Then things got increasingly sloppy and the increasingly bad play of Roy Hibbert (2 points on 1-for-10 shooting and 0-for-0 from the line, 3 rebounds and 3 turnovers in 24 minutes) started to make it look like the Pacers would lose. It just started to feel like Indy had blown too many opportunities to put away a team that wasn’t playing well. Someone was going to have to win this one, and the Pacers looked just as uninterested in doing so as the Hornets.

As it so often does, it came down to the end.

Neither team executed beautifully throughout the final two minutes, but each team made some big plays. In the video below, I’ve done a breakdown of the final six possessions, highlighting both the good and the bad points for the Pacers.

Here’s a complementary written breakdown from Tim Donahue on the pick-and-pop from CP3 and David West that put New Orleans up by 1 with 3 seconds to play.

The Hornets run that play better than anyone else in the league, and Paul and West are the best pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop combination in the game. They executed it perfectly.

Foster was staying in the lane, and West came all the way out the three-point line to set the pick. Ford tried to go under, but West actually hopped a little to his right and caught Ford — hanging him up for a second. It was an illegal screen, but the type that never gets called. (Watch a replay of Foster sliding to his right to try to set a screen for Danny on the following play.)

Paul, meanwhile slides at an angle towards the elbow, creating enough space so to make it hard to cover both players. After Ford gets disengaged from West, he frantically tries to recover, and then — and this makes the play — Paul pump fakes a shot. The pump fake does two crucial things.

First, it gets Ford in the air and moving between Paul and the basket, which opens up a pristine passing lane to get the ball back to West. Second, it gets Foster to take one step up to challenge the shot — a half-jump that delays his recovery to West just enough to make sure West doesn’t have to rush it.

Beautiful work by the best in the business at it.

The other big thing was what New Orleans did with the other three guys. They got them completely out of the play. The wings — Jarrett Jack and Marco Belinelli both stood on the the sideline outside of the three-point arc, and Okafor actually set up out of bounds on the baseline. Jack and Belinelli drifted waiting for the pass, and Okafor came in bounds directly under the basket and started pushing Posey out to get rebounding position.

It was set up so that any help besides from any of the three defenders not involved in the pick-and-roll defense would have opened up a guy for a good look at the basket — leaving Ford and Foster on an island of sorts.

I criticize the Pacers for this play a little bit in the video, but Tim’s take is definitely more nuanced. Ultimately, this play is a lot like the Andrew Bogut tip-in game-winner: really good execution. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap. (Still, TJ letting himself get man-handled that badly can’t be considered good work.)

Related posts:

1. Breaking Down Andrew Bogut’s Tip-In
2. Game #12 Recap – Too Little, Too Late
3. Pacers Weekend Recap: Breaking the Losing Streak and Getting Embarrassed

Fortunately, does not apply to the Toronto Raptors.

It’s tough to know what you’re going to see when you play the Toronto Raptors. They are only 8-12 on the year but have beaten Eastern Conference contenders Orlando and Boston as well as Oklahoma City. They are by no means good, but they can apparently sneak up on people and steal some wins.

A lot of this inconsistency is probably due to their youth.

The Raptors start four players 25 or younger, and the 29-year-old Jose Calderon and the 28-year-old Leandro Barbosa are the rotation’s elder statesmen. Two of these youngsters in particular are probably feeling really good today.

“Power” forward Amir Johnson probably had the best game of his six-year NBA career yesterday, scoring 22 points on 10-for-14 shooting to go along with 16 boards (8 offensive), 3 steals and 2 blocks. The 23-year-old has a loooong way to go to live up to the five-year, $34 million contract he signed to remain a Raptor last summer, but this a good start. Hopefully for Indiana it doesn’t continue.

Another guy many Indiana fans hope will never become a high-quality player in this league is combo-guard Jerryd Bayless. Well, I don’t think anyone specifically wants him to have a bad career — they just don’t want a controversial personnel decision to come back to bite the team. Bayless was originally drafted by the Pacers in 2008 but traded just minutes later (along with Ike Diogu) for Brandon Rush, Jarrett Jack and Josh McRoberts. Thus far, it’s hard to argue that Bayless has been so good that it could counteract the contributions that Jack, Rush and McRoberts have made. Then again, Bayless never really got a chance to prove himself in Portland and has definitely shown some flashes of scoring brilliance in his young career. (And at 22-years-old, he is very young compared to the 25-year-old Rush.)

But Bayless has played more than 20 minutes in each of his last three games in Toronto (which coincidentally just traded Jarrett Jack for him right before Thanksgiving), shooting 16-for-31 (51.6%) while averaging 15.3 points, 4.7 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 4.0 free-throw attempts and only 1.3 turnovers per game during this stretch.

Jerryd Bayless has faced the Pacers in the past, but this will be the first time that Pacers fans can go into the game expecting to get an extended look at the kid their GM passed on.

Let’s hope he, and the whole Raptors team really, has an off night.

(This doesn’t fit into the Young Raps on the Prowl narrative, but it’s also important to note that Roy Hibbert really has nobody to guard in this game. Andrea Bargnani is their “center” and all he does is shoot. And Amir is not a good match-up for Roy due to his athleticism and quickness. Will be an issue — but shouldn’t be a problem.)

Pacers vs Raptors By the Numbers

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2. Game #12 Preview – Our Resistable Force Meets Their Movable Object
3. Game Recap #37: Pacers Beat the Best National Basketball Association Team in Canada

Sam Holako of Raptors Republic, however, has a much more nuanced take of the team and has been covering it all year. And luckily for us, he was nice enough to stop by to share his dino wisdom. Below is a Q&A we did. Also, I returned the favor and answered a few questions on the Pacers generally and tonight’s game specifically for him as well. So be sure to stop by Raptors Republic and check out more from me and Sam over there.

