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Solomon Jones

Bucks’ Game-Clinching Play vs. the Pacers

by Jared Wade on March 15, 2010 at 7:58 pm

Over on NBA Playbook, Sebastian Pruiti broke down a key play from late in Indiana’s loss to Milwaukee yesterday. Honestly, when a team that has won 11 of its last 12 games has a home date with the Pacers, the real “game clinching” play is probably the opening tip, but Sebastian does give us a nice look at how the Bucks pounded the final nail into the coffin.

Here’s the set-up:

When the Bucks entered the fourth quarter against the Pacers, it looked like it was going to be an easy 12 minutes.  The Bucks were leading by 14 at the start of the fourth, and have only allowed 62 points to the Pacers.  However, the Pacers decided to make things interesting in the fourth quarter.  In fact, with 2:19 left a Solomon Jones dunk made the score 90-94, cutting the lead to 4 points.  The Bucks were reeling and they needed a bucket to try and put the game away.

Sebastian then shows exactly what happened in full detail, but the gist is that Solomon Jones and Brandon Rush collectively misread/mishandled a simple up-screen from John Salmons that freed Andrew Bogut for a wide-open bucket at the rim.

Rush, by an large, is a pretty good defender — especially by this roster’s standards. He guards his man rather well when he has the ball and, as we saw in the Laker game during the last West Coast trip, he definitely has the chops to slow down even elite scorers.

But he still does slip up on a lot of the more nuanced stuff. He doesn’t fight through screens consistently and often gets caught napping or just out of position. Veterans are all too often able to find free space while he is guarding them by employing some relatively run-of-the-mill cuts. Sometimes, they don’t even need a screen to get open for a good look.

Of course, this probably isn’t the best representation of Brandon failing in this regard — Solomon simply cannot allow a guy like Bogut to get that much separation so close to the hoop. Most of this bucket is probably on Mr. Jones. Still, Brandon is too often involved in multi-player defensive break downs like this, and his defensive development is not going to progress much beyond where it currently is if he cannot make better off-the-ball decisions/reads.

He seems to have all the foot speed, strength and soft skills to learn how to do everything on the defensive end better. He looks like he may have the potential to be a key perimeter presence in a very good defense some day. That, combined with his shooting and his ability to get to the hoop on occasion is what made a lot of Indy fans glad that the rumored deadline deal with the Bobcats never happened.

The rest of this year and the 2010-11 season will be all about him putting it all together.

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The Numbers Behind “Going Small”

by Tim Donahue on January 28, 2010 at 12:49 pm

If the games against Philly and LA are any indication, the pairing of Roy Hibbert and Troy Murphy could be a thing of the past. To back up his new commitment to “Going Small,” O’Brien said:

“In regards to small vs. big lineup the margin is over +320 (favoring small) for the year. We’ll go with it for as many games as we can, as long as we can because that’s our best lineup.”

That +320 number is pretty dazzling, so I wanted to understand it a little better. Basketballvalue.com has some pretty detailed unit statistics that I use pretty regularly to help me understand things.  Though I couldn’t quite replicate the +320, the statistical differences still make a pretty damning case against any big lineups the Pacers have.

(Note: All analysis excludes Wednesday’s loss to the Lakers, unless specifically noted otherwise.)

What Constitutes a Big Lineup?

A “big lineup” is something of a misnomer when it comes to the Pacers.  Roy Hibbert is the only honest-to-God center on the roster, as well as being the only player over 7-feet tall.  The rest of the “bigs” on this team are really either ‘tweeners or straight power forwards.

Generally, when Obie talks about the big lineup, he’s really referring to the Roy/Troy combo.  For the purposes of this discussion, however, I’m going to expand that.  This roster has three guys whose primary roles are to play center: Roy Hibbert, Jeff Foster and Solomon Jones.  Admittedly, it’s a bit of a stretch to say Foster and Jones are true centers, but that is their role here.

“Big lineups” in this analysis will be defined as any lineup with Roy, Jeff or Solomon at center, alongside one of the other two or one of the more traditional power forwards: Troy Murphy, Tyler Hansbrough or Josh McRoberts.

All other units will be considered “small lineups,” including any lineups where Granger, Dahntay Jones or other smaller players are manning the power forward position.

Big vs. Small

Using these definitions, the Pacers have employed a big lineup for 1,202 minutes this season, which equals about 56% of all minutes. With a big lineup on the floor, the Pacers have been outscored by 252 points, resulting in a +/- per 48 minutes of -10.1 points. This is in stark contrast to when the Pacers have gone small this year.  In the 958 minutes of small ball, they’ve outscored their opponents by 34 points, translating to a 48 minute +/- of +1.7 points. This gives small lineups a +286 advantage for the year over big lineups.

