Eight Points, Nine Seconds » Josh McRoberts

What About McBob?

Jared Wade — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 01:33:30 +0000

I agree with Josh McRoberts: “McBob” is a stupid nickname.

My main contention with that lame moniker has always been that “Bob” is short for the first name Robert while McRoberts is a last name. And since McRoberts is a surname, and presumably the Irish version of “Roberts,” it makes little sense to shorten it. It’s basically like calling Deron Williams “Billy.” Why would you ever do that?

Even if you felt that all these semantics shouldn’t preclude the use of what you erroneously consider to be a clever nickname, there is no logic in not calling him “McBobs.” McRoberts is plural so the nickname, if you were to use it, would also have to be pluralized. Of course, calling someone “McBobs” is even dumber than calling someone “McBob,” but I don’t see why the distinction would ever be great enough for a person to rationalize the usage of “McBob.”

Lastly, McRoberts is a pretty dope name in and of itself. Combined with a strong, one-syllable male name like Josh, it’s even better. Josh McRoberts. It’s just a good name. And people with top-shelf names don’t need nicknames. Perhaps if you come up with something that is just too good not to use, it can supersede the original strong name. Like, yeah, if I was an acquaintance of Cedric Maxwell’s, I would go out of my way to call him “Cornbread” even though Cedric Maxwell is one of the better names any NBA player has ever had. Whereas if someone tried to get me to refer to Zaza Pachulia as “The Z-Man” instead of by Zaza, I would not be friends with that person. In fact, I might consider framing that man for a crime.

Worse still is a real-world example. Once upon a time, some other dumbass blogger (I forget which, but let’s just blame it on that Rob Mahoney character) launched a campaign to find a nickname for Rodrigue Beaubois. Are you serious? Why you ever call a guy named Rodrigue Beaubois something other than Rodrigue Beaubois? I think the most popular suggestion was “Roddy Buckets.” If you call him Roddy Buckets instead of Rodrigue Beaubois (or, OK, Roddy Beaubois), you ought not be allowed to vote.

The lesson: people are the worst.

No related posts.

OJ Mayo Trade Is ‘Officially Dead’ – Mayo ‘Won’t Be Traded Anywhere’

Jared Wade — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 17:54:34 +0000

According to Ronald Tillery of the Memphis Commercial Appeal, the discussions regarding a deal centered on the Pacers acquiring Grizzlies guard OJ Mayo in a sign-and-trade for free agent forward Josh McRoberts have ceased. Memphis officials have told OJ to stop worrying about what he hears in the media; he isn’t going anywhere.

Proposed Mayo-McRoberts deal is officially dead, source tells the CA. Mayo told this morning that he won’t be traded anywhere.

Mike Wells of the Indianapolis Star has confirmed.

Memphis has decided not to trade guard OJ Mayo, according to sources.

We don’t know why the talks ended. Perhaps Larry Bird pulled out because he has found another deal he likes better that we have yet to hear about? (Jamal Crawford?) Perhaps Bird was playing too much hard ball, demanding that Memphis takes back Brandon Rush. Or, as Tillery mentions, perhaps it had to do with the Grizzlies now seeing Mayo as a little less expendable after some recent injuries have cut into their guard depth.

Mayo decision comes as X[avier] Henry sits out of practice today due to sprained right ankle. S[am] Young also hasnt practiced due to ankle injury

Stuff like that could matter more in a 66-game schedule, so it may indeed be a factor.

As for the former Carmel High School standout, Tillery thinks he is now headed to Los Angeles.

Griz looking at signing McRoberts as UFA but McRoberts likely to take more money, bigger role from Lakers

If this is the case, it begs the question of why McRoberts wasn’t just headed to Los Angeles this whole time. Seems like a better situation and, ya know, everyone wants to go there these days. Guess he thought Memphis — the team or the town — could have been a good fit. Either way, it would be nice to see how he can fit into the Lakers front court.

Six Degrees of Chris Paul

Jared Wade — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 20:08:08 +0000

As Rob Mahoney has shown brilliantly in infographic form, everything can be traced back to Chris Paul. So when you watch David West play in a Pacers jersey or perhaps cheer the Pacers ability to acquire OJ Mayo, make sure to thank David Stern.

* Correction: Changed the title from “Seven Degrees” to “Six Degrees” after realizing I’m dumb.

Paces Use Amnesty Provision to Waive James Posey

Jared Wade — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 19:33:04 +0000

One of the new components of the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement was a one-time “get out of jail free” card for teams. This “amnesty” provision meant that a team could waive one player and not have his salary count against its salary cap any longer. They still have to pay the guy; its just doesn’t matter for cap purposes.

The Pacers have opted to use their amnesty on near-fossilized forward James Posey.

Pose is a pro’s pro: a gamer with a few championship rings and a litany of big playoff performances. But he is on his last legs, has no on-court role with this franchise and makes about $7.6 million more than he is worth. He was a jump-shooting pylon last year. Of the 81 shots he made last year, he was assisted on 74 of them, good for 91.4% of his made field goals. What this illustrates is a stunning lack of ability to create offense for himself and simply a lack of movement. By contrast, Danny Granger — a scorer who is widely maligned for his inability to create his own shots — was only assisted on 51% of his made shots. (For reference, a true creator like Dwyane Wade has spent most of his career with fewer than 30% of his shots coming off of assists.)

