When Lance Stephenson was drafted by the Indiana Pacers in the second round back in 2010, many expected it to be a steal since he was a star in high school nicknamed Born Ready. However, mediocre play and maturity issues have surrounded Stephenson’s NBA career so far.

However, Stephenson hasn’t had a full chance to develop yet and he could be a quality player for Indiana off the bench. Mike Wells of the Indianapolis Star writes that Stephenson could be the sixth man of the team next year.

“I’ll be surprised if Leandro Barbosa, who had that role after being acquired from Toronto in March, is re-signed. Stephenson has continued to mature on and off the court. … Don’t hand Stephenson the job, but give him a shot at it because it’s time to see if he’s ready to handle being the sixth man.”

Stephenson does have potential and has shown some signs of it this season when he was able to get playing time. He will have to do a lot more, however, to overcome the main highlight for Stephenson’s pro career: throwing up a choke sign at the Heat’s bench during a series the Pacers lost.

At halftime, it was hard to tell how to feel about the game. The Pacers had weathered the storm, leading 53-51, despite 12 turnovers, Mike Miller hitting three three-points, and Dwyane Wade being, well…Dwyane Wade.  However, they’d shot almost 59% and still couldn’t maintain separation.

Not sanguine, as it turns out.

It was a late third quarter fizzle – leading to a 10-point Miami margin heading into the fourth – that doomed the Pacers. Larry Bird’s players didn’t roll over this time, and they fought it back to 5 at one point and 6 at another. But, much to their chagrin, Wade and LeBron James always had an answer. The pair scored 19 of Miami’s 24 in the quarter, and combined for 69 points on the night.

Over the last three games, James and Wade averaged 33 points each. LeBron also averaged 11 rebounds and 8 assists, while Wade contributed 7 rebounds and almost 4 assists. The cold, hard truth is that LeBron and Wade – by themselves – are probably the third or best team in the league.

And they were the better team tonight. Congratulations to the Heat, who move on to face the winner of Philly-Boston series for the Eastern Conference crown. Congratulations to the Pacers, who had a great season end too soon, and now get to figure out how to take the next step.

More on this game in the hours and days to come. For now, here is how each guy played individually tonight. Agree? Disagree? Express your thoughts below in the comments or yell at me (@8pts9secs) or Tim (@TimDonahue8p9s) on Twitter.

	David West, PF 41 MIN | 10-16 FG | 5 REB | 2 AST | 3 TO | 24 PTS Unreal early in the game, and a warrior throughout, West left it all on the floor for his adopted franchise tonight.
	Danny Granger, 38 MIN | 6-14 FG | 2-2 FT | 4 REB | 4 AST | 15 PTS Scored 9 first quarter points and gave 38 minutes, but once the adrenaline wore off, he was clearly hobbled. I watched him closely in the first quarter, and he clearly would have to gather himself to make plays. After a while, the tank ran dry.
	Roy Hibbert, C 40 MIN | 5-8 FG | 2-2 FT | 8 REB | 4 TO | 12 PTS Prototypical Roy – enough flashes to make the casual observer think he should get a lot more touches, but not enough tools to actually get them. No question, the Pacers can scheme and pass better, but Hibbert also needs to get better at holding position, at catching the ball and being strong with it, and most importantly, he has to become something better than catastrophic as the screener in the high PnR.
	George Hill, SG 35 MIN | 7-13 FG | 3-5 FT | 2 REB | 5 AST | 18 PTS When Hill missed first one, then two of his three free throws after drawing contact on a three-point attempt, I tweeted, “feels harbinger-ish.” 18 points and 5 assists is a nice line, but he really isn’t a point guard. He loses track of what the offense is supposed to be doing too much.
	Paul George, 43 MIN | 4-10 FG | 10 REB | 2 AST | 3 TO | 11 PTS No way around it, Paul George spent most of the series and most of this game as a disaster offensively, and we could spend days discussing his travails running the fast break. But, he’s young, and he’s a good kid. Bizarrely, if you want encouragement, watch him guarding Wade from tonight’s game. It will make you feel better about Paul, and also make you appreciate just how ungodly unstoppable Wade was.

