As always, here are the links to the rest of the discussion.

• Part I:  Stat Rankings and Number Crunching
• Part II:  Awards and Accolades
• Part III:  First Year Impact
• Part IV:  Validating AdjPR100 and the 5-Star System
• Part V:  Ranking the Draft Classes – The 10 Worst
• Part VI:  Ranking the Draft Classes – 11 to 20
• Part VII: Ranking the Draft Classes – Top Ten
• Redux: #26

Thursday, June 24, 2004

The Situation – The Pacers had just won a franchise-record 61 games, giving them the best record in the NBA that season. Indiana needed to figure out how to get past the defending champion Detroit Pistons, but it was unlikely that it would come from their picks – which were the final pick of each round.

Who they got – Indiana took David Harrison, a 7-footer from Colorado, at 29, and Rashad Wright, a 6-2 guard from Georgia, at 59. Wright was cut in training camp, but Harrison lasted four relatively uneventful years in the Blue-and-Gold. He played almost 2,700 minutes in 189 games – even starting 33 of them – while posting an AdjPR100 of 2.86 and compiled 3.1 Win Shares.

Probably best remembered for either his brief suspension for testing positive for drugs, or for his temper, Harrison fell out of the NBA after his rookie deal ended in 2008. Still, his career was fairly representative for a #29 pick, finishing 15th in the study for AdjPR100 and 17th in total Win Shares.

Who they wish they got – One pick after the Pacers took Harrison, Cleveland selected Anderson Varejao. Varejao’s AdjPR100 is 9.55 (degraded by a reliability factor under 70%) and his almost 35 Win Shares are 10th most from the 2004 class. Though somewhat injury prone, Sideshow Andy has proven to be one of the better defensive big men in the league.

Possibly Apocryphal Story that’s Fun to Tell, Nonetheless – The big rumor on draft night was that the Pacers were going to trade Al Harrington to the Bulls, who held both the third and seventh picks. The common gossip was that Larry Bird wanted to move up to grab Luke Jackson from Oregon. Nothing came to fruition, and Chicago drafted Ben Gordon at #3 and Luol Deng at #7.

The story that came out later was that Bird was not, in fact, interested in Jackson, who failed miserably in the NBA. Apparently, his target was Ben Gordon, and the deal fell apart on Bird’s insistence on the #3 instead of #7. It would make for an interesting exercise to go through the chain of events that would follow, had Indiana agreed to use Al Harrington to get the #7 (and Luol Deng or Andre Iguodala), and not to get Stephen Jackson.

Tuesday, June 28, 2005

The Situation – Post-brawl, and post-Reggie, the Pacers were trying to right the ship. The one upside of the debacle that was the 2005 season was the Pacers had an unusually high draft pick (#17) for a team considered to be a contender. They also had the #46 pick.

Who they got – Though projected as a Top 10 pick, teams continued to leave Danny Granger on the board. Some of it was due to fears about Granger’s knees, and some of it was just GMs being too smart for their own good. In any case, when it was time for the 17th pick , Danny Granger became a Pacer.

At 46, the Pacers took Erazem Lorbek. Lorbek has spent his career in Europe, having some pretty good success there,  but nothing in the NBA to this point.

Who they wish they got – Arguments perhaps could be made for David Lee or Monta Ellis, but the Pacers have to be pretty happy with their guy. Granger has been and All Star and won Most Improved Player. His 16.23 AdjPR100 and 46.7 Win Shares are both 4th best in the class of 2005. His numbers also put him among the most successful players ever drafted at #17, ranking with Josh Smith, Shawn Kemp, and former Pacer Jermaine O’Neal.

Lorbek has had success overseas, and he is reportedly going to come over to San Antonio next season (where he was traded as part of the package to get George Hill). However, Pacers probably would take a do over to get Marcin Gortat (57) or perhaps even Ryan Gomes (50). Andray Blatche (49)…ehhhh…not so much.