Another glaring stat is the 15 free-throw attempts Posey took during his 839 minutes on the court in 2010-11. That’s one free throw attempt every 56 minutes on the court. For reference of how inactive you have to be on offense to have such a poor foul-generating rate, Jeff Foster took a free throw every 20 minutes last season.

Now, I’m not trying to kick the guy why he is down. I’ve always loved James Posey as both a player and a personality in this league. I’m just trying to show Pacers fans that there is no downside here. Posey was not going to get any minutes — certainly not any productive ones — and with a $7.6 million salary, he had no value in the trade market.

What this does do for the team, however, is give them nearly $8 million in cap room.

Perhaps the timing of this means that the Pacers may be about to acquire OJ Mayo from Memphis. The chatter from NBA reporters is that the Grizzlies are receptive to sending back Mayo in a sign-and-trade deal for Josh McRoberts, but Larry Bird wants them to also take Brandon Rush, presumably for salary reasons and because the Pacers roster is getting cluttered on the wing. And Memphis doesn’t really want either Rush or his contract. Or both.

Either way, the decision to amnesty Posey, says Mike Wells of the Indianapolis Star, may mean Bird is softening on the Rush aspect of the deal and is making room to both take on Mayo’s $5.9 million deal and still have flexibility under the cap.

Or it could just mean they were planning to do this all along (Posey hasn’t been in training camp) and this was the day they signed the paperwork. Either way, it gives the Pacers another $8 million to do something if they so choose.

And as we keep finding out, flexibility is fun.

* This post has been updated to correct Posey’s salary. It previously was listed as $6.9 million

The Pacers Are Pursuing OJ Mayo

Jared Wade — Sun, 11 Dec 2011 22:44:50 +0000

As speculated about earlier, the Pacers indeed are reportedly gauging Memphis’ interest in swapping OJ Mayo for Josh McRoberts, who the Pacers would sign and then trade to the Grizzlies. Mark Stein confirmed that discussions are occurring.

Sources also tell ESPN that, as @MikeWellsNBA predicted, Pacers and Grizzlies again engaged Josh McRoberts/OJ Mayo talks. This time S-and-T

Between this and the Jamal Crawford news, it seems that Bird still a few irons in the fire.

But since the Rockets reportedly sent a 4 year/$55 million offer to Grizzlies center Marc Gasol, it would seem that ~~slain rapper~~ Memphis GM Chris Wallace has more important matters to address than trying to acquire Josh McRoberts. Popular opinion among NBA insiders is that the Grizzlies will match that offer sheet if Gasol signs it, but they obviously will be making phone calls and deliberating on the future of one of the franchise’s cornerstones for the immediate future.

So while I wouldn’t expect any immediate news on the possibility of OJ Mayo bringing his two-way talents to the Pacers’ back court rotation, that is not necessarily a sign that it won’t happen. Just stay tuned on the Gasol news and then expect to hear more about Mayo.

UPDATE: Mike Wells is on the case. And he has reported the following.

Another element in the Pacers pursuit of OJ Mayo is that they also want to send Brandon Rush to Memphis w McRoberts, according to a source.

This, he notes, could be a problem for Memphis.

That could be a potential hold up in the deal because the Grizzlies are stockpiled with guards.

If Bird really wants Mayo, I doubt this would be deal-breaker, but it certainly adds a wrinkle.

Pacers Remain Interested in Jamal Crawford, But the Instant Offense Guard May Be Headed to New York

Jared Wade — Sun, 11 Dec 2011 18:24:47 +0000

Anyone who has watched the Pacers extensively over the past few years should know that the team has one flaw that trumps all else: they can’t score. Last season, their defense vacillated between elite and very good. But they could never consistently put points on the board, something highlighted by their inability to score for minutes at a time during crunch time against the Bulls in the playoffs. Had they just been able to get a couple of points here and there, they likely would have made that series much more than the five-game gentleman’s sweep that it became.

Low and behold, it has been no surprise to hear the Pacers name continually linked to Jamal Crawford, by far the best scoring guard in this year’s free agent market. If he were to join the team, he immediately would become the team’s best player at creating his own shot, something that it is currently devoid of.

Unfortunately, it seems as though the former Sixth Man of the Year wants to play for the Knicks. Playing alongside Carmelo, Amaré and Tyson Chandler — not too mention for Mike D’Antoni — sounds like a whole bunch of fun, so this isn’t particularly shocking. Plus, Jamal used to play in NYC once upon a time. The Hawks, which were reportedly once against helping facilitate another team’s deal for Crawford, are now trying to work something out with the Knicks in which they receive some asset back for the departing guard, according to the New York Post.

Still, like with the David West scenario, the Pacers are in the background should that deal not go down.

Here is a two-part report from Indianapolis Star beat writer Mike Wells on the Pacers attempt to acquire Crawford.