	Dahntay Jones, SG 4 MIN | 0-0 FG | 3-3 FT | 3 PTS Only one rotation as the starting unit played 31 minutes together.
	Leandro Barbosa, SG 8 MIN | 0-1 FG | 1 REB | 3 TO | 0 PTS Almost certainly the Blur’s final game as a Pacer. They needed him to give them some points, but he had only turnovers. He was a great add for the price, and he really helped this team down the stretch and in the first round. But he just didn’t help against Miami.
	Louis Amundson, C 3 MIN | 1-1 FG | 1 REB | 0 AST | 2 PTS Perhaps his last game as a Pacer, though I would imagine TPTB are interested in bringing him back for the right price.
	Tyler Hansbrough, 9 MIN | 0-4 FG | 3-4 FT | 5 REB | 1 AST | 3 PTS For a couple minutes, it was Buckaroo Banzai – terror on the offensive glass, bundle of energy. But then, it was gone. He missed all four of his shots, and really produced nothing after the first quarter. Some very hard questions ahead for Tyler.
	Darren Collison, 16 MIN | 1-3 FG | 2-2 FT | 1 AST | 5 PTS After playing so well – and being so important – in the Orlando series, there just wasn’t a role for DC against Miami. To small to guard Wade, with no opposing point guard to pressure, his defense wandered, and so did his game. It bears re-watching to see how much of his struggles were cause by the rest of the bench being so bad, and how much of the bench’s struggles were on him.

And here we sit.

So heading into tonight’s game, here are my thoughts on a few things.

Danny Has To Be Effective

In my opinion, the Pacers’ chances begin with this, and they’ll end with it if he’s limited. The Pacers need him to be able to hit shots, and they need him to be able to chase LeBron. But mostly, they just need him.

When Granger went down on Tuesday night, the Pacers staggered. While it’s true they hadn’t played well up to that point, Indiana was still within a bucket when it happened. Also, they probably hadn’t played as poorly as they did in the first half of Game 2 — which they ended up winning. For all the flak Danny gets, he’s crucial to this team. Put simply, they are significantly less talented without him. But more that that they are incomplete. This illustrates a point that I’ve been trying (and failing) to make all season: the Pacers are actually more susceptible to injury, generally, because they rely on more players.

Consider this: For Miami to be a good (read: playoff team), they basically just need LeBron to be healthy and productive. To be a threat to win the Eastern Conference title and perhaps even an NBA title, they need LeBron and one of either Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh to be healthy and productive. (I’m not sure that it matters which.) If they have all three, then they are favorites in the East, and at least even favorite versus anyone in the West for the title. In effect, as long as they don’t lose LeBron, they are better than most teams.

For Indiana to play at this level, however, they pretty much need their top six players (Granger, David West, Roy Hibbert, George Hill, Paul George, and Darren Collison) to play well. In addition, they probably need a good contribution from Leandro Barbosa, and they need the rest of the bench (Hansbrough, Amundson, Jones) to at least tread water. While they have more bodies that help, that’s also more pain for the whole when any one is either hurt or unproductive.

Further, they are built this way. This probably goes a long way towards explaining their propensity for what fellow contributor Jeremy Comstock called “vomit inducing losses.” They lean on each other so much, that when one falls, they all fall. And while they’re all important, Danny Granger probably bears more weight in this foundation than any player, with the possible exception of David West.

Does that mean that the Pacers would have won Tuesday, or will win tonight, if Danny were healthy? No. It just means that I can’t see them winning without him being a meaningful contributor.

The Suspensions Are Irrelevant

There was a bunch of hubbub about the flagrant fouls on Tuesday night, and the NBA came out with further punishment yesterday. None of the players involved are of any significant meaning to the series.

Let’s recap.

Udonis Haslem suspended for Game 6 - At one point in his career, the loss of Haslem would have been crippling. I don’t think that’s true any more. Though some will point to his Game 4 performance, I will argue that while his points hurt, the Pacers were beaten by the outrageous performances of James and Wade. James and Wade are the difference. Haslem is not.

Tyler Hansbrough upgraded to Flagrant 2, will play in Game 6  – I’m sure many Pacer fans will argue, but I don’t see Tyler as a factor. He will play, and because of that, he has the chance to make a difference. I just don’ t think he can or will. After scoring 22 points on 10-for-19 shooting in his playoff debut, Tyler has averaged 5.6 points on 31% shooting over his last 14 playoff games. This playoffs, the Pacers are a net 10 points per 100 worse with Tyler on the floor, and their overall rebounding percentage drops from 54.3% to 47.6%. I see his reprieve as no real cause for celebration.

Dexter Pittman suspended for three (3) games -  Really. Does anybody care?

Were these penalties appropriate? My opinion isn’t of any consequence, which is why it’s so easy to give it. I’d say Haslem’s appropriate, Tyler’s too light, and Pittman’s way too light.

