Missing three out of every five shots you take isn’t good for anyone, but it brings some unwanted attention to the recent recipient of a $58-million dollar contract. The spotlight gets even brighter when that players’ team is missing it’s leading scorer and struggling offensively.

Saturday, Mike Wells of the Indianapolis Star shed some light on what is likely a contributing factor in Hibbert’s struggles, when he reported that the Georgetown product had a wrist injury,

“I haven’t had any power in my right wrist,” Hibbert said. “So my hand has been basically a stub.”

The injury traces back to last May’s playoff series vs. the Heat, but the severity of the issue was only determined recently.

The team’s medical staff determined Dec. 14 that there was a significant problem with his wrist.

“It doesn’t hurt. It just has weakness,” Hibbert said. “Things were just out of whack. I was getting the shots I wanted with my right hand, but a few would go completely off track. So my touch was basically gone. That’s why I was shooting more shots with my left hand in the post.”

Hibbert has been getting treatment on his wrist on a regular basis since the injury was revealed.

After spending most of the season shooting below 40 percent from the field, Hibbert went into Saturday having shot at least 50 percent from the field in four of the past five games.

Using Basketball-Reference’s great resources, we can see how (or if) this injury is manifesting itself in Hibbert’s effectiveness from the floor.

The spiderweb above shows Roy’s shot distribution by shot type for this season (blue) and last (yellow). There are a couple of things worth mention. First, “tip shots” as a percent of total have more than doubled year-over-year, but I’ll come back to that a little later. The bigger point here is that the hook shot is a big part of the big man’s arsenal.

Last year, almost 34% of Hibbert’s shots were hooks – more than any other type. This season, they’ve dropped a little bit, but still represent over 28% of his  attempts. Given the nature and mechanics of hook shots – particularly the jump hook that is predominant in today’s game – it makes sense to assume that a wrist injury would have a disproportionately adverse affect on a player who relies heavily on them.

And this is what we see in terms of effectiveness:

This spiderweb shoots Roy’s FG% on each shot type. The blue (2013) is almost entirely contained within the yellow (2012), and that’s a bad thing. It means that Hibbert has been less effective in every shot type except for dunks. Far more importantly, he has dropped from .622 on hook shots to .476 this season.  Looking at his shot charts on hooks comparatively for the two years doesn’t show a significant difference in where he’s getting these shots.

Roy Hibbert Hook Shots 2012-13 Season

Roy Hibbert Hook Shots 2011-12 Season

One of Hibbert’s vulnerabilities in the past was getting pushed a foot or two out of his comfort zone, but that isn’t readily apparent here. The shots are coming from the same spots on the floor, but he’s just missing a lot more of them. He has occasionally reverted to  “throwing the ball at the rim,” as opposed to actually shooting it. To this point, I had assumed that it was simply Hibbert regressing to old bad habits, but this wrist injury could explain at least part of the issue.

Last season, Hibbert shot .497 from the floor. This is probably close to optimum for a player with Hibbert’s skill set and shot selection. This season, his shooting percentage has dropped 93 points to .404. Of that 93 point drop 41 points can be directly attributed to his decline in effectiveness on hook shots.

The waterfall chart above shows what the main drivers in his decline from a shooting percentage perspective are. The hook host is almost twice any other impact. However, percentages are somewhat abstract, so the chart below shows how many made baskets these declines have cost Hibbert – and the Pacers.

By dropping from .497 to .404, Hibbert has made 27 fewer buckets. That’s 54 points for a team for whom half of their 12 losses have been by 5 or fewer points. Twelve of those lost buckets come directly from Roy’s diminished effectiveness with hook shots.

However, that’s not to say that Hibbert’s failures offensively this season can all be laid at the feet of this wrist injury. There’s simply too much of Roy being Roy at work to say that it’s all about the wrist. This is most readily manifested when you look at the tips and lay-up numbers.

Over the course of the season, I’ve been pretty vocal in my frustration about Hibbert’s inability to convert inside.

That big red semi-circle inside 8 feet is very troubling, and it’s not all hook shots. The big fella’s conversion rate on lay-ups has dropped from .562 to .400, effectively costing the Pacers 6 makes. While the wrist could be at play here, it’s certainly influenced by Hibbert’s lack of balance and power around the rim.

Also, it’s possible we see some mental aspects creeping into the situation, when you start looking at substitution of shots. Hibbert has taken fewer hook shots this season, in favor of jump shots. This is a very bad thing. Even dropping to .476, Hibbert’s hook is an effective weapon. His jumper…not so much. Last season, Hibbert shot .260 in jumpers. This season, it’s up to .265. Just shifting 14 shots away from hooks to jumpers costs 5 buckets. Is this is a function of the defense and game flow, or is Hibbert shying away from the hook shot?

Getting back to the big red semi-circle, I return to the discussion of tips. Overall, he’s getting about the same percentage of his shots from tips and lay-ups this year (29.5%) as last (29.3%). However, the distribution has swung wildly towards the much less effective tips (.348 this year, .407 last). This is something my partner in crime, Jared Wade, has brought up when discussing the inside woes. By more than doubling tips as a percent of total shots, you lose about 4 makes.

The wrist injury is a concern, but not the only one. There are things that Hibbert can fix, and hopefully his recent upward trend in shooting percentage is an indication that he’s moving forward on them. Even if the wrist injury lingers all season, it is not unfair to expect the big man to improve into the mid-40s going forward. His defense has been up to snuff, but the Pacers can’t afford to have their center hovering around 40% from the floor all year long.