Possibly Apocryphal Story that’s Fun to Tell, Nonetheless – The popular folklore is that Larry Bird was on the phone negotiating a trade for the 17th pick, when they got on the clock. Supposedly, he interrupted the guy on the other end of the phone, saying, “I gotta go draft Danny Granger.” And then he hung up.

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

The Situation – A year removed from the brawl, the Pacer foundation continued to crumble with things more insidious. A December trade demand by Ron Artest devolved into a 6-week slogfest and a rental of Peja Stojakovic. It derailed the season, and Indiana limped to a .500 record and a first-round exit playing really ugly basketball. They entered the night with the 17th and 45th picks.

Who they got – Many predicted that the Pacers would go for a point guard, with rumors that they were hoping that UConn’s Marcus Williams would fall to them at 17. Imagine everyone’s surprise when Indiana reached for Shawne Williams, a promising, but immature tweener from Memphis.

Williams’ career showed flashes, but never went anywhere with the Pacers. He rates as a One Star player on this system, and has only produced 4.2 Win Shares. Things got somewhat hairy off the court, leading to Williams being traded a couple times, then falling out of the league. He got a second chance last season, and was a fairly decent role player – but still a disappointment.

At 45, the Pacers took Alexander Johnson, then trade him and two future second round draft picks for James “Flight” White from Cincinnati. White was given considerable hype, but his high water mark was committing a whole lot of a fouls in the summer league, before being cut in training camp.

Who they wish they got – Welllllll…Paul Millsap went 47th, so you could have had him instead of either (or both) Williams or White. Kyle Lowry went 24th.

But mostly…Rajon Rondo was the miss. Rondo went 21st to Boston, and went on to become one of the best point guards in the league. There were questions about his shooting ability. OK, not so much question about his shooting ability as questions about how well he could succeed with no shooting ability. Pretty well, as it turns out.

Possibly Apocryphal Story that’s Fun to Tell, Nonetheless – There’s nothing fun in talking about this draft. The best that could be said is that Marcus Williams really wouldn’t have been a better pick than Shawne. The very definition of “damning with faint praise.”

Thursday, June 28, 2007

The Situation – At this point in time, the wheels had completely come off the cart. The Pacers had traded both of their picks in the 2007 Draft the previous summer. Their first rounder went to Atlanta for Al Harrington, who was later used to help get Stephen Jackson out of town. Their second rounder went to Portland in the James White deal, who didn’t make it out of training camp as a rookie. Carlisle had been fired, and the Pacers were pretty widely hated – not disliked, hated – in the community for a series of off court transgressions that were hugely embarrassing.

Who they got - Early in the second round, we found out that the Pacers had traded a 2009 Second Round pick to get the #39 pick from Miami. That pick was used on Stanko Barac, a very raw, very young 7-footer from Bosnia. Barac has spent the time since in Europe, and it is unclear when or if he’ll ever see the NBA.

The 2009 Pick became #43, and was used on Marcus Thornton.

Who they wish they got – Pretty much anyone, but the obvious choice is Marc Gasol, who went 47th. He ranks in the top 4 in the class in AdjPR100 and Win Shares, and statistically has been neck-and-neck with Joakim Noah (9th).

Atlanta used Indiana’s #11 pick to select Acie Law, who had the same cool name as Acie Earl, but lacked the fade, or any other redeeming quality. Thad Young (#12) is probably the guy I would have wanted at that spot.

Possibly Apocryphal Story that’s Fun to Tell, Nonetheless – Bird said before the draft, that he was going to make big move, and get “one of the best shooters in the game.” Rumors had the Pacers and the Rockets planning a swap that would send Ike Diogu to Houston for the #26, and the Pacers were reportedly targeting Morris Almond – a shooting guard from Rice. It never materialized, as Utah took Almond one pick earlier, and Houston took Aaron Brooks.