Part one.

Agent Andy Miller on Crawford’s situation: “We’ve had interest in Indiana. We’ve made it clear they’re one of the teams we’re considering.”

Part two.

Miller continued: “But there hasn’t seemed to be much movement so we’ve had to look at other opportunities as well.”

Wells is also saying that Larry Bird’s interest in Memphis guard OJ Mayo persists. As you may remember, the Pacers seemingly had a deal for Mayo cemented at the trade deadline last year. All the major media outlets were reporting that a trade centering around Josh McRoberts for Mayo was a done deal.

Then it all fell apart, with differing parties reporting different reasons. This team pulled out or that team wouldn’t include so and so. It was a bunch of he said/he said.

But now it seems like the two teams may be revisiting a similar deal. Memphis wants Josh, who Indiana seemingly has no interest in retaining. And Larry Bird could help them get him with a sign-and-trade deal that brings back Mayo. OJ isn’t quite as gifted as a scorer as Crawford, but he can get his own shot to some degree. At least more so than Danny Granger or Paul George and probably more so than George Hill.

So he makes a good back-up plan.

Which seems to be the theme of this free agent season for the Pacers: back-up plans for back-up plans of back-up plans for back-up plans.

The Pacers’ Recent Past & Near Future: Part 4, How the Other Guys Performed

Kevin Hetrick — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 18:38:47 +0000

(As his first contributions to 8p9s, Kevin Hetrick is digging deep into how the Pacers performed last year and what they can do to improve next season — whenever it begins. Read Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3 of his series here.)

In our last installment, we looked at the “core six” players in terms of how they played last season and how they project to fit in with this franchise long term. Now, it’s time to look at the other players — some of which may not even be on the roster the next time the Pacers pick up a ball for a league-sanctioned game. Whenever that may be.

We will look at the rest of the squad in descending order by minutes played.

(Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference, 82games, BasketballValue, HoopData and ESPN.)

Brandon Rush

Rush will be 26 years old next year and is slated to become a restricted free agent at the end of the season. At best, he should be a fourth guard. Unfortunately for the Pacers he led the team in minutes in 2009-10 and was fourth in minutes last year. He shot an excellent 42% on threes, but was otherwise unspectacular with a PER around 10, which is basically replacement level. Seven of every ten shots he took were from outside 16 feet, resulting in him rarely getting to the foul line. This offsets his three point shooting and results in true shooting (54%) that is almost exactly average (surprise) at 54%.

On the strength of his long-distance accuracy, his eFG% shooting was a little better — but not much, only outpacing the league average SG by 1.5%. Worse still, he is a low-usage player who struggles to create his own shot, making only one unassisted field goal per game in 26 minutes.

He was average at rebounding and protecting the ball, but was 51^st of 55 shooting guards in assist rate and 53^rd in assists at the rim per 40 minutes (per Hoopdata). He’s not an elite defender and tends to lose focus, particularly off the ball and in rotation situations. While not completely indicative of his performance, the Pacers were 5 points per 100 possessions worse on defense last year when Rush was on the floor.

Mike Dunleavy

Since we’re going down the list in order of minutes played, it disconcerting to see Dunleavy behind Rush. Junior had struggles of his own last season, no doubt. But with Rush on the court last year, the Pacers were outscored by 5.98 points per 100 possessions. Meanwhile, during Dunleavy’s 779 minutes at shooting guard, the Pacers outscored opponents by 7.94 per 100.

There certainly isn’t a 14 points-per-100 difference between the two players, but these numbers do reflect how much better the Pacers operated with a starting caliber NBA shooting guard. Dunleavy and Rush had similar usage rates. However, Dunleavy’s TS% and eFG% were 5 points higher than Rush’s, and he was also a much better distributor, recording nearly twice as many assists per 40 minutes with fewer turnovers. Dunleavy grabbed 16.2% of available defensive rebounds, ranking 17th out of the 107 NBA swingmen who played 40 games.

In sum, he plays effectively within both the team offensive and defensive systems, and doesn’t take much off the table. Dunleavy will be 31 next year and is a free agent.

Josh McRoberts

McRoberts was very effective last year as a role player. He didn’t try to do too much and played solidly when opportunities presented themselves. His TS% and eFG% were 6% and 7% higher, respectively, than the average power forward. While only shooting 60 three pointers, he made an impressive 38% while also finishing second on the Pacers in FG% at the rim (among those with at least 50 attempts).

He was a capable defender last year as a league-average rebounder, while averaging 2.71 defensive plays (blocks plus steals) per 40 minutes (compared to a league average of 2.33 for power forwards) against only 4.1 fouls per 40 (average is 4.7). The Pacers were 1 point per 100 better on defense with him on the court, and the combination of these attributes resulted in McRoberts having the lowest defensive rating of all Pacers.

McRoberts’ best skill is probably his passing — something even more valuable on a team bereft of passers. Of 57 power forwards who played 40 games; McRoberts was 4th in assists per 40 minutes, and 8th in assist-to-turnover ratio (per Hoopdata). McRoberts will turn 24 years old next season and is a free agent.