Meanwhile, the injury gives us something to watch – Roy Hibbert’s hook shot. It could be a bellwether of his recovery.

Stats and shot charts courtesy of the NBA and Basketball-Reference.com.

Roy Hibbert is a nice guy. The Indiana Pacers center took his Area 55 fans out to the movies on Wednesday night, as they watched Prometheus.

Hibbert asked his fans over Twitter if they wanted to come to AMC Castleton Square 14 to watch and offered the fans free tickets. However, there was only one condition: they were not allowed talk about his contract situation or anything about next year.

It’s all about having fun.

Hibbert has been all over the place recently, recently also being on on Jimmy Kimmel with Jeremy Lin as they both faced off in his Skype scavenger hunt. He also just began a chat session with fans on ESPN (which started at noon).

For Dallas, their Plan A is to try to sign hometown-native Deron Williams, who will certainly opt-out of his contract with the Nets and may leave some money on the table by not re-signing in Brooklyn. If Dallas is unable to get him, then they go to Plan B.

According to Mike Fisher of DallasBasketball.com (via Pro Basketball Talk), Plan B is going after Hibbert. who is a restricted free agent. The Mavericks may be willing to pay Hibbert a lot, but since Roy is a restricted free agent, Indiana can match any offer if they wish. Presumably, the Pacers will match even up to the four-year max deal (of roughly $55 million) that Dallas can offer Hibbert under the CBA.

So no matter what the Mavericks do, there’s a good chance of Hibbert staying. It just might cost Indiana a little more.

(000′s $)

The Pacers are committed to paying those contracts in full – with one exception. The $870 thousand for Lance Stephenson is fully unguaranteed until July 15th. If he is waived before then, then that money goes away. You’ll also note that the salary for Dahntay Jones is in green. That indicates a player option. Jones could elect to terminate his contract and explore free agency, but that seems unlikely.

For reference, I have included the projected salary cap – $58.044 million. This is flat to this year. The revenue for the lockout-shortened season will probably be down, but the CBA guaranteed that the cap would not drop below this level. Based on this figure, the Pacers would have $21.767 million left between their contracts and the salary cap. That number would go to $22.637 million, should the Pacers waive Stephenson prior to July 15th.

However, while that’s the most money they’d have available, it is not what they actually have free to start the summer spending.

Cap Holds – The Hibbert and Hill Effect

Technically, the Pacers will open the summer with no available cap space.

In order to prevent teams from letting all of their contract expire, signing other free agents, then re-signing their own players with “Bird Rights” to go over the cap, the CBA places “cap holds” on a team’s free agents, draft picks, and retired players.

(000′s $)

The Pacers will enter July with over $32 million in cap holds, putting their total cap figure at close to $70 million. However, only a few of those holds really matter.

The biggest cap hold is on Leandro Barbosa’s contract, at $11.4 million (150% of his 2012 salary). As he helped late in the regular season and early in the playoffs, it was worth considering keeping him around. After the Miami series, that seems less appealing. Regardless, if you wanted to keep him, then the Pacers would need to sign him quickly for a figure much lower than his hold. However, the base expectation is that the Pacers will renounce their Bird Rights to Barbosa, thus removing all of the cap hold. (The decision to be made about Barbosa is likely low on the front office’s offseason priority list.)

I didn’t list all of the holds here, because the ones for Jeff Foster, A.J. Price, and Kyrylo Fesenko are probably moot. Indiana will renounce all of them for various reasons. However, I did include Lou Amundson. Amundson is a player that the Pacers would probably like to re-sign at the right price. However, his price probably won’t be materially different from his hold. As you’ll see later, how Indiana can or will deal with Lou will greatly depend on what direction they want to go with their other moves. (And as with Barbosa, it is not a primary concern.)

That leaves the three holds that matter – Roy Hibbert, George Hill, and the 1st Round Draft Pick. They total $11.217 million.

So what can the Pacers do? Well, a lot of things, but it’s probably easiest to look at it in two separate scenarios.

Keeping the Core Together

If you operate under the assumption that the Pacers will want to re-sign Roy Hibbert and George Hill, then that limits the money available pretty drastically. Both players are sure to command contracts greater than their cap holds, so the way to maximize the cap space would be to wait to re-sign these two until after the Pacers made their free agent acquisitions.

Under that approach, Indiana would most likely have the $10.550 million identified in red above available to sign free agents (this assumes renouncing Barbosa, Amundson, etc.). From there they would have three avenues to create more cap space – one entirely under their control, and two that would need trading partners.

Waive Lance Stephenson – This would add $870 thousand of cap space, bringing them to $11.420 million available. Making this move has the virtue of being entirely at the discretion of the Pacers. I think this is possible, but don’t consider it likely. Nor am I making a judgment on whether or not Lance should  be waived. However, it’s worth noting that Lance could be waived, then re-signed later to the minimum … which happens to be $854 thousand next year. It could be a painless option for both parties, but it also doesn’t move the needle very much.

Trade, Sell or Renounce the Draft Pick -  The Pacers hold the 26th pick in the NBA Draft this June, and it carries with it a cap hold of $894 thousand. The Pacers could elect to trade that pick without taking back salary, sell it for up to $3 million, or renounce their rights to the pick (probably after making the pick). The first two are possible, the third extremely unlikely. The last example of renouncing the rights to a draft pick I can recall is Chicago doing it with Travis Knight in 1996. The Pacers also lost the rights to Greg Minor — whose rights they’d acquired in the Mark Jackson trade — but that was for reasons surrounding failing to file the right paperwork in time that I can’t quite recall, and in any case, was four CBAs ago. The Pacers may trade or sell the pick, but the need would have to be very specific. This path also seems unlikely to me, simply because first round draft picks are cheap players with potential, and teams don’t like to give them away.

