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Luther Head

By the Numbers: Recapping the Preseason

by Tim Donahue on October 27, 2009 at 9:13 am

The NBA preseason is what it is. It’s slightly more meaningful than the NFL preseason, and slightly less meaningful than whether or not Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow. That doesn’t mean that we can’t throw out some numbers to provide some things to watch when the games actually count.

3 – 4

The Pacers record during the preseason might be the biggest foreshadowing for the season. It extrapolates to 35 wins over an 82-game season, and that sounds about right to me.

.429

This is the opponents’ field goal percentage for the preseason, which was 8th out of 30 teams. This is a point of emphasis for Coach O’Brien, whose pace of play makes the points allowed stat somewhat misleading. This is about two full percentage points below the league average.

105.2

The Pacers allowed almost 4 fewer points per 100 during the preseason. Despite this and the OppFG% figures, Jim O’Brien was still unsatisfied with the teams’ defensive performance, explaining it away as the defenses being ahead of the offenses early. It seems that there’s good reason, because:

24th

Despite the improvement over last year, the Pacers defensive rating ranked 24th in the preseason. The average points per 100 possessions during the preseason were about 103, compared to 108 for the 2009 regular season.

101.4

The Pacers offensive output per 100 possessions was horrendous. In their four losses, Indiana averaged less than 94 points per 100 and shot a paltry 41% from the floor.

40.1

That would be the number of free throws per game shot by Pacer opponents. The league average was 31, and nobody else had more than 39.

60

Points the Pacers were outscored by at the free throw line. They were only outscored by 28 points overall.

27.7 & .335

The number of three-point attempts per game in the preseason and the success rate (or lack thereof). This is almost 7 more attempts per game than last season, but almost 4 full percentage points lower.

50%

Portion of Danny Granger’s field goal attempts taken from beyond the arc. That’s too high.

7.7 vs. 8.2

Solomon Jones’ rebounds per 36 minutes as compared to his personal fouls per 36 minutes. That’s not real encouraging.

24.9

Number of minutes per night that T-Murda (Troy Murphy) needed to average 12.7 points an 9.7 rebounds. Only shot 38% from three, though. Slacker.

6.2

Fouls per 36 minutes committed by Roy Hibbert, which sounds ugly until you compare it to his 7.7 pace last year. Somewhat more encouraging is that he did it with replacement refs that were calling almost 25% more fouls per game than were whistled last season. This is important, because …

13.6, 5.4, 3.6 & 24

Roy’s points, rebounds, blocks and minutes per night in the preseason. If he can do this when it matters, well, boys and girls, we have ourselves a center.

1.4 to 1

TJ Ford’s shot-to-assist ratio, which is down about 40% from last season. He did struggle with turnovers (4 per game), but it does look like he’s at least trying to heed O’Brien’s call for him to give up the ball.

4.1 to 1

AJ Price’s shot-to-assist ratio. The rookie second rounder spent much of the preseason looking more like an undersized ‘2′ than any possible future answer at the point.

4

The number of games missed by each of Jeff Foster and Luther Head due to lingering injuries.

Zero

This could mean a lot of things. It could mean the number of wins the impressive victories against Denver and Houston will net us in the regular season. It could represent the number of losses that will result from the ugly defeats to Denver and Orlando.

However, the most meaningful thing related to zero to come out of the preseason for the Pacers is this: number of games played by Mike Dunleavy and first-round draft pick Tyler Hansbrough.

Punxsutawney Phil

It’s neck and neck as to whether the Pacers’ preseason performance will tell us more about the upcoming season than this fella could.

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The Summer Losses: Jarrett Jack

by Jared Wade on October 24, 2009 at 7:29 pm

[This is the second in a seven-part series on the Pacers free agent losses and acquisitions this summer. Find the others here: Part I: Marquis Daniels]

Jarrett Jack was only in Indy for one year, but he had a large impact. In fact, earlier this summer, Indy Cornrows named Jarrett the second greatest “single-season Pacer” of all time. It’s hard to argue against that claim.

It wasn’t so much that Jack was this transcendent player who fit seamlessly with the team and uplifted the franchise or anything. Far from it. But he was the right fit at the perfect time.