Jared: An underrated story of late is that your Raptors are 15-5 since December 18, making it one of the most successful teams in the whole league over the past six weeks. What has been working so well over the last 20 games that wasn’t during the first 28?

Sam Holako: A few key things happened during this stretch:

1. Bargnani has really stepped up his play. He is rebounding better and scoring more efficiently, but most of all, his defense in the post has been shockingly good from where it was — just ask Tim Duncan and Dwight Howard.
2. Jose Calderon lost his starting role due to injury, but is proving to be far more effective coming off the bench since he has returned. He also is a team player and will do whatever it takes to win, so the move to the bench doesn’t bruise his ego as much as it would others.
3. When the Raptors go to their bench, there is real production. Marco Belinelli and Sonny Weems are very aggressive on offense, Antoine Wright has been playing great defense at the 2/3, and Amir Johnson is a beast.

Jared: Hedo had a big game last week against the Knicks, dropping 26 points and 11 rebounds. And more importantly (to me anyway) is that he gave us the best postgame quote for the year with “Ball.” I think it’s safe to say that the Turkoglu acquisition wasn’t looking great at the beginning of the year. How about now?

Sam Holako: It’s still not looking great, but it isn’t ALL his fault. Hedo is the kind of player who needs the ball to be effective, and Triano is finding it hard to effectively use Hedo in a rotation where the point guards (Jarrett Jack and Calderon) also need it in their hands. His postgame quote was not only epic, but indicative of what it will take for him to get back to the levels he played at with the Magic. He isn’t helping the cause by not attempting to adapt to a new team/concept/style of play. Doesn’t look like a great signing, all things considered.

Jared: Amir Johnson looked very good the other night and that alley-oop was ridiculous. Discuss.

Sam Holako: Amir Johnson is a favorite of everyone. He’s one of those blue-collar guys who gets in the game and battles like a warrior. He is very aggressive, very athletic, reasonably consistent and gets after it. His only knock is that he gets something like 6.8 fouls per 36 minutes, which affects his minutes depending on how quickly he picks them up. When he plays in control, like he did Sunday against the Pacers (1 foul in 20 minutes of play), the guy is playing himself into a full mid-level contract at the end of the year.

Jared: Pacer fans aren’t going to get to see DeMar DeRozan in either game, but he has been playing pretty well. What type of player do you expect him to be around this time next year? Also, I have him winning the Dunk Contest. Is that correct?

Sam Holako: DeRozan is an interesting kid. We haven’t had an athlete like him since Vince Carter, but he is very raw. His jumper has improved significantly since the start of the year, but his career will be made on how aggressively he attacks the rim off the dribble. The guy is a gym rat and is always practicing, so it will come — just a matter of when. Truthfully, I see him as a poor man’s Vince Carter; he isn’t quite as explosive, but he will be a solid starting shooting guard in the league. The Dunk Contest is just a formality to make Nate Robinson feel important. DeRozan takes it.

Jared: Lastly, how depressing is it that Bosh is definitely leaving this Summer? Or are you still holding out some hope?

Sam Holako: I have always contended that he was going to resign with the Raptors unless they were just God-awful. With the Raptors trailing the Celtics by only 3 games in the division (and sitting in 5th place in the East), things are looking up. With the CBA up at the end of next season, he can’t afford to leave the $30 million or so on the table if he resigns with another team. The only way I thought he wouldn’t be a Raptor come next season is if in fact he does have a pact with Wade/LeBron to play together, in which case, Toronto wouldn’t be the destination for that grouping of talent with our cap situation and all. At the end of the day, the Raptors are HIS team, and Toronto HIS city; if he leaves to join Wade/LeBron, he loses that.

Related posts:

1. Game Recap #37: Pacers Beat the Best National Basketball Association Team in Canada
2. Game #12 Preview – Our Resistable Force Meets Their Movable Object
3. Toronto Introduces Jarrett Jack

Pacers 105 – Raptors 101

With a come-from-a-long-way-behind 105-101 win over the Raptors at Conseco this evening, the Pacers moved to 3-3 in 2010.

Danny Granger scored 23 on 9 of 19 shooting. Troy Murphy had another double-double with 20 points and 16 rebounds. And guards Earl Watson and AJ Price combined for 27 points and 10 assists as Indiana used the same starting line-up for the third game in a row (Murphy, Granger, Hibbert, Watson and Head).

Early on, the Pacers seemed to be following a well-learned script, falling down 12-5 in the first 6:54, at which point Roy Hibbert and Luther Head both had two fouls and were pulled. Hibbert struggled to react to the quicker, smaller Raptor bigs in his short time out there, and only returned to the court for a brief 2-minute stretch in the second quarter before heading to the bench for good.

In his place, back-up center Solomon Jones was effective during his time in the game (tallying 10 points and 9 boards in 17 minutes), while sharing the big man duties with Troy Murphy, Tyler Hansbrough (4 points/7 rebounds) and Danny, who saw extended minutes at the power forward spot. In more good news, Hansbrough seems to have fully recovered from his inner ear infection, falling or stumbling awkwardly no more often than usual.

Within 2 minutes of Hibbert’s departure, the Raptor lead was 8, which is where it eventually ended the 1st period. It seemed that Pacers announcer Chris Denari had already deployed his “eerily similar to other starts” line at least three times by this point, while Quinn Buckner was in full excuse mode (“what happened there was … and you can’t help it … but he’ll get better at that as he gets more used to …”). The Raptors were shooting above 50%, the Pacers around 35% and things were not looking good. The 3-balls were flying, but they weren’t falling, except for off the hands of Murphy, who had 12 of the Pacers’ first 14 points by hitting 4 of his first 5 shots from behind the arc.

Denari was right — this was eerily similar to most of the last dozen broadcasts.

