Yes, the Pacers’ season is over. But what a season it has been. We get a last look at how true fans were to the team. This one right here used a flamingo to taunt LeBron James after he missed an easy dunk.

Enjoy the rest of the playoffs.

After four games the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat are dead even. Now the Pacers have to attempt to brush off historic performances from Lebron James and Dwyane Wade and travel to Miami for Game 5.

Along with every other sports outlet in the country, we have analyzed this series by looking at both teams offensive and defensive play calls and nitpicked every type of statistic. But maybe it’s time to take a step back. Maybe it’s time to take a look at the larger narrative.

November 19th, 2004. The infamous Malice in the Palace. Some people claim that is the day professional basketball died in Indiana. Those people were perhaps being over-dramatic. But things did change that day. An organization lost its respectability. “Basketball Paradise” lost its context in regard to the Pacers and they turned into just another small market team.

July 8th, 2010. The Decision. Some people claim that this was the day that professional basketball died everywhere. Those people were definitely being over-dramatic. I think the Dallas Mavericks proved that last year. But Lebron James changed the game. Whether it’s fair or unfair, the Miami Heat became the bad guys. I’m assuming that you remember this. It’s no that coincidence that it strongly resembles this. The Heat are probably the most covered team in sports of the past twenty years. They also might be the most hated.

For a few brief moments in June when Dirk Nowitzki hoisted that trophy over his head, it felt like the Heat experiment was a failure. But like most box office movies where the bad guy loses in the end, he will come back stronger in the sequel. And coming into this NBA season nearly every pundit predicted that the Miami Heat would walk away champions.

On July 8th, 201o, the Miami Heat found the magic seeds to get a championship. Throw them in the ground and watch them grow instantly. Keep hydrated with an Udonis Haslem or two, maybe a Mario Chalmers, and make sure you hire an Erik Spoelstra to watch over them, and you will get your desired results in 12 to 24 months.

Meanwhile, Larry Bird had been staring at what felt like a demolition site, plowed over by a flying drink and whatever thoughts fly around in the mind of the man known in those days as Ron Artest. Larry Legend went with the only option in front of him: he started rebuilding, brick by brick, draft pick by draft pick. Grab a Danny Granger for a foundation, draft a Roy Hibbert for support. Acquire a Darren Collison or George Hill to tie the place together. Maybe even add a Barbosa to provide a little flair. And sure enough it started to look right.

The Indiana Pacers have an excellent team. But hardly anyone knows it. They get approximately zero national coverage. The Miami Heat, on the other hand, can’t make a ham sandwich without breaking national news.

And unfortunately we have to talk about the attendance. The Miami Heat have sold out a fair amount of games. But according to my (perhaps biased) eyes, they are sold out by a lot of late arrivals and early departures. Indiana, though, had the second-worst attendance in the NBA this season. While that has improved mightily for the playoffs — which have feature commendable raucous sold-out crowds at The Fieldhouse — it certainly merits a little bit of criticism. But perhaps, the Indiana faithful were just a little gun-shy the past couple years. It’s nice to have a team full of talented, high-character guys, but would it amount to much? Danny Granger isn’t Reggie Miller so what’s the point? It seems like the team has great chemistry, but are they tough enough to exceed expectations?

Maybe because of November 19th, 2004 — and all the police blotter coverage that followed — the fans were hurt. Hurt in the most unique way. Maybe they just were in need of a little motivation. Maybe they needed a push. Maybe they needed a reminder that these are not the Pacers of the 90s, but they are also not the Pacers of the mid-2000s. They are simply the 2012 Pacers.

If anything could assure everyone in Pacer Nation of that thought it would be a Game 6 in Indiana with a chance at eliminating the Heat. If the Pacers can win Game 5 in Miami, Bankers Life Fieldhouse will have an air to it for Game 6 that can’t be described with words — only through goosebumps.

The Pacers will not be playing the Knicks. John Starks won’t be in attendance. Eight points will not be scored in nine seconds. But the Miami Heat will be there. One of the most talented athletes in the history of sports will be there. Whether you hate Lebron James or not, he will be spectacular. And Dwyane Wade will be relentless.

And it’s only fitting that the smug smirk of Pat Riley will likely be somewhere in attendance. One can only hope that the game is on TNT and Reggie Miller is calling it, just to even out the karma. Can anyone else picture Roy Hibbert playing the toughest game of his life? Is anyone else dying to see Lebron James shoot two fourth-quarter free throws for the tie in front of 18,000 screaming Pacer fans? Is anyone else anxious to see if there is a Pacer player willing and able to step up and put the final dagger into the bad guys Heat?

I know I’m looking ahead. But I can’t help it. I know that there is a game tonight. And there are still plenty of stats and offensive schemes to analyze. But right now I can’t seem to focus on PER or true shooting percentages; I’m too focused on the possibility of great basketball drama.

If basketball is not already completely back in Indiana then it will be if the Pacers can win tonight. If you’re a basketball fan and you “miss the old days” (and I know you do) then cancel all plans that would prevent you from watching Game 6 on Thursday.

Because win or lose, it is going to be special.

In the Orlando series, Roy Hibbert became a defensive anchor for the Pacers in the paint. This hasn’t changed against the Heat. He is, however, getting into foul trouble much quicker in the second round. In just four games he already has 16 personal fouls as opposed to 17 in his five games against the Magic. This doesn’t really come as a huge surprise considering the Heat’s ability to draw fouls; they are 2nd in the NBA’s postseason so far, drawing 29.5 a game.