(I’m not sure why there’s a discrepancy between these numbers and the +320 figure O’Brien used in the press, but it’s possible that he might be including the Murph/Hansbrough pairing as a big lineup.  That duo is -45, which would bring the total to +331.  I treated all lineups with Murph as a center as small.  Regardless, the difference doesn’t materially affect the conclusions.)

Offensively, small lineups are also much more efficient, scoring 6.6 more points per 100 possession than big lineups. Their 105.3 per 100 possession output isn’t anything to write home about (league average offenses put up 106.9), but it is at least significantly better than the big lineup offense that only generates 98.7 per 100.  That’s output isn’t quite “New Jersey” bad, but it’s certainly within spitting distance.

Defensively, the Pacers are a middle-of-the-pack team overall, allowing 106.6 points per 100, which puts them just a hair’s breadth better than the league average of 106.9 and ranks them 15th overall.  However, the smalls only give up 104.1 points per 100, which is a rate that would put them 7th in the league, while the bigs allow 108.4, which is worse than average but would still land them about 18th overall.

The generic conclusion here is that the smalls would be a good defensive team and a mediocre offensive team. If sustainable over 82 games, this type of performance probably results in a win total in the mid-40s and puts Indiana in the playoffs — in the Eastern Conference, at least.

By the same token, the numbers say the bigs are playing on a par with Minnesota and New Jersey.

However, averages can be deceiving.  Also, +/- is one of those stats that is really only useful if you continue to ask questions, and there are some good ones that we can still ask.

Breaking Down the Bigs

Unsurprisingly, Roy gets the lion’s share of the center minutes in the big lineup rotation. Here’s a breakout:

BigsPie

I’ve broken these units down into “BigHibbert,” “BigSolomon” and “BigFoster,” and the nomenclature is relatively self explanatory.  Each of these three groupings remain negative in terms of points produced and allowed.  The units anchored by Foster are the least negative, being outscored by only 15 points in 244 minutes (or -3.0 per-48).  Solo’s groups had the worst per-48 +/- at -13.4, while being outscored by 81 overall.  With Roy anchoring the big lineups, opponents score 156 more points than Indiana, or 11.2 points per 48.  For the year, the Pacers have only been outscored by 218 points, meaning the BigHibbert group has accounted for 72% of the team’s deficit while playing only 30% of the minutes.

Defensively, all three of these groupings are terrible.  BigHibbert and BigSolomon each give up almost 108 points per 100, while BigFoster gives up just a tick over 111.  BigFoster’s groupings have shown a little offensive punch by scoring 108.6 per 100, but the other two have been miserable offensively, with BigHibbert only scoring 97.4 and BigSolo scoring a measly 93.4.

However, it’s important to remember that just because these groups carry their names, it is not necessarily an indictment of Roy, Solo or Jeff.  The focus here is unit — and more specifically, the big man combos (PF & C).  It’s no surprise that Troy Murphy is playing the bulk of the power forward minutes in all these big lineups.  To be exact, Murph is on the floor for 62% of all big lineup minutes, and during that time, the Pacers were outscored by 220 points, or 14 points every 48 minutes.  They gave up almost 111 points per 100 while scoring only about 96.  (We’ll come back to discuss Troy a little bit later.)

As is relatively obvious from the bad overall numbers, there is not much good news here.  However, if you’re looking for a silver lining, you can find it in some of the numbers involving Buckaroo Banzai (aka Tyler Hansbrough).  In 197 minutes with Tyler at the 4 alongside either Hibbert or Foster, the Pacers were actually +9, with a respectable 108 points per 100 scored vs. 105 points per 100 allowed.

Small Ball

I’ve nce again broken down the lineups by who is playing “center,” and three groups (SmallHibbert, SmallMurphy and SmallSolomon) have accounted for 93% of the minutes.  So this is where we’ll focus.

Here’s the chart:

smallpie

The Pacers fared pretty poorly with Solo at Center in small lineups, being outscored by over 13 points for every 48 minutes. The Solo units were bad at both ends, scoring 94 per 100 while giving up over 110. (Truth be told, the Pacers have fared pretty poorly whenever Solo has played this year, so I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s only going to be an emergency backup going forward.)

In 343 minutes with Troy at the 5, the Pacers have basically held their own.  They were a -8 overall, or -1 for every 48 minutes. Oddly enough, the results with Murphy are somewhat counter to the conventional wisdom, as they were mediocre (to bad) offensive units at 103 points per 100, but a solid-to-good defensive units, allowing just under 105.

Small ball with Roy at center has been the most successful.  Overall, the Pacers have outscored opponents by 81 in these configurations — or about 10 points per 48.  Roy has been one of the few positives on the team, but here, again, it’s important to look at who is playing the four.  Doing it for these units makes one conclusion relatively clear: Danny at the 4 is the secret of their success.