The Pacers showed a little life in the final few minutes of the 1st, but just 4 minutes into the 2nd quarter, the Pacers were down 47-26, and TV viewers were preparing to switch from the game to The Bachelor: On the Wings of Love all across the great state of Indiana — or, at least across the portion of the state where cable providers actually carry Fox Sports Indiana. Just then, Granger was called for half of a double-technical along with back-up Toronto SG Sonny Weems. Seemingly incensed at being equated with Sonny Weems in any fashion, Granger went on a tear and scored 8 of the Pacers next 10 points.

Still, Indy was trailing by 23 with 4:20 left in the first half, but the Pacers finally seemed to pick up some of Granger’s long-awaited focus and went on a 16-6 run to close out the 2nd period down 13 (65-52). During that run, both Jarrett Jack and Chris Bosh seemed to have difficulties with a D-League replacement official, as Jack reportedly asked him if it was his first time refereeing an NBA game after being whistled for his third personal.

With this run, the Pacers worked their own FG% up to a semi-respectable 42%, but Toronto was still shooting 53% at the half.  “They got out in transition, and we weren’t making them work in the half-court,” AJ Price told Mark Boyle’s post-game radio crowd. Austin Croshere described the Pacers’ first half pick-and-roll defense as “porous at best.”

The Pacers managed to bear down on defense in the 3rd period, however, holding the Raptors to just 19 points (after allowing 35 and 30 in the 2nd and 1st, respectively), while positive contributions from Hansbrough, Solomon and Granger helped the Pacers rack up 26 in the quarter.

There were no great runs, just a gradual attrition, as Indiana slowly pecked away at Toronto’s lead.

During one memorable sequence around the 8-minute mark of the 3rd, Earl Watson stole the ball from Jack as he crossed the timeline and broke for an easy lay-up. On the very next play, Earl drew a charge on Jack, who was again trying — and failing — to bring the ball across the line. Watson then dished an assist to Solomon, and stole the ball again when Jack’s replacement attempted to bring the ball up-court.

The Raptors lead was down to 6 at that point and, by the end of the period, Toronto was holding onto a tenuous 84-78 advantage. All told, the Raptors hit only four field goals in the 3rd.

The Pacers push to take the lead took the first 7 minutes of the 4th period — but the tortoise would eventually win this race.

Indiana outscored Toronto 17-8, as Mike Dunleavy scored seven of his 15 in that run. At 92-92, before a Watson three-ball gave the Pacers the lead, Chris Denari, on the FSI broadcast, remarked that this was the first time this year he could remember seeing Dunleavy, Murphy and Granger in the game together.

It seemed to work well because Toronto never regained the lead.

Indiana held an advantage between 2 and 5 points for the remainder of the game as all five Pacers on the floor — Granger, Price, Watson, Murphy and Dunleavy — scored in the last five minutes.

Game Notes:

• Since his Thanksgiving return, Dunleavy has sometimes been a force on the floor and sometimes looked weak and ineffectual. Tonight, he sometimes seemed to be a force on the floor, and sometimes looked weak and ineffectual. When he scored 39 points in a couple of games in the ’07-08 season, he sometimes seemed to be a force on the floor, and sometimes looked weak and ineffectual. Tonight he had 15 points on 5-10 shooting, with 5 boards. Maybe, ultimately, it doesn’t matter what he looks like.

• Troy Murphy’s 20 point, 16 rebound, plus-11 effort in the win marks the first time in weeks that he has not been roundly vilified on Pacers fan boards during a game — whether he played or not. He has now played in five of the Pacers’ 12 wins and 21 of the team’s 25 losses. He is the leading rebounder on the team and the second leading scorer. And he has the team’s worst season plus/minus at -228.

Don’t Call It a Comeback (OK, Do): By The Numbers

Post-Game Essentials: Box Score | PM Game Flow | Play-By-Play | Shot Chart | Behind the Box Score | Indy Star Recap | Cornrows Recap | AP Recap | Pacer’s Digest Post Game

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   Actual Observations and Related, Possibly Stupid Conjectures
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Well, rest assured, sports fan. Jarret Jack is still very much alive and well up in Toronto. (Although a lot of Raptors fans would argue he’s not doing “well” at all.)

And only just a few minutes ago, he decided to do some in-game multi-tasking while waiting for the quarter to wind down. Rather than just dribble down the clock until it was time to take the last shot per usual, he figured that he may as well use that dead time to instead tighten up his laces. (via @tasmelas)

Some people might question his timing but I, for one, commend the man. Really, he’s quite the role model here. An untied lace is very dangerous. Especially on an escalator. Kids need to learn to fear and respect the escalator. There’s not a year that goes by — not a year — that I don’t read about some escalator accident that could have been avoided.

UPDATE: Here’s a better video of the incident. (via CavsFanatic)

Related posts:

1. It’s Official: Jarrett Jack Is Headed to Toronto
2. Toronto Introduces Jarrett Jack
3. The Summer Losses: Jarrett Jack

I believe the exact words I used were “real ugly, real quick.” Regrettably, I understated the issue.  After O’Brien made a lineup change specifically designed to address their pick and roll defense issues, the Pacers opened the game by — wait for it — being torched twice on successive pick and rolls. Such was the start to a 1st half that had Toronto and Indiana announcers scrambling to see what the Raps’ record was for most points scored in the first half. (It’s 79.) I could go into the details, but do you really want re-live a half where the Pacers’ biggest (only) accomplishment was to prevent the Raps from setting that record (by holding them to 74)?

Suffice it to say that the Pacers had dug themselves a 21-point hole by allowing Toronto to shoot a ridiculous .695 eFG%, while putting up an anemic .432 themselves against the worst defense in the league. (Well, excluding the one that played for the Pacers in the first half.)

The game would have been a complete disaster if not for a guest appearance by the 2008-2009 version of Danny Granger in the second half. After going three for 12 in the first half, Danny announced his arrival with back-to-back three’s to open the third quarter.  From there, he proceeded to put together a 22-point half and finish with team highs in points (36), rebounds (9), and assists (5). It was, unfortunately, too little too late, as the Pacers were outscored 26-20 after they cut the deficit to five with 33 seconds left in the third.