But for the Heat, which were only 8th during the regular season drawing 24.2 a game, this is a significant jump. LeBron seems to have stopped settling for jump shots and is being much more aggressive than he was before the playoffs began. During the regular season he was only getting to the line 8.1 times a games as compared to 11.0 a game in the playoffs.

What this means for Roy Hibbert is that he’s going to need to be extra careful to not pick up fouls early on. In the past, fouling out was something he struggled with fairly consistently until he learnt to jump straight up. Against a team like the Heat, Roy is unlikely to get that benefit of jumping straight up.

In Game 4 when Roy got a personal foul against against Haslem with 2:51 left in the second. I was surprised to find out that it was only his first. I thought that the Pacers would be in great shape because the Pacers’ center would be able to stay on the floor longer than usual. But then Hibbert got another minutes later on what can only be considered a foolish decision to surrender a foul against a driving Dwyane Wade without even going for a shot block.

Then, after the half, Roy picked up another quick two fouls before the five-minute mark in the third quarter. His fourth foul — an offensive charge on Shane Battier — especially was one he has to be careful not to get himself into. Without him protecting the paint, Lebron and D-Wade started to take charge, and by the time Roy re-entered the game, it was (pretty much) too late to slow the pace.

I can’t stress how important Hibbert has been this series or why it’s so important for him to make sure he’s able to stay in the game.

Throughout game four whenever Roy Hibbert has been on the court, the Miami Heat have been outscored by 11.3 points (per 48 min). When he is on the bench, the Heat have scored 18.5 more points (per 48 min).

As if that stat alone doesn’t tell you how important Roy Hibbert is, there are many more.

Lou Amundson and Tyler Hansbrough have been struggling at doing there main jobs this postseason, which is rebounding.In the regular season, Lou grabbed 16.8% of all available rebounds, but that has dropped to 13.8% in his time on the court in the postseason. Tyler’s drop hasn’t been as precipitous, only falling from 11.3% in the regular season to 11.1% in the playoffs. But Hansbrough’s offensive rebounding has falled off a cliff, plummeting from 8.6% in the regular season to 6.0% in the postseason. Lou has been even worse in that regard, falling from an impressive offensive rebounding percentage of 14.1% over 753 regular-season minutes to a measly 7.6% in the playoffs.

To make matters worse, it’s offensive rebounds specifically that they are giving up. When Roy Hibbert has been in the game during the playoffs, the Pacers only give up 11.7 offensive rebounds per 48 minutes. When he sits, that number balloons 17.0.

In Game 4 when Roy Hibbert left the game the Pacers trailed by 1 point. Immediately when Roy left the game, LeBron and D-Wade started driving to the basket without hesitation. “Why would they be quicker to drive with Roy Hibbert off the floor?” you ask. How about because the Heat are shooting 52% from the restricted area (10% less than their avg) when Roy is on the floor compared to 65% when he’s on the bench.

Yeah, I’d say that’s a pretty damn good reason.

In Game 3 Roy Hibbert only had four fouls. His third came only with 3:28 left in the third quarter, and the fourth foul came after the game was already decided. The result? A Tim Duncan-like performance. Interestingly enough, after that game, Roy talked about his relationship with Tim and how he learns a lot from him. Roy said that he models his game after him, and I can definitely see the similarities so far. Aside from the fundamentals and footwork over flash approach they take to the game, they seem to have a similar demeanor (few emotions, cool headed, etc.).

While many might say that Danny Granger is the Pacers’ best offensive scorer or that David West is their most important offensive player, Roy Hibbert is their most important all around player. He is the key to slowing down LeBron and D-Wade; he is they key to defending the paint. Without Roy the Pacers would be struggling mightily in this series. If Roy Hibbert stay out of foul trouble and stay in the game, he has the potential to tip the series in Indiana’s favor.

It has been well documented that LeBron James had a historically good night in Miami’s Game 4 win in Indiana, tallying 40 points 18 rebounds and 9 dimes. Nobody has notched totals that high in all three categories in a Playoff game since Elgin Baylor did so for the Lakers in 1961. But in that game, Los Angeles beat Detroit 120-102 in Game 1 of their opening-round series, so Elgin’s individual impact on the game was slightly less pronounced.

In the Heat’s 101-93 victory, for example, LeBron scored 39.6% of Miami’s points: a number he has eclipsed only twice this season. That, in addition to the fact that nobody has done so in 50 years, makes it not only unlikely that he matches those totals in all three categories, but unlikely that even he scores 40 points in a game again in this series.

The other stat totals are likely to decline as well.

In no game this year has James totaled more than his 27 combined assists and rebounds from yesterday. He also added two blocked shots, a total that he hasn’t surpassed in more than two and a half months months. The lone aspect of the King’s rule in Game 4 that Pacer fans should worry about were his zero three-point attempts. Last night was the first time in 21 games that James, a 33.1% career shooter from behind the arc, had failed to bail out the defense with at least one long ball, and if that continues for the rest of this series, Indiana could be in a bit of trouble. But the odds of all of these trends happening again in a single game is astronomical, and the Pacers still were in the game from start to finish.