Jeff Foster

Foster will turn 35 next year and, like the last two players, is a free agent. After missing almost the entire 2009-10 season, Foster played nearly 1,000 minutes last year. As Pacers fans know, he has never been a very good scorer, peaking at 7 ppg, but he’s becoming even less effective as he ages. Last year he scored only 7 points per 36 minutes and had shooting percentages well below average for a center.

Focusing on scoring, however, obscures the thing that Foster is great at: getting the ball off the glass. Foster’s offensive rebounding rate of 19.1% was the best in the NBA last year, and the closest center only grabbed 13.9% of available offensive rebounds. Of players that played over 600 minutes, the nearest player (Dejuan Blair) was at 14.8%. No one in the NBA was in Foster’s neighborhood as an offensive rebounder. If he had played enough minutes to qualify, this would have been the third time that he led the NBA in this category. (He is 5th all time for qualified leaders since 1971.) Foster also takes care of the ball well; his assist-to-turnover ratio was 5th among 58 centers. In short, Foster was a very effective anchor for the second team.

James Posey

Posey will be 35 next year and, unfortunately, is not a free agent. (He has one year left on his contract, which, at $7.6 million for the final year, was the price Larry Bird accepted to obtain Darren Collison in that trade with New Orleans.) Last year all he wanted to do offensively was shoot threes, taking 88% of his shots outside the arc. Unfortunately again, he was not very good at making them. No need to belabor that Posey is probably not part of the team’s short- or long-term plans.

AJ Price

Price will be 25 next year and is under contract for one more season. After giving the team solid minutes in 2009-10, Price was very poor offensively last year. He shot 8%-9% below average for guards in TS% and eFG%, which is a shame considering his 23% usage. He was an average passer and below average rebounder.

The Pacers were 3.49 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court, but his adjusted +/- was negative 12.7 points per 100. That metric gives Price no credit for the Pacers successes when he was on the court. (Most of the credit appears to go to Foster, which we will discuss more in part five of this series.). Given Price’s offensive “contributions,” this seems reasonable.

TJ Ford

Ford is 28 and a free agent. He was likely the worst offensive point guard in the NBA last year. He was benched the second half of the season. There is not much to say about T. J. Ford as it relates to the future of the Indiana Pacers.

Dahntay Jones

Jones will be 31 next year and has two years remaining on his contract. It’s hard to make much of last season’s 600 minutes, but efficiency-wise, Jones had a career offensive year. His career high TS% of 56% was paired with career high usage. His turnover rate was at a career low. This may be due to playing primarily against back ups; in 2009-10 (in 1,900 minutes) his shooting was below average and he had the 7th highest turnover rate of all shooting guards. Jones is a solid defender, but is a below average rebounder that fouls too much.

Solomon Jones

Jones will be 27 next year and is a free agent. There is not a lot positive to say about his play last season. His eFG% and TS% were approximately 10% below league average for a center. Of the top 58 centers in minutes, Jones ranked 53d in defensive rebounding and fouled the 5th most times per 40 minutes.

Lance Stephenson

Stephenson will be 21 next year and is under contract for one more year. He was the 8th ranked player in the high school class of 2009, but through his one year of college and one year in Indiana, there are concerns about conditioning, shot selection and behavior. Larry Bird has said that he is the most talented player on the roster. So far, we have yet to see this reflected in his numbers.

CBA Talk: Why the Owners Might Move Enough to Get the Players to Meet Them in the Middle

Tim Donahue — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 16:50:11 +0000

After weeks, months and, arguably, years of preparing for the likelihood of a long, frigid winter for the NBA and its players, did last week bring a sudden and unexpected thaw? Consider what Sam Amick referred to yesterday as “the reading of the labor tea leaves.”

On the heels of Roger Mason’s now-infamous tweet in which the NBPA vice president wrote, “Looking like a season. How u,” but later claimed his account was hacked, one league source claims that union president Derek Fisher text-messaged numerous players last week indicating that some progress had been made and imploring them to be physically prepared just in case the season started on time. There was another curious happening on Thursday, when — according to ESPN’s Chris Broussard — NBA deputy commissioner Adam Silver attended the U.S. Open with Wasserman Media Group CEO, Casey Wasserman [whose company employs NBA power agent Arn Tellum and serves his stable of clients, which includes Pau Gasol, Joe Johnson, Brandon Roy, Al Horford, Russell Westbrook, Tyreke Evans, LaMarcus Aldridge and Danilo Galinari].

With much of the NBA blogosphere begging for activity daily since June 30th, they should be pleased with both last week and this week. Last week brought the optimism so many were seeking. An owner/player meeting today includes an expanded group of representatives for each side. On Thursday, the two sides will break into their individual conclaves to let their constituents know the current state of the negotiations. (The owners will meet in Dallas and the Derek Fisher will take the NBPA reps to Vegas, where about 40 players are slated to participate in the Impact Basketball Academy summer league.)

Of course, we could just be in for a much-needed lesson in the difference between activity and accomplishment, as Ken Berger cautions.