If the Celtic game was an illustration of what might be, then the last three games show how far this team really is from that ideal. The team still largely plays as if they just met when they got to the arena, and the offense is putrid unless Danny is hitting on all cylinders. Last year’s team brought a puncher’s chance into virtually every game with their shooting, but this year’s team has lacked any kind of consistent firepower. The defense, while improved, is still not capable of dealing with a team with strong ball movement and a lot of shooters like Toronto. The Raptors are, after all, the top offensive team in the league.

Where this goes from here is difficult to tell. The confusion will likely remain as Indiana tries to work Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster back into the rotation.  Hopefully, Mike Dunleavy’s return will further complicate matters next week.  Meanwhile, the Pacers continue a replay of last season’s early wasted opportunities. In the current four-game losing streak, they’ve dropped games to two bad teams (New York and Charlotte) and one exceedingly mediocre team (Toronto). They are 3-4 at home. They cannot afford to dig the same hole they did last year in November and December, particularly since they’ve had an unbelievably favorable schedule to this point.

In any case, here are some other observations on a relatively depressing evening:

• Jeff Foster was finally Jeff Foster in the second half tonight. He didn’t have a great box score, but he brought good defense on Bosh and some much needed energy. Also, it was nice to see a big man who could actually execute in the high post. If you watch Foster’s game, he gives an excellent illustration of how a non-scorer can actually help the offense. The Pacers last real chance to may have come when they failed to convert on two vintage Foster offensive rebounds on the same possession early in the fourth.

• Roy Hibbert scored 8 points in 11 first half minutes, but did not see action in the second. Much will be made of this in some quarters, but it will be much ado about nothing. While it was very nice to see two well-executed pick and rolls between Roy and Earl Watson, his numbers look more impressive than they really were, and the team was -12 with him on the floor. The Pacers needed to scramble to get back into the game, and Solomon Jones was given a shot. When the team played well with Solo in, it was pretty clear that Roy was going to be done for the night. He’ll be back in the starting lineup tomorrow against the Clippers.

• Troy Murphy finally hit a couple of threes in the fourth quarter, but there’s a whole lot that worries me about Troy’s game at this point. He had two big rebounds (one offensive, one defensive) simply bounce off of his hands down the stretch. He’s never been a fantastic player, and he had decent numbers (11 & 8), but they seem more like empty calories than ever before. In his ESPN chat today, Chad Ford said, “…And I think the Pacers have to start thinking about dumping Troy Murphy. He’s unhappy sharing minutes with Hansbrough and has been sulking a bit. Given that Murphy does two things (rebound and shoot threes) that could help a myriad of playoff teams, I think the Pacers could get something decent in return.” Now, I don’t see any real evidence of Troy sulking, but I have no inside access, either. You have to wonder what, if any, source Ford has for this info. If the Pacers could find a taker for Troy willing to send back expiring contracts, the much needed cap relief would make it awfully tempting to pull the trigger and move forward with the younger bigs (Hibbert, Hansbrough, and Solo).

• Buckaroo Banzai (Tyler Hansbrough, for the uncouth and unitiated) had another nice showing.  The final line shows 10 points, 4 boards, and a block in 15 minutes. The highlight play was a rebound and stuff that cut the deficit to 97-92 late in the third, but that was not his most impressive moment. In the first half, he had two very nice post moves, and the game seems to be slowing down for him. Given the fact that the guy missed all of training camp and preseason, you have to be pleased with his first eight games.

• The relationship between T.J. Ford and Jim O’Brien is going to be something to watch closely.  Ford scored 16 on 6 of 10 shooting tonight, but he was lethargic in the first half. More troubling, he got an earful from O’Brien in the 4th for putting no effort into fighting over a screen, which resulted in Jarrett Jack hitting a big three-pointer. O’Brien immediately called for Watson, but there was no stoppage of play that would allow for the substitution. Shortly thereafter, there was an animated conversation between Ford (on the court) and O’Brien (on the sideline). Ford continued to make his point after O’Brien apparently lost interest in the conversation, turning and walking away.

• The former Pacers on the Raptors killed Indiana tonight. Jarrett Jack broke out of a prolonged shooting slump by hitting all seven of his shots, including three from behind the line. He added 6 assists to his 18 points. Though I hate the success was against the Pacers, I always liked JJ, and I’m glad to see him have some. Rasho’s game, on the other hand, rankled. Considering the fact that Nesterovic spent the last half of last season in Indiana doing a stunningly accurate impression of a corpse, imagine my surprise when he hung 12 points and 7 boards on the Pacers in his 16 minutes of play. Now, he did have some quality games for the Pacers early in the season last year, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for the time being. However, if he’s still producing come April, then I’m going to take to heart all of the rumors that he basically mailed in last season because he didn’t want to be in Indy, and consider him a douche bag.

Other items of note: The Pacers bench was outscored by the Raptor’s bench 50-34…After a crappy offensive 1st half, the Pacers scored 39 points in the third, posting an Offensive Rating for the period of over 150 and an eFG% of .708…For the game, the Pacers’ Offensive Rating was 114.3, their second best outing of the year, but the Defensive Rating of 125.5 was the worst of the season…Dahntay Jones scored 12 points off the bench in 27 minutes. The playing time is over 7 minutes below his  season’s average…Brandon Rush (@KCsFinest09) tweeted this afternoon, “Coach is gonna try to kill us today n practice. We got our ass chewed out n film.” For all the good it did.