As noted at the top, the smalls outscored their opponents by 34 points overall this season.  With Danny playing power, the Pacers have been +118 this season, over 10 points better per 48 minutes than the bad guys.  From an efficiency standpoint the “DannyPower” lineup scores 111 while only giving up 101 points in every 100 possessions.  Both of these numbers are outstanding.

So, the answer is: move Danny to the 4.

Right?  Right?

Ehhhhhhhh … I don’t know about that.

The DannyPower Lineup

Once again, we are hit in the face with exactly how poorly the pieces on this team fit together.  Roy Hibbert and Troy Murphy are the Pacers’ best big men.  They are, respectively, the best center and the best power forward on the roster.   However, it’s painfully obvious that they can’t play together effectively.  In 468 minutes of floor time, the Pacers have been outscored by 159 points.  That equates to just about a disgusting -16 points per 48 minutes.  In other words, the Pacers haven’t even been remotely competive when they play together.

Overall, the two of them have played in 98 rotations together.

Take a look at the results of their on-court stretches together, which are broken down by whether they outscore the other team (win), are outscored by their opponents (lose) or match the other squad exactly (draw):

RoyTroy

Even worse than the negative results shown by this chart is the fat that the Hibbert/Murphy big combo has only had positive +/- for an entire game 9 times in the 34 games they played together.  They won 6 of those 9 games, with the only losses coming on the road to the Magic, the Spurs, and the T-Puppies. And they lost 23 of the 25 games in which they were negative, winning only in Washington and at home when they mounted that miraculous comeback against Toronto.

However, if you put either one of them at the 5 with Danny at the 4, it generates some real success.  The Hibbert/Granger big man combo has been +67 (or +11.6 per-48) so far this year, while a Murph/Granger combo has been +45 (or +14.7 per-48).  From an efficiency standpoint, Hibbert/Granger are better offensively (112.6 per 100 vs. 110.5 per 100), but the Murphy/Granger pairing has the edge defensively (97.3 per 100 vs. 100.4 per 100).  It should be noted, however, that all of the numbers are outstanding.

So, why balk at making Danny the permanent Power Forward?

Several reasons.

First, it’s important to keep perspective on things.  The minutes played by these units are substantial, comparable to most of the other units, but they’re still not huge chunks of time.  Combined, they only account for 20% of the 2160 minutes the Pacers have played this season.  It is fair to expect the Law of Diminishing Returns to kick in at some point, bringing these numbers back to earth.

Sustaining this level of performance over 70%-75% of the minutes would likely result in a team that was would win 70%-80% of its ames.  Surely, we all recognize that as wildly unrealistic.  It’s far more likely that raising the playing time on these combos would steadily degrade the result, creating a team capable of winning perhaps half — give or take — of its games.

Second, the Pacers can’t be too wild about the prospect of playing their All-Star Small Forward out of position, though the horse may be out of the barn on this one.  Coming into Wednesday’s night game against the Lakers, Danny had played more minutes at the 4 (549) than at his natural position, the 3 (466).  He’ll regularly be tasked with guarding bigger, stronger and sometimes quicker players like Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Garnett and Pau Gasol.  Add to this the fact that he’s a relatively poor rebounder, and neither Troy nor Hibbert even approximates a dominant inside force.  I’d have a hard time believing that anyone within or outside of the Pacer organization could see that as sustainable.

Third, the ripple effect exposes Indy’s lack of depth at the wing position.  Danny and Mike are the only true small forwards with size on the roster.  Dahntay, at 6′5″, is undersized for a 3, but lacks the shooting range requisite for a SG.  Brandon Rush brings nice size, but given the pace of play and the inconsistency of performance on the wing, we will potentially see a steady diet of Luther Head.  Plus, if you’re going small all the time, then Dahntay Jones will actually see some amount of time at the 4 — a position where he has logged more than 200 minutes this year.

Fourth, opponents must be taken into account.  The Hibbert/Granger combo got a little fat off of losing teams, getting 58% of their minutes and a +45 against them.  Even so, this story is an overall positive.  The Pacers played 207 minutes against winning teams with Danny at the 4, next to either Roy or Troy.  In that time, their offensive efficiency was a stunning 113 points per 100 possessions, and their defensive efficiency was just over 97.  And they outscored the opponent during that time by 69 points.

Finally, it could potentially interfere with playing time for Roy Hibbert and Tyler Hansbrough.  Assuming Jeff Foster isn’t going to return soon, a total commitment to small ball would essentially force Troy and Roy to split the 48 center minutes and never play the 4.