With no picks and no cap space, Indiana filled out the roster with minimum level players. Stephen Graham, Andre Owens, Kareem Rush, and Travis Diener were all signed to very low contracts, and all of them actually started at different times during the season. Dark days for the Pacers, indeed.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

The Situation – The Pacers had missed the playoffs for the second time in a row. The prior summer had been filled with rumors of JO to the Lakers, and the Pacers were clearly uncompetitive. Indiana had the 11th pick, and in the days before the draft, they agreed to a deal to send Jermaine O’Neal and the Pacers Second Round pick (#41) to Toronto for T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, Maceo Baston, and #17.

Who they got – One of the interesting things that happened the day of the draft was Jerryd Bayless’ drop. Predicted in a lot of early mock drafts to go at #4, he had held there until just a day or two before the draft. Then, a combination of Russell Westbrook’s rising stock and a string of teams where Bayless wasn’t the best fit led to him falling all the way down to #11. The Pacers took him, but as part of an agreed upon trade with Portland (and the new Pacer GM – Kevin Pritchard), dealt him to the Pacific Northwest along with Ike Diogu. In return, the Pacers got the #13 pick (Brandon Rush), Jarrett Jack, and Josh McRoberts.

From that trade, the Pacers probably got the most value out of the single year of Jarrett Jack. Josh McRoberts – who was really just filler – ended up sticking, even earning a part-time starting slot, but his prominence with the Pacers said far more about how bad the Indy’s roster/bigs were than to any qualities of McBob.

Brandon Rush spent three uninspiring years with the Pacers, playing over 6,000 minutes before being dealt to Golden State for Lou Amundson. His career number are above average for a #13 (AdjPR100 9.08, 9.5 WS), but not all that hot for a Class of 2008 that was stunningly deep (would currently rate at 6th best in the study). Last season, the Wall Street Journal named him the “NBA’s most mediocre player,” and that seems to fit pretty well.   With Brandon, it was easy to see why he should be a good player, but not so easy to understand why he wasn’t.

With the #17 pick, the Pacers appear to have hit a home run with Roy Hibbert from Georgetown. This past season, Hibbert became only the fourth #17 to become an All Star. (The other three were Shawn Kemp, former Pacer Jermaine O’Neal, and current Pacer Danny Granger.) Big Roy has produced 16 Win Shares and had a solid 3-Star career. Last season, he put up 4-star numbers, with an AdjPR100 of over 19 and 6+ WS.

Who they wish they got – Though there may be some arguments, once again, I think Roy Hibbert was the right guy to take at #17. On an AdjPR100 basis, he’s top five in his class at the moment, and he’s 10th in Win Shares.

However, most of the guys taken after 17th that you might argue for over Roy almost certainly would get the nod over Brandon Rush. Current Pacer George Hill (26) is among them. Besides that, Nic Batum (25), Luc Mbah a Moute (37), and Serge Ibaka (24) are all players I would clearly choose over Brandon. Others could argue for JaVale McGee (18), DeAndre Jordan (35), Mario Chalmers (34), Courtney Lee (22), Ryan Anderson (21), or Goran Dragic (45).

As I said earlier, this was just a stunningly deep class.

Possibly Apocryphal Story that’s Fun to Tell, Nonetheless – The summer of 2008 kicked off the “Three Year Plan” for the Pacers to rebuild. Stunningly, that coincided with all the bad contracts coming off the books, so it could have also been accurately called the “We Don’t Have Any Freakin’ Choice” plan. Larry Bird and David Morway didn’t bat 1.000 on their first draft day, but decisions made on this day were both crucial and positive factors in turning the franchise around.

One alternate rumor in the days running up to the draft was JO to Cleveland for Anderson Varejao and the #19 pick (along with Wally Szczerbiak’s expiring contract). That would have been an intriguing move, as it’s possible the Pacers could have still landed Hibbert at #19. As with all things, one altered step spins the future in a different direction, and you are never sure whether that direction would be better or worse.

To be continued – With apologies, I will get 2009, 2010 and 2011 up as quickly as possible – hopefully before tonight’s draft – but real life intrudes. If worse comes to worst, we’ll be able to talk about what happened on Thursday, June 28, 2012, as well.