So while the the Miami Heat may have won Game 4 in Indianapolis,it would appear that they caught lightning in a bottle.

And it isn’t just LeBron.

Dwayne Wade’s spectacular night was a bit overshadowed by his wing mate, but it is equally unrepeatable. The Heat guard grabbed 9 rebounds in Game 4 after only notching 11 previously in the entire series. He also managed 30 points in the final 31 minutes of this game after scoring 29 points in his previous 74 minutes of action. Six of those points came from behind the arc, matching the number of treys he had hit since April 10th.

In short, while Wade played a great game, a drop off is likely imminent for Game 5.

Udonis Haslem even got into the act, as he more than doubled the point production he had in the previous three games. Coming into action on Sunday, Haslem had scored only 6 points all series, and he surpassed that number with 8 points in the fourth quarter alone. His 14 points came on 5 made field goals, the most shots he had made in nearly 2 months. Some of this can be attributed to the fact that the Pacers, presumably sick of watching LeBron and Wade fillet them on offense, went to a “somebody else beat us” strategy. They changed their pick-and-roll defensive strategy to blitz the ball-handler (either James or Dwyane) with two and this left Haslem time to shoot an at-least-semi-open shot from the mid-range. Unexpectedly compared to his recent ability to shoot jumpers, he knocked them down.

Additionally, the Heat played their best game of the series while the Pacers struggled.

In Game 4, Roy Hibbert — for all intents and purposes the Pacers MVP this postseason — was limited to his lowest offensive rebound and total rebound marks for the series. Foul trouble sidelined him while Wade and James relentlessly attacked the rim. The Pacers as a whole couldn’t make a play on defense when they needed it most, resulting in Miami becoming the first team to eclipse the century mark in points against Indiana during the playoffs. The result was Indiana losing the battle of the paint, which is not surprising given the slashing ability of Wade and James and the foul trouble to the Pacers’ front court. But they were outscored by 18 points in the paint in this game (50-32), the exact total that they have been outscored in the paint this entire series. Adding more futility to the fire was the fact that the Pacers had nearly as many turnovers (15) as assists (17).

The game was ugly, but the loss only counts once.

With a few of the trends reverting back to their norms, Indiana has plenty of hope for Tuesday night.

The Heat’s three-point shooting against the Pacers has been a joke. Collectively, they have shot 5-for-42 (11.9%) over the past three games. This, as much as the loss of Chris Bosh and struggles of Dwyane Wade, has helped Indiana jump out to a 2-1 series lead. Here is the rundown of their long-distance shooting futility. Only Mike Miller can hang his head high.

Game 1: 0-for-6 (0%)
Game 2: 1-for-16 (6.3%)
Game 3: 4-for-20 (20%)

LeBron James: 1-for-11 (9%)
Dwyane Wade: 0-for-4 (0%)
James Jones: 0-for-6 (0%)
Shane Battier: 1-for-9 (11.1%)
Mario Chalmers: 1-for-6 (16.7%)
Mike Miller: 2-for-5 (40%)

Some of this can be attributed to Frank Vogel’s defensive approach. He is actively trying to take away Miami’s role players by staying home on three-point shooters. He has also employed a pick-and-roll defense that ensures that his team won’t have to scramble all over the court to rotate and take away the initial threat. Instead, two guys handle the pick-and-roll attack and everyone else stays home on the shooters.

But as you can see in the video above, this doesn’t explain everything. Because the Heat have missed a ton of wide-open three-pointers in this series. (Though some of the misses in the clip above are certainly well-contested.)

On some level, this is not a sustainable way to win. Miami’s role players are, generally, very good shooters. Here are their percentages from behind the arc during the regular season.

Mike Miller 45.3%
James Jones 40.4%
Mario Chalmers: 38.9%
Shane Battier: 33.9%

Now, obviously that team-wide accuracy is the product of more than just these guys being dead-eye shooters. Miller and Jones certainly are, but the fact is that the attention paid to LeBron, Wade and Bosh has given these guys a ton of open looks. And they have, by and large, knocked them down. Bosh being out changes that dynamic demonstrably. But no matter what the Pacers do defensively, these guys are still going to get some good shots.

The other day on Twitter, somebody (I apologize for forgetting who) joked that LeBron James is a playoff team all by himself. That might be pushing it. But over the past week, I’ve realized something: LeBron James is an offense all by his lonesome.

The only other players in this league that you could even begin to say that about are Rajon Rondo, perhaps Chris Paul and maaaaybe Steve Nash. (Dunno … didn’t watch the Suns enough this year.) This doesn’t mean that Rondo is better than, say Kobe, Derrick Rose or Kevin Durant. It just means that he, like LeBrons, plays in a way that forces everyone on the court to constantly react to whatever he does. The goal of an offense is to move the ball around in such a manner that it creates holes and vulnerabilities in the defense. Teams use ball movement and off-ball screens to get people open in positions they can score.

Well, LeBron and Rondo do this all by themselves, needing only the occasional ball screen. They can move so quickly into any area on the court and force the defense to move. Then, each guy finds open teammates with passes that virtually nobody else can make. Rondo does so with creativity and deception. LeBron does so with historically elite court vision and an unprecedented ability to deliver any pass. He is simply so tall that he has so many passing angles available to him (and can jump another three feet in the air if need be) and has an unreal strength that allows him to throw Brett Favre-speed passes, even when he is off balance or throwing a non-traditional pass.

