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Mike Kurylo

Hey Everybody – Listen to Me Talk

by Jared Wade on November 30, 2009 at 4:03 pm · 3 comments

I did a few podcasts last week that may be worth your time if you’re into that sort of thing.

The first one, Episode 3 of my podcast Talking About Practice, is actually not Pacer-related at all, per se, but it does get into some subject matter that we have been and will continue talking about around these parts. Essentially, what it comes down to is efficiency.

See, basketball is a simple sport. On each possession, the offense tries to score. And the defense tries to stop them for doing that. The more times the offense succeeds, the better chances they have to win. So they are trying to maximize those possessions and use them as, wait for it, efficiently as possible. The defense’s goal would thus be the inverse.

Basically, we're talking about a whole new level of looking at the game and trying to figure out things like when (in the shot clock), where (specifically on the floor) and why (players do what they do to make) offenses succeed.

No team has embraced this concept as much as the Houston Rockets and they have gone to great lengths to determine how NBA offenses can become more efficient and, conversely, how defenses can prevent them from doing this. Shane Battier is the poster child for this concept, and he has used the vast array of film, game charting data and advanced statistical analysis that the Rockets franchise — and most NBA franchises these days — now rigorously gather and crunch to significantly enhance the way he plays defense.

Basically, we’re talking about a whole new level of looking at the game and trying to figure out things like when (in the shot clock), where (specifically on the floor) and why (players do what they do to make) offenses succeed. Only it’s all much, much more complex than that and is so advanced that private game-charting/video companies like Synergy Sports and even teams like the Rockets really won’t even tell the outside world about everything they are doing. It’s too proprietary and too confidential.

Us mere mortals discuss this efficiency stuff in terms of eFG% and Defensive Ratings. And that’s what we do around here to some degree — while also fully realizing that these new stats are just tools to help us explain some of the stuff that happens on the court and not some sort of Holy Grail. In the grand scheme of things, even these more-refined resources are still too-blunt tools incapable of replacing the softer analysis that can only come from actually watching the game in depth.

So, all that was a long way of saying that me and Chris Ballard, who is a columnist for Sports Illustrated columnist and wrote the wonderful book The Art of a Beautiful Game talked a lot about this stuff. We start off talking about some of the other stuff in his book, but get into all that Rocket/Battier stuff about 20ish minutes in.

(You can also subscribe to Talking About Practice via iTunes and listen that way. Ratings/reviews appreciated.)

Talking About Practice

The second podcast was the latest edition of The 8th Seed. This is something me and seven other NBA bloggers have been doing since this summer. Most of it is irreverent jokes and genuine potty-mouth tomfoolery. But there is some actual basketball insight in there. The Pacers-relevant part about comes at the 64-minute mark and while I’d love for you to listen to the whole thing, that 5 minutes of me talking Pacers is pretty much my current feelings on the team. And I’m planning to explore the whole Dahntay Jones dynamic I get into there more in-depth in a column here whenever I find the time.

Related Links

If you’re into the Rockets/Battier/Ballard stuff, here’s a few other things you should familiarize yourself with. I’m still trying to figure out how to and to what degree we should include some of this stuff into the Pacers discussion at 8p9s. I mean, I don’t want to lose you guys who think all this stuff is stupid. But some of it is definitely valuable. So I suggest you check out a few of these things below. (Although Ballard’s book is just about the game in general aside from one chapter.)

  • First up is Ballard’s book. The Art of the a Beautiful Game is really, really good and is probably the best, cheap present you could buy for yourself or any hoops head you know this holiday season. I did an extended review you can read here. Also, here’s an excerpt from his chapter on rebounding about Jeff Foster that you might like.

Jeff Foster, the Pacers’ relentless (and offensively challenged) center, had an unusual incentive. As a teenager at Madison High in San Antonio, his coach told the then thin and tall Foster that he wasn’t getting enough rebounds. So Jeff’s father, Stephen, made a deal with him. Instead of an allowance, he’d be paid for his board work: $1 for every rebound he got in a game, $2 for each one above 10 and $3 after 15. Soon enough, he was cleaning his dad out. Though, considering Jeff’s future, it was a bargain: In 2008-09, Foster made $6.175 million playing for the Pacers, or $12,156 for each of his 508 boards.

  • The one article you need to read about advanced game charting/stats is Moneyball author Michael Lewis’ New York Times Magazine piece on Battier from last Spring. This article essentially took this whole discussion and exposed an underground world of hoops analysis to the common fan. I actually preferred Ballard’s chapter, but that is kind of like saying I prefer ice cream to birthday cake — both are excellent.
  • Next up comes this NBA.com piece about how things like Synergy Sports, 82games.com, Basketball-Reference and all the other, similarly ambitioned endeavors are changing the sport. This stuff just gets crazier and more advanced by the day.

