on Bosh and some much needed energy. Also, it was nice to see a big man who could actually execute in the high post. If you watch Foster’s game, he gives an excellent illustration of how a non-scorer can actually help the offense. The Pacers last real chance to may have come when they failed to convert on two vintage Foster offensive rebounds on the same possession early in the fourth.
  • Roy Hibbert scored 8 points in 11 first half minutes, but did not see action in the second. Much will be made of this in some quarters, but it will be much ado about nothing. While it was very nice to see two well-executed pick and rolls between Roy and Earl Watson, his numbers look more impressive than they really were, and the team was -12 with him on the floor. The Pacers needed to scramble to get back into the game, and Solomon Jones was given a shot. When the team played well with Solo in, it was pretty clear that Roy was going to be done for the night. He’ll be back in the starting lineup tomorrow against the Clippers.
  • Troy Murphy finally hit a couple of threes in the fourth quarter, but there’s a whole lot that worries me about Troy’s game at this point. He had two big rebounds (one offensive, one defensive) simply bounce off of his hands down the stretch. He’s never been a fantastic player, and he had decent numbers (11 & 8), but they seem more like empty calories than ever before. In his ESPN chat today, Chad Ford said, “…And I think the Pacers have to start thinking about dumping Troy Murphy. He’s unhappy sharing minutes with Hansbrough and has been sulking a bit. Given that Murphy does two things (rebound and shoot threes) that could help a myriad of playoff teams, I think the Pacers could get something decent in return.” Now, I don’t see any real evidence of Troy sulking, but I have no inside access, either. You have to wonder what, if any, source Ford has for this info. If the Pacers could find a taker for Troy willing to send back expiring contracts, the much needed cap relief would make it awfully tempting to pull the trigger and move forward with the younger bigs (Hibbert, Hansbrough, and Solo).
  • Buckaroo Banzai (Tyler Hansbrough, for the uncouth and unitiated) had another nice showing.  The final line shows 10 points, 4 boards, and a block in 15 minutes. The highlight play was a rebound and stuff that cut the deficit to 97-92 late in the third, but that was not his most impressive moment. In the first half, he had two very nice post moves, and the game seems to be slowing down for him. Given the fact that the guy missed all of training camp and preseason, you have to be pleased with his first eight games.
  • The relationship between T.J. Ford and Jim O’Brien is going to be something to watch closely.  Ford scored 16 on 6 of 10 shooting tonight, but he was lethargic in the first half. More troubling, he got an earful from O’Brien in the 4th for putting no effort into fighting over a screen, which resulted in Jarrett Jack hitting a big three-pointer. O’Brien immediately called for Watson, but there was no stoppage of play that would allow for the substitution. Shortly thereafter, there was an animated conversation between Ford (on the court) and O’Brien (on the sideline). Ford continued to make his point after O’Brien apparently lost interest in the conversation, turning and walking away.
  • The former Pacers on the Raptors killed Indiana tonight. Jarrett Jack broke out of a prolonged shooting slump by hitting all seven of his shots, including three from behind the line. He added 6 assists to his 18 points. Though I hate the success was against the Pacers, I always liked JJ, and I’m glad to see him have some. Rasho’s game, on the other hand, rankled. Considering the fact that Nesterovic spent the last half of last season in Indiana doing a stunningly accurate impression of a corpse, imagine my surprise when he hung 12 points and 7 boards on the Pacers in his 16 minutes of play. Now, he did have some quality games for the Pacers early in the season last year, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for the time being. However, if he’s still producing come April, then I’m going to take to heart all of the rumors that he basically mailed in last season because he didn’t want to be in Indy, and consider him a douche bag.