According to five people briefed on the three days of high-level talks over the past two weeks, the two sides essentially are in the same place they’ve been since the owners’ most recent formal proposal in late June: billions of dollars apart.

“I don’t think they’ve made any progress there at all,” one of the people briefed on the negotiations told CBSSports.com. “They’re talking a lot, and the conversations are more cordial. But as far as the real numbers, I don’t think there’s anything there.”

So what we hear on a daily basis could mean everything, nothing or anything in between. One month from now, we could be analyzing free agent moves and training camps or we could be sitting exactly where we are. As has been the case for two and a half months, nothing will be any different, until something is actually different.

Hawks, Doves and Henry’s Owner Headcount

On Friday, TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott posted one of the most useful pieces of the lockout thus far — his “best assessment of where the 30 owners stand at the moment” in terms of their bargaining positions. And his research has led him to conclude that the ownership group is more fragmented than David Stern would have you believe.

The way the NBA tells it, all 30 owners are perfectly united, on every issue from hard caps to revenue sharing.

Of course, it cannot be so. Human nature dictates some owners are doves — eager to play the upcoming season — while others are hawks who would risk ditching a season in the name of a new collective bargaining agreement that strongly favors owners.

If the harbingers of progress are real (denials, notwithstanding), and the two sides are on the verge of an agreement that prevents the cancellation of games, then it tells me that the owners have moved considerably from their most recent public position. The reasons why the owners — who have been broadly portrayed as unreasonable bullies in this conflict — may actually be dealing from a semi-permanent position of weakness can be seen by using Abbott’s research to break things down a little further.

Though Abbott’s piece is based upon some speculation, it is relatively well-founded speculation. He lists “more than a dozen well-placed sources” that include “people directly involved in the talks, owners, players, CBA experts.” So for the purposes of this discussion, let’s presume it is at least accurate enough to base a worthwhile conversation on.

The simple tally is as follows:

17 “Hawks” (who would risk the season in the name of a new CBA that strongly favors owners)
12 “Doves” (who are eager to play the upcoming season)
1 Unclear (Alex Meruelo, who owns the team in Atlanta I won’t name for the confusion it could create)

Even if you were to cede Meruelo to the side of the hawks, 18 to 12 does not represent a strong majority. This count would dovetail with a comment Abbott made a few weeks suggesting that only about four owners needed to be moved out of the hawk category to get a deal signed with the players. Therefore, let’s take his arguments and break the owners down even further.

(Bucks owner and hawk hardliner Sen. Herb Kohl (D-WI) on what he thinks of the current CBA.)

Hawk Hardliners – 7

Jordan (CHA), Gilbert (CLE), Kroenke (DEN), Heisley (MEM), Kohl (MIL), Sarver (PHO), Maloofs (SAC)

These guys want big changes in the CBA and robust revenue sharing. But they are not a particularly influential group and are further muted by the possibility that they may not agree to any compromise that the players could swallow.

“Hockey” Hawk Hardliners – 2

Tannenbaum (TOR), Leonsis (WAS)

These guys also own NHL team. They lived through that league’s canceled 2005 season and came out OK. But they may be drawing parallels that are or aren’t sound. The answer to that isn’t something we could know unless an NBA season, in 2011-12, gets cancelled.

Private Equity Hawks – 2

Gores (DET), Harris (PHI)

These two come from the private equity world and are brand-new owners who are probably looking at the bottom line more closely than previous owners.

Hawks Who Had Success But Want Better Returns – 6

Grousbeck (BOS), Cuban (DAL), Allen (POR), Taylor (MIN), Holt (SAS), Miller (UTA)

Cuban and Holt probably fit the bill best for “smart owners who know how to succeed in current system, but recognize it includes huge amounts of luck if you’re not the Lakers.” If there is common fear among these guys, it’s that if they fall, they might not be able to get back up again. (See: Glen Taylor). But it’s not the individual motivations that matter here as much as who these guys represent. This group includes some of the most successful and stable franchises in the league.

(Jerry Buss enjoying some “psychic benefits” of owning the Lakers.)

Doves in Huge Markets Who Are Doing Just Fine Under the Current CBA – 3

Buss (LAL), Reinsdorf (CHI), Dolan (NYK)

It seems to me that there is really no way these three franchises don’t come out of this worse in any “reset” of the system. The current structure gives them big advantages that they are financially capable of exploiting. Perhaps Chicago might see some advantages compared with the other two (Jerry Reinsdorf is a much more conservative spender than the other two), but really, all three would probably be better off continuing the old CBA.

Doves in Strong Markets And/Or With A Large Incentive to Play This Year – 5

Lacob/Gruber (GSW), Bennett (OKC), DeVos (ORL), Arison (MIA), Alexander (HOU)

These guys range from “I’m OK with the current system” to “we gotta play this year.” Bennett and DeVos may benefit long term from changes to the system, but they won’t vote to lose this season. (Durant/Westbrook have too much short-term potential and Dwight Howard may only have so much time left in Orlando.) Arison needs the season (LeBron/Wade/Bosh won’t be around forever), and Golden State and Houston are doing well enough in their larger markets to be OK with how things currently stand.