And this is why the Pacers need to be prepared to weather a three-point barrage today. They can’t completely stop LeBron from finding open teammates behind the arc, and the rate at which Miami is missing open threes cannot continue forever. It could continue for one more game — and if it does, without LeBron and Wade both completely going off individually — the Pacers should cruise to a 3-1 series lead. But Vogel and company need to be prepared for their fortune changing.

Look at the 0:13 mark in the video, for example. LeBron comes off a simple screen, dribbles to the middle of the paint, elevates enough to freeze every Pacer player and delivers a strike to a wide-open Battier in the corner. Shane misses horribly.

To contradict what I wrote just two paragraphs ago, this — actually — might be sustainable.

Just look at how badly Battier has been missing shots in this series, especially the six he blew in Game 3. Seriously, it looks like he is punting the ball at the rim on some of these attempts. He is missing open threes as badly as a human being can while still hitting the rim. That suggests not somebody who is in a mini-slump that could break any quarter as they go 3-for-3 from deep over a six-minute stretch (like James Jones probably could). It looks like a guy whose legs are gone and who has absolutely no idea where the ball is going when it leaves his hands.

Going back to the video, again, look at the shot LeBron gets Mike Miller at the 0:35 mark. Or the one he gets Battier at 1:14. The flat-footed, overhead, cross-court pass he delivers is insane. Shane barely even draws front iron — while shooting a corner three.

And let’s not forget that, despite his struggles, Dwyane Wade is still an amazing play-maker in his own right. He may not be an entire offense by himself, but he is about as close to being one as anyone other than LeBron, Rondo or CP3.

Wade has delivered some ridiculous passes himself in this series. Look at the 1:45 mark, which is notable just for the quick find/swing, and the 1:50 mark, which shows Wade making a laser-guided, 55-foot, one-handed bounce pass in transition would make a 1998 Jason Kidd stand up and clap. The ones at 2:06 and 2:29 aren’t as impressive, but both show just how eager Dwyane is to set up his teammates for an open three.

Will this eagerness continue if everybody keeps missing the open shots they’re handed?

Who knows.

But to me it suggest that, in Game 4, one of two things that hasn’t happened thus far in this series is likely to occur: (1) either Miami’s role players are going to stop missing an unexpectedly large number of open shots or (2) LeBron and Wade are going to stop setting them up for open shots.

In my estimation, neither or those are good news for the Pacers.

So far in the series, the 37 missed threes represent 37 possessions that the Heat have wasted. Wade and especially LeBron are very unselfish players. James has been even reputationally damaging so, in the sense that pundits have continually criticized his willingness to pass to open teammates late in games rather than shoot himself. So it seems conceivable that both these guys continue to pass to open teammates even if they continue to throw up brick after brick after brick.

But at some point, I would expect them both to say “Screw this” and go Mamba, taking every shot.

If they start taking off-balance, forced, contested shots, their overall efficiency will almost certainly drop. But it will just as certainly be better than the 0% success rate the team has enjoyed during the 37 shots that have ended in a missed three. And it’s quite possible that a combined 80 points, even if they come on 40% shooting, by LeBron and Wade is a worst-case scenario for Indiana.

I’m not sure when the pick-and-roll was invented, but it was probably about three weeks after James Naismith hung a peach basket on a pole. It is among the most basic offensive actions a team can run and it has been a staple play of virtually every NBA team since the days of Bob Cousy. The reason: if run properly, it inevitably creates an advantage, at least temporarily, for the offense.

There are many ways to defend the pick-and-roll. None of them work. Again, the offense always gets an advantage and while different defensive strategies can limit that edge in various ways, vulnerabilities remain. So the goal for the two defenders involved in the play is to react to the screen and then recover quickly enough to ensure that both offensive players are corralled into areas where they can do the least damage.

In recent years, the prevailing defensive philosophy used against the pick-and-roll has been to blitz the ball handler and force him to give the ball up. I can’t say exactly when or why this became the norm, but it probably has to do with players like LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook being so adept at going by big men in zero second flat and splitting any soft double teams. Players in the 1980s weren’t doing it like they can.

Regardless of why, things done changed.

Tom Thibodeau is the leader of the new school. As an assistant in Boston and now as a head coach in Chicago, he has implemented this “swarm the pick-and-roll” strategy to help his teams play some of the best defense the sport has ever seen. It is the anti-thesis of passively reacting to what the offensive team wants to accomplish in the pick-and-roll. The defense becomes the aggressor, swarming the man with the ball and rotating help defenders to stop the roll man from catching a pass and scoring at the rim.

Throughout the first three games on their series against the Heat, the Pacers have not been doing this. They have instead done the exact opposite.

As the ball-handler (usually LeBron or Wade and sometimes Mario Chalmers) comes off the screen, the big man does not run at him hard. He is barely even showing at all actually. He is just hanging back and maintaining a pool-cue-length distance in between himself and the guy with the ball.

This accomplishes two things that fundamentally alter how the rest of the play will likely transpire. First, it makes it much harder for the ball-handler — no matter how fast and crafty he is as a penetrator — from getting all the way to the rim. The big man hanging back is essentially adopting a free safety mentality in which he won’t allow anyone to get past him. Of course, the penetrator can just try to go over or around, but especially when the defender is Roy Hibbert … good luck with that. He is 7’2″ and has been in a shot-blocking zone for weeks now.

