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Rick Carlisle

Start-ling

by Tim Donahue on January 21, 2010 at 10:00 pm · 1 comment

The big hub-bub in the Pacer world today is whether or not O’Brien is going to change the line up again.  He has commented that the “Big Lineup” (read: Murph & Hibbert together) is too slow, can’t defend and can’t run.  This, of course, is true, but any lineup this team plays is going to have a whole bunch of “can’ts.”  In any case, the Pacer fan base is now expecting either Murphy or Hibbert to be sent to the bench.

Actually, most are expecting it to be Roy, given O’Brien’s penchant for veterans.  To me, it doesn’t particularly matter, just as long as Hibbert gets his minutes.  Roy has actually produced more off the bench then as a starter: 13.0 & 6.0 on 50% shooting vs. 10.7 & 5.8 on 49% shooting.

In fact, I think it basically comes down to whether O’Brien wants to lose with a center the fanbase likes (Roy) or one the fanbase hates (Troy).

But…that’s neither here nor there.  The real point of this little missive is to give a quick follow up to a comment made by Hayden in the recap for the Suns Game.

Hey, can you shed some light on why Jim O’Brien changes his starting line-up once every second game or so? Is there a bet on? Is he going for some kind of record? Has he got Memento-style anterograde amnesia? Questions that deserve answers.

Well, there’s a litany of things that can pointed out:

  • Granger, Dunleavy, Murphy, Foster, and Hansbrough have all missed significant time.
  • T. J. Ford and Brandon Rush have regressed.  (TJ may have actually devolved.)
  • Most of the other players on this team (Dahntay, Solo, Watson, Head) simply aren’t starting quality players.

Mostly, however, this is just a bad team with an increasingly desperate coach.  His security blankets from last year (Foster, Granger, Murphy and Jack) are either underperforming or gone altogether.

But, whatever the reasons, real or imagined, he’s piling up some impressive numbers.  If he actually changes the lineup, there’s a pretty good chance that it will be the 17th different starting lineup this season.  Through January 19, only three teams (Golden State, Sacramento and Washington) have had that many different starting units:

2010 Starting Lineups

As a second way of looking, I took the top two most frequently used starting lineups and calculated them as a percent of total games.  These lineups account for 66% of games started, leaguewide.

percentThe Pacers were dead last at 29%.

This is not something that is unique to this year for O’Brien’s Pacers.  The next new starting combo he uses will be his 60th different one.  Of the 206 games Jim O’Brien has coached for the Pacers, he has used no starting lineup for more than 17 games.  Twenty nine different players have donned a Pacer uniform under Obie, and 25 of them have gotten at least one start.  Those not earning that honor include David Harrison, Courtney Sims, and Maceo Baston.  The fourth, AJ Price, is highly likely to become the 26th different starter at some point later this season.

Basketball-Reference has the starting lineup information for all teams going back to 1987.  In looking at the Pacers history during that time, Jimmy is certainly a leading tinkerer, but he does not have the most different lineup cards.  That honor belongs to Rick Carlisle, who tried a staggering 93 different permutations during his four-year tenure.  Of course, that was greatly inflated by the impacts of the brawl (30 units in 2005) and the Ron Artest trade debacle (31 in 2006).  Bird only started 11 different combinations during his highly successful three-year stint.  Here’s a look at the year by year numbers for the Pacers:

Pacersbyyear

If nothing else, that graphic shows you just how unstable the Pacers have become over the last few years.  While one would hope that it will settle down, it’s not something I expect to happen real soon.  The talent isn’t there.  The health isn’t there.  It’s possible, perhaps likely, that Indy will have a new coach either later this season or going into next.  This pattern probably won’t change with a new inhabitant the hot seat, and it probably won’t change for some time even after they get out from under the contracts shackling them right now.

Perhaps we should make it a drinking game.

The

All is ready for the final meeting on the starting lineup for tomorrow night’s game at the Palace.

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Five Years Later

by Jared Wade on November 19, 2009 at 9:11 pm · 1 comment

Happy Anniversary. *sigh*

UPDATE: I forgot to add what I had tweeted earlier, which is the only thing I really have to say about the whole incident at this point:

I saw the Malice at the Palace live in an NYC bar that was later destroyed when a 24-story-tall construction crane fell on it. Apropos, I thought.”

(video from FanDome)

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The Summer Losses: Marquis Daniels

by Jared Wade on October 22, 2009 at 3:54 pm · 2 comments

Over the next week, we’re going to break down exactly what the Pacers have lost and gained in the free agent moves that went down this summer in two series of cleverly named posts “The Summer Losses” and “The Summer Gains.” See, while you were out enjoying barbecues, water skis and strange, erotic journeys from Milan to Minsk, we were toiling away in the 8.9 Lab watching film of Rasho Nesterovic and analyzing the statistical variation in Earl Watson’s assist-to-turnover ratio. (Ed note: I did neither of those things.)