Other items of note: The Pacers bench was outscored by the Raptor’s bench 50-34…After a crappy offensive 1st half, the Pacers scored 39 points in the third, posting an Offensive Rating for the period of over 150 and an eFG% of .708…For the game, the Pacers’ Offensive Rating was 114.3, their second best outing of the year, but the Defensive Rating of 125.5 was the worst of the season…Dahntay Jones scored 12 points off the bench in 27 minutes. The playing time is over 7 minutes below his  season’s average…Brandon Rush (@KCsFinest09) tweeted this afternoon, “Coach is gonna try to kill us today n practice. We got our ass chewed out n film.” For all the good it did.

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Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors
Air Canada Centre
Toronto, Ontario
7:00 PM EST

Pacers vs. Raptors
5-6 (8th) Record 6-8 (9th)
Lost 3 Streak Lost 1
-1.45 (16th) Avg Scoring Margin -1.57 (17th)
98.7 (18th) Points Per Game 106.3 (4th)
101.9 (25th) Offensive Rating 114.7 (1st)
103.4 (10th) Defensive Rating 116.4 (30th)
.476 (24th) eFG% .521 (5th)
.471 (3rd) Opponent's eFG% .517 (24th)
96.9 (2nd) Pace 92.6 (15th)

Glossary: Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | eFG% | Pace

It’s shaping up to be a very odd season for your boys in Blue & Gold.  Thus far, they’ve sandwiched two three-game losing streaks around one five-game winning streak. Tonight, they open a back-to-back in Toronto trying to keep the second losing streak from reaching four.  Whip-lashed Pacer fans are understandably unsure of what to expect.

If you’re hoping I’m going to make you feel better, you’re going to be sorely disappointed. Looking at all 11 games as a whole, the most consistent themes were not positive ones.

  • Quality of Opponents – Of the five wins the Pacers have this season, only one (Boston) was against a winning team. The other four teams have a combined 10-40 record.  The first three-game losing streak came against teams with a combined 28-12 record, so that’s not alarming.  The current one includes an embarrassing loss to the then 1-9 Knicks at Conseco, and Sunday’s blowout loss to Charlotte, ending the BobKitties seven game losing streak.
  • Lost Quarters – Last season, the Pacers scored 20 points or fewer in only 60 of the 328 regulation quarters they played, or about 18%. This season, they’ve scored 20 or less in 13 of their 44 quarters, or about 30%. Here’s are some of the most damaging quarters:

Game 1 @ Atlanta – Entered the fourth trailing by 1, get outscored 25-15 and lost by 11.

Game  2 vs. Miami – A 16-point first quarter puts the Pacers down 12 entering the second. A strong second quarter leaves the Pacers down two at the half, but a matching 16-point third gives Miami a 16-point lead, and they cruise to a 13-point win.

Game 3 vs. Denver – Outscored 30-13 in the first quarter of what turns out to be an 18-point loss.

Game 8 @ New Jersey – The Pacers keep New Jersey in the game with a dreadful 13-point third quarter. Only the Nets inherent incompetence keeps them from capitalizing, as the winless host only scores 14 for the quarter.

Game 9 vs. New York – The Pacers post twin 17-point quarters in the third and fourth, allowing a 15-point halftime lead to morph into a 7-point loss to a 1-9 team on the Pacers’ home floor.

Game 10 vs. Cleveland – The Pacers are outscored 28-13 in the fourth, turning a 5-point lead into a 10-point loss.

  • Clang – The Pacers currently rank 24th in the league at eFG% at .476.  Their 3-point shooting has been an abysmal .303 (26th), while hoisting almost 20 per night. They have shot below 33% from beyond the arc 9 times this year, including five times below 25%. Last season, they only had six games all year where they failed to eclipse the 1-in-4 standard.
  • Offensive Impotence - The Pacers currently rank 25th in Offensive Efficiency, scoring a scant 101.9 points per 100 possessions.  This would represent the lowest offensive output for the Pacers since 1984 (that team won 26 games).  It’s worse even than Rick Carlisle’s final year, when the team finished dead last in Offense.  They’ve been held under 1 point per possession in four of their 11 games, compared to only 12 of their 82 games last season.
  • Worrisome Four Factors numbers – Even during their winning streak, they were not a statistically strong team. Dean Oliver’s Four Factors of Winning focus on Shooting, Turnovers, Rebounding, and Free Throws. There is a set for Offense and a set for Defense. If you combine the Pacers rankings in all of the factors, you’ll see that the Pacers are a below average offensive team and an average defensive team.  This was true even during the winning streak.  Historically, teams performing at the Pacers’ level will be anchored to the 36-win level, plus or minus five games. Given that their offense is trending downward, the Pacers are very much in danger of underperforming the historical win average.