My take on the fouls committed by both Haslem and Hansbrough is that they were defacto punches. Haslem has no real grounds for defense, and the fact that he caught Tyler in the shoulder instead of the face is really just happenstance. Given the size and motion of the players, the force involved in the blow was probably greater than any punch that I — or most of the people watching — could throw. It was intentional, and it was clearly retaliation. Plus, Miami had probably used up their get out of jail free card when Wade was not suspended for Game 3.

Hansbrough’s situation is fuzzier, and many don’t feel it warrants a suspension. That’s fine. His play was much closer to an actual basketball play, and he did pretty clearly get the ball. However, for me, that’s a pretty thin fig leaf. The full chopping down motion is the killer for me. It, too was unnecessary, and it wasn’t even a good basketball play. Again, you have a 6-foot-9-inch, 250-lb man swinging his arm with full force. Anybody care to guess what kind of damage that’s capable of doing? You can’t swing like that on a basketball court. You just can’t.

Pittman? Well, Pittman himself is unimportant in virtually every aspect. His sole purpose for being seems to be simply to keep the ground underneath him from flying into the air. However, the concept of a meaningless scrub headhunting on the basketball court isn’t.  Seems to me that it would have been a great opportunity to send a message — pour encourager les autres — to all those guys who think they have nothing to lose by doing something like that, no, really, you do. But … that probably would get resistance from the NBPA, and there’s really nothing that will prevent someone from being absolutely committed to stupidity.

S-O-F-T is a S-T-A-T-E of M-I-N-D

Being involved in sports — as a participant, coach, or spectator — is in no small part an exercise in immersing yourself in a slurry made up of testosterone and macho bullshit. None of us are immune, and if we were all honest, we’d all admit that we like that part of it — a lot. So, naturally, when Larry Bird called his team “soft,” then helped Jared out by spelling it for him, it created quite the buzz.

These comments are viewed largely in the context of the flagrant fouls discussed above, and many wonder if the Pacer prez wants to see some retaliation. Given the nature of sports — how things were occasionally handled when Bird played — it’s easy to get there. While that may be want Bird meant, I actually took it completely differently.

I viewed it from the perspective of the way the Pacers had played the game mentally — especially after Granger left. The team staggered, and was timid and indecisive in almost every move. They were stagnant, made sloppy passes, sloppy cuts, sloppy rotations defensively. They didn’t even create any 50/50 balls, let alone get them.

After the Game 1 loss to Orlando, I spoke about the Pacers’ need to attack. In a podcast this weekend for the Heartland Summer Series, I said that the Pacers and Vogel always focused on doing what they do and being who they are, as opposed to wins or losses. That didn’t happen Tuesday. They stopped being the Pacers. Some of that was driven by Danny leaving them incomplete, but I can understand Bird’s disappointment when it certainly appeared that his team simply packed their bags in the third quarter, and waited for the game to end.

It’s important to note that the difference between S-O-F-T and S-T-R-O-N-G has little to do with cheap shots or retaliation. It has everything to do with maintaining composure and focus, and playing with force. More than anything else, I took Bird’s words to be telling his players, “You’re better than this.”

Because they are.

Points in the Paint

A big subject for the series has been the Pacers’ size advantage with Roy Hibbert and David West, and there’s no doubt those two have been key in the wins. A key metric in this discussion has been points in the paint (PitP), and there are some things to keep in mind about that.

First, as Charles Barkley pointed out on Tuesday’s pre-game show, “points in the paint” means points scored in the paint, regardless of the action. Therefore, fast break dunks and layups count as PitP. On Tuesday, Miami outscored the Pacers in the paint by 20, which corresponded pretty directly to their 22-2 advantage in fast break points.

Second, Miami — while “smaller” — was one of the best interior defensive teams in the league. I discussed this in the spiderwebs, but it’s also evident in the fact that they allowed the second fewest PitP in the league this season, at around 36.6 per game. The are extremely adept at fronting the post while bullying the passer, and that’s very difficult for a team like Indiana to defeat.

Third, Miami is very good at scoring PitP — finishing 8th in the NBA this season. Both LeBron James (758) and Dwyane Wade (572) had more PitP than either Roy Hibbert (564) or David West (424). While some of that is purely a function of the fact that James and Wade are higher volume scorers, it’s also a good reminder that coming into the paint is at least as big a factor in PitP as being in the paint.