Dove Living the American Dream – 1

Prokhorov (NJN)

Mikhail is immensely wealthy and owns arguably the league’s worst-performing franchise. But he will soon be moving to a huge market in Brooklyn and is trying to hang onto a superstar (or near-superstar) in Deron Williams, as Abbott noted. The history of the franchise suggests that its owner would take a hard line, but hope for future and the kind of money tailor-made to exploit the old system keeps him dovish.

Dove Named Donald Sterling – 1

Sterling (LAC)

I can’t begin to really explain the machinations here, but the short answer is that Donald Sterling will figure out how to make whatever system exists work to his advantage — financially. Besides, it’s certain he doesn’t want to lose another season of Blake Griffin.

League-Owned Dove – 1

NBA (NOH)

As Abbott puts it: “As the NBA owns the team, the good money is that this vote will echo whatever Stern wants. And by the time Stern presents a deal to owners for their votes, it’s a sure thing he’ll want it to pass.” In short, the league won’t put up any fight against its own proposal.

The One Dove Pacers Fans Care About Most – 1

Simon (IND)

Simon wants big revenue sharing changes, but he is apparently malleable on the system. At 76-years-old, Herb Simon is reasonably eager to move forward with the Pacers’ turnaround. Given the positive vibes emanating from last years’ finish and the ample cap space available, Simon may just be tired of waiting to finally erase the JailPacer era.

Go Big or Stay Home

Possibly the single most important thing to understand about the negotiation relationship between the owners and the players is also the one that has been singularly (perhaps studiously) ignored.

It is as follows: A lockout is the only weapon in the owners’ arsenal, if they want to make significant changes.

Without that threat, and without the will to act on that threat, the owners are reduced to saying, “pretty please with sugar on it” for anything they want. The NBPA need only play a spoiling action to put the owners to a decision about losing games, and most times, that will be a relatively safe gamble.

The issue faced in this bargaining session is that the owners view the current agreement as to be almost entirely in favor of the players. As such, there is nothing they have that they would be willing to “trade.” Since they have no carrot, they are left with only the stick.

But the lockout, and more importantly, the actual cancellation of games — let alone a season — must be used prudently. Before crossing that line, the owners must be rock solid sure of two things: (1) they will stick together, and (2) they will win.

As we see by the diversity of the list above, sticking together is a problem. Though many owners would like to see significant changes, this new look provided by Abbott’s breakdown — and my further distinctions — makes it hard to see that many would be willing to sacrifice much more than the summer and/or preseason to get them.

Of the 17 hawks listed in the Abbott piece, only seven seem to be entrenched enough to be willing to sacrifice all or even part of a season. And those on the extremes of a vote are always somewhat irrelevant in a negotiation, as little or nothing that transpires will change their minds. These seven (the owners of Charlotte, Cleveland, Denver, Memphis, Milwaukee, Phoenix and Sacramento) are further marginalized by the fact that they hold little influence within the voting community.

Moving to the other end of the hawk spectrum, you have the six owners who are most likely to swing their vote. Their positions seem “soft” to me — at least in this limited context. Dallas’ Cuban and Boston’s Grousbeck seem more likely to want to be hard on the players to avoid any significant revenue sharing reforms. But both, along with San Antonio’s Holt, are going to be highly motivated to get their aging championship contenders back onto the floor as quickly as possible. As rich as Cuban is, he may be swayed to kick the can (meaning any problems he has with the current CBA) down the road six years so he can get a 33-year-old Dirk and the rest of his old squad back on the court in November to mount a title defense.

If the owners are unsure that they will be able to remain unified then they’re probably even less sure of being able to “win.” That is to say that even the cancellation of a full season is unlikely to bring the owners what they want. And it seems that the previous two years of saber-rattling from the owners has put the players in position to last out a year.

Consider this: While some owners are fine with (and some would may actually prefer) a system like the current one, there are zero players who want anything to do with the owners’ proposed changes. So while the owners have largely been portrayed (and specifically, by me) as the more unified group who have the bank accounts to hold out longer, that might be a false narrative. One side features about 18 guys who want a CBA “reset”; the other features 450 guys (plus a ton of high-powered agents and any sponsors that just wants the games to start on time) that want the status quo. Unity comes easy, when all you’re trying to do is get somebody to vote “no” to what they view as “a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.”

Furthermore, the changes the owners want will disproportionally affect the middle and lower rung players, who basically are the union. The question of the lost paychecks can be ameliorated by understanding the structure of the players’ pay. According to Shamsports, 272 players made $3 million or less last season (combined, this group made about $314 million). If I were planning for the union, I would be using the reported $175 million lockout war chest, along with possibly the $26 million filler from the BRI audit to support that block of players through the lockout.

Those players, plus a chunk of the 124 players who made between $5-$15 million last year who are staring at being gutted, would likely give you a rock solid “no” vote to anything resembling the owners last public proposal.