There’s a possibility that former CEO Donnie Walsh will return to the franchise in some capacity, multiple sources told The Star.

It’s uncertain what role Walsh will play with the franchise.

That question should be answered next week when team owner Herb Simon returns to Indianapolis for meetings to help clear up the team’s murky front office situation.

Wells goes on to note that Walsh has actually attended some of the pre-draft workouts.

This adds to a somewhat curious summer for the Pacer Front Office situation. Larry Bird’s status is still unclear, with reports of his departure running hot and cold. At the post-season presser, Bird looked and sounded for all the world like a man set to return. Days later, Dan Dakich was saying on his local radio show that Bird was definitely leaving.

Then, we hear from Adrian Wojnarowski that Bird’s plan was to fire the current General Manager, David Morway, and replace him Kevin Pritchard. This was later confirmed by Mike Wells, though with considerably different spin.

Woj portrayed Morway as the victim of some corporate backstabbing by Pritchard. While that may be true, at least to some degree, it’s important to note that Woj has a history with Pritchard, famously torching the former Portland GM back in 2010.

Wells’ sources with the Pacers, however, maintained that Bird’s relationship had soured with Morway on its own.

It takes awhile to earn Bird’s trust and once you burn that bridge he’s done with people. That’s the case right now with Morway.

The final straw with the Bird-Morway relationship, according to those close to the two, came during training camp when the Pacers failed to land O.J. Mayo and then lost out on free agent Jamal Crawford – option No. 2 to be the team’s first shooting guard off the bench – on the same day.

The Pacers had agreed to a sign-and-trade deal that would have sent Josh McRoberts to Memphis for Mayo because the Grizzlies were trying to shed salary. Sources say it was Morway that caused the deal to “fall apart” because he pushed the Grizzlies to take swingman Brandon Rush. Morway did a lot of talking to teams and some of the negotiating. Bird would then step in and make the final decision.

Bird was seething over the blown deal, according to sources. He had lost any remaining trust in Morway after that.

To make matters worse, Crawford and his agent got tired of waiting on the Pacers to make a decision that they told them the same day the Mayo deal fell apart that they weren’t going to sign with them.

Of course, this is probably true, as well, at least to some degree. Regardless of the specific details, this information being fed to Wells does seem to at least indicate that The Powers That Be in the Pacer organization are backing Pritchard, not Morway. All the while, Bird’s future was (is) waiting to be determined by a face-to-face meeting with Herb Simon that was to be held this past week, but now isn’t expected until sometime next week.

And now Donnie Walsh might be in the picture.

The Pacers are now six days from the 2012 NBA Draft, and less than two weeks from the start of a crucial free agent summer, and it is still unclear who will be steering the ship. So, is it time to panic? Are they all out of their minds?

No.

Well, at least probably not. Sure, it could all blow up, but there’s no real reason to expect it. The first thing to realize is that while the situation is unclear to us, it is not necessarily unclear to the people directly involved. It’s entirely possible that what looks like wide gaps from the outside are not considered to be large obstacles by those directly involved.

Perhaps the most assuring fact in the situation is that everyone in the picture – Simon, Bird, Walsh, and Pritchard – are all pretty competent hands. It’s not like we’ve got a power struggle between Larry Brown and Isiah Thomas going on here. The most likely outcome is that everything will be fine.

Still, this isn’t really designed to fill the casual observer with confidence. There are some things here that you wish weren’t. Playing out the Morway-to-Pritchard transition in public is less than ideal. The continuing delays in meeting between Bird and Simon could be troubling, and the (re)introduction of Donnie Walsh’s name at this stage of the game does raise some eyebrows.

We could be seeing some red flags popping up, or we could just be witnessing sausages being made, it’s impossible to tell. The Pacers are victim of having this type of internal decision making being played out quasi-publicly. Keep in mind, that three of the major players – Simon, Bird, and Walsh – all have a history of making decisions on their own terms and their own timeline. This does not lend itself to a quick process.