Finally, Indiana — though big — is only a middle-of-the-road PitP team, ranking 13th at about 41.2 per game. Only about 42% of their points come from the paint, largely because their offense is predicated on probing the defense with a post pass or pick-and-roll/backdown, then reversing the ball to catch the defense rotating. The Pacer offense works best when the “second side” is getting a lot of action. While that translates to good shots, not all are in the paint.

In the Orlando series, I said Indy needed to win these categories: PitP and fastbreak points. The mind set I outlined is still necessary, but when we measure, we need to see the Pacers keep pace with Miami in these categories. If they can, then I don’t believe Miami will be able to separate from Indiana, and the Pacers will have a much better shot at a win.

What’s Gonna Happen Tonight?

The short answer is, “I don’t know.” However, as much as it pains me to write this, I think the Pacers’ season ends tonight.

For whatever else you think of them, Miami is an easy team to fear. If James and Wade deliver strong games, then I think it’s just a question of the final score. As I type this — with no inside knowledge whatsoever — I am not expecting Danny Granger to be effective tonight, and I think that will be too much to overcome.

Still, that’s an intellectual assessment. The Pacers are capable of winning this game — regardless of Danny’s condition — and I still have hope that they will. The series? Well, get it to a Game 7 and then we’ll worry about it.

For tonight, I say the Pacers need to be who they have proven to be, and see what happens.

You may not have heard, but there were three flagrant fouls in Game 5 between the Pacers and Heat. Surprisingly, nobody was ejected. At least two and easily three guys could have been tossed. But they weren’t.

As the league is wont to do, however, it reviewed the infractions and Stu Jackson — the NBA’s Wyatt Earp basically — has handed out some expected suspensions: Udonis Haslem is out for one game for his vicious two-arm smash on Tyler Hansbrough, and Game 3 starter Dexter Pittman will miss three games (no that anyone but him, since it’s without pay, cares) for throwing a Lex Lugar forearm at Lance Stephenson’s defenseless collar bone.

Hansbrough, who clubbed Dwyane Wade on the dome and then raked his eye for good measure, got nothing. His foul, which was originally deemed a “flagrant 1,” was upgraded to a more severe “flagrant 2″ but this is just semantics. It won’t affect his status for Game 6 on Thursday in Indianapolis. He will play.

This is obviously an advantage for the Pacers. Haslem hasn’t had a great season but it was arguably (well, LeBron argued it anyway; I wouldn’t) his four jumpers in the fourth quarter of Game 4 that ensured the Heat won to even up the series at 2-2. With neither he nor Bosh on the court, the Pacers will no longer need to pay any mind to a pick-and-pop possibility after ball screens are set for LeBron or Dwyane Wade. This, of course, won’t much matter if, as in Game 5, Indiana can’t keep Miami from scoring in transition. The Heat out-scored the Pacers 22-2 in transition.

Moreover, Danny Granger’s status for Game 6 remains uncertain. He skipped practice today and plans to try to go tomorrow. In fact, he said his foot would have to fall off for him not to at least try to play. His gung-ho attitude notwithstanding, if his ankle doesn’t allow him to perform near, say, 80% of his normal level, it is going to be very hard for the Pacers to beat a Heat team that has two of the planet’s best players playing at their absolute best. In short, no Haslem and no useful Granger swings the advantage decidedly back into Miami’s court.

For more on my opinions on the fouls (I agree with Stu Jackson penalty-wise), read this.

And if you want to hear me talk on Illinois radio about it (from this morning before the suspensions were decided), listen to the audio below. (via WGEM)

I wasn’t there and don’t even know exactly what Larry Bird means. So this is presented without comment. (image above via Mike Wells tweet)

In his story on Bird’s comments, Indianapolis Star Pacers beat writer added the following.

Those are the strongest words I’ve ever heard Bird say about his team – good or bad – in my seven-plus years of covering the Pacers.

And he ended his story well by framing what this might mean for the Pacers going into Game 6.

Bird has spoken. Now we’ll see if his players respond to being publicly embarrassed – on the court and by their president – or if they’ll curl up in the fetal position in Game 6 on Thursday.

Game 6 is on Thursday at 8:00 pm EST.

Quite the game. Not much to analyze. Pacers looked like they should have gotten blown out early but somehow stuck around. Then did get blown out badly in what was one of the worst offensive nights I can remember from this team all season. Not exactly what you want to be doing in a near-must-win Game 5 probably.