Related posts:

1. Game #10 Recap: Defense and Danny’s Big Plays Can’t Outweigh a Late Offensive Drought
2. Game #11 Recap: Blown Out by the Bobcats
3. Game #1 Recap: Hawks 120 – Pacers 109
   Actual Observations and Related, Possibly Stupid Conjectures

Jarrett Jack was only in Indy for one year, but he had a large impact. In fact, earlier this summer, Indy Cornrows named Jarrett the second greatest “single-season Pacer” of all time. It’s hard to argue against that claim.

It wasn’t so much that Jack was this transcendent player who fit seamlessly with the team and uplifted the franchise or anything. Far from it. But he was the right fit at the perfect time.

Initially, fans disappointed by the 2008 Draft day trade that sent the Pacers first round pick (the 19-year-old athletic wonder and University of Arizona standout guard Jerryd Bayless) to the Trailblazers for Brandon Rush (who was generally viewed as a potentially solid pro, but a player with a much lower ceiling than Bayless) saw Jarrett Jack as merely a throw-in to that deal. As an NBA point guard, Jack had never set himself apart from even a questionable NBA starter like Steve Blake in Portland, so what great value could he possibly be?

As it turned out he brought exactly that to Indiana: great value.

Less of a traditional point guard and more of an undersized two, Jarrett found himself in a situation suited for him to shine. Mike Dunleavy’s knee injury proved much more serious than initially thought, and less than a month into the season, it was already becoming clear that newly acquired point guard TJ Ford, who joined the roster just days before Jack in the pre-draft trade that shipped Jermaine O’Neal to Toronto, was probably not going to shape up to be the assist machine or consistent shooter that people such as myself believed he would be in Jim O’Brien’s offense. Don’t get me wrong; TJ was adequate, but once it became clear that Dunleavy was facing an uphill batttle to return to action, the back court desperately needed another capable ball-handler who could create some offense.

Enter Jarrett Jack.

Jack is by no means a big-time NBA player. But he is aggressive and has a bulldog fearlessness that can alternately invigorate an offense and frustrate fans — sometimes during the same possession. Along with Jarrett’s tenacity in the open court and his confidence going to the hoop came head-scratching turnovers. Foolish jump passers were frequent and erratic, guarded jump shots came early in the shot clock. But on a team full of tentative ball-handlers and players who preferred shooting step-back threes in space over driving to the hole or getting to the foul line, Jack’s persona provided cojones.

Eventually, those qualities seemed to be what allowed Jarrett to supplant TJ in the starting point guard role. After the team dropped 11 of 13 games from November 21 – December 1 (a losing streak during which TJ shot 41.3% from the floor) it became clear that a change — any change — was needed. Given the personnel available, it’s not like coach O’Brien had a ton of options. In short order, Jack began getting the nod at point. And when TJ began missing games with injury, the point guard spot seemed to be Jack’s position to lose.

But, once again, Jarrett Jack is not really a point guard. So before long, he did lose forfeit the car keys back to TJ. A five-game losing streak in March, however, led to Jack once again taking over the starting role in this ongoing point guard ping pong routine. And neither option was bringing beautiful basketball to the table. But both did have their moments — particularly in the clutch — and it would be hard for anyone aside from Brandon Rush to argue that the most potent lineup that the 08-09 Pacers could put on the court was one that featured both TJ and Jack in the back court, where, depending on your outlook, either (1) they both played point guard at the same time, or (2) neither did.

Looking at the numbers, it would seem that the Pacers have also lost something significant quantitatively. Here is how Jack ranked among all the players on the Pacers roster, with the numbers in parentheses being his totals in each category.

Jarrett Jack in 2008-09

Traditional
PPG – 6th (13.1)
APG – 2nd (4.1)
A/TO – 3rd (1.84)

Advanced*
PER – 8th (13.1)
TS% – 5th (.554)
ORtg – 9th (107)
DRtg – 11th (111)
WS – 5th (4.1)
OWS – 4th (2.3)
DWS – 4th (1.8)

* PER – Player Efficiency Rating | TS% – True Shooting Percentage | ORtg – Offensive Rating | DRtg – Defensive Rating | WS – Win Shares | OWS – Offensive Win Shares | DWS – Defensive Win Shares

The Pacers will certainly miss Jack’s ability to fill in when TJ is in going through one of his funks — whether it lasts for a few minutes or a few weeks. Earl Waston will bring some nice stability to the fold during those times — something that Jack was not really capable of — but he obviously can not bring the same versatility or penetrating ability that Jarrett did.

Still, as a player, Jack’s game has many holes. He can score, but he’s not a scorer. He can run an offense, but he’s not a floor general. He can make plays, but he’s not a play-maker. He can guard people, but he can’t stop anybody. Ultimately, if he is a starter on your team — particularly a starter at point guard — your team is flawed. And as we all know, the Pacers are flawed. While the offseason did (theoretically) address a few of those defensive failings, it did little to replace Jack’s offensive aggression. Dahntay Jones should bring a similar bulldog mentality to the defense, but he just doesn’t have the offensive talent for that to translate to the other end of the floor. And the Pacers other two perimeter acquisitions, Luther Head and Earl Watson, are relatively passive players in comparison to Jarrett.

What Jarrett Jack brought to the team is definitely going to be difficult to replace. And no matter how much you like his game, that reality probably says more about the talent deficiency in the Pacers back court than it does about Jarrett himself.

Up next: Rasho Nesterovic.

Lamar Odom can attest to to Jack’s fiery demeanor.

Related posts:

1. It’s Official: Jarrett Jack Is Headed to Toronto
2. Toronto Introduces Jarrett Jack
3. The Summer Losses: Marquis Daniels

– Mark Twain

Every NBA team has 15 roster spots, and they are allowed to dress 12 players for each game.  What I’m hoping to shine a little light on today is how much of that 12-man depth is regularly used.  How much does it vary from team to team?  How does it relate to a teams’ success?  Within this analysis, I will also show where Jim O’Brien’s Pacers fall.   Does he reach deep into the bench? Is he parsimonious with minutes, or does he spread the wealth around?