The other key difference with this strategy is that it only involves four people in the action: the ball-handler, the screener and the two defenders covering them. When you use the Thibodeau-favored approach, you involve five (and really closer to 10) players in the play: the screener, the ball-handler, the two defenders who both blitz the ball-hander after the screen, and a help defender who must contain the roll man. When executed properly, this isn’t a problem. After the ball-handler gives the ball up to one of his open teammates, the defense just has to rotate quickly and precisely to cover up the exposure they created by doubling. With time, practice, smart players and a commitment to effort, Thibodeau and other teams have shown just how effective this can be. But it does always, at least temporarily, leave one man open.

Frank Vogel has no interest in doing that.

The Pacers’ coach is trying to minimize the impact that Miami’s role players have on this series. And since the main way they can change the tide of any game is by hitting threes, he certainly doesn’t want to use a containment strategy against LeBron and Dwyane (which he knows is generally futile anyway) that allows Mike Miller, Shane Battier and James Jones to sway this series.

So his defense is guarding pick-and-rolls two on two. As with any pick-and-roll defense, this still concedes an advantage to Miami. But it is simply one that the Heat — especially Dwayne Wade — have proven incapable of exploiting.

An overwhelming majority of the times that LeBron, Wade and Chalmers have dribbled off a high screen, they have found themselves open. The guy defending them is busy fighting through the screen and the big man, as previously mentioned, is hanging back five feet in “free-safety/rim protection” mode. So they are open. It’s just that they are open in a way that they are unaccustomed to being open. (Well, aside from Chalmers. I think he has been open for about 80% of the minutes he has ever been on an NBA court. Nothing new here for him.)

That has generally not deterred LeBron from being effective. He has still found many ways to score and create for teammates. Most impressively, he has resorted to a little running floater in the lane that I have hardly ever seen him take. It really is amazing. To deal with an unfamiliar way of being defended, he has basically created an entirely new weapon.

And it has been damn effective.

Seriously, we can’t overstate how impressive it is that LeBron has adapted this shot into his repertoire, basically on the fly over the past week. Guys like Mark Jackson, Tony Parker and Derrick Rose spent years perfecting a floater. Since a young age, they have faced the conundrum of being quick enough to get into the paint but sometimes too short to successfully challenge a shot-blocker at the rim. So they create a way to deal with that.

LeBron almost never has this problem.

But now, with the way Roy Hibbert is retreating, LeBron is not merely settling for a longer pull-up. He is continuing to advance the ball and getting a closer shot. A shot he has rarely ever taken. He is basically evolving as a player in a front of our eyes. The video above shows three made floaters. I believe there have been at least two others, if not three or four. It’s possible LeBron has scored more points this series on floaters than Mike Miller and Shane Battier have combined to score at all.

LeBron has also consistently found other ways to ensure that the Heat’s pick-and-roll attack — one of the most vital aspects of Miami’s offense — continues to be productive regardless of how it is defended.

Especially in the fourth quarter of Game 1, LeBron went to the pull-up jumper. If he and the other Heat players can consistently start knocking down that midrange shot, Vogel may have to consider mixing up his approach. But if you watch the whole clip above, you will see that it’s not purely pull-ups. LeBron has been crafty and patient in trying to find areas to score from. He loops around and dribbles into space on one shot. On the dump-off passes, notice how he hesitates right before making a pass, freezing the defender and giving his teammate that one extra half-second to dive into the open area. LeBron looks completely comfortable creating in space and just freelancing until the defense shows a weakness.

And on the last two plays in the clip, he just goes straight freight train, not giving a damn what type of defense the Pacers are trying. “Who Gon Stop Me, Huh” you can basically here him saying. The dunk after blowing by David West actually comes on one of the rare instances since the first half of Game 1 when Indiana sent a hard hedge at him after he came off the screen. But it helps show that LeBron wasn’t about to waste that opportunity.

Instead, he just laid waste to the rim.

In striking, baffling, puzzling contrast, Dwyane Wade has shown no such ability to adapt.

The video above is a horror flick for Heat fans.

Throughout the series, he has been confounded while coming off the screen with the ball. He has turned it over repeatedly, missed pull-up jumpers, missed floaters, missed layups, thrown poor passes and generally just been useless leading the pick-and-roll in all three games.

There really is no good way to explain exactly why such a talented player is having so much trouble making the right decision when he finds himself virtually unguarded dribbling off a screen. I this respect, two Wades are baffled.

But all postseason, including against the Knicks, Dwyane’s jumpshot has seemingly left him altogether. To me, this seems the most likely explanation: He has lost confidence in his jumper so he doesn’t want to settle for a mid-range shot and is now pressing. Instead of taking what he is given, he is forcing his drives further into the lane than Hibbert (or the other Indy retreating big) will permit him to do easily. And as he finds too much resistance, he is making hesitant, poor decisions. In the clip above, just look at how many little hiccups there are in his attack and how indecisive his actions generally look. LeBron’s hesitations, on the other hand, are measured, change-of-pace moves that help create more space to attack. Dwyanes hesitations just look like a guy who is clueless on what to do next.