There were a ton of flagrant fouls and we’ll get to that later, I guess, since we probably have to. But most unfortunately, Danny Granger sprained his ankle, left the game and is now day-to-day heading into Game 6. After the game he said his foot would have to “fall off” for him to not “at least try to play” on Thursday, so we can expect him in uniform — “he’ll just take a bunch of pain medication.” Whether he can be effective remains to be seen. David West also sprained his knee but he could have returned the the game. Had, ya know, they not been down 20 in the third quarter.

More on this game in the hours and days to come. For now, here is how each guy played individually tonight. Agree? Disagree? Express your thoughts below in the comments or yell at me (@8pts9secs) or Tim (@TimDonahue8p9s) on Twitter.

	David West, PF 32 MIN | 5-13 FG | 0-0 FT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 10 PTS Missed his first 5 shots, some which came on good looks, and helped set the tone for an offense that couldn’t have been much less productive.And don’t be fooled by the not-egregiously bad line. 2 made shots came after it was basically over. He was 3-for-11 in meaningful time with few boards while getting handled by Shane Battier.
	Danny Granger, SF 20 MIN | 3-6 FG | 1-2 FT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 10 PTS His 3s were all the Pacers had going for them early. The injury looked like it really hobbled him. Certainly won’t be 100% for Game 6, which doesn’t bode well.
	Roy Hibbert, C 28 MIN | 3-10 FG | 1-2 FT | 12 REB | 1 AST | 8 PTS Hard to be mad when he’s that uninvolved, but he really doesn’t establish great position or make himself a good target. Terrible entry passers are the larger problem and he of course needs the ball more. But need to not miss layups you do get and generally be more efficient.
	George Hill, SG 28 MIN | 3-9 FG | 0-0 FT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 6 PTS What would ya say ya do here?
	Paul George, SG 28 MIN | 3-9 FG | 4-5 FT | 4 REB | 3 AST | 11 PTS Same as West with the final line not being gross thing. He was. Very much so. Played some decent half-court defense early but had two ugly turnovers early and only made 1 of his first 7 shots. Defense is his job, first and foremost, but he needs to do something. And if he isn’t going to initiate offense in the half-court, he at least can’t blow good transition chances.

	Dahntay Jones, SG 24 MIN | 1-8 FG | 2-2 FT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 5 PTS MVP probably, which is hilarious because look at his line. Played a bunch of good one-on-one defense of Dwyane though and stuck a corner three back when points still mattered. (5 of him missed shots were in the 4th.)
	Leandro Barbosa, SG 18 MIN | 3-10 FG | 3 REB | 2 AST | 6 PTS LVP probably. The sequence when he heaved up a 28-footer and then took a 15-foot finger roll aptly summer up his night. Or perhaps there was the time he iso’d Mike Miller, who can barely walk anyway and was only wearing one shoe, and settled for a 3. Take your pick.
	Louis Amundson, C 13 MIN | 3-6 FG | 0-2 FT | 3 REB | 0 AST | 6 PTS Seemed to play well enough but didn’t have much impact on the game other than that one dunk.
	A.J. Price, G 3 MIN | 1-1 FG | 0-0 FT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 2 PTS Garbage time.
	Tyler Hansbrough, 17 MIN | 2-6 FG | 4-4 FT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 8 PTS Almost took Wade’s eye out and helped ramp the animosity of this series up a notch. So there’s that. Hit a nice jumper. Was fine overall in his first-half sting if not overwhelmingly helpful. Nearly lost his left arm to a vicious Thor attack from Udonis Haslem.
	Darren Collison, PG 21 MIN | 2-6 FG | 4-4 FT | 0 REB | 2 AST | 8 PTS Missed a layup that was pretty ugly to watch. But certainly added some life to the effort and tried to push the ball. It didn’t work, per se, mind you, but he gave it a go.
	Jeff Pendergraph, F 3 MIN | 1-1 FG | 0-0 FT | 0 REB | 0 AST | 2 PTS Garbage time.
	Lance Stephenson, SG 6 MIN | 0-4 FG | 1-2 FT | 1 AST | 1 PTS May have gotten a concussion.

As noted by ESPN Stats & Info, it’s no surprise that Miami has won both of the games so far in this series that have included foul trouble for Hibbert.

In the second half of Game 1, Hibbert sat for 11 minutes, 25 seconds spanning the third and fourth quarters, which is one reason the Heat outscored the Pacers by 14 points on field goals less than five feet from the basket in the second half.

Overall in Game 1, the Heat outscored the Pacers, 40-22, inside of five feet from the hoop.