To answer these questions, I charted all 1,230 games played during the 2009 NBA season.  Rather than looking at minutes played by specific players, I sorted the players in each game in descending order of minutes played.  This created a “slot” for each player, from 1 to 12 (if all 12 played).  As an example, Danny Granger would be slotted differently each game.  Over the course of the season, he was slotted anywhere from 1 to 8, with “Player 1″ and “Player 2″ being the most common at 22 times each.   This should theoretically allow us to see how a coach “manages” the game, without regard to the individual players.

Is Eight Enough?

Playing an eight-man rotation is relatively common approach in basketball.  Given the fluid nature of the game, it’s desirable to always have five players on the floor who know each other well and provide the stability of familiarity.   Pacer icon Slick Leonard is a proponent of playing an eight-man rotation.

However, the eight-man rotation would be considered a tight rotation by most NBA fans today.  They would tell you that eight is most certainly not enough.  It’s hard to argue with those three ABA banners and 529 career wins with the Pacers,but it’s important to remember that Leonard’s hey-day was 30 years ago.  I looked at two measures to get a sense of how deep today’s NBA coaches regularly reach into their bench.

Exhibit A

The chart above indicates how many games, on average, that NBA teams used each “slot.”  Teams went eight deep over 99% of the time, and nine deep over 92% of the time.  Slot #10 saw the floor in just under 64% of the games.  From this perspective, an eight-man rotation would certainly appear to be “tight.”   Looking at the distribution of minutes by team gives you a different picture.

Exhibit B

League wide, the top 8 slots played 93.5% of all of the minutes played.  The chart above shows that all but one team (San Antonio) used their top 8 men for over 91% of their minutes.   In fact, the top 6 players (on average) played about 80% of the minutes, and only one team (again, San Antonio) used their top 6 for less than 77% of the time.  So, it appears that while most teams play nine or even ten players most nights, the 9th and 10th players generally see only token minutes.

In the Middle of the Road

The 2009 Pacers stand very close to the league average in terms of how Jim O’Brien used his depth.  The top eight players got 93.6% of the Pacers’ minutes, which was 13th in the league and only slightly above the 93.5% league average.  In fact, the chart below shows that the Pacers are almost dead on league averages for both Games Played by Slot:

Exhibit C

As well as the average Minutes per Game by Player Slot:

Exhibit D

While they’re dead on the averages, it is worthwhile checking to see whether that result is purely mathematical, or if the O’Brien’s use of the Pacers’ depth can actually be considered typical.   No Pacer player slot was higher than 12th (out of 30) in Minutes per Game played, and only slot #10 (23rd) was lower than 19th.   Even slot #10 did not have a material variance, as the Pacers were at 6.0 Minutes per Game played, and an additional 90 seconds per game would have put them in the top 5 in this category.  It seems fair to me to say that O’Brien’s use of the player was slots was “typical” of the NBA.

Of Chickens and Eggs

So, one of the questions that remains is, “Does this have any effect on wins and losses?”  There are some high level numbers that argue that they do.   If you break the league down, the overall winning percentage for the 10 teams that use their top eight the most is .466, then it goes to .498 for the middle 10, and .537 for the ten teams with the lowest 8-man percentages.  Further, five of the 14 teams with winning records were in the bottom 10 in terms of 8-man percentages.  There were only three winning teams (Atlanta, Houston, and Cleveland) among the ten teams who relied most heavily on their top eight.

However, if you look more deeply at the individual teams, the discussion becomes murkier.  First, teams like the Celtics and the Lakers shared the bottom 10 with two 24-win teams (Minny and Memphis) and two 34-win teams (the Nets and the Bucks).  Second, it’s important to understand just how little variation there is between these teams.  Twenty three (23) of the 30 teams in the NBA are less than 30 seconds per player per game above or below the league average, meaning the extremes are within one minute per player per game of each other.    More to the point, is any reasonable person going to believe that the difference between the 62-win Boston Celtics and the 19-win LA Clippers was even vaguely influenced by the fact that Boston spread less than 7 minutes a game over slots 9 through 12?

The Pacers, Pace, and the Perfect 10

There has been much talk in the preseason about Jim O’Brien wanting to use a 10-man rotation this year, with the idea of maintaining pressure on the opponent both offensively and defensively.  As noted above, O’Brien played basically a 9-man rotation last year.  Going through his coaching history shows that 2009 was not an anomaly.  He typically used nine players in about 93% of his teams’ games, and Player # 9  normally averaged 9-10 minutes per appearance.   Going to a 10-man rotation will be something more of a stretch.

O’Brien has definitely used the 10th player more liberally in Indianapolis than he has in his previous stops, but the numbers still fall well short of a minimum 10-minute per game rotation as defined by Rick Barry and Jordan Cohn in their Pro Basketball Bible series of days gone by.  The truth is that no one in the NBA used a 10-man rotation last season according to the Barry & Cohn rules.  San Antonio came closest, playing employee #10 in 71 games for about 8.7 minutes per appearance.  Looking back at some recent Pacer history (1994-present) indicates that only Bird’s 1998 and 1999 Pacer teams used a bona fide 10-man rotation.  (The 2000 Finals team was a very solid 9-man rotation.)  While playing a steady 10-man rotation may be a goal, history says that it’s probably unlikely to actually happen.

Which brings us to a discussion of pace vs. rotations.  It seems relatively intuitive that the faster pace, the deeper you’ll need to reach into your bench.  However, this hasn’t necessarily been true in practice, either here or throughout the league.  The Pacers, had the third fastest pace last season at 96.5, but still ran an 8-man rotation that was the 13th most heavily used, and 16 teams gave more minutes to their 9th and 10th player slots than the Pacers did.  It gets even more out of whack when you look at the two teams that played “faster” than the Pacers:  Golden State and New York.    These two teams used their 8-man rotations for 95.2% (5th) and 97.1% (1st) of their minutes respectively.  Of course, those two teams combined to win only 61 of their 164 games, so they might not be great role models.