Add to that potential (though limited) overseas opportunities, and it’s realistic to believe that the players could last an entire season or more. While I’ve made the comparison of “guys who’ve learned to hold their breath longer vs. guys with oxygen tanks” in the past, I’m less sure that there isn’t a tipping point in a long lockout where the advantage swings back to the players. None of this even considers what impact an upcoming National Labor Relations Board ruling could have, let alone the fallout from a potential decertification of the NBPA or any other litigation.

What it really comes down to is the inherent problem of having just this one weapon in the arsenal. If the threat doesn’t work, you have to cancel games. If canceling games doesn’t work, you have to cancel the season. If canceling the season doesn’t work, that’s the ballgame.

Now and pretty much forever.

Winning without Winning, Losing without Losing

So now the owners are in the grey area where everything can still be walked back. Other than some meaningless summer leagues, nothing has been cancelled, so nothing has been done that can’t be “undone.” If they are going to abandon their hard line so that no scheduled games will be missed then they have to act now.

Given the seemingly fragmented position of ownership shown here, it’s a very real possibility that they could easily abandon their hopes for a “reset” of the system, and settle for a simple money grab that could be gained through a more favorable BRI revenue split. It could be that the “reset” was always a red herring, and this could have been the goal of certain key owners all along.

But then again, maybe the owners are considerably less smart than that and were “fighting the last war.” Maybe after spending the last two months (and/or years) trying to convince the players they were serious, they finally realized the players were serious, too. Then, they contemplated what they were going to have to do if they really were serious. And upon reflection, and perhaps number-crunching, they are not prepared to do it.

In either case, the last two months could have served to push both sides off balance enough that an offer to maintain most or all of the current CBA system (soft cap, Bird exceptions, MLE, guaranteed deals, and contract lengths) could gain the owners a better BRI split — and faster — than otherwise hoped. It seems likely that getting the players down to 50/50, give or take a percentage point, would be enough for all but the seven hardliners above to agree to start the season on time (or as close to it as possible) regardless of the cap system.

Assuming the players are willing to go as far as 50/50 is a risky proposition. But it’s not unreasonable. It’s important to remember that the players — like the owners — are not of a hive mind. And while the BRI split is important to both, the actual percentage is really something of an abstraction to the two sides.

Consider this: Reducing the BRI split to 50/50 would represent a “pay cut” for the players of a little over 12%. How that affects each player, however, remains an open question. Assuming the same cap structure, you would clearly be able to see the impact on max deals, rookie deals and full MLEs. However, what happens with everyone in between?

Let’s pretend for a moment that, under the old CBA, Nene would have signed a 5-year deal averaging $12 million this summer. Now, under a CBA that is unchanged structurally but features a 50/50 BRI split, it is not certain that he would suffer from a 12% pay cut and instead have an average annual salary of $10.5 million. What he will demand on the open market could be unchanged.

This is because non-max, non-rookie and non-MLE contracts are only tangentially a function of the BRI split.

The primary determinant would be the same as always has been: the number of suitors with available cap space, and the ardor with which they will pursue him. The NBA’s salary structure doesn’t even approach being sophisticated or calibrated enough to have any direct effect on that market reality.

Now let’s talk about the impact a system change might have.

Let’s keep the BRI split at 57%, but reduce the max contract length to four or five years, instead of the current five or six years. That saves the owners zero dollars in total and pays the players the same amount. However, it is likely to have a far more obvious and punitive effect on individual players.

By reducing the max length by even one year, you impose a 20.1% reduction on what would have previously been a six-year deal, and a 23.5% reduction on what would have previously been a five-year deal. Of course, the player would have the opportunity to make that sum up on the next contract. But you have to ask yourself — what percentage of NBA actually players sign more than one “big” contract? (Answer: usually only the few that were worth their first big one.)

Unlike the exercise we went through with the owners, we can’t attempt any useful break down of how the league’s 450 players may be inclined to vote. There are just too many individuals with two many unknowable motivations and thought processes. But we can reasonably put ourselves in the mind of Josh McRoberts, the player ranked 250th out of 500 in ESPN’s #NBARank project. If you are him, which is more threatening to you: a reduction in the total amount of money the players will be owed or the reduction in the length of contracts and a hard (or harder) cap that will necessarily curtail guaranteed contracts?

I think we know which Josh would choose.

We will likely hear later today if more owners now seem inclined to let Josh keep his years — and the rest of the player-favorable system — in exchange for a cash grab off the top.

Ira Winderman summed it up perfectly.

We have reached the point of the NBA lockout where things either will move quickly or not at all.

If the owners let go of the system, and the players see significant value in that, then there is probably enough common ground — and common fear — to get a deal done.

If not …

Acknowledgment: Recently, I have had the privilege of receiving access to a team of financial and legal experts formed by Larry Coon. Their purpose was to parse through the league’s financial documents and make sense of the financial issues that underlie the labor dispute. They contributed greatly to Larry’s previous article on the lockout and have provided the foundation for some of the ideas in this piece. Assume the good ones are theirs, the bad ones are mine. Many thanks to Larry Coon for the opportunity and to everyone involved – all denizens of LakersGround.net — for their time and thoughts.

As always, thanks to Jared Wade for his help on editing and generally helping shape the piece into something coherent.