In Game 4, the Pacers were minus-8 with Hibbert off the court, and minus-5 in rebound differential. With Hibbert on the bench from the 5:03 left in the third quarter until 6:11 left in the fourth, the Heat made seven field goals — including six within 12 feet of the basket (three each by Dwyane Wade and LeBron James).

Even without an inside scorer, the Heat have attacked the basket when Hibbert has been out of the game.

During the regular season, the Heat shot 62.3 percent on field goals less than 5 feet from the basket, which ranked fourth in the NBA (league average was 59.5).

With Hibbert on the floor, Miami’s field goal percentage inside of 5 feet drops to 51.7; however, with Hibbert on the bench, that percentage shoots up to 64.6. What’s more, the Heat attempt more than 42 percent of their shots inside of 5 feet when Hibbert is off the court, compared to less than 30 percent when Hibbert is playing.

Read Avi’s piece for a more detailed analysis, but those numbers make it pretty obvious that the Pacers need Roy Hibbert in the paint if they plan to have their best chance to win Game 5.

After four games the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat are dead even. Now the Pacers have to attempt to brush off historic performances from Lebron James and Dwyane Wade and travel to Miami for Game 5.

Along with every other sports outlet in the country, we have analyzed this series by looking at both teams offensive and defensive play calls and nitpicked every type of statistic. But maybe it’s time to take a step back. Maybe it’s time to take a look at the larger narrative.

November 19th, 2004. The infamous Malice in the Palace. Some people claim that is the day professional basketball died in Indiana. Those people were perhaps being over-dramatic. But things did change that day. An organization lost its respectability. “Basketball Paradise” lost its context in regard to the Pacers and they turned into just another small market team.

July 8th, 2010. The Decision. Some people claim that this was the day that professional basketball died everywhere. Those people were definitely being over-dramatic. I think the Dallas Mavericks proved that last year. But Lebron James changed the game. Whether it’s fair or unfair, the Miami Heat became the bad guys. I’m assuming that you remember this. It’s no that coincidence that it strongly resembles this. The Heat are probably the most covered team in sports of the past twenty years. They also might be the most hated.

For a few brief moments in June when Dirk Nowitzki hoisted that trophy over his head, it felt like the Heat experiment was a failure. But like most box office movies where the bad guy loses in the end, he will come back stronger in the sequel. And coming into this NBA season nearly every pundit predicted that the Miami Heat would walk away champions.

On July 8th, 201o, the Miami Heat found the magic seeds to get a championship. Throw them in the ground and watch them grow instantly. Keep hydrated with an Udonis Haslem or two, maybe a Mario Chalmers, and make sure you hire an Erik Spoelstra to watch over them, and you will get your desired results in 12 to 24 months.

Meanwhile, Larry Bird had been staring at what felt like a demolition site, plowed over by a flying drink and whatever thoughts fly around in the mind of the man known in those days as Ron Artest. Larry Legend went with the only option in front of him: he started rebuilding, brick by brick, draft pick by draft pick. Grab a Danny Granger for a foundation, draft a Roy Hibbert for support. Acquire a Darren Collison or George Hill to tie the place together. Maybe even add a Barbosa to provide a little flair. And sure enough it started to look right.

The Indiana Pacers have an excellent team. But hardly anyone knows it. They get approximately zero national coverage. The Miami Heat, on the other hand, can’t make a ham sandwich without breaking national news.

And unfortunately we have to talk about the attendance. The Miami Heat have sold out a fair amount of games. But according to my (perhaps biased) eyes, they are sold out by a lot of late arrivals and early departures. Indiana, though, had the second-worst attendance in the NBA this season. While that has improved mightily for the playoffs — which have feature commendable raucous sold-out crowds at The Fieldhouse — it certainly merits a little bit of criticism. But perhaps, the Indiana faithful were just a little gun-shy the past couple years. It’s nice to have a team full of talented, high-character guys, but would it amount to much? Danny Granger isn’t Reggie Miller so what’s the point? It seems like the team has great chemistry, but are they tough enough to exceed expectations?

Maybe because of November 19th, 2004 — and all the police blotter coverage that followed — the fans were hurt. Hurt in the most unique way. Maybe they just were in need of a little motivation. Maybe they needed a push. Maybe they needed a reminder that these are not the Pacers of the 90s, but they are also not the Pacers of the mid-2000s. They are simply the 2012 Pacers.

If anything could assure everyone in Pacer Nation of that thought it would be a Game 6 in Indiana with a chance at eliminating the Heat. If the Pacers can win Game 5 in Miami, Bankers Life Fieldhouse will have an air to it for Game 6 that can’t be described with words — only through goosebumps.