Against the Lakers, Hibbert played 28 minutes and Murphy played 27, but I wouldn’t expect that to be a common event any more.  Bynum and Gasol were killing the Pacers inside all game, but when Hibbert and Murphy started the second half together, the team was outscored by 7 points in the first four minutes — hardly a harbinger of good things to come.  Following that line of reasoning further says that Danny will chew up the majority of the PF minutes, leaving only scraps for Buckaroo Banzai (once he returns from his viral inner ear infection).

A Beggar’s Choice

Despite all of the things previously noted, I’m hard-pressed to disagree with O’Brien’s assessment of the situation.  While I can point out all of the bad things that may happen down this path, I can’t really point out any better alternatives.  I’m sure I won’t quite agree with the minute distribution between Troy and Roy, but I don’t really think that’s a huge game changer.

It really seems to me that the numbers basically indicate:

  • Any combination of (quasi) traditional Pacer bigs = Bad
  • Danny on the floor at the 4 = Better than the alternatives
  • A big man combo of Roy and Troy = Death

So, looking tactically, small ball seems to be the most promising way to make this particular team competitive — or, at least, less un-competitive — in the short term.  If nothing else, maybe just settling in on one course of action and going with it will give the illusion of a little quiet.  It’s time for O’Brien to stop shuffling and just see if he can create a cohesive unit.

However, I really doubt it will make much difference — at least not in the standings.  The hole is too deep, and the cupboard is too bare.  Right now, this isn’t so much a case of confusing activity with accomplishment as it is a case of having activity when there’s simply no accomplishment to be had.

beggars choosers

The grass is always greener on the other side of the Venn diagram.

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Game #30 Recap: Pacers Play the Heel

by Jared Wade on December 30, 2009 at 12:27 pm

Pacers @ Bulls
95 Score 104
2 Largest Lead 19
100.0 Offensive Efficiency 109.5
46.1% eFG% 56.9%
41.1% (37/90) FG% 52.8% (38/72)
37.5% (9/24) 3PT% 60% (6/10)
66.7% (12/18) FT% 91.7% (22/24)
31 (8) Rebounds (Off.) 47 (7)
11 (7) Turnovers (Points Led To) 21 (17)
30 Points in the Paint 20
11 Fast Break Points 11
27 Assists 24
6 Steals 4
1 Blocks 6

Post-Game Essentials: Box Score | PM Game Flow | Play-By-Play | Shot Chart | Behind the Box Score | Indy Star Recap | Cornrows Recap | AP Recap | Pacer’s Digest Post Game

It was another ugly one, folks.

The Pacers came out missing everything and dug themselves a 19-point deficit by the end of the first quarter. Improved accuracy, better defense and an impressive-as-hell Josh McRoberts cameo in the second cut the lead to 4 at the half, and Indy even managed to thief the lead momentarily in the third quarter. But that house of cards was quickly blown down by the sonic boom left in the wake of Derrick Rose — and, oddly, Brad Miller — as they continually got by defenders and scored easily in the final 12 minutes.

More than anything, this game felt like a lot of the undercard wrestling matches I watched as a kid. On Saturday afternoon (or whenever these shows used to be on before the whole Monday Night Raw thing took off in primetime), there would only ever be one or two matches that were actually interesting (much like how last night in the NBA only Cavs/Hawks and perhaps Rockets/Hornets were marquee match ups).

But they still had an hour to fill. So, early in the show, someone like Jake the Snake would square off with an also-ran like The Brooklyn Brawler just to kill 10 minutes in between Cocoa Pebbles and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle action figure commercials.

Jake the Snake would come out to much fanfare and quickly start pounding away on the Brawler. A few punches to the face, a clothesline, a body slam and maybe even a supplex or two. Then, out of nowhere, the Brawler would catch Jake with a nutshot that turned the tide. He would pick Jake up, give em an eye gouge and throw in off the ropes before slamming him to the canvas. He would work Roberts over in the corner for a while, pummeling away on his skull until it looked like we might actually have a legitimate fight on our hands.

But, of course, that was all a ruse. The Brawler was never going to win that fight.

Jake got up, landed a few punches, swept the leg and then waited for the Brooklyn Brawler to get up before unleashing the match-ending DDT to put the lights out.

1-2-3.

Jake the Snake wins. Play the music.

The Pacers did an admirable job of keeping the game close last night during the middle portions, but the beginning and the end all belonged to the Bulls. And I don’t think anyone in the building really thought the Pacers were ever going to seize enough control of the game to take it over and win — even during the brief stretch in the third quarter when they took a 70-68 lead.

In fact, that was the exact moment the wheels fell off as quickly as it inevitably did for the Brooklyn Brawler.