In fact, if you look at the top 10 teams by Pace (or possessions per game), you see a pretty clear correlation between having a lower usage of your top eight players and having more wins.   Six of the teams were in the top 13 for 8man percentages, including the Pacers.  All had losing records except for Chicago, who was only .500.  Meanwhile, four teams were 17th or lower in the 8man, and they all won between 46 and 65 games.  However, it’s important to remember that correlation is not the same as causation.

First, it’s important to note the differences in pace throughout the league are relatively immaterial.  The Pacers were less than 5 possessions per game above the league average, and less than 10 possessions per game more than the slowest team, Portland.  That’s about 5 and 10%, respectively.  Also, it’s important to note that the 2009 Pacers, while third in the league, were not a historically fast team.  Basketball-Reference.com lists the Pace Factors for NBA teams going back to 1974.  In that sample, there have been 923 teams, and 415 (45%) of them were faster than Jim O’Brien’s 2009 Pacers.  The problem is that only 10 of them have been since 2000.  In my opinion, this creates a problem of perception, as opposed to reality.  That, however, is a can o’ worms that needs to be addressed separately and in more detail.  Pace is something I don’t consider to be a huge factor, but others probably will.  I can’t prove anything definitively to myself or anyone else at the moment, so we’ll come back to that another time.

What can be established more clearly (and has been in Exhibit B above) is the insignificance of the difference between the 8man percentages.  The Pacers, at 13th, allotted 93.6% of their total minutes to the top eight slots.  The Lakers, at 27th, allotted 91.9%.  The total difference due to the percentages is 345 minutes.  Over 82 games, that’s only 4.2 minutes per night, or about 31 seconds per player (in the top eight) per night.

Furthermore, there is an overriding factor that drives the minute distribution, and that is the nature of the individual game.  Specifically, how close is the contest?

Exhibit E

This chart shows the minute distribution by grouping broken out into three “margin groupings.”  The far right hand group shows the actual distribution of all NBA games.  As you can see, the Top Eight follows the normal distribution pretty closely.  However, slots 9 & 10 begin to see a disproportionate amount of their minutes in Double Digit games, and 11 and 12 appear to be relegated almost exclusively to garbage time.

Taking this into account is very important when considering the Pacers because they were 1st the NBA in “Close & OT” (4 points or less or overtime) games with 30, and they were dead last in “Double Digit” games with 24.  Further, they were outliers in both.  The league average for “Close & OT” games  was 18.5 games, and no other team had more than 27.  In fact, only three teams (Indiana, San Antonio 27, and Detroit 26) had more than 23.  The league average for “Double Digit” games was 38.5 games, and only one team besides the Pacers had fewer than 30 (Detroit 28).  Going back to our earlier discussion of the 10 “fastest teams” and using this information indicates that both Phoenix and Denver played tighter rotations than O’Brien’s Pacers, but ended up with lower 8man percentages by virtue of playing in fewer close games and more blowouts.  The Pacers rotation was very similar to the Lakers most games, but the Lakers had a more liberal rotation in blowouts, and also were involved in 18 more of them than Indiana.

Exhibits F & G

These aren’t perfect representations of how much “garbage” time each team had, but they are strong directional indicators.

Of Eggs and Chickens and the Price of Tea in China

So, now comes the circular argument about whether the Pacers played a tighter rotation than they might have otherwise because of all the close games, or were they in a lot of close games because they played a tighter rotation.  There’s probably a little of both, but in my opinion, it would lean more towards the former than the latter.  Looking at the Pacers’ 11-19 record also makes you wonder if there were some slight changes that could have been made to make that better.  Perhaps reaching a little deeper would have resulted in more wins in those close games.  It’s a compelling argument, particularly if you believe the pace had an adverse effect on the Pacers at the end of games.

There are two pieces of data that would not support such a position.  First, Indiana was 3-11 in these “Close” games prior to January 1st of this year, 8-8 after.  Also, the Pacers rotations after the first of the year tended to be tighter in close wins (about 97% of the minutes for the top eight) than in close losses (about 94%).  The simplest explanation for the improvement is that the Pacers just got better at finishing games.  This would be encouraging news, if it weren’t for the fact that the player who made the most dramatic improvement in close games after the first of the year was Jarrett Jack.

Ultimately, the game is always going to come down to talent.  All coaches will have players they trust, and players they don’t.  The better teams most often have more players to trust.  There’s a tendency to exaggerate the influence that a coach can have on the game, particularly when it comes to rotations.  Or, perhaps more accurately, there’s a tendency to exaggerate how differently each coach will behave when it comes to rotations.  With a couple of notable outliers (the Knicks and the Spurs), most NBA coaches distribute their minutes in pretty similar ways.  Almost all will rely on their top eight players, using a 9th player for short rests and foul issues, and generally allotting garbage time to the rest of the rosters.  Who exactly should fill those top eight roles, or the 9th, or 10th, etc. is a debate for another time.

Related posts:

1. The Lamp Post: Third Quarter of Death
2. One More Year for O’Brien – Pacers Extend the Coach’s Contract Through 2010-11 Season

Indiana entered the summer of 2009 as a team needing to change and improve, but they had very few options to do so. They had the 13th and 52nd picks in a notoriously weak draft. They had a budget of around $9 million to fill out the roster. They had to figure out what to do with restricted free agents Jarrett Jack and Josh McRoberts.

With all of the exciting draft prospects gone by the time the Pacers picked, and all of the attractive free agents out of their price range, the Pacers options appeared to be a choice between “Meh” and “Bored, Now.” Watching Larry Bird and David Morway handle the draft and free agency this summer brought 30-year-old flashbacks of my mom shopping at Zayre’s for my school clothes. They have eschewed the trendier locales and the pricier aisles, instead heading straight to the clearance section — a strategy that seems destined to draw snickers from the cooler, richer kids and an exasperated “Awwww, mom!” from Pacer fans.