The Pacers will not be playing the Knicks. John Starks won’t be in attendance. Eight points will not be scored in nine seconds. But the Miami Heat will be there. One of the most talented athletes in the history of sports will be there. Whether you hate Lebron James or not, he will be spectacular. And Dwyane Wade will be relentless.

And it’s only fitting that the smug smirk of Pat Riley will likely be somewhere in attendance. One can only hope that the game is on TNT and Reggie Miller is calling it, just to even out the karma. Can anyone else picture Roy Hibbert playing the toughest game of his life? Is anyone else dying to see Lebron James shoot two fourth-quarter free throws for the tie in front of 18,000 screaming Pacer fans? Is anyone else anxious to see if there is a Pacer player willing and able to step up and put the final dagger into the bad guys Heat?

I know I’m looking ahead. But I can’t help it. I know that there is a game tonight. And there are still plenty of stats and offensive schemes to analyze. But right now I can’t seem to focus on PER or true shooting percentages; I’m too focused on the possibility of great basketball drama.

If basketball is not already completely back in Indiana then it will be if the Pacers can win tonight. If you’re a basketball fan and you “miss the old days” (and I know you do) then cancel all plans that would prevent you from watching Game 6 on Thursday.

Because win or lose, it is going to be special.

In the Orlando series, Roy Hibbert became a defensive anchor for the Pacers in the paint. This hasn’t changed against the Heat. He is, however, getting into foul trouble much quicker in the second round. In just four games he already has 16 personal fouls as opposed to 17 in his five games against the Magic. This doesn’t really come as a huge surprise considering the Heat’s ability to draw fouls; they are 2nd in the NBA’s postseason so far, drawing 29.5 a game.

But for the Heat, which were only 8th during the regular season drawing 24.2 a game, this is a significant jump. LeBron seems to have stopped settling for jump shots and is being much more aggressive than he was before the playoffs began. During the regular season he was only getting to the line 8.1 times a games as compared to 11.0 a game in the playoffs.

What this means for Roy Hibbert is that he’s going to need to be extra careful to not pick up fouls early on. In the past, fouling out was something he struggled with fairly consistently until he learnt to jump straight up. Against a team like the Heat, Roy is unlikely to get that benefit of jumping straight up.

In Game 4 when Roy got a personal foul against against Haslem with 2:51 left in the second. I was surprised to find out that it was only his first. I thought that the Pacers would be in great shape because the Pacers’ center would be able to stay on the floor longer than usual. But then Hibbert got another minutes later on what can only be considered a foolish decision to surrender a foul against a driving Dwyane Wade without even going for a shot block.

Then, after the half, Roy picked up another quick two fouls before the five-minute mark in the third quarter. His fourth foul — an offensive charge on Shane Battier — especially was one he has to be careful not to get himself into. Without him protecting the paint, Lebron and D-Wade started to take charge, and by the time Roy re-entered the game, it was (pretty much) too late to slow the pace.

I can’t stress how important Hibbert has been this series or why it’s so important for him to make sure he’s able to stay in the game.

Throughout game four whenever Roy Hibbert has been on the court, the Miami Heat have been outscored by 11.3 points (per 48 min). When he is on the bench, the Heat have scored 18.5 more points (per 48 min).

As if that stat alone doesn’t tell you how important Roy Hibbert is, there are many more.

Lou Amundson and Tyler Hansbrough have been struggling at doing there main jobs this postseason, which is rebounding.In the regular season, Lou grabbed 16.8% of all available rebounds, but that has dropped to 13.8% in his time on the court in the postseason. Tyler’s drop hasn’t been as precipitous, only falling from 11.3% in the regular season to 11.1% in the playoffs. But Hansbrough’s offensive rebounding has falled off a cliff, plummeting from 8.6% in the regular season to 6.0% in the postseason. Lou has been even worse in that regard, falling from an impressive offensive rebounding percentage of 14.1% over 753 regular-season minutes to a measly 7.6% in the playoffs.

To make matters worse, it’s offensive rebounds specifically that they are giving up. When Roy Hibbert has been in the game during the playoffs, the Pacers only give up 11.7 offensive rebounds per 48 minutes. When he sits, that number balloons 17.0.