Make an unbalanced trade, where they send out more salary than they take back – This seems unlikely to me, because Indiana would need a trading partner with either cap space or a Traded Player Exception (TPE) who would also be interested in taking a player that the Pacers didn’t want. However, since Danny Granger has the only contract on the Pacers that is guaranteed beyond the 2012-13 season, there are candidates. Seems to me that the most likely scenario of a collection of long shots would be to get some team to take back the final year of either Dahntay Jones ($2.900 million) or Tyler Hansbrough ($3.055 million), in exchange for some future considerations — second round picks, highly protected firsts. This, along with waiving Lance Stephenson, could create just under $15.400 million in cap room, while retaining the holds for Hibbert and Hill. This is close to, but not quite, big enough to make a 30% max offer. However, there’s a lot of risk in that. The Pacers would have to make that deal, before they had an agreement – or even spoken to — a free agent. Very good chance that they could come out of the exchange with more money to spend, but not be able to spend it on who they want.

Those are opportunities to get clever. However, if the Pacers prioritize re-signing Hibbert and Hill, it likely indicates a more conservative approach. Therefore, the best assumption to follow is that they’ll have just a little over $10 million available to add talent.

In this scenario, there are two players that I would put at the top of the shopping list.

First, Steve Nash. Nash would do wonders for the Pacer offense, and — I have to believe — Roy Hibbert. He reportedly has winning as a high priority, and perhaps he could be brought in on a David West-type deal…maybe even less in the right circumstances. I’m not great at predicting what his actual price tag will be, but I have to believe it would within the Pacer budget. I think it would just be a question of mutual interest.

Second, Irsan Elyasova. Again, not entirely sure of his price, but a very good, active upgrade on the Pacer reserve bigs who also could provide some sorely needed shooting ability.

In my more delusional moments, I think of getting both, but one or the other would be fine.

Other factors could derail this plan pretty quickly, though. Both Hibbert and Hill are restricted free agents, which is both a blessing and a curse for the Pacers. The blessing comes in the fact that the Pacers can match any offer made. The curse comes in that the new CBA only allows three days to match, instead of seven.

If Roy Hibbert and/or George Hill sign offer sheets very early in the process, it significantly alters the math here. In fact, if both sign on July 1st (or whenever the first day), the Pacers will be forced to make all of their major offseason decisions in a three-day time frame. This is especially concerning when you consider that the Pacers’ normal M.O. is to allow things to unfold.

In any case, I expect the Pacers to seek to keep the core together, so I think they will prioritize re-signing their two restricted free agents. Then look to add more talent. Nash and Ilyasova may or may not be on their wish list.

However, they could go another way.

Go Big Game Hunting

Really, what this amounts to is going after Deron Williams. However, the first thing I need to do here is address Eric Gordon. The Pacers have been linked repeatedly to Eric Gordon, and while the match is perfect in theory, it is fraught with practical problems.

First is the very real concern over whether Gordon will be worth the amount of money it will take to sign him. The most damning argument against is the fact that he’s missed 20, 26, and 57 games over the last three seasons. That’s not a warning sign. That’s somebody walking beside you 24 hours a day, slapping you upside the head, and saying, “He’s injury prone. He’s injury prone. He’s injury prone.”

Also, Gordon went from being considered a promising, possible All-Star one day to the future best shooting guard in the league, all without ever actually showing any sustained reason for that jump. He has played at a very high level for relatively short periods of time in the context of a career and a contract worth upwards of $60 million.

But the biggest practical obstacle is his restricted free agent status.

Though I wouldn’t do it, New Orleans seems committed to matching any offer, up to and including a max deal. This fact closes the window on this opportunity for all but the tiniest sliver. So, I don’t consider Gordon a practical option, but the good news for those who do is: the steps needed to put the Pacers in a position to make a run at Williams will also allow them to make a run at Gordon.

Now, the math.

(000′s $)

The table above outlines the max contracts. While the overall cap will not change, the CBA has guaranteed that the cap used for establishing player max salaries will increase, driving up the max salaries available.

The two columns of importance to the Pacers are the 25% column and the 30% column. Eric Gordon (and Roy Hibbert) can be paid up to the amount in the 25% column, with a starting salary of $13.669 million. Deron Williams’ maximum is in the 30% column, with a starting salary of $16.403 million.

If the Pacers are willing to make some hard choices, they would have enough space to offer a 25% max, and they could come close to a 30% max. But, those choices would be hard, and they’d begin with renouncing the Bird Rights to George Hill.  That alone would create enough space to offer Eric Gordon the max.

From there, if the Pacers were to waive Lance Stephenson and unload their first round pick, they could offer a starting salary of just over $16.1 million to Deron Williams. This would be just below the max, and cost Williams about $1.1 million over the course of a four-year contract that any team besides the Nets could offer. Of course, the Nets max offer is worth over $20 million more due to the extra year.

Sidebar – What does renouncing a player mean?
You’re basically giving up your ability to go over the salary cap to sign that player. If the Pacers were to renounce George Hill, then they would only be able to sign him with available cap space, or to a minimum level contract. While there are scenarios where Indiana could renounce Hill (or Hibbert), then still find a way to keep him, their chances are very remote. One should assume renouncing a player would end the team’s relationship with that player. There is only one instance in which a player can be “un-renounced.” That is if he was renounced in order to make an offer on another team’s restricted free agent, and that team matched the offer. However, there are still limitations even then, so it’s safest to consider renunciation final, and be surprised if it isn’t. (As always, Larry Coon’s NBA CBA FAQ is the best source for information like this.)