Initially, fans disappointed by the 2008 Draft day trade that sent the Pacers first round pick (the 19-year-old athletic wonder and University of Arizona standout guard Jerryd Bayless) to the Trailblazers for Brandon Rush (who was generally viewed as a potentially solid pro, but a player with a much lower ceiling than Bayless) saw Jarrett Jack as merely a throw-in to that deal. As an NBA point guard, Jack had never set himself apart from even a questionable NBA starter like Steve Blake in Portland, so what great value could he possibly be?

As it turned out he brought exactly that to Indiana: great value.

Less of a traditional point guard and more of an undersized two, Jarrett found himself in a situation suited for him to shine. Mike Dunleavy’s knee injury proved much more serious than initially thought, and less than a month into the season, it was already becoming clear that newly acquired point guard TJ Ford, who joined the roster just days before Jack in the pre-draft trade that shipped Jermaine O’Neal to Toronto, was probably not going to shape up to be the assist machine or consistent shooter that people such as myself believed he would be in Jim O’Brien’s offense. Don’t get me wrong; TJ was adequate, but once it became clear that Dunleavy was facing an uphill batttle to return to action, the back court desperately needed another capable ball-handler who could create some offense.

Enter Jarrett Jack.

Jack is by no means a big-time NBA player. But he is aggressive and has a bulldog fearlessness that can alternately invigorate an offense and frustrate fans — sometimes during the same possession. Along with Jarrett’s tenacity in the open court and his confidence going to the hoop came head-scratching turnovers. Foolish jump passers were frequent and erratic, guarded jump shots came early in the shot clock. But on a team full of tentative ball-handlers and players who preferred shooting step-back threes in space over driving to the hole or getting to the foul line, Jack’s persona provided cojones.

Eventually, those qualities seemed to be what allowed Jarrett to supplant TJ in the starting point guard role. After the team dropped 11 of 13 games from November 21 – December 1 (a losing streak during which TJ shot 41.3% from the floor) it became clear that a change — any change — was needed. Given the personnel available, it’s not like coach O’Brien had a ton of options. In short order, Jack began getting the nod at point. And when TJ began missing games with injury, the point guard spot seemed to be Jack’s position to lose.

But, once again, Jarrett Jack is not really a point guard. So before long, he did lose forfeit the car keys back to TJ. A five-game losing streak in March, however, led to Jack once again taking over the starting role in this ongoing point guard ping pong routine. And neither option was bringing beautiful basketball to the table. But both did have their moments — particularly in the clutch — and it would be hard for anyone aside from Brandon Rush to argue that the most potent lineup that the 08-09 Pacers could put on the court was one that featured both TJ and Jack in the back court, where, depending on your outlook, either (1) they both played point guard at the same time, or (2) neither did.

Looking at the numbers, it would seem that the Pacers have also lost something significant quantitatively. Here is how Jack ranked among all the players on the Pacers roster, with the numbers in parentheses being his totals in each category.

Jarrett Jack in 2008-09

Traditional
PPG – 6th (13.1)
APG – 2nd (4.1)
A/TO – 3rd (1.84)

Advanced*
PER – 8th (13.1)
TS% – 5th (.554)
ORtg – 9th (107)
DRtg – 11th (111)
WS – 5th (4.1)
OWS – 4th (2.3)
DWS – 4th (1.8)

* PER – Player Efficiency Rating | TS% – True Shooting Percentage | ORtg – Offensive Rating | DRtg – Defensive Rating | WS – Win Shares | OWS – Offensive Win Shares | DWS – Defensive Win Shares

The Pacers will certainly miss Jack’s ability to fill in when TJ is in going through one of his funks — whether it lasts for a few minutes or a few weeks. Earl Waston will bring some nice stability to the fold during those times — something that Jack was not really capable of — but he obviously can not bring the same versatility or penetrating ability that Jarrett did.

Still, as a player, Jack’s game has many holes. He can score, but he’s not a scorer. He can run an offense, but he’s not a floor general. He can make plays, but he’s not a play-maker. He can guard people, but he can’t stop anybody. Ultimately, if he is a starter on your team — particularly a starter at point guard — your team is flawed. And as we all know, the Pacers are flawed. While the offseason did (theoretically) address a few of those defensive failings, it did little to replace Jack’s offensive aggression. Dahntay Jones should bring a similar bulldog mentality to the defense, but he just doesn’t have the offensive talent for that to translate to the other end of the floor. And the Pacers other two perimeter acquisitions, Luther Head and Earl Watson, are relatively passive players in comparison to Jarrett.