I don’t want to get into an armchair psychiatrist discussion here (there is already too much of that trying to analyze Dwyane’s way of interacting with his coach), but Wade’s current lack of confidence in his jumper may be compounded by his general nature. LeBron is a guy who thrives most in open space. Dwayne always seems to destroy defenses the most right after he appears to be completely confined. Think about the greatest highlights of Wade’s career. They usually look like a snake striking a mouse. He gets trapped then spins, crosses over, leaps, switches hands and makes a beautiful shot. But it’s all just instincts. There isn’t anything but primal reaction to threat that’s bearing down on him.

On the other hand, LeBron is generally at his best when he has plenty of room. There is a reason there are so many highlights start with him taking four giant dribbles backwards towards half court. He likes to have time and space so he can see everything in front of him and the turn it to ash. Wade may as well be Jean Claude Van Damme fighting blind in Bloodsport. He doesn’t really care where anyone is. He will figure that out and score on them somehow if they get in his way.

Both are Hall of Fame effective. They’re just different.

There is something else that makes Dwyane’s struggles against the Pacers’ pick-and-roll defense strange. Oddly enough, in Game 3, it was Mario Chalmers — not Wade — who became the second Miami player in this series to figure out how to exploit a defense that gives him space to operate in front of a retreating defender.

In this video, Mario uses his floater, pull-up jumper and passing to get Miami very good shots.

Now, I don’t want to go overboard here.

This isn’t to say that both LeBron and Chalmers have cracked the code while Dwyane is just too slow on the uptake to figure it out. Because LeBron and Chalmers are still having a ton of problems in the pick-and-roll. Neither is exactly looking like John Stockton out there. Below, for example, are just a few of the possessions during which LeBron has number-twoed the bed as the attacking ball-handler coming off a screen.

And for further fairness here, just look at how well Dwyane has made decisions in instances when the Pacers have not dropped the screener’s defender back into the paint while guarding the pick-and-roll. (Although, in the clip below, there is one example of Wade scoring on a retreating West. It is a product of him pushing the ball up the court and making an instantaneous decision to attack, however. So to me, it serves as a good example of how he has been at his worst when he has the most time to think about what he is about to do.)

The Pacers hold a 2-1 lead in this series because their defense has been able to contain every Heat player except for LeBron James and, in Game 3, Mario Chalmers. Obviously, there is no way for Miami to win if that continues. And just as obviously, to me at least, this pick-and-roll defense is not something that will continue to baffle Dwyane Wade forever. But he is running really short on time.

If Chris Bosh was still playing in this series, this Pacers’ strategy of defending the pick-and-roll probably wouldn’t exist. Miami would just turn its pick-and-roll game into a pick-and-pop game, and Hibbert (and the other Indy retreating bigs) would be forced to come out to contest his lethal mid-range jumper. That would light up the scoreboard. It wouldn’t work.

But Chris Bosh isn’t here any more.

LeBron has adapted to how that changes his team’s offense.

Dwyane hasn’t.

He is a great player and should be fully capable of doing so. But if he doesn’t in Game 4 and his team loses as a result, it seems a near certainty that the Pacers are headed to the Eastern Conference Finals.

I think the Pacers are attempting to do something fairly unique to LeBron James: punish him physically.

LeBron is, arguably, the most impressive physical specimen on the planet. I doubt there is any other human who could match his combination of size, strength, quickness, and stamina. He can physically dominate just about any player in the NBA. Conventional wisdom has led most teams to shy away from challenging LeBron physically — the way teams do with a less imposing player like Kevin Durant. Last year, Dallas laid a bit of a blueprint by trying to wear LeBron out by forcing him to guard smaller players.

In this series, we see LeBron mainly guarding two players: Danny Granger and David West. In Game 1, the Pacers tried the conventional method of giving the ball to West and letting him try to score on LeBron. This wasn’t incredibly successful. Since then, however, the Pacers have attacked James differently. Instead of throwing the ball to West and watching him work, West is working on LeBron without the ball, seemingly trying to push, shove, bump, and elbow him at every opportunity. If LeBron fronts West, David shoves him out to the three-point line. If he plays behind him, West shoves him as far under the basket as he can go. When a shot goes up, West boxes him out as aggressively as he possibly can. The message is clear: we can’t beat you unless we beat you.

For his part Granger is doing everything in his power to prove to James that he is not afraid. This occasionally borders on destructive silliness, but it’s important for Granger to assert himself. Granger is not David West, but he is a big, strong man, and he’s not being shy about letting LeBron know that.

Roy Hibbert finally learned how to be the biggest man on the floor. 

I’ve been critical of Hibbert in the past, mainly because he’s always come across as soft, both mentally and physically. The best way to defend him has always been to go small because he’s never been able to assert himself against smaller guys. This was obviously not the case last night. For one of the first times in his career, we saw Roy Hibbert realize that he was 4-to-6 inches taller than his opponents and do something about it.

In addition, I think the beginning of the game showed us the blueprint for Roy’s path from above average to pretty freakin’ good: the mid-range game. For years we’ve heard that he is a good shooter (even from Bill Walton), and the assertion seemed to make some sense. He’s a good free-throw shooter. He’s got a soft touch. His form looked pretty good. Yet when he would hoist a mid-range shot in game, the results were often ugly. In the first quarter last night, however, he knocked down every mid-range shot he took (notice I’m refraining from calling them jumpers since I’m not really sure his feet leave the ground). If Roy can add this mid-range shot to his game with Ilgauskas or Nesterovic-esque consistency, he’ll transform from a borderline All-Star into a perennial one.