John Salmons, a guy who had recently shot his way out of the Bulls starting lineup by going 26/81 (32.1%) in his last 8 games, hit a three. Dahntay Jones answered with a bucket of his own but the Bulls came back with a flurry of jumpers and free throws that fueled the 16-2 run over the final 6 minutes of the third quarter that ended Indy’s slim chance at a comeback win.

While the defensive lapses that allowed threes/long jumpers to Salmons, Brad Miller and Luol Deng were disheartening, it was the Pacers inability to put up any points up on the other end that all but determined the final outcome before the third quarter even ended. How an offense can so often go so long looking so inept, I’ll never understand, but, sure enough, the Pacers once again managed to go 6 minutes and 51 seconds without making a single field goal. (Two Earl Watson free throws were the only points Indy put up during the 16-2 run.)

The stretch just featured too many wasted possessions for me to recount. Too much standing around. Too many useless dribbles (I’m looking at you on that one Luther Head). Too many non-advantage creating swing passes (I’m looking at you, Coach).

Ultimately, too many bad shots.

And after that futility, all it took was a DDT from Derrick Rose in the form of his 11 fourth-quarter points (on an easy as Sunday morning 5/5 shooting) to complete the predetermined outcome that we all knew was coming even in the first quarter.

My advice to Pacers fans: Eat your vitamins and say your prayers, brother.

Five Bright Spots

(1) Josh McRoberts had a stellar second quarter and a good game overall. His alley-oop/three-pointer/alley-oop sequence was perhaps the highlight of the season. I really wish I was kidding, but I’m not even sure that I am. (OK, the Boston game was the highlight, I suppose, but this was certainly top five.)

(2) DUNKS. There were a bunch of them. Like, to the point Indy looked like a normal NBA team in terms of athleticism and getting easy buckets even. Unfortunately, dunks in the this league are often seen by fans more as signs of flashy, highlight reel decadence than what they really are: Easy shots to make. I’m not saying you can’t win if you can’t dunk (just ask Gregg Popovich how that is done), but those extra 5-6 dunks most teams other than the Pacers seem to get each night equal 10-12 points. That’s a big deal, particularly since guys like TJ Ford and Jeff Foster seem to miss so many layups — layups that many of the other players in the league would be dunking. As far as the Bulls game specifically, the two aforementioned McRoberts oops were the marquee ones, but Roy had a few and so did Solomon Jones. Speaking of…

(3) Solomon Jones. He looked good in his first-ever Pacer start. Only 3 rebounds in 23 minutes is Hibbertesque bad, but 6/9 shooting for 13 points is more than expected. Particularly since he didn’t seem to blow as many defensive assignments as usual, and he actually looked comfortable catching and shooting without hesitation (something that still eludes Tyler and Brandon Rush). Hopefully this endorsement from Coach O’Brien will give him a little confidence and keep him more engaged out there going forward.

(4) Pump fakes. I’m not sure whether it was just the fact that, as Tim Donahue tweeted during the game, “the Bulls are long on stupid,” but they sure did fall for a ton of shot fakes. Dunleavy had a few effective ones, Murph — per usual — did as well and Luther Head had one that just embarrassed the defender. Even Hibbert had some nice little up-and-under thing that I don’t really support him doing since he’s, ya know, 7 foot 2, but was nonetheless productive. I suppose most of this can just be attributed to Chicago employed Tyrus Thomas, but it might have been the best skill I’ve seen the Pacers master so far this season over a 48-minute stretch.

(5) There is no five. Sorry for lying, but I like round numbers. OK … here’s something: We got to see former Pacer fan favorite Brad Miller go by someone off the dribble on multiple occasions for the first time since, let’s say, 2006. Thanks for instigating some nostalgia, Roy Hibbert. And while I’ve got you here, please stop having nights where you miss 60% of your shots, please and thank you. You’re 7′2″, dude.

the brooklyn brawler

He even dresses like Josh McRoberts.

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UPDATE: Cap & Trade: Options Picked Up on Roy, Rush

by Jared Wade on November 1, 2009 at 5:03 pm

From Mike Wells this morning:

The Pacers have turned in the paperwork to pick up the third-year option on Rush and Hibbert’s contracts.

This is no surprise, and I had noted their contract amounts in an earlier Cap & Trade.

Hibbert has shown some improvement over last year, averaging 7 points and just over 7 boards in his first two games.  However, he’s only shooting 44% and has looked very slow.  Fouling continues to limit his minutes and effectiveness, as he’s getting whistled for just under 7 fouls every 36 minutes.

Brandon Rush has started the first two games, or at least that’s the rumor.  I guess “non-existent” would be the polite way to describe his performance.

In any case, it’s far too early to know for sure what kind of players either of these guys will be, so the Pacers made the no-brainer move of picking up their options.