What Jarrett Jack brought to the team is definitely going to be difficult to replace. And no matter how much you like his game, that reality probably says more about the talent deficiency in the Pacers back court than it does about Jarrett himself.

Up next: Rasho Nesterovic.

Lamar Odom can attest to to Jack’s fiery demeanor.

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The Summer Losses: Marquis Daniels

by Jared Wade on October 22, 2009 at 3:54 pm

Over the next week, we’re going to break down exactly what the Pacers have lost and gained in the free agent moves that went down this summer in two series of cleverly named posts “The Summer Losses” and “The Summer Gains.” See, while you were out enjoying barbecues, water skis and strange, erotic journeys from Milan to Minsk, we were toiling away in the 8.9 Lab watching film of Rasho Nesterovic and analyzing the statistical variation in Earl Watson’s assist-to-turnover ratio. (Ed note: I did neither of those things.)

Without need for any extracurricular ado, let’s kick things off with Marquis Daniels.

marquis daniels

Marquis sells some shoes for Yums.

Marquis joined the Pacers in the summer of 2006, coming to the team in a trade for Austin Croshere. While Austin had been a fan favorite for his timely threes and overall quality play throughout the Pacers Finals run in 2000, his bloated contract had, along with the deals given to Jonathan Bender, Jamaal Tinsley and Jermaine O’Neal, hamstrung front office flexibility, leaving many to view the trade as Indiana getting a quality, young, athletic swing man in exchange for an overpaid player who never lived up to expectations.

Marquis fit in well immediately, providing some much-needed scoring, slashing and ball-handling for the second unit while also playing above average defense on the other end. Unfortunately, he was soon injured — something that would become a hallmark of Marquis’ time in Indianapolis.

Year two was more productive as he remained healthy enough to play in a career-high 74 games, which is 12 more than his second-best total of 62 with the Mavs. Even though he was physically able to play more, he didn’t seem to be as effective as he was during his first year as a Pacer. It would be disingenuous to call his play lethargic, because he almost always played hard and attacked the paint whether he was penetrating or cutting through the lane. But Marquis always had an aura of disinterest surrounding him on the court and a very mechanical approach to most plays. I’m not sure how exactly you can seem as disinterested as Marquis while also being as active as he was, but he managed.

Ultimately, he was one of the worst-shooting guards in the NBA and now playing under Coach Jim O’Brien, who runs one of the most jumpshot-happy offenses in the NBA. Under Rick Carlisle’s system, Marquis’ slashing and perimeter activity allowed him to find seams in the defense as opposing players rotated to double Jermaine O’Neal or stop penetration from Jamaal Tinsley and Stephen Jackson. But with Jimmy’s offense more geared toward maintaining proper spacing on the perimeter and a revamped roster that had few people able to force the defense to rotate by driving or posting up, Marquis was forced to just stand around on the wing more often. And when he found himself wide-open catching a swing pass behind the three-point line, he was beholden to take the shot for the sake of the offense — even when neither he nor Pacer fans wanted to see another flat jumper clang off the outside of the rim. The result: a player who had never taken more than 36 threes in a season during his pro career took 102 in his first year under O’Brien, and that doesn’t even include all the long jumpers he took from a foot inside the line.

In year three, Marquis seemed to shake some of that funk and get back to finding a way to be his old self again; he was again looking like the dynamic, jack-of-all-trades reserve player that a lot of NBA scouts and fans thought he could become. Just as everything was comint together, however, injuries derailed what had been a pretty good first half of the season, during which Quis had recorded 13.3 ppg on 45.7% shooting in just 30 minutes per night. But after the All-Star break, he would only play in 15 more of the team’s 28 remaining games.

And just like that, his tenure in Indiana was over. The team quickly declined a contract option to retain his services for another season and, after the possibility of mutually beneficial sign-and-trade with Boston proved futile, Danny Ainge signed Marquis as a free agent outright.

During a media conference call yesterday, ESPN analyst Jon Barry was discussing what type of player the Celtics had acquired and described Marquis as somewhat of a man without a position. According to Barry, “he’s not a shooting guard because he can’t shoot.” Nor is he a point guard because even though he is a serviceable ball-handler who can push the ball up the court and handle it capably on the perimeter, he really doesn’t have the ability to run an NBA offense. And at a wiry 6′6″, Barry doesn’t believe that Marquis has the frame nor the bulk to really match up with most small forwards.