In Game 4 when Roy Hibbert left the game the Pacers trailed by 1 point. Immediately when Roy left the game, LeBron and D-Wade started driving to the basket without hesitation. “Why would they be quicker to drive with Roy Hibbert off the floor?” you ask. How about because the Heat are shooting 52% from the restricted area (10% less than their avg) when Roy is on the floor compared to 65% when he’s on the bench.

Yeah, I’d say that’s a pretty damn good reason.

In Game 3 Roy Hibbert only had four fouls. His third came only with 3:28 left in the third quarter, and the fourth foul came after the game was already decided. The result? A Tim Duncan-like performance. Interestingly enough, after that game, Roy talked about his relationship with Tim and how he learns a lot from him. Roy said that he models his game after him, and I can definitely see the similarities so far. Aside from the fundamentals and footwork over flash approach they take to the game, they seem to have a similar demeanor (few emotions, cool headed, etc.).

While many might say that Danny Granger is the Pacers’ best offensive scorer or that David West is their most important offensive player, Roy Hibbert is their most important all around player. He is the key to slowing down LeBron and D-Wade; he is they key to defending the paint. Without Roy the Pacers would be struggling mightily in this series. If Roy Hibbert stay out of foul trouble and stay in the game, he has the potential to tip the series in Indiana’s favor.

But a look at the total series statistics shows us a few surprising tidbits. Basketball is a game played 48 minutes at a time so we cannot look too much into these statistics, but we have four full games of evidence to analyze now and they do give us a good look at who is giving consistently good performances.

16 Rebounds (Chalmers) vs. 8 rebounds (Hansbrough)

Four games into this series, Mario Chalmers has doubled Tyler Hansbrough up in rebounds grabbed. To be fair, Chalmers has played more than double the minutes of Tyler, but does that really remove all the shock? Eight rebounds in nearly 52 minutes over four games? Two rebounds per game? One rebound every six-and-a-half minutes? Hansbrough has yet to have the momentum-swinging impact on a game in this series that earned him the nickname Psycho-T.

20-for-57 FGs (Granger)

Danny Granger has been aggressive at times and made some big buckets in this series. He has played with great effort and has had the task of guarding Lebron James on defense. Also, no one is going to question how much he wants to win this series and he has made 7 of his last 15 three-pointers. But the fact of the matter is that he is shooting 35% (eFG% of 42.1%) through four games and is certainly not making up for that with only 8 free throws attempted. (In the regular season, he shot 41.2% with an eFG% of 48.1% while averaging 4.7 free throws per game). This might be a troubling reminder of how dangerous it can be when your best player relies on low-percentage shots to score.

93 points (Granger + George) vs 210 points (Lebron + Wade)

This one might not be so surprising. I don’t think anyone expected George and Granger to match the scoring of Wade and James. But has it really seemed that lopsided for the series? Didn’t it seem like Granger and George were playing nice defense on Wade and James while also providing a nice scoring punch of their own? Sure, Game Four’s 70 points from Wade and James might skew this a little, but keep in mind it also factors in a 5 point game from Wade in Game 3.

123 minutes (Hill) vs 73 minutes (Collison)

Should it really be that one-sided? Collison was the starter for most of the season, does it make sense to minimize his role this much? I understand that you are rarely going to give two point guards equal minutes, but if you are going to be using the “stick with the hot hand” approach, wouldn’t Collison have more minutes in this series? Collison’s weakness in this series is that he can only guard Mario Chalmers due to his size. Since Chalmers starts wouldn’t it make sense to start Collison so that Hill could come in when the Heat bring in a bigger lineup?

22 assists (James) vs 21 assists (Collison + Hill)

Yikes.

55:18 minutes (Turiaf)

This is the Eastern Conference semifinals. Ronny Turiaf is a major piece to this Miami Heat team. That may be a credit to the impact of Wade and James, but it is also an obvious reminder that without Chris Bosh this Miami team can be beat. The Heat might have two unbelievable talents, but the Pacers have more talent two through ten.

49 rebounds (Hibbert) vs 49 rebounds (Lebron)

If you don’t think Lebron James is the best basketball player in the world then you are wrong. The frightening truth is that James can do most things on the basketball court better than any player on the Pacers.

0 players shooting > 50% (IND) vs 3 players shooting > 50% (MIA)

Those three players for Miami? Joel Anthony, Chris Bosh and Ronny Turiaf. None of them have more than 13 FG attempts. What does that mean? I’m not quite sure. But it sure seems like, all things considered, the best shooters in this series cannot make their shots. The chances of that changing for both teams in Game 5 are slim. But it just goes to show that if one team gets hot in any given game, they might very well be able to run away with a victory.