UPDATE: The team announced this news officially today, and Jimmy had some perspective to add that will hopefully comfort fans who are already on suicide watch about how the team has looked in its first two games.

“To a large extent, what we have to realize and what we have to have is a certain degree of patience with Roy, Brandon and Solomon (Jones, Hibbert’s backup),” said Coach Jim O’Brien. “Solomon is in his third or fourth year but he hasn’t played much. So we’re playing with two (second-year players as) starters and the guy coming off the bench at the center spot just doesn’t have enough reps and minutes under his belt.

“Just because Brandon had a good last month (in 2008-09) and Roy had a good last month doesn’t mean they all of a sudden are going to come in and be dominant individuals. They’re just not. My job is to try to grow the young guys and right now we’re just at the point where these guys have to play basketball and play aggressive and make things happen instead of hoping things will happen.”

Relying on young guys is always a gamble. Unless they are Derrick Rose, they are wildly incosistent, which makes sense because they are not only dealing with trying to figure out how to be effective in a league full of players who are way better than anyone they’ve ever played against, but also trying to figure out how to adjust to an entirely differnt lifestyle and income bracket.

Unfortunately, this team needs consistent production now.

How is Dunleavy feeling again?

And in other bad news, Jeff Foster’s suffered the dreaded “high ankle sprain” that usually takes a while of rest to heal. The Pacers characterized the official timetable as “a couple of weeks.”

Not good. Mike Wells, however, has reported that Tyler Hansbrough could make his debut next Friday in Conseco against Washington. One the one hand, that’s one more young, inconsistent guy in the rotation. On the other, that’s one more able-bodied player in the rotation.

Hurry up, Tyler.

pacers halloween

Dahntay, Roy, Tyler and Earl were delighting the kids with a song that might become the anthem of the Pacers 2009-10 season: “If Dunleavy only had a knee…” (Image: Frank McGrath/Pacers)

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Game #1 Preview: Sekou Smith Talks Hawks

by Jared Wade on October 28, 2009 at 9:14 am

The plan we’ve conjured up in the 8.9 Lab is to provide yall with a preview of every game this season. Generally, we’ll put them up the day of. On occasion, they may go up earlier. And at other times, life will get in the way and they will not appear at all. Thems the breaks, but we’ll do our very best to bring it for all 82.

We’ll probably mix up the format from game to game to keep things interesting, sometimes interviewing people more familiar with the opponent and other times just writing a straight preview ourselves. Maybe we’ll even dig up some wildcard methods here and there to keep you on your toes. For the opener, however, we obviously don’t have a ton of interesting things to say other than “Welcome back, oh sweet, sweet NBA basketball goodness.”

Thus, I reached out to a man who always has a ton of interesting things to say: Sekou Smith

Many of you are already very familiar with Sekou from his work covering the Pacers, among other things, at the Indianapolis Star from 2002 to December 2004. To the dismay of many a Hoosier, he took his reporter hat and engaging prose with him to Atlanta thereafter and has since been holding down the Hawks beat for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, blogging regularly on the paper’s Hawks Blog and relaying all the NBA news fit to tweet through his @sekousmith01 feed.

Honestly, who could be better to provide some perspective on tonight’s season opener for both the Pacers and the Hawks from the ATL? And fortunately, he was gracious enough to share some of his vast Hawks knowledge with you 8p9s readers.

Here’s a Q&A we did yesterday, with me asking the Qs and Sekou bringing the As.

atlanta hawks logo

Between Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford, the Hawks have a ton of offensive firepower in the back court — and three guys who all took a ton of threes last year (each had more than 5 three-point attempts per game last season). Do you see them all continuing to put up a lot of shots or do you see either Bibby or Joe making a concerted effort to make sure guys like Horford and Josh Smith get more shots near the hoop?

I don’t know that Bibby or Joe will sacrifice shots for the other guys, but I think their minutes (should be) curbed to the point that they’ll be forced to give up some shots in the process. If anything, I think Crawford’s assist game will stun some people, mostly because he’s such a willing passer, and he’ll be on the floor with guys that can finish (Smith, Horford, Joe and Marvin Williams).

There are two things I think most NBA players are loathe to surrender (consciously) and that’s shots and minutes. So don’t expect any humanitarian moves from anyone for the sake of the greater good.

Speaking of Josh Smith and threes, he said this summer that he needs to stay away from the allure of the perimeter and instead focus on getting to the rim off the dribble and scoring in the paint. Will he abide by that pledge or will he fall back into settling for too many jumpers?