Without need for any extracurricular ado, let’s kick things off with Marquis Daniels.

marquis daniels

Marquis sells some shoes for Yums.

Marquis joined the Pacers in the summer of 2006, coming to the team in a trade for Austin Croshere. While Austin had been a fan favorite for his timely threes and overall quality play throughout the Pacers Finals run in 2000, his bloated contract had, along with the deals given to Jonathan Bender, Jamaal Tinsley and Jermaine O’Neal, hamstrung front office flexibility, leaving many to view the trade as Indiana getting a quality, young, athletic swing man in exchange for an overpaid player who never lived up to expectations.

Marquis fit in well immediately, providing some much-needed scoring, slashing and ball-handling for the second unit while also playing above average defense on the other end. Unfortunately, he was soon injured — something that would become a hallmark of Marquis’ time in Indianapolis.

Year two was more productive as he remained healthy enough to play in a career-high 74 games, which is 12 more than his second-best total of 62 with the Mavs. Even though he was physically able to play more, he didn’t seem to be as effective as he was during his first year as a Pacer. It would be disingenuous to call his play lethargic, because he almost always played hard and attacked the paint whether he was penetrating or cutting through the lane. But Marquis always had an aura of disinterest surrounding him on the court and a very mechanical approach to most plays. I’m not sure how exactly you can seem as disinterested as Marquis while also being as active as he was, but he managed.

Ultimately, he was one of the worst-shooting guards in the NBA and now playing under Coach Jim O’Brien, who runs one of the most jumpshot-happy offenses in the NBA. Under Rick Carlisle’s system, Marquis’ slashing and perimeter activity allowed him to find seams in the defense as opposing players rotated to double Jermaine O’Neal or stop penetration from Jamaal Tinsley and Stephen Jackson. But with Jimmy’s offense more geared toward maintaining proper spacing on the perimeter and a revamped roster that had few people able to force the defense to rotate by driving or posting up, Marquis was forced to just stand around on the wing more often. And when he found himself wide-open catching a swing pass behind the three-point line, he was beholden to take the shot for the sake of the offense — even when neither he nor Pacer fans wanted to see another flat jumper clang off the outside of the rim. The result: a player who had never taken more than 36 threes in a season during his pro career took 102 in his first year under O’Brien, and that doesn’t even include all the long jumpers he took from a foot inside the line.

In year three, Marquis seemed to shake some of that funk and get back to finding a way to be his old self again; he was again looking like the dynamic, jack-of-all-trades reserve player that a lot of NBA scouts and fans thought he could become. Just as everything was comint together, however, injuries derailed what had been a pretty good first half of the season, during which Quis had recorded 13.3 ppg on 45.7% shooting in just 30 minutes per night. But after the All-Star break, he would only play in 15 more of the team’s 28 remaining games.

And just like that, his tenure in Indiana was over. The team quickly declined a contract option to retain his services for another season and, after the possibility of mutually beneficial sign-and-trade with Boston proved futile, Danny Ainge signed Marquis as a free agent outright.

During a media conference call yesterday, ESPN analyst Jon Barry was discussing what type of player the Celtics had acquired and described Marquis as somewhat of a man without a position. According to Barry, “he’s not a shooting guard because he can’t shoot.” Nor is he a point guard because even though he is a serviceable ball-handler who can push the ball up the court and handle it capably on the perimeter, he really doesn’t have the ability to run an NBA offense. And at a wiry 6’6″, Barry doesn’t believe that Marquis has the frame nor the bulk to really match up with most small forwards.

While Quis may not have a discernible position, he does have one elite NBA skill; the man can finish in the paint. He does not excel off the dribble getting to the rim, although he can take it off the bounce from three-point line to the cup on occasion. More often, however, he will either penetrate into the paint right below the foul line or catch the ball there while slashing and then slither up through traffic and hit a six-foot leaner. His ability to make short jumpers in the paint is uncanny.

And with the Celtics offense in need of some scoring off the bench, yet not reliant on Marquis to do to much, Celtics fans should be happy to see him scoring around the rim, pushing the ball up the court and finally giving the team a guy who can serve as a backup point guard to Rondo if necessary. Marquis can never be a primary distributor, but a combination of Pierce and him on the perimeter will give them enough secondary ball-handlers to let Rajon catch a breather here and there.

But, honestly, who cares about Boston?

Getting back to what the Pacers have lost, let’s look at the numbers.

Marquis Daniels’ 2008-09 PER of 12.88 was the highest total he posted during his three-year Pacer stint, following last year’s 11.65 (12th best on that year’s roster) and the previous year’s 11.67 (which was 13th best on the team that year). Still, that 2008-09 number made him only the 38th best NBA shooting guard last year when ranked by PER.