Balance is the key. 

Tim’s already written better than I ever could about the “team” aspect, but one thing I realized last night is that balance is far more than just having multiple guys scoring points. It really applies to every aspect of the game, and when the Pacers are playing well, they’re playing in balance. Balance is Hill and Collison not dribbling 8-10 seconds off the shot-clock waiting to start the offense. Balance is Hibbert and West not taking 8-10 seconds to set-up a post move. Balance is not Granger or George or Barbosa poised in the triple-threat position watching the clock tick down. Balance is making quick and selfless decisions and actions. It is every player striving to impact the game as much as possible no matter who they are guarding or how many shots their getting. Balance is what will help the Pacers win this series, if this is, in fact, a winnable series.

Ball don’t lie. 

Dwayne Wade should have been suspended. He had no business playing in that game last night.

But I sure am glad that he did.

LeBron would continue his onslaught by dropping another 16 points in the fourth quarter as Miami increasingly took complete control of the game while showing Indiana that it was going to take more than one excellent half of play to knock off the title favorites in their building. Really, LeBron was just amazing in every facet of the game, although some will certainly note that 6 of LeBrons fourth-quarter points came at the line while 4 of Wade’s 6 points in the quarter did. Combined, they shot 10-for-10 from the charity stripe the final period.

Obviously that was a big part of Indiana getting out-scored 25-16 in the fourth.

Of course, had the Pacers made more than 3 of their team’s 8 trips to the free-throw line in the quarter, that certainly would have helped. And ultimately, the second-half free-throw disparity was only 22 to 19 in Miami’s favor. (The Heat shot 10 in the third and 10 in the fourth compared to the Pacers taking 11 in the third and 8 in the fourth.)

So anyone who wants to blame the Pacers second-half performance on Miami getting the benefit of too many calls is just seeing something that isn’t there.

When it comes to the first half, however, the Pacers certainly have a case.

According to a post-game report from ESPN’s Michael Wallace, it was certainly something that most of the team’s players consider a major factor in their loss. They weren’t going to say much about it to the press, however. In fact, ESPN characterized the Pacers’ take as being “loudly mum on foul disparity.”

The postgame theme for Indiana was simple and easy to understand: Keep your mouth shut regarding any feelings on the officiating, and keep your money in your pocket.

They did say a little though despite not wanting to get fined by the league for complaining about the refs, like their coach did even before the series started. Wallace did report Granger saying the following, however.

“I don’t even know if I can comment on that, to tell you the truth,” said Pacers forward Danny Granger, who also struggled through a 1-for-10 shooting effort from the field. “You look down our starting lineup and we had five fouls, five fouls, six fouls, four fouls, four fouls. We all left the game in foul trouble at some point. It changed the way you play. It definitely does. I’ve never been in a situation like that.”

As Granger alludes, foul calls can obviously change the game in ways that don’t have to do solely with scoreboard totals and free points. As Indiana’s shooting guard then power forward then small forward then back-up wing then back-up point guard then starting point guard then center all found themselves in first-half foul trouble, the aggressive, methodical style of basketball they had used to build their lead began to disappear. Coach Frank Vogel was increasingly forced to alter his rotation, and the players began to look tentative and concerned with how the game was being officiated. It seemed as though they changed their play.

Publicly, however, Vogel blamed his team for the problem.

“Our guys are fouling too much,” Vogel said after the game. “We are trying to be aggressive, but you can’t be aggressive and foul unnecessarily. It hurts your rotation.”

I have yet to watch the first half again yet, so I’ll reserve judgement on how just or unjust all the individual foul calls were. For reference, below is the first-half play-by-play with all of each team’s fouls highlighted. In the first quarter, Indiana was whistled for 7 fouls while Miami was called for just 1. Paul George, David West and Granger all ended the period with 2. In the second quarter, Indiana was called for 9 fouls compared to 6 for Miami. (That’s 16 to 7 in Miami’s favor for the half.)

Again, I’ll reserve judgement aside from confirming that the Pacers certainly looked to have gotten jobbed on a few calls. There was some ticky tack stuff that you wouldn’t expect in an NBA game let alone one played in the second round of the playoffs. A few more of the 50/50 calls also seemed to go Miami’s way than one would expect.

None of this is any excuse for coming out and playing the way they did in the second half, of course, but it does make Indiana’s frustration understandable.

More than anything, however, the last sentence in Granger’s quote is what stood out to me: “I’ve never been in a situation like that.”

This reminded me of something Granger said after Game 4 of the Magic series, during which the Pacers lost a 19-point lead in the final 8 minutes of regulation before eventually beating a bad team in overtime. About the raucous crowd in the Amway Center, Danny said the following: “It was a hostile environment — one of the craziest environments I’ve played in.”

Even though the 28-year-old Pacers’ captain is a seven-year NBA veteran, he has neither played in many hostile playoff environments nor played through foul trouble in the playoffs.

This is revealing. And it’s not just him. Lest we forget, many of this team’s key players have very little playoff experience.