Is this the way things should be done? No, but I’ll tell you I’ve worked for over 20 years in some of the largest and most successful companies in the world, and I can’t ever recall seeing any company or any one person consistently do things the “way they should be done.”

How will it play out? Don’t know, but I’m not particularly worried. We’ll find out soon enough. For now, there is just the waiting.

According to Mike Wells of the Indianapolis Star, reigning NBA Executive of the Year Larry Bird plans to return as the Indiana Pacers’ president. But once he is officially set to lead the franchise again next year, Bird reportedly wants to make a major change to the front office: replacing current GM David Morway with his former Celtics teammate Kevin Pritchard, who was hired as Pacers’ director of player personnel in the 2011 offseason.

The reason is reportedly more about Bird’s poor relationship with Morway as it is with his respect for Pritchard’s basketball acumen, although the two are presumably intertwined.

The relationship between Morway and Bird reportedly became strained when the GM failed to acquire OJ Mayo (in a sign-and-trade deal for Josh McRoberts) or Jamal Crawford (through free agency) before the season. In fact, according to Wells, the two now have “no relationship,” and Morway is a “soon-to-be ousted general manager.”

The final straw with the Bird-Morway relationship, according to those close to the two, came during training camp when the Pacers failed to land O.J. Mayo and then lost out on free agent Jamal Crawford – option No. 2 to be the team’s first shooting guard off the bench – on the same day.

The Pacers had agreed to a sign-and-trade deal that would have sent Josh McRoberts to Memphis for Mayo because the Grizzlies were trying to shed salary. Sources say it was Morway that caused the deal to “fall apart” because he pushed the Grizzlies to take swingman Brandon Rush. Morway did a lot of talking to teams and some of the negotiating. Bird would then step in and make the final decision.

Bird was seething over the blown deal, according to sources. He had lost any remaining trust in Morway after that.

Bird had tried multiple times over the years land Mayo, who he felt would be the one player on the roster that could get his own shot off the dribble.

To make matters worse, Crawford and his agent got tired of waiting on the Pacers to make a decision that they told them the same day the Mayo deal fell apart that they weren’t going to sign with them.

It also showed, as Bird was never really with Morway during the games.

Things were so bad that during the playoffs Bird took the coaching staff and training staff out to dinner on back-to-back nights during their playoff series against Orlando and brought Pritchard along and didn’t invite Morway, his general manager, sources say. It was Pritchard who often sat next to Bird during the games on the road while Morway usually sat several rows higher.

It was no wonder that Morway interviewed with the Portland Trail Blazers to take over as their GM, a position once held by Pritchard.. That job, however, went to former Los Angeles Clippers GM Neil Olshey. Now, it looks like Bird will return and Morway will be out of a job. Presumably, this will be the biggest “question” that Larry will have for his owner, Herb Simon, when they sit down soon (next week has been reported by Wells) to make Bird’s return official. And if Simon wants Bird to continue to be team president — especially for under-market pay — it would likely be a no-brainer for him to allow Larry to have complete control over who comprises the front-office team.

I wasn’t there and don’t even know exactly what Larry Bird means. So this is presented without comment. (image above via Mike Wells tweet)

In his story on Bird’s comments, Indianapolis Star Pacers beat writer added the following.

Those are the strongest words I’ve ever heard Bird say about his team – good or bad – in my seven-plus years of covering the Pacers.

And he ended his story well by framing what this might mean for the Pacers going into Game 6.

Bird has spoken. Now we’ll see if his players respond to being publicly embarrassed – on the court and by their president – or if they’ll curl up in the fetal position in Game 6 on Thursday.

Game 6 is on Thursday at 8:00 pm EST.

Tim Donahue speaks on how and why Larry Bird won the Executive of the Year Award.

In one season, the Pacers leapfrogged from sneaking into the Eastern Conference playoffs for the first time in five years as an 8th seed with a losing record to the fifth best team in the NBA. Some of that is from natural improvement: Roy Hibbert, Paul George and Darren Collison all became much better players in a short time. But a lot of it is also the product of the most obvious reason: David West and George Hill are now on the roster.