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Game #4 Preview: Need Win, Will Travel

by Jared Wade on November 4, 2009 at 5:20 pm · 1 comment

Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks
Madison Square Garden
New York, New York
7:30 PM EST

Pacers vs. Wizards
1-3 Record 2-3
98.7 (26th) Offensive Rating 108.8 (10th)
106.4 (14th) Defensive Rating 108.1 (19th)
0.471 (19th) eFG% 0.494 (15th)
0.483 (13th) Opponent's eFG% 0.476 (11th)
97.8 (3rd) Pace 90.6 (24th)

Glossary: Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | eFG% | Pace

The Pacers need a win. Badly.

There has never been a must-win game in the history of November basketball, so let’s not get carried away, but leaguewide, Indiana is joined by only New Jersey and Golden State in the winless category. More importantly, the team has looked inept on both ends of the floor.

Defensively, few people outside of the confines of Conseco Fieldhouse realistically thought the team was going to be anything better than below-average. Even offensively, it’s not like the team was a juggernaut of efficiency or anything last season — they just took a lot of shots and, thus, made a lot of shots.

But regardless of the 2008-09 team’s middling offensive talent, they certainly put points on the board. Indy’s 105.1 ppg was good for 5th best in the league (albeit at only 108.1 points per 100 possessions, which was 18th best in the NBA). Through three games this season, however, they have dropped that average down to 95.0 ppg (21st in the NBA) and an utterly embarrassing 97.9 points per 100 possessions.

A lot of this is sample size, obviously.

We’re still only talking about three games (against three 2008-09 playoff teams nonetheless) and much of the meager scoring output can be attributed to just plain old bad shooting. Let’s not let Danny Granger off the hook completely here because a true upper echelon basketball player would put the ball on the deck and get to the hoop/foul line when he is struggling, but Danny has missed a ton of threes that he normally makes. At 3/13 and 2/10 from behind the arc the last two games, sure, he’s taking to many threes. But three-point shooting is his primary weapon out there.

Fortunately, the Knicks have been fairly bad themselves so far in the early goings. Aside from Danilo Gallinari (who leads the NBA in three-point makes and takes) shooting an eye-popping 45.2% from three and David Lee doing all the David Lee stuff he does while posting a Shaq-in-his-primesque 62.8% from the field, there’s not a ton for Coach D’Antoni to get excited about.

Still, I haven’t personally seen much of the Knicks yet this year aside from the opening night blow-out they received from the Heat. So for a little more perspective on what the Pacers can expect this evening, I reached out to Mike Kurylo of KnickerBlogger fame. He’s one of the better stat-oriented guys when it comes to discussing the league at large and knows Indy’s New York rivals as well as anyone.

Here’s what he has to say. Per usual, I brought the Qs, Mike dropped the As.

knickerblogger

The Knicks  are 1-3 after getting blown out by Miami and Philly, dropping a close one to Charlotte and, most recently, beating up on Chris Paul and the Hornets. How has the team looked overall and what prompted that 40-point fourth quarter outburst that help you take down New Orleans?

Overall the Knicks have looked poor. In each of the first three games they’ve had 20+ point deficits. One of the changes against New Orleans was to insert Gallinari into the lineup. His hot three-point shooting opened the inside up for David Lee and Chris Duhon to run the pick & roll. In the first three games, teams were able to collapse in the middle, which made the team more one dimensional. I documented this on my blog today, showing how opponents are giving the Knicks the outside shot (namely Wilson Chandler) in lieu of letting them score in the paint.

Much like last year, Coach D’Antoni has his boys chucking threes and putting up points. Why the terrible 28.8% on threes? Is it just missing open looks like the Pacers 27.0%? Or something else? The personnel is just about the same, and Danilo Gallinari, who is leading the NBA in attempts, has hit 45% of his shots from behind the arc?

The team has had some open looks, but haven’t been able to get them to fall. Another problem is a lack of a true shooting guard. Wilson Chandler is not a strong outside shooter. Meanwhile, Larry Hughes and Nate Robinson are more effective as slashers. New York runs an offense that relies on shooting as one main component, and they lack a shooting guard.

What’s up with Nate Robinson? His numbers are gross?

Nate really hasn’t seen a lot of minutes — he’s just a tad above Jared Jeffries in minutes per game. I think he’ll be his normal productive self once he gets back from injury and once he sees some real court time.

How are the rest of the guys looking? Our old friend Al Harrington had 42 the other night but has been pretty bad otherwise. Wilson Chandler is shooting badly as well. Other than David Lee and Danilo is there anyone else who has been playing well that Pacer fans should be worried about tonight?

Al Harrington scores, but doesn’t contribute much else. Danilo Gallinari looks pretty good. Not only is he lighting it up from outside, but he’s shown good court vision and some ability to take his guy off the dribble — although I expect him to be inconsistent at this young age. David is great at scoring in the paint and grabbing rebounds but has been pretty bad defensively. Darko has shown good passing in the half court set, but his defense at the 5 is less than advertised, and he hasn’t gotten a lot of burn. Larry Hughes is playing out of his mind, but you know that has to stop. And be prepared for the Jared Jeffries three-point onslaught!

Looking at the defensive stats, the Knicks are currently 28th in defensive efficiency while the Pacers are 26th. Any predictions on final score? Will there be stop all night?

No prediction, but I don’t expect a lot of defense from either team.

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