While Quis may not have a discernible position, he does have one elite NBA skill; the man can finish in the paint. He does not excel off the dribble getting to the rim, although he can take it off the bounce from three-point line to the cup on occasion. More often, however, he will either penetrate into the paint right below the foul line or catch the ball there while slashing and then slither up through traffic and hit a six-foot leaner. His ability to make short jumpers in the paint is uncanny.

And with the Celtics offense in need of some scoring off the bench, yet not reliant on Marquis to do to much, Celtics fans should be happy to see him scoring around the rim, pushing the ball up the court and finally giving the team a guy who can serve as a backup point guard to Rondo if necessary. Marquis can never be a primary distributor, but a combination of Pierce and him on the perimeter will give them enough secondary ball-handlers to let Rajon catch a breather here and there.

But, honestly, who cares about Boston?

Getting back to what the Pacers have lost, let’s look at the numbers.

Marquis Daniels’ 2008-09 PER of 12.88 was the highest total he posted during his three-year Pacer stint, following last year’s 11.65 (12th best on that year’s roster) and the previous year’s 11.67 (which was 13th best on the team that year). Still, that 2008-09 number made him only the 38th best NBA shooting guard last year when ranked by PER.

For some perspective, here are the guys closest to him:

36. Rashard McCants – 13.03 [he's not currently in the league]
37. Tony Allen – 12.96 [the guy who Ainge was trying to unload in a S&T for Quis]
38. Marquis Daniels – 12.88
39. Sasha Vujacic - 12.65 [good shooter, but have you seen his haircut?]
40. Bobby Jackson – 12.40 [a 36-year-old shooter who shot 30.5% from three last year]

And as far as comparing Marquis’ value to that of his teammates, here is how his numbers stacked up against the others on the Pacers roster in a couple of key statistical categories during his Indy years. (Stat – Rank – Total)

Marquis Daniels Stats in 2008-09

Traditional
PPG – 5th (13.6)
APG – 7th (2.1)
RPG – 4th (4.6)

Advanced*
PER – 10th (12.8)
TS% – 13th (49.1%)
ORtg – 12th (99)
DRtg – 10th (110)
WS – 9th (1.3)
OWS – 12th (-0.1)
DWS – 6th (1.4)

Marquis Daniels Stats in 2007-08

Traditional
PPG – 8th (8.2)
APG – 8th (1.9)
RPG – 7th (2.9)

Advanced*
PER – 12th (11.6)
TS% – 12th (.487)
ORtg – 12th (95)
DRtg – 6th (107)
WS – 8th (1.0)
OWS – 16th (-0.8)
DWS – 5th (1.7)

Marquis Daniels Stats in 2006-07

Traditional
PPG – 9th (7.1)
APG – 11th (1.3 )
RPG – 13th (1.8)

Advanced*
PER – 13th (11.6)
TS% – 13th (.506)
ORtg – 15th (97)
DRtg – 15th (108)
WS – 14th (0.6)
OWS – 15th (-0.1)
DWS – 10th (0.7)

* PER – Player Efficiency Rating | TS% – True Shooting Percentage | ORtg – Offensive Rating | DRtg – Defensive Rating | WS – Win Shares | OWS – Offensive Win Shares | DWS – Defensive Win Shares

Going through the numbers and contemplating my view of how his game suits the Pacers needs, I don’t see losing Marquis as a huge blow to Indiana.

If Mike Dunleavy can’t bounce back to form, the loss of a good ball-handling guard will hurt. But the Pacers back court should be no worse for wear, assuming that Mike can at least play as many games as Quis did last year and factoring in the acquisition of Luther Head, who is admittedly not as dynamic as Daniels but is probably a better fit in O’Brien’s offense given his shooting ability. And defensively, Dahntay Jones should make up for any shortfalls on the other end of the court. It would be nice if Larry Bird could find a mad scientist to combine Head’s offense with Dahntay’s defense, but even if that laboratory experiment remains impossible, I don’t think the Pacers will face a huge drop off in any area of the game based on the fact that Marquis Daniels is gone.

The loss of Jarrett Jack, however, will be much more difficult to replace — but we’ll save that discussion for tomorrow.

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