For this — and perhaps just being a Pawn Star GM who made didn’t sign any free agents to bad contracts before the season — Larry Bird has been named 2011-12 NBA Executive of the Year. He certainly deserves the recognition. RC Buford of the Spurs is really the only other reasonable candidate.

In getting the award, Bird becomes the first person to win MVP, Coach of the Year and Executive of the Year honors. I’m not sure there is another person alive more befitting his nickname. Legend indeed.

Of course, it will be a classic Larry Bird move if he does walk away from the job after he is named the best in the business at it. Just seems like a nice, tidy way to end things. Even more classic Bird? This comment from Larry: “This is an honor for the Indiana Pacers, not an award for Larry Bird.”

Regardless of what happens in the offseason, Bird has certainly set up this home state franchise for long-term success.

Today, in response to a report by Ken Berger of CBS Sports again claiming he is finished, Larry reiterated the fact that he has not yet made up his mind to Indianapolis Star reporter Mike Wells.

“Once again, no decision has been made,” Bird said by phone. “I’ll sit down with my owner at the end of the season and we’ll talk about things.”

I promise this will be the last report on this topic until Larry says something definitive.

A few weeks ago, NBA Hall of Fame scribe Peter Vecsey reported that this was definitely Larry Bird’s last season running the Pacers. Bird had already made up his mind, Vecsey’s source(s) told him. Larry denied the report, however, claiming that he had yet to make up his mind.

Now, Ken Berger of CBS Sports is backing up Vecsey’s report and it now seems overwhelmingly obvious that Bird is in fact done in Indiana’s front office.

Pacers president Larry Bird wants owner Herb Simon to plan for his departure after the season and has told several friends in the NBA that he’s decided to leave, two people familiar with the situation told CBSSports.com Thursday.

Bird, 55, had an agreement with Simon to remain team president through the end of the season and decide his future then. The Hall of Famer has been clear in conversations with friends that Simon does not need to wait any longer before formally considering candidates to replace him, one of the sources said.

Bird is said to be “100 percent” certain he’s leaving after the most successful season of the Pacers’ post-Palace brawl rebuilding, one of the sources said, but has been extremely guarded publicly about his intentions. The Pacers (42-24) have been one of the surprise teams of the lockout-shortened season, securing the No. 3 seed in the East and hosting the Magic in the first round beginning Saturday.

As we’ve written here previously, this isn’t surprising.

Bird has long said that he wanted to makes sure the franchise was back on good footing before he left a league that, at his age, he seems to no longer have a deep desire to be a part of. He had a three-year plan to right the ship. He was impressively patient in doing so, acquiring quality (mostly) young players on low-risk contracts. He cleared all the bad deals off the books and whoever is running the team in the future will have an enviable amount of flexibility to put their stamp on the franchise’s future. Meanwhile, the team will enter the playoffs on Saturday as the third best team in the Eastern Conference after having limped into the postseason last season with a losing record.

Yup, Larry has stewarded a team he coached to its only NBA Finals appearance 12 years ago into a new era of respectability. Given his role in creating the roster that brought a team that had reached such heights to such lows, I’m sure he is happy to be from under the burden of having steered the Pacers into the wrong direction. As it stands, there is no way to argue this team is not in a good place.

In the worst possible assessment, Larry stuck it out — probably longer than he wanted to — in order to fix what he broke. And that’s a level of personal accountability that it’s hard not to respect. So Pacers fans should now wish him the best — both in his post-NBA life and over the next few weeks as this team tries to exceed the expectations of even the man who built it.

Tonight, before Indiana’s win over Miami, there was a much more somber event at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Jeff Foster addressed the media for the final time as a Pacer player. Unfortunately, it was to officially end his career and answer questions about what it meant to him to play 13 years for the same franchise, just like his boss Larry Bird did.

This wasn’t actually news. Last week came the sudden, but not altogether shocking, announcement that Foster’s playing days are over after years of back trouble finally made professional basketball something that could jeopardize his long-term livelihood.