Correction – Roster Charges

As wintermute notes below, there is something called a roster charge. Per Larry Coon:

“A roster charge if the team has fewer than 12 players (players under contract, free agents included in team salary, players given offer sheets, and first round draft picks). The roster charge is equal to the rookie minimum salary for each player fewer than 12.”

This changes the math enough to change a couple conclusions:

In the “Keep the core together” section, a roster charge ($0.474 million) should be added, lowering the beginning available to just over $10 million. Then both Lance and the pick would be replaced w/ roster charges, meaning those two moves would only create about $0.4 million additional space, each.

It has a bigger effect on the “Big Game” calculations, as the Pacers would not be able to get to $16.1mm. At that point, they’d have four roster charges. That would take away $1.9 million of available space. As wintermute notes, to chase Deron Williams, the Pacers will have to find someone to take on salary – probably Dahntay Jones or Tyler Hansbrough – in order to create room to make a max offer to Williams.

If that wasn’t enough, the Pacers would either have to decide to renounce Roy Hibbert’s Bird Rights (won’t happen), or try to find a team willing to take on some salary. In that case, they’d love for it to be Dahntay or Tyler, but they might have to dangle Darren Collison and his remaining $2.3 million.

No question, this is a risky, risky path, but there are ways to get there. Again, this is just about the math of creating the space to sign Deron Williams. It’s not a discussion of whether or not he would come to Indiana.

Which Way?

It’s tough to tell. I’d say it depends on whether or not Bird returns. If Bird returns, then I’d bet heavily on the Pacers re-signing Hibbert and Hill, while trying to make another David West-level acquisition. This could come in free agency, or they could look to make a trade. If Bird leaves, then it depends on his replacement, and I don’t know who that might be. I will say this, however. If it ends up being Kevin Pritchard, then I’d expect the Pacers to make a run at Deron Williams.

To me, if you can get Williams, you have to get him. However, while I think he’d come to Indy, I don’t think Indy will be his first choice. New Jersey and – reportedly – Dallas, will likely look more attractive to Williams. So, while I’d explore the Williams opportunity, I’d plan on moves in the vein of Nash/Ilyasova, or other opportunities that may not be readily apparent to the casual observer. Of course, there is always the possibility of trading any of the players on the roster – Danny, Roy, David, DC. While that makes it hard on us prognosticators, the amount of flexibility the Pacers have leaves them in a position to be envied by pretty much everybody else in the NBA.

Plenty of questions about what will happen this summer, but this post should provide the framework for the financial options and limitations the Pacers face. Stay tuned.

As noted by ESPN Stats & Info, it’s no surprise that Miami has won both of the games so far in this series that have included foul trouble for Hibbert.

In the second half of Game 1, Hibbert sat for 11 minutes, 25 seconds spanning the third and fourth quarters, which is one reason the Heat outscored the Pacers by 14 points on field goals less than five feet from the basket in the second half.

Overall in Game 1, the Heat outscored the Pacers, 40-22, inside of five feet from the hoop.

In Game 4, the Pacers were minus-8 with Hibbert off the court, and minus-5 in rebound differential. With Hibbert on the bench from the 5:03 left in the third quarter until 6:11 left in the fourth, the Heat made seven field goals — including six within 12 feet of the basket (three each by Dwyane Wade and LeBron James).

Even without an inside scorer, the Heat have attacked the basket when Hibbert has been out of the game.

During the regular season, the Heat shot 62.3 percent on field goals less than 5 feet from the basket, which ranked fourth in the NBA (league average was 59.5).

With Hibbert on the floor, Miami’s field goal percentage inside of 5 feet drops to 51.7; however, with Hibbert on the bench, that percentage shoots up to 64.6. What’s more, the Heat attempt more than 42 percent of their shots inside of 5 feet when Hibbert is off the court, compared to less than 30 percent when Hibbert is playing.

Read Avi’s piece for a more detailed analysis, but those numbers make it pretty obvious that the Pacers need Roy Hibbert in the paint if they plan to have their best chance to win Game 5.

In the Orlando series, Roy Hibbert became a defensive anchor for the Pacers in the paint. This hasn’t changed against the Heat. He is, however, getting into foul trouble much quicker in the second round. In just four games he already has 16 personal fouls as opposed to 17 in his five games against the Magic. This doesn’t really come as a huge surprise considering the Heat’s ability to draw fouls; they are 2nd in the NBA’s postseason so far, drawing 29.5 a game.

But for the Heat, which were only 8th during the regular season drawing 24.2 a game, this is a significant jump. LeBron seems to have stopped settling for jump shots and is being much more aggressive than he was before the playoffs began. During the regular season he was only getting to the line 8.1 times a games as compared to 11.0 a game in the playoffs.

What this means for Roy Hibbert is that he’s going to need to be extra careful to not pick up fouls early on. In the past, fouling out was something he struggled with fairly consistently until he learnt to jump straight up. Against a team like the Heat, Roy is unlikely to get that benefit of jumping straight up.

In Game 4 when Roy got a personal foul against against Haslem with 2:51 left in the second. I was surprised to find out that it was only his first. I thought that the Pacers would be in great shape because the Pacers’ center would be able to stay on the floor longer than usual. But then Hibbert got another minutes later on what can only be considered a foolish decision to surrender a foul against a driving Dwyane Wade without even going for a shot block.