It’s hard for Pacer fans to watch that snazzy power forward (Blake Griffin) leaving the store in another team’s shopping basket, just as it was hard last summer when we couldn’t take home that really cool point guard (Derrick Rose). It’s hard for Pacer fans to watch their former nemesis (Detroit) go shopping with daddy’s Gold Card. It’s hard to watch that car they have come to like (Jarrett Jack) be replaced by a cheaper one with more miles (Watson).

It’s hard to get excited about adding a collection of players who scream “serviceable” when “difference-maker” is the most ardent desire. But, again, Pacer fans can find solace in the words of founding father Benjamin Franklin: “He that can have patience, can have what he will.”

Learning to Live “In Between“

In my 43 years of stumbling through life, I’ve come to the conclusion that “in between” is without question the crappiest place to be.  That is where the Pacers and their fans find themselves. They are in between the bad and the good. In between the despair and the hope. In between the fall and the rise.

The problem with “in between” is the uncertainty. It’s the feeling that you could go either way. Doubt grows, first making you antsy, then panicky.

Now, don’t mistake my intentions here. I am not saying “Be patient. Everything will be OK.”  I have no idea whether everything will be OK. I am simply saying that remaining patient will be crucial for everyone as the Pacers try to get from here to there.

In the meantime, Bird and Morway must avoid confusing activity with accomplishment. It could be reasonably argued that the small moves this summer are proof that the front office is doing exactly that, but I would disagree on two counts. First of all, the acquisitions made this summer (Tyler Hansbrough, Dahntay Jones, Earl Watson and Solomon Jones) all bring qualities that were lacking in last year’s squad, primarily in the areas of defense, toughness and athleticism. Given the tenuous position of both their finances and their reputation, the Pacers must continue to put a competitive product on the floor. While none of these players may be difference makers, they may help players like Granger, Rush and Hibbert to be more effective.

Secondly, none of the decisions made this summer will be difficult to “un-make.” Some may question the length of Dahntay Jones’ contract or the size of Earl Watson’s one-year salary. But, as in all assessments, proper perspective is necessary.  To shed some light, I offer the following three financial nuggets:

1. Only the contracts of Hansbrough and Dahntay Jones extend beyond two years (with the final two years of Hansbrough’s being team options)
2. Over the next four years, Dahntay Jones will be paid $5 million less than the Pacers will have paid Jamaal Tinsley to not play a single game in three seasons.
3. The five contracts added this summer (Watson, Jones, Jones, Hansbrough and McRoberts) represent about $27 million in total salary commitments (and that’s including team options). Compare that to the some past decisions that couldn’t be “un-made,” and you’ll see that the price paid to acquire five new players is roughly equal to the Jonathan Bender extension, about $6 million less than the salary burden added in the Murphleavy trade, and about $13 million less than the Tinsley extension.

The moves made by Bird and Morway this summer were designed to address modest, short-term goals without jeopardizing any long-term plans or flexibility. As with all decisions, some will prove wise, and some will prove foolish. But even if they all fail, they won’t cost the franchise as dearly as any one of a half-dozen or more foolish decisions made in the years since the Pacers played in the NBA Finals.

There will be one or two minor deals made yet this summer, the most likely of which will center around the rumored sign-and-trade deal with Boston for Marquis Daniels. It is doubtful, however, that any more acquisitions will cause much more than a ripple in terms of Pacer or NBA news.

A Light at the End of the Tunnel

Patience is crucial for Pacer fans, if for no other reason than to preserve their sanity. It took years to create this quagmire, and it will take years to extricate the team from it. Pacer fans will need to save their energy for next year, when we see the real, foundational moves begin to be made. (Or, at least, I hope will be made.)

There has been a recurring charge over the past few years that Indiana’s leadership, particularly Larry Bird, has the goal of perpetual mediocrity. I’ve always considered this a straw man argument, primarily because I can’t imagine Bird, of all people, embracing mediocrity.

That being said, I think it is valid to be worried that mediocrity may be the final result of Larry Bird’s tenure. Over the past two years, Bird and Morway have demonstrated that they are quite adept at righting the ship, plugging the leaks and navigating the treacherous seas the Pacers blundered into years ago. The bigger question remains whether or not they actually will lead the Pacers back into contention. They have done a wonderful job of bringing in players that the fans can feel good about cheering for, most recently demonstrated by Earl Watson’s charming and engaging performance in his fan chat. This is laudable, but these players will need to be able to win games, too.

Bird and Morway have shown the ability to make sound, conservative decisions when those are appropriate. But do they have a vision? Can they make bold, aggressive moves when the opportunity presents itself? Can they create that opportunity, if it is not forthcoming?

Regrettably, the answers to these questions belong to tomorrow. And tomorrow is not coming today.

So until it does, I leave you with one last quote from The Count of Monte Cristo author Alexandre Dumas Pére: “All human wisdom is summed up in two words: wait and hope.”

Related posts:

1. Earl Watson Live Chat: Today at 4:30 pm
2. Bird: “We’ve Got a Busy Week Ahead of Us”
3. Exiting the Tinsley Bear Trap

Although, after an injury-troubled season in Indy for the 33-year-old, 11-year NBA vet, I’m not sure if anyone is going to be too excited for that party.

In other news, Rasho joins Jarrett Jack as the second Pacer free agent headed to Toronto this summer.

Rasho came over to the Pacers last season with TJ. Now he’s headed back to Canada. (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images)

Related posts:

1. Josh McRoberts Will Return to Indianapolis
2. Josh McRoberts Is Officially Back
3. It’s Official: Jarrett Jack Is Headed to Toronto