I’m sure you’ll notice that the focus above is primarily offense. That’s because it’s the offense (or lack thereof) that is going to kill this team’s playoff chances this year. I realize that all the cool kids focus on defense, and yes, the defense has had it’s hiccups, but overall it’s fine. However, there are two ends to the court, and they’re pretty much equally important. More to the point, an incompetent offense puts the team’s defense at a huge disadvantage.

Defensively, the Pacers need to maintain their FG defense, which sits third best in the league at .471. They need to improve on their DefRB%, which is a middling .737, good for 15th out of 30 in the league. However, it will be very hard to do these things  if the opponent continues to get offensive opportunities off of Pacer missed shots and turnovers.

More importantly, if the Pacers remain in the bottom third 0f both offensive eFG% and Offensive Efficiency, their chances of contending for a playoff spot will be greatly damaged.  Since 1980, slight fewer than 1 in 4 teams in the bottom third for eFG% managed to meet or beat .500. The teams in this grouping averaged only 31 wins, and 146 of 254 won the equivalent of 30 or fewer games. Fewer than 1 in 5 teams finishing in the bottom third for Offensive Efficiency were at or above .500. This group averaged only 30 wins, and 123 of 255 won the equivalent of 30 or fewer games.

At some point in time, the Pacers are going to have to stop bringing knives to these gunfights. If they do it again tonight, it’s going to get real ugly real quick.

The Raptors, on the other hand, have no problems whatsoever offensively. They bring a league best 114.7 Offensive Efficiency into tonight’s game, along with an eFG% of .521. Unfortunately for them, they also bring a league worst 116.4 Defensive Efficiency. This largely explains their 6-8 record.

The question is whether the Pacers offense is even capable of taking advantage of Toronto’s porous defense. If you find yourself watching the Pacers at the offensive end and screaming “Somebody move!”, it’s not going to be a promising outcome for the good guys. Put simply, the defense will do well to keep the Raptors at or below their average of 106 points tonight. If the offense doesn’t make a showing, it will be over quickly.

Chris Bosh is putting up MVP numbers, averaging 26 & 12, which drives a PER of just over 30. The #1 pick from the 2006 draft, Andrea Bargnani, has emerged as a solid scorer, posting just under 18 per night.  It’s the presence of these two agile bigs that has prompted Jim O’Brien to replace Roy Hibbert in the line up with Jeff Foster. Bargnani shoots almost 42% for treys, and takes just about a third of his 14 shots per night from there.

Big name free agent acquisition Hedo Turkoglu has been lackluster thus far this season, posting a slightly below average PER of 14.5. Former Pacer Jarrett Jack has struggled mightily, shooting only 37%, and Rasho Nesterovic has only been used sparingly.

Items of Note: Foster and Murphy are expected to join Ford, Rush, and Granger in tonight’s starting lineup…If you’re looking for a lot of Roy, consider this quote from O’Brien: “We can’t play Roy much unless they play Amir Johnson or (Rasho) Nesterovic,” O’Brien said. “We’ll start Jeff at center because we’re quicker and able to guard their pick-and-rolls.”…Watch Danny away from the ball. If he’s standing around (which he’s prone to do), then the entire offense stagnates around him…Pay close attention to times when Murphy and Hansbrough are on the floor together.  O’Brien likes the pairing, so if the Pacers struggle at those times, it could be cause for concern for the balance of the year.

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