Then, after the half, Roy picked up another quick two fouls before the five-minute mark in the third quarter. His fourth foul — an offensive charge on Shane Battier — especially was one he has to be careful not to get himself into. Without him protecting the paint, Lebron and D-Wade started to take charge, and by the time Roy re-entered the game, it was (pretty much) too late to slow the pace.

I can’t stress how important Hibbert has been this series or why it’s so important for him to make sure he’s able to stay in the game.

Throughout game four whenever Roy Hibbert has been on the court, the Miami Heat have been outscored by 11.3 points (per 48 min). When he is on the bench, the Heat have scored 18.5 more points (per 48 min).

As if that stat alone doesn’t tell you how important Roy Hibbert is, there are many more.

Lou Amundson and Tyler Hansbrough have been struggling at doing there main jobs this postseason, which is rebounding.In the regular season, Lou grabbed 16.8% of all available rebounds, but that has dropped to 13.8% in his time on the court in the postseason. Tyler’s drop hasn’t been as precipitous, only falling from 11.3% in the regular season to 11.1% in the playoffs. But Hansbrough’s offensive rebounding has falled off a cliff, plummeting from 8.6% in the regular season to 6.0% in the postseason. Lou has been even worse in that regard, falling from an impressive offensive rebounding percentage of 14.1% over 753 regular-season minutes to a measly 7.6% in the playoffs.

To make matters worse, it’s offensive rebounds specifically that they are giving up. When Roy Hibbert has been in the game during the playoffs, the Pacers only give up 11.7 offensive rebounds per 48 minutes. When he sits, that number balloons 17.0.

In Game 4 when Roy Hibbert left the game the Pacers trailed by 1 point. Immediately when Roy left the game, LeBron and D-Wade started driving to the basket without hesitation. “Why would they be quicker to drive with Roy Hibbert off the floor?” you ask. How about because the Heat are shooting 52% from the restricted area (10% less than their avg) when Roy is on the floor compared to 65% when he’s on the bench.

Yeah, I’d say that’s a pretty damn good reason.

In Game 3 Roy Hibbert only had four fouls. His third came only with 3:28 left in the third quarter, and the fourth foul came after the game was already decided. The result? A Tim Duncan-like performance. Interestingly enough, after that game, Roy talked about his relationship with Tim and how he learns a lot from him. Roy said that he models his game after him, and I can definitely see the similarities so far. Aside from the fundamentals and footwork over flash approach they take to the game, they seem to have a similar demeanor (few emotions, cool headed, etc.).

While many might say that Danny Granger is the Pacers’ best offensive scorer or that David West is their most important offensive player, Roy Hibbert is their most important all around player. He is the key to slowing down LeBron and D-Wade; he is they key to defending the paint. Without Roy the Pacers would be struggling mightily in this series. If Roy Hibbert stay out of foul trouble and stay in the game, he has the potential to tip the series in Indiana’s favor.

It has been well documented that LeBron James had a historically good night in Miami’s Game 4 win in Indiana, tallying 40 points 18 rebounds and 9 dimes. Nobody has notched totals that high in all three categories in a Playoff game since Elgin Baylor did so for the Lakers in 1961. But in that game, Los Angeles beat Detroit 120-102 in Game 1 of their opening-round series, so Elgin’s individual impact on the game was slightly less pronounced.

In the Heat’s 101-93 victory, for example, LeBron scored 39.6% of Miami’s points: a number he has eclipsed only twice this season. That, in addition to the fact that nobody has done so in 50 years, makes it not only unlikely that he matches those totals in all three categories, but unlikely that even he scores 40 points in a game again in this series.

The other stat totals are likely to decline as well.

In no game this year has James totaled more than his 27 combined assists and rebounds from yesterday. He also added two blocked shots, a total that he hasn’t surpassed in more than two and a half months months. The lone aspect of the King’s rule in Game 4 that Pacer fans should worry about were his zero three-point attempts. Last night was the first time in 21 games that James, a 33.1% career shooter from behind the arc, had failed to bail out the defense with at least one long ball, and if that continues for the rest of this series, Indiana could be in a bit of trouble. But the odds of all of these trends happening again in a single game is astronomical, and the Pacers still were in the game from start to finish.

So while the the Miami Heat may have won Game 4 in Indianapolis,it would appear that they caught lightning in a bottle.

And it isn’t just LeBron.

Dwayne Wade’s spectacular night was a bit overshadowed by his wing mate, but it is equally unrepeatable. The Heat guard grabbed 9 rebounds in Game 4 after only notching 11 previously in the entire series. He also managed 30 points in the final 31 minutes of this game after scoring 29 points in his previous 74 minutes of action. Six of those points came from behind the arc, matching the number of treys he had hit since April 10th.

In short, while Wade played a great game, a drop off is likely imminent for Game 5.

Udonis Haslem even got into the act, as he more than doubled the point production he had in the previous three games. Coming into action on Sunday, Haslem had scored only 6 points all series, and he surpassed that number with 8 points in the fourth quarter alone. His 14 points came on 5 made field goals, the most shots he had made in nearly 2 months. Some of this can be attributed to the fact that the Pacers, presumably sick of watching LeBron and Wade fillet them on offense, went to a “somebody else beat us” strategy. They changed their pick-and-roll defensive strategy to blitz the ball-handler (either James or Dwyane) with two and this left Haslem time to shoot an at-least-semi-open shot from the mid-range. Unexpectedly compared to his recent ability to shoot jumpers, he knocked them down.

Additionally, the Heat played their best game of the series while the Pacers struggled.