For some perspective, here are the guys closest to him:

36. Rashard McCants – 13.03 [he's not currently in the league]
37. Tony Allen – 12.96 [the guy who Ainge was trying to unload in a S&T for Quis]
38. Marquis Daniels – 12.88
39. Sasha Vujacic - 12.65 [good shooter, but have you seen his haircut?]
40. Bobby Jackson – 12.40 [a 36-year-old shooter who shot 30.5% from three last year]

And as far as comparing Marquis’ value to that of his teammates, here is how his numbers stacked up against the others on the Pacers roster in a couple of key statistical categories during his Indy years. (Stat – Rank – Total)

Marquis Daniels Stats in 2008-09

Traditional
PPG – 5th (13.6)
APG – 7th (2.1)
RPG – 4th (4.6)

Advanced*
PER – 10th (12.8)
TS% – 13th (49.1%)
ORtg – 12th (99)
DRtg – 10th (110)
WS – 9th (1.3)
OWS – 12th (-0.1)
DWS – 6th (1.4)

Marquis Daniels Stats in 2007-08

Traditional
PPG – 8th (8.2)
APG – 8th (1.9)
RPG – 7th (2.9)

Advanced*
PER – 12th (11.6)
TS% – 12th (.487)
ORtg – 12th (95)
DRtg – 6th (107)
WS – 8th (1.0)
OWS – 16th (-0.8)
DWS – 5th (1.7)

Marquis Daniels Stats in 2006-07

Traditional
PPG – 9th (7.1)
APG – 11th (1.3 )
RPG – 13th (1.8)

Advanced*
PER – 13th (11.6)
TS% – 13th (.506)
ORtg – 15th (97)
DRtg – 15th (108)
WS – 14th (0.6)
OWS – 15th (-0.1)
DWS – 10th (0.7)

* PER – Player Efficiency Rating | TS% – True Shooting Percentage | ORtg – Offensive Rating | DRtg – Defensive Rating | WS – Win Shares | OWS – Offensive Win Shares | DWS – Defensive Win Shares

Going through the numbers and contemplating my view of how his game suits the Pacers needs, I don’t see losing Marquis as a huge blow to Indiana.

If Mike Dunleavy can’t bounce back to form, the loss of a good ball-handling guard will hurt. But the Pacers back court should be no worse for wear, assuming that Mike can at least play as many games as Quis did last year and factoring in the acquisition of Luther Head, who is admittedly not as dynamic as Daniels but is probably a better fit in O’Brien’s offense given his shooting ability. And defensively, Dahntay Jones should make up for any shortfalls on the other end of the court. It would be nice if Larry Bird could find a mad scientist to combine Head’s offense with Dahntay’s defense, but even if that laboratory experiment remains impossible, I don’t think the Pacers will face a huge drop off in any area of the game based on the fact that Marquis Daniels is gone.

The loss of Jarrett Jack, however, will be much more difficult to replace — but we’ll save that discussion for tomorrow.

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In a mildly surprising move today, the Indiana Pacers announced that they have exercised the team’s option to extend Jim O’Brien’s contract for the 2010-11 season. Over the past two seasons, O’Brien has coached the Pacers to a 72-92 record, finishing just out of the Eastern Conference playoffs in ninth place each year.

Opinions of him through the Pacer fan base vary greatly. Supporters feel that, under O’Brien, the Pacers have given a more consistent effort and been more enjoyable to watch than in the final two seasons under Rick Carlisle. Many also view him as a part of the overall “change the culture” campaign to clean up the team’s reputation, both on the court and in the locker room. Some who like O’Brien also generally doubt that any coach could have coaxed many more wins out of a Pacers’ roster that could generously be termed as “transitional.”

Detractors, however, point to the sub-.500 record, the on-again/off-again defense (which some would say is only “off-again”) and the questionable use of the younger players. O’Brien’s relatively free-wheeling, uptempo offense, with a penchant for the trey, has caused some consternation in the more traditional and staid Hoosier basketball environment.

This move also fits with the general strategy exercised over the course of this summer regarding player acquisitions. It is undoubtedly low cost, and it would leave them open to bringing in a new coach for the 2011-2012 season. This would coincide with all of their large, expiring contracts (Murphy, Dunleavy, Ford and Foster), and, presumably some significant roster changes.

Finally, Bird and Herb Simon seem to be comfortable with Jim — at least for the time being.

“We are very happy to get the option done on Jim’s contract,” said Larry Bird, President of Pacers Basketball Operations. “When I interviewed Jim for this job, he was committed to everything we want to do. We both feel we’re moving in the right direction.”

At the very least, this should put a damper on any lingering “will they or won’t they fire JO’B” discussions that fans are having this season.

Paulie Walnuts Jim Obrien

JO’B and his Paulie Walnuts hair will be roaming the sidelines until at least 2011. (Image: HBO)

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