He’s going to take some jumpers. There’s no doubt about that. But in seven preseason games he didn’t take a single 3-pointer. That’s a stunning stretch for a guy that treats threes like those old Lay’s potato chip ads (”Bet you just can’t eat one”). Well, some of Josh’s teammates have wondered aloud if he’ll be able to keep from taking just one. Time will tell. It’s obvious that his game is far more effective when he’s doing other things. Plus, there are so many other guys capable that he needs to steer clear of the three-point line anyway.

People forget that Marvin Williams is only 23 years old. And last year, he started to look like he was really about to begin making good on some of his enormous potential. How has he looked in camp and will we see his game progress even further this year?

I’ve been getting roasted on my own blog for floating the idea that Marvin was having a breakout season last year before being sacked by that back injury late in the season. He’s looked good in camp and Marvin’s always been better than he gets credit for. He’s always going to get venom around here because he’s not Chris Paul or Deron Williams. I thought that theme would have vanished a bit by now, but it remains strong.

He’s still a youngster, as are Josh Smith and Al Horford. So they’ve all still got room to improve. One of them has to move up to the next level this year if the Hawks want to challenge for anything more than the fourth spot and another 12-15 game playoff run.

No one ever talks about Zaza. But he’s got a cool name and a solid game to match. Discuss.

No one ever talks about Zaza? Where? He’s a fan favorite down here. Maybe not to Austin Croshere proportions, but folks down here love him. Some love to hate him because of his antics on the offensive end and his complaining to the officials. But he earns his money, which can’t be said for a lot of 7-footers in the NBA. (You know who you are).

Zaza is a renaissance man of sorts. He’s a restaurateur, a fashion icon (mostly in his own mind, ha) and one of the all-around best cats you’ll ever meet. His game isn’t sexy and he’s not going to tote the load for you as a starter, but he’s a valuable player here. There’s no shame in that.

Few Pacer fans — or any NBA fans, honestly — know much about Solomon Jones. Were you ever impressed by anything other than his athleticism and do you think he will emerge as a decent rotation guy for the Pacers this year?

Solo was always intriguing here. Remember, he was the Hawks’ second-round pick the year they whiffed with Shelden Williams as the fifth pick in the draft. It took me all of two weeks of rookie camp to realize that Solo had more physical potential than Shelden. He was just so raw. He worked at it, though, which is a credit to the kid. He worked on his offensive game and did what he could to improve his physical deficiencies. That’s what I want to see out of a developmental player in his first couple of years.

The thing I’ve always liked best about Solo, though, is that he’ll dish out a hard foul. He slapped the DNA off of Andre Iguodala a couple years ago and got tangled up with Dwyane Wade in the playoffs last year without hesitation. That impresses me, when a dude like that isn’t afraid to knock a superstar on his tail. I was sad to see Solo leave. At the same time, I realized he was going to a situation (and particularly an offense) that suited his talents a little better.

Jeff Teague is a guy I thought would have been a great fit for the Pacers back court. How’s he looking so far and what do you expect from his as a pro?

Teague has been fantastic, sans his 0-for-everything shooting performance from the floor in the preseason finale Friday in Orlando. I lived in Pike Township when I was in Indy, so I knew he came from good prep basketball stock. I watched very little of him at Wake Forest, so I had to do some research on him this summer with people I know back in Indy and around the league. Everyone raved about his game and his personality, and they were right. He seems like a great kid.

The key to his season will be consistent minutes. If he starts in the 12-18 range and moves into the 20-25 range as the season goes on, I can see him being a major factor for this team. The only missing piece to his game right now is a consistent outside stroke. That’ll come with work before and after practice, which he’s been putting in alongside Mike Bibby, Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford on a daily basis. That’s good company for a young guy.

You left the Indianapolis Star very soon after the brawl. How has it been to watch all the turmoil of the past few years and how do you view the overall state of the franchise now? More specifically, how do you think the team will do this season?

I did leave right after the brawl. The Christmas day rematch game between the Pacers and Pistons was my last day. I’ve been floored by all the fallout since then. Mark Montieth and I have had many long conversations about it since then. I’m not sure I’ve witnessed a more complete gutting of a once-proud franchise in such a short period of time. And I certainly have no idea if you can point to just one culprit. (I know Ron Artest is the easy target.)

Still to this day, I’ve thought that the turning point was the summer they had to decide what to do with Brad Miller and Jermaine O’Neal. Plenty of people have disagreed with me on that, including Mark (who remains a great friend to this day). I just felt like free agency forced them to dismantle a team on the cusp of something big. Once the core of that team was scattered it was pretty much a matter of time. More than anything, it reminded me what a hell of a job Donnie Walsh did building that thing the way he did. To last that long in this era of professional sports is an accomplishment in itself. Donnie held it together for so long, so to see some people taking shots at him once he left was more than a bit disingenuous to me. The brawl and the aftermath just sped up the process.