In Game 4, Roy Hibbert — for all intents and purposes the Pacers MVP this postseason — was limited to his lowest offensive rebound and total rebound marks for the series. Foul trouble sidelined him while Wade and James relentlessly attacked the rim. The Pacers as a whole couldn’t make a play on defense when they needed it most, resulting in Miami becoming the first team to eclipse the century mark in points against Indiana during the playoffs. The result was Indiana losing the battle of the paint, which is not surprising given the slashing ability of Wade and James and the foul trouble to the Pacers’ front court. But they were outscored by 18 points in the paint in this game (50-32), the exact total that they have been outscored in the paint this entire series. Adding more futility to the fire was the fact that the Pacers had nearly as many turnovers (15) as assists (17).

The game was ugly, but the loss only counts once.

With a few of the trends reverting back to their norms, Indiana has plenty of hope for Tuesday night.

I’m not sure when the pick-and-roll was invented, but it was probably about three weeks after James Naismith hung a peach basket on a pole. It is among the most basic offensive actions a team can run and it has been a staple play of virtually every NBA team since the days of Bob Cousy. The reason: if run properly, it inevitably creates an advantage, at least temporarily, for the offense.

There are many ways to defend the pick-and-roll. None of them work. Again, the offense always gets an advantage and while different defensive strategies can limit that edge in various ways, vulnerabilities remain. So the goal for the two defenders involved in the play is to react to the screen and then recover quickly enough to ensure that both offensive players are corralled into areas where they can do the least damage.

In recent years, the prevailing defensive philosophy used against the pick-and-roll has been to blitz the ball handler and force him to give the ball up. I can’t say exactly when or why this became the norm, but it probably has to do with players like LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook being so adept at going by big men in zero second flat and splitting any soft double teams. Players in the 1980s weren’t doing it like they can.

Regardless of why, things done changed.

Tom Thibodeau is the leader of the new school. As an assistant in Boston and now as a head coach in Chicago, he has implemented this “swarm the pick-and-roll” strategy to help his teams play some of the best defense the sport has ever seen. It is the anti-thesis of passively reacting to what the offensive team wants to accomplish in the pick-and-roll. The defense becomes the aggressor, swarming the man with the ball and rotating help defenders to stop the roll man from catching a pass and scoring at the rim.

Throughout the first three games on their series against the Heat, the Pacers have not been doing this. They have instead done the exact opposite.

As the ball-handler (usually LeBron or Wade and sometimes Mario Chalmers) comes off the screen, the big man does not run at him hard. He is barely even showing at all actually. He is just hanging back and maintaining a pool-cue-length distance in between himself and the guy with the ball.

This accomplishes two things that fundamentally alter how the rest of the play will likely transpire. First, it makes it much harder for the ball-handler — no matter how fast and crafty he is as a penetrator — from getting all the way to the rim. The big man hanging back is essentially adopting a free safety mentality in which he won’t allow anyone to get past him. Of course, the penetrator can just try to go over or around, but especially when the defender is Roy Hibbert … good luck with that. He is 7’2″ and has been in a shot-blocking zone for weeks now.

The other key difference with this strategy is that it only involves four people in the action: the ball-handler, the screener and the two defenders covering them. When you use the Thibodeau-favored approach, you involve five (and really closer to 10) players in the play: the screener, the ball-handler, the two defenders who both blitz the ball-hander after the screen, and a help defender who must contain the roll man. When executed properly, this isn’t a problem. After the ball-handler gives the ball up to one of his open teammates, the defense just has to rotate quickly and precisely to cover up the exposure they created by doubling. With time, practice, smart players and a commitment to effort, Thibodeau and other teams have shown just how effective this can be. But it does always, at least temporarily, leave one man open.

Frank Vogel has no interest in doing that.

The Pacers’ coach is trying to minimize the impact that Miami’s role players have on this series. And since the main way they can change the tide of any game is by hitting threes, he certainly doesn’t want to use a containment strategy against LeBron and Dwyane (which he knows is generally futile anyway) that allows Mike Miller, Shane Battier and James Jones to sway this series.

So his defense is guarding pick-and-rolls two on two. As with any pick-and-roll defense, this still concedes an advantage to Miami. But it is simply one that the Heat — especially Dwayne Wade — have proven incapable of exploiting.

An overwhelming majority of the times that LeBron, Wade and Chalmers have dribbled off a high screen, they have found themselves open. The guy defending them is busy fighting through the screen and the big man, as previously mentioned, is hanging back five feet in “free-safety/rim protection” mode. So they are open. It’s just that they are open in a way that they are unaccustomed to being open. (Well, aside from Chalmers. I think he has been open for about 80% of the minutes he has ever been on an NBA court. Nothing new here for him.)

That has generally not deterred LeBron from being effective. He has still found many ways to score and create for teammates. Most impressively, he has resorted to a little running floater in the lane that I have hardly ever seen him take. It really is amazing. To deal with an unfamiliar way of being defended, he has basically created an entirely new weapon.

And it has been damn effective.

Seriously, we can’t overstate how impressive it is that LeBron has adapted this shot into his repertoire, basically on the fly over the past week. Guys like Mark Jackson, Tony Parker and Derrick Rose spent years perfecting a floater. Since a young age, they have faced the conundrum of being quick enough to get into the paint but sometimes too short to successfully challenge a shot-blocker at the rim. So they create a way to deal with that.

LeBron almost never has this problem.

But now, with the way Roy Hibbert is retreating, LeBron is not merely settling for a longer pull-up. He is continuing to advance the ball and getting a closer shot. A shot he has rarely ever taken. He is basically evolving as a player in a front of our eyes. The video above shows three made floaters. I believe there have been at least two others, if not three or four. It’s possible LeBron has scored more points this series on floaters than Mike Miller and Shane Battier have combined to score at all.