Indiana Forming a Lockout All-Star Squad

Jared Wade — Sat, 03 Sep 2011 15:46:07 +0000

Good news for anyone who wants to ease their lockout woes by watching professional players play amateur basketball in Indiana. It’s not the NBA, but it’s better than nothing. (h/t I Am A GM)

This summer, basketball fans have been treated to a number of big games featuring the best players from regions like Los Angeles, Washington D.C. and Baltimore. The Drew League, Goodman League and Melo League have made the lockout tolerable for many basketball fans and given a number of NBA stars something to do with their free time.

Now, it appears more players will have the opportunity to represent their hometown. Seattle and Indiana are among the regions working to put together their own travel teams featuring NBA players. Organizers are trying to assemble rosters and schedule games against the other regional teams.

The team from Indiana hasn’t released a roster, but there are a number of NBA players who were born in the area that could participate. Zach Randolph, Eric Gordon, George Hill, Courtney Lee, Jeff Teague, Mike Conley, Josh McRoberts, Jared Jeffries, Brad Miller and Gordon Hayward were all born in Indiana. Other NBA players such as Luke Harangody and Rodney Carney could also be eligible to play since they attended high school in the area.

Indiana might not have Durant, Melo or Kobe, but they could field perhaps the most well-rounded actual team. Hill and EJ starting in the backcourt with Z-Bo, McRoberts and some third guard starting up front.

Barnstorm away.

Based on the photo of his torso below, I’m guessing George Hill is in.

Game #76 Recap: Pacers Handle Pistons

Alex Yovanovich — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 03:19:20 +0000

The Indiana Pacers looked great in handling the Pistons 111-101 on Wednesday night. Darren Collison led the attack with 20 points, Danny Granger added 17 and Josh McRoberts had a career-best with 13 rebounds to add to an effective 15-point night. Mike Dunleavy inspired the troops by making a triumphant return from injury to score 9 points. It was truly a night when no one on the Pacers played poorly.

On nights like these it’s easy to envision the Pacers as a worthy playoff team, despite their 34-42 record. Play well and the Pacers should easily be able to steal a game in a likely first round match-up against Chicago. Pushing a Chicago series to five games would be a noteworthy accomplishment for this group and set the franchise on the right path for the future. With the impending cap room the Pacers are about to enjoy this would be the icing on the cake.

All seems right with the world. The Pacers just spanked the Pistons. They continue to have a one-game lead for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Keep playing like this and the regular season business will soon turn into the postseason bonus.

Which makes the cynic in me wonder — based on how things have gone this season — how far does the pendulum now swing in the other direction?

A quick glance at the Pacers closing schedule shows that there aren’t many teams like Detroit left on the slate. In fact, I count only one sure win, next Wednesday against Washington. It all starts with a game against Milwaukee, which will be looking at a last gasp effort on Friday to stay in the playoff race by beating the Pacers.

Here’s the Pacers remaining schedule:

Friday, April 1 – Milwaukee (30-44)
Sunday, April 3 – at New Orleans (42-32)
Wednesday, April 6 – Washington (18-56)
Friday, April 8 – Atlanta (42-32)
Sunday, April 10 – New York (36-38)
Wednesday, April 13 – at Orlando (47-28)

While things look a little daunting, it could be easier than anticipated if Atlanta, New York and Orlando all are locked into their playoff spots and decide that they have nothing to play for down the stretch.

On the surface, Charlotte has more games that they should win. Their closing schedule includes several bad teams in Washington, Cleveland, Detroit and New Jersey.

Here’s the Bobcats remaining schedule:

Friday, April 1 – at Orlando (47-28)
Sunday, April 3 – Washington (18-56)
Tuesday, April 5 – at Cleveland (15-59)
Wednesday, April 6 – Orlando (47-28)
Friday, April 8 – at Miami (52-23)
Sunday, April 10 – Detroit (26-48)
Monday, April 11 – at New Jersey (23-50)
Wednesday, April 13 – Atlanta (42-32)

Before their latest Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde routine, I really thought making the playoffs would be a relatively easy proposition for the Pacers. As Tim Donahue pointed out in recent article, the Pacers should have been home free after thoroughly dismantling the Bobcats last week.

Instead, they find themselves in a fight for their lives. Michael Jordan essentially made it public that Charlotte did not want to be the 7th or 8th seed in the East when he traded away his key pieces before the February deadline. Somehow, the Charlotte players ignored all that and have gone on to win four games in a row since the Pacers blew them out on their home court.

Meanwhile, the Pacers somehow managed to lose by double-digits to both Sacramento and Detroit before putting together a great effort to beat Boston.

The Pacers are a hard team to figure out. They have beaten teams they shouldn’t be able to beat, but they have lost in blowouts many more times to teams they should beat consistently.

If the Pacers recent trend of beating teams that are headed to the playoffs holds true, they should be in good shape. That would mean at least four wins down the stretch and the blue and gold would be playoff bound.

Given the wild swings of inconsistency this year, that is probably too much to ask …

But I’ll cross my fingers anyway.