The other night in Washington, I asked Danny Granger how he felt when he first heard the news. “I was sad,” said Granger. “He was probably the best teammate I’ve had in my whole career here. Just that I won’t see him any more in the locker room is kind of heart-breaking.”

Whenever anyone is forced to retire early due to injury, it is indeed sad. But for Foster, you can add another unfortunate reason: the timing. After so many seasons struggling through off-court turmoil and on-court mediocrity, Indiana has just seemingly started to right the ship. Jeff was supposed to be here to enjoy that road back towards the top. But instead, he enters retirement.

“He went through the bad parts,” said Granger. “He got a little bit of the good parts when the Pacers were really good way back when. But for the most part, he went through a lot of bad years here, so it’s sad to see him go when we finally turned it around.”

Luckily, Jeff does have something going for him: financial stability. We hear so many tales of guys like Antoine Walker, Christian Laettner, Scottie Pippen and Allen Iverson falling on tough times after their successful playing days.

For Foster, nothing could be further away. He has invested his earnings shrewdly — even being profiled by Bloomberg BusinessWeek for his ability to manage a portfolio — and will never be mentioned as a cautionary tale to players entering the league.

“He had good career, made a lot of money and he was smart with his money,” said Granger, “so I’m sure he’ll have a great retirement.”

I’m sure he will. And after hearing him talk hoops on Fox Sports Indiana alongside Chris Denari and Quinn Buckner tonight during the second quarter of the Pacers win, Pacers fans can only hope that Foster’s post-playing career will involve some analyst work.

Well done, Jeff. Both on the color commentary and that 13 years of service to the Pacers.

Lightning rod New York Post columnist Peter Vecsey wrote today that Larry Bird will not return next year as Pacers head honcho “regardless of how the 26-18 team finishes.” He knows this is a certainty, he says, due to being informed by “someone very much in the know.”

“He has definitely decided not to return,” the source asserted.

Hired six seasons ago as Donnie Walsh’s eventual replacement, Bird was paid $5 million per for the first five. It appeared he was about to retire to his home in Naples, Fla., after last season. However, a strong finish, topped by a promising first round playoff showing against the Bulls, and an appeal from owner Herb Simon to stick around convinced him otherwise, in spite of having his salary slashed to $1 million.

A handshake promise was given Simon last summer by Bird that he would consider re-upping for another season, but that has been ruled out. It’s believed Simon is aware of such and has a petite list of prospective replacement candidates.

Walsh, I’m told, is eager to get back to work full time for a team as soon as his consultancy contract with the Knicks expires, yet it’s doubtful he would be rehired by Simons.

“They’re just not as close as they once were,” claimed a source.

The firm belief by those with a pulse on the situation: Simon is more apt to choose a marquee name like Reggie Miller or Chris Mullin as opposed to promoting the people on site, general manager David Moray or personnel director Kevin Pritchard.

Look for Walsh to resurface as a reasonable contender for jobs in Orlando or Washington should Otis Smith be fired and/or Ernie Grunfeld not be rehired.

If Bird were to step down, it wouldn’t exactly be a shock. He was reportedly reluctant to return last season, and likely has in his own mind fulfilled his core mission of the post-Brawl franchise reclamation project: returning the franchise to respectability and leaving it healthy, both on the court and the balance sheet.

UPDATE: As for Reggie becoming GM, I don’t see it as the best move. I wrote about it — poorly, if I recall — a while back when the idea first surfaced. Here’s an excerpt.

being an Indiana legend could be as problematic as it is helpful. Reggie would get a pass on some blunders because of who he is. But as the blunders added up (and they would … even great GMs have a sizable list of misfires), he would likely feel a lot more pressure to fix them than a guy like, Daryl Morey, or even Chris Mullin, would.

Conseco is colloquially referred to as “The House Reggie Built.” How do you deal with that? That puts a ton of pressure on a man to make things right. And perhaps the worst thing to do after you make a mistake as a GM is try to instantly fix it.