LeBron has also consistently found other ways to ensure that the Heat’s pick-and-roll attack — one of the most vital aspects of Miami’s offense — continues to be productive regardless of how it is defended.

Especially in the fourth quarter of Game 1, LeBron went to the pull-up jumper. If he and the other Heat players can consistently start knocking down that midrange shot, Vogel may have to consider mixing up his approach. But if you watch the whole clip above, you will see that it’s not purely pull-ups. LeBron has been crafty and patient in trying to find areas to score from. He loops around and dribbles into space on one shot. On the dump-off passes, notice how he hesitates right before making a pass, freezing the defender and giving his teammate that one extra half-second to dive into the open area. LeBron looks completely comfortable creating in space and just freelancing until the defense shows a weakness.

And on the last two plays in the clip, he just goes straight freight train, not giving a damn what type of defense the Pacers are trying. “Who Gon Stop Me, Huh” you can basically here him saying. The dunk after blowing by David West actually comes on one of the rare instances since the first half of Game 1 when Indiana sent a hard hedge at him after he came off the screen. But it helps show that LeBron wasn’t about to waste that opportunity.

Instead, he just laid waste to the rim.

In striking, baffling, puzzling contrast, Dwyane Wade has shown no such ability to adapt.

The video above is a horror flick for Heat fans.

Throughout the series, he has been confounded while coming off the screen with the ball. He has turned it over repeatedly, missed pull-up jumpers, missed floaters, missed layups, thrown poor passes and generally just been useless leading the pick-and-roll in all three games.

There really is no good way to explain exactly why such a talented player is having so much trouble making the right decision when he finds himself virtually unguarded dribbling off a screen. I this respect, two Wades are baffled.

But all postseason, including against the Knicks, Dwyane’s jumpshot has seemingly left him altogether. To me, this seems the most likely explanation: He has lost confidence in his jumper so he doesn’t want to settle for a mid-range shot and is now pressing. Instead of taking what he is given, he is forcing his drives further into the lane than Hibbert (or the other Indy retreating big) will permit him to do easily. And as he finds too much resistance, he is making hesitant, poor decisions. In the clip above, just look at how many little hiccups there are in his attack and how indecisive his actions generally look. LeBron’s hesitations, on the other hand, are measured, change-of-pace moves that help create more space to attack. Dwyanes hesitations just look like a guy who is clueless on what to do next.

I don’t want to get into an armchair psychiatrist discussion here (there is already too much of that being done while trying to analyze Dwyane’s way of interacting with his coach), but Wade’s current lack of confidence in his jumper may be compounded by his general nature. LeBron is a guy who thrives most in open space. Dwayne always seems to destroy defenses the most right after he appears to be completely confined. Think about the greatest highlights of Wade’s career. They usually look like a snake striking a mouse. He gets trapped then spins, crosses over, leaps, switches hands and makes a beautiful shot. But it’s all just instincts. There isn’t anything but primal reaction to threat that’s bearing down on him.

On the other hand, LeBron is generally at his best when he has plenty of room. There is a reason there are so many highlights start with him taking four giant dribbles backwards towards half court. He likes to have time and space so he can see everything in front of him and the turn it to ash. Wade may as well be Jean Claude Van Damme fighting blind in Bloodsport. He doesn’t really care where anyone is. He will figure that out and score on them somehow if they get in his way.

Both are Hall of Fame effective. They’re just different.

There is something else that makes Dwyane’s struggles against the Pacers’ pick-and-roll defense strange. Oddly enough, in Game 3, it was Mario Chalmers — not Wade — who became the second Miami player in this series to figure out how to exploit a defense that gives him space to operate in front of a retreating defender.

In this video, Mario uses his floater, pull-up jumper and passing to get Miami very good shots.

Now, I don’t want to go overboard here.

This isn’t to say that both LeBron and Chalmers have cracked the code while Dwyane is just too slow on the uptake to figure it out. Because LeBron and Chalmers are still having a ton of problems in the pick-and-roll. Neither is exactly looking like John Stockton out there. Below, for example, are just a few of the possessions during which LeBron has number-twoed the bed as the attacking ball-handler coming off a screen.

And for further fairness here, just look at how well Dwyane has made decisions in instances when the Pacers have not dropped the screener’s defender back into the paint while guarding the pick-and-roll.

*****

The Pacers hold a 2-1 lead in this series because their defense has been able to contain every Heat player except for LeBron James and, in Game 3, Mario Chalmers. Obviously, there is no way for Miami to win if that continues. And just as obviously, to me at least, this pick-and-roll defense is not something that will continue to baffle Dwyane Wade forever. But he is running really short on time.

If Chris Bosh was still playing in this series, this Pacers’ strategy of defending the pick-and-roll probably wouldn’t exist. Miami would just turn its pick-and-roll game into a pick-and-pop game, and Hibbert (and the other Indy retreating bigs) would be forced to come out to contest his lethal mid-range jumper. That would light up the scoreboard. It wouldn’t work.

But Chris Bosh isn’t here any more.

LeBron has adapted to how that changes his team’s offense.

Dwyane hasn’t.

He is a great player and should be fully capable of doing so. But if he doesn’t in Game 4 and his team loses as a result, it seems a near certainty that the Pacers are headed to the Eastern Conference Finals.

This afternoon an upstart, young Pacers team will face the favorites for the NBA Championship and perhaps the most high-profile sports team of the past ten years. It’s an exciting time for anyone with any stake in the Pacers’ organization. But one man has an exceptional amount to gain in this series: Roy Hibbert.