This was the first game Granger, Hibbert, George and Collison have ever played in the second round. And while West, George Hill and Leandro Barbosa had already played 29, 25 and 69 playoff games, respectively, they have only played six together (including yesterday). The fact remains that this team, as a collective, and these players, in their current roles on this squad, are very inexperienced in the playoffs.

Foul trouble can be a large impediment to winning. So can surrendering points at the line. And frustration is definitely a challenge that can make even the best player falter.

But in the NBA playoffs, failing to withstand adversity has historically been the biggest hurdle to winning. Well, that and playing against great players. Yesterday, the Pacers faced both. And while LeBron and Wade will continue to be on the Heat’s roster and the way the game is officiated will remain out of their control, they can — in fact must — improve their reaction.

Last night, their reaction was to let the game get away from them.

Sure, the refs didn’t help.

But the guys in the zebra costumes had very little to do with the Pacers shooting 11-for-37 (29.7%) in the second half. It’s difficult to overcome foul trouble and make up points lost at the free-throw line. It is nearly impossible, however, to beat the Heat with an offensive performance like that for the final 24 minutes of the game.

(Click for larger version. LeBron .GIF above from SB Nation via Welcome to Loud City)

The other day, Pacers coach Frank Vogel said the Heat were a bunch of flopping floppers who flop more than anyone has ever flopped before. Basically. Chris Tomasson on Fox Sports reported the following.

“It’ll be very interesting to see how the referees officiate the series and how much flopping they reward,” Vogel told the media today “…Every drive to the basket they have guys not making a play on the ball. But sliding in front of drivers. Often times they’re falling down even before contact is even being made. It’ll be interesting to see how the series is officiated.”

Now, the NBA has lightened Vogel’s pockets 15 large for giving the refs pre-series advice on how to do their job. ”Indiana Pacers head coach Frank Vogel has been fined $15,000 for his comments about how the referees should officiate the Pacers’ upcoming series with the Heat,” said the league in a statement.

Alan Hahn of the Knicks’ MSG Network had this reaction to the fine.

NBA fined Pacers coach Frank Vogel $15K for saying exactly what we’re all thinking.

Zing.

Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Dwyane Wade, Lebron James and Kobe Bryant combined for 134 points last night. They each also went to sleep with one more loss than they had when they woke up with yesterday morning. They all did their whole “superstar” thing, but it wasn’t enough. They ran into three teams likely to make the playoffs that, for what they may lack in superstars, make up for with all-around basketball.

The Houston Rockets beat the Los Angeles Lakers 112-108 and had six players score in double figures. The Memphis Grizzlies easily beat the Miami Heat 97-82 with an even more impressive seven players score in double figures. And of course, the Indiana Pacers outplayed the Oklahoma City Thunder by accumulating more rebounds, more assists, more steals, fewer turnovers and, in case you didn’t know, more points on their way to a 103-98 win.

I don’t want to generalize too much, but it is easy to see the similarities between the Pacers, Rockets and Grizzlies. They don’t rely on anyone; they rely on everyone.

Last night, they all had young point guards who played very well against their championship contender foes. Mike Conley had 15 points, 4 assists and 3 steals while shooting 63%. Gordon Dragic had 26 points, 11 assists, 4 rebounds and 3 steals while shooting a respectable 42%. And Darren Collison had 11 points and 3 assists while shooting 43% and playing well down the stretch. When we hear about the current “Golden Era of Point Guards,” we never hear about these three guys. But all three of them are young and already doing what they need to do to help lead their team to wins.

But even more than young point guards, all three teams thrived off of efficient play from their big men last night. Roy Hibbert set the tone for the entire game (despite what SportsCenter’s Top Ten may tell you) with his big time double-double of 21 points and 12 rebounds to go along with his 50% shooting. Thanks for coming out, Kendrick Perkins. You’re 6 points and 7 rebounds were pretty cute, I guess. The Pacers also got an efficient 14 points from David West.

Or how about the Rockets’ Luis Scola dropping 25 points off 59% shooting on Pau Gasol (who only scored 14)? Pair that with his teammate, the ageless one, Marcus Camby, bringing home 12 points and 11 rebounds and you have a nightmare for opposing big men. Such a nightmare in fact, that Andrew Bynum went ahead and had himself thrown out of the game. Yet again. Nice work, Andrew.

Oh, and the Grizzlies just brought Zach Randolph off the bench for 14 points and 14 rebounds. Z-Bo made up for Marc Gasol’s “meager” 10 points and 9 rebounds. Thank God the Heat got Ronny Turiaf’s contributions of 2 points and a rebound. Way to go, buddy.

It also helps that all three of these no-star squads bring their own flare to the table. It helps, for example, when you have someone like Danny Granger trying to do their best Kevin Durant impersonation like the Pacers do. Or when you have someone like Rudy Gay doing their best Lebron James impersonation like the Grizzlies do. Or when you shoot nearly 60% from three-point land like the Rockets did last night.

When you have to carry the team on your back for 66 games in 123 days, your back just might start to hurt. But if you can share the load with six or seven other players than hopefully you will keep your strength. Last year’s Grizzlies showed the world what a complete team firing on all cylinders can do.

The fact all the uber-stars mentioned in the opening sentence played as well as they did goes to show why their teams are among the favorites to win the title. But that’s not what last night’s games proved. These upsets proved that the Rockets, Grizzlies and Pacers are threats in every definition of the word.