Hibbert will be a restricted free agent this offseason, which means that the Pacers will have an opportunity to re-sign him no matter what other front offices offer but also a possibility another franchise will sign him to an offer sheet so large that Indiana allows him to walk away.

There are a couple reasons why a lot of GMs will be watching this series and figuring out how to convince their boss to go after Mr. Hibbet. Perhaps the most important reason is pretty simple: He is 7’2 and 260 pounds. People with Hibbert’s size are, quite frankly, uncommon on this planet. This is a league where size pays. This year alone, Kwame Brown made $6.8 million, DeSagana Diop made $6.9 million, Hasheem Thabeet made $5.1 million and past-their-primes Mehmet Okur and Marcus Camby made a combined $23 million. All for only the 2011-2012 season.

Hibbert’s size, particularly when you add in his skill set, not only represents something that virtually all NBA teams lack; it represents something the Miami Heat lack. For all of the immense talent wearing a Miami Heat jersey, they do not have someone like him. Jalen Rose likes to say that there are only a couple of centers in the modern NBA that “can walk and chew gum at the same time.” It seems safe to say that Hibbert is one of those players. Avi Friedman recently did an excellent job of acknowledging the defensive impact of Hibbert while touching on his potential for offense.

Hibbert had trouble against the Heat this season, but he showed flashes of great offensive execution and aggression. Against Miami’s center-by-committee strategy, Hibbert still has potential to average 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. And these, proponent argue, are averages that are attainable for Hibbert over entire seasons. He may always have the issue of being slow-footed considering his size. His offensive moves may be substantially slower than those of, say, Dwight Howard, but I do not think this is a particularly fair criticism considering the man has improved as a player each of his first three seasons. Hibbert has given every Pacer fan a reason to believe that he has a great work ethic even if he will never erase some of his innate limitations.

And that brings us to the last reason Hibbert might prove to be a great candidate for a large contract: his character.

It’s tough being a big man in the NBA and never-will-bes like Kwame Brown and Hasheem Thabeet as well as budding stars DeMarcus Cousins and Andrew Bynum can be added to a long list of players who have proven that immaturity makes the job that much harder. Roy Hibbert is not immature. He’s committed to becoming better.

Regardless of what happens in this Eastern Conference semi-finals, Roy may sign an offer sheet somewhere for a lot of money. But if Hibbert plays to his potential and helps the Pacers beat the Heat, or push them to their limit, then you can rest assure that he will make himself a considerable amount of money.

And at that point, the Pacers will have some decisions to make. But that is the future, and we are in a pretty exciting time right now. Hopefully Hibbert can take steps towards meeting people’s expectations for him and it just might help the Pacers exceed most people’s expectations for them.

Going into the playoffs I expected Roy Hibbert to go off offensively and average over 20 points per game against a Dwight Howard-less Magic team. He didn’t do that, but what he did do was become a defensive monster. Against a team missing Dwight Howard, Roy Hibbert played like Dwight Howard defensively. He took ownership over the paint and didn’t allow anyone inside “Painted Area 55” without making sure they left with no intentions of returning.

It wasn’t just the 3.8 blocks he averaged per game, it was the presence he had whenever any Magic player attempted entering the paint. He made sure anyone entering the paint knew they would have to fight if they wanted any chance of scoring. He didn’t give up on plays and was just a dominant force defensively.

In Game Five the Pacers held a 46-22 lead in points in the paint. Roy Hibbert was the main reason. It is probably no coincidence that Hibbert’s most impressive block of the series came in the third quarter of this game, when Glen Davis appeared to have a wide open dunk until Roy swatted it away.

As of right now, Roy Hibbert is leading the NBA in defensive rating during this season’s playoffs. And I know we’ve only (mostly) completed one round of the playoffs, but his 86.3 rating currently stands fourth all time in single season defensive rating during the playoffs.

Roy has also been great at grabbing down rebounds, averaging over 10.8 per game. He has stepped up his defensive rebounding in particular thus far. With a 24.7 defensive rebound rate (the percent of available boards he has grabbed during his time on the court while playing defense), he grabbed nearly a quarter of all the shots the Magic missed in the first round. This is a big jump from the 20.7% he brought down in the regular season (and a huge leap from his 18.4%.)

Now that Roy has shown that he can be a beast defensively, he has to find a way to work that in along with his offense. In the Magic series, while he only had 11 points per game, he shot 53% from the field. This was also an improvement from the regular season, during which he shot 49.7%.

This shows that he probably wasn’t getting enough touches. In Game Four we saw David West starting to demand the ball, and he scored 26 points while doing so.

Roy Hibbert needs to learn that sometimes he, too, needs to demand the ball and not be so passive offensively.

He was widely criticized for his disappearing act in the first round in last year’s playoffs against the Bulls. In that five-game series, he took 45 shots (and 17 free throws). In five games aginst the Magic, he took just 43 (and only 14 free throws).

His defensive dominance means that nobody should be criticizing his overall performance against Orlando — which, it must be noted, did use defensive schemes that specifically tried to keep the Pacers from working them over in the post. But it is hard to see the Pacers thriving against a team as good, and soft inside, as Miami if Hibbert cannot produce more on the offensive end.

I believe will Roy Hibbert start consistently playing above expectations on both offense and defense. If he can, in the spotlight of aplayoff series against the Heat, he will certainly take a few steps forward in the conversation of the best centers in the league. And as a restricted free agent this summer, he will also likely make a lot more money in his next contract.