As for this season, I won’t count them out before actually seeing them with my own eyes. But I don’t have them in the pool of playoff hopefuls I’m expecting big things from.

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By the Numbers: Recapping the Preseason

by Tim Donahue on October 27, 2009 at 9:13 am

The NBA preseason is what it is. It’s slightly more meaningful than the NFL preseason, and slightly less meaningful than whether or not Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow. That doesn’t mean that we can’t throw out some numbers to provide some things to watch when the games actually count.

3 – 4

The Pacers record during the preseason might be the biggest foreshadowing for the season. It extrapolates to 35 wins over an 82-game season, and that sounds about right to me.

.429

This is the opponents’ field goal percentage for the preseason, which was 8th out of 30 teams. This is a point of emphasis for Coach O’Brien, whose pace of play makes the points allowed stat somewhat misleading. This is about two full percentage points below the league average.

105.2

The Pacers allowed almost 4 fewer points per 100 during the preseason. Despite this and the OppFG% figures, Jim O’Brien was still unsatisfied with the teams’ defensive performance, explaining it away as the defenses being ahead of the offenses early. It seems that there’s good reason, because:

24th

Despite the improvement over last year, the Pacers defensive rating ranked 24th in the preseason. The average points per 100 possessions during the preseason were about 103, compared to 108 for the 2009 regular season.

101.4

The Pacers offensive output per 100 possessions was horrendous. In their four losses, Indiana averaged less than 94 points per 100 and shot a paltry 41% from the floor.

40.1

That would be the number of free throws per game shot by Pacer opponents. The league average was 31, and nobody else had more than 39.

60

Points the Pacers were outscored by at the free throw line. They were only outscored by 28 points overall.

27.7 & .335

The number of three-point attempts per game in the preseason and the success rate (or lack thereof). This is almost 7 more attempts per game than last season, but almost 4 full percentage points lower.

50%

Portion of Danny Granger’s field goal attempts taken from beyond the arc. That’s too high.

7.7 vs. 8.2

Solomon Jones’ rebounds per 36 minutes as compared to his personal fouls per 36 minutes. That’s not real encouraging.

24.9

Number of minutes per night that T-Murda (Troy Murphy) needed to average 12.7 points an 9.7 rebounds. Only shot 38% from three, though. Slacker.

6.2

Fouls per 36 minutes committed by Roy Hibbert, which sounds ugly until you compare it to his 7.7 pace last year. Somewhat more encouraging is that he did it with replacement refs that were calling almost 25% more fouls per game than were whistled last season. This is important, because …

13.6, 5.4, 3.6 & 24

Roy’s points, rebounds, blocks and minutes per night in the preseason. If he can do this when it matters, well, boys and girls, we have ourselves a center.

1.4 to 1

TJ Ford’s shot-to-assist ratio, which is down about 40% from last season. He did struggle with turnovers (4 per game), but it does look like he’s at least trying to heed O’Brien’s call for him to give up the ball.

4.1 to 1

AJ Price’s shot-to-assist ratio. The rookie second rounder spent much of the preseason looking more like an undersized ‘2′ than any possible future answer at the point.

4

The number of games missed by each of Jeff Foster and Luther Head due to lingering injuries.

Zero

This could mean a lot of things. It could mean the number of wins the impressive victories against Denver and Houston will net us in the regular season. It could represent the number of losses that will result from the ugly defeats to Denver and Orlando.

However, the most meaningful thing related to zero to come out of the preseason for the Pacers is this: number of games played by Mike Dunleavy and first-round draft pick Tyler Hansbrough.

Punxsutawney Phil

It’s neck and neck as to whether the Pacers’ preseason performance will tell us more about the upcoming season than this fella could.

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The Summer Losses: Rasho Nesterovic

by Jared Wade on October 26, 2009 at 8:49 pm

Rasho Nesterovic joined the Pacers for one primary purpose: his contract allowed the Pacers to trade of Jermaine O’Neal for TJ Ford and the draft pick that would become Roy Hibbert. Sure, Larry Bird had to be happy to convince Bryan Colangelo to insert a serviceable, professional veteran like Rasho as the financial piece needed to get the deal done under the CBA, but it’s hard to believe that the 7′ Slovenian was ever seen as anything but a one-year, fill-in center for rent.

And when he struggled with injury in the first week of the season, it started to look like even “serviceable” tag might be in jeopardy. But as he has done throughout his career, Rasho quickly bounced back. And on the court, he impressed.

In 27 games before the New Year, Rasho put up double-digit points 13 times and shot 53.4% from the field overall. There was no mistaking that he was 32-years-old and his days of being even a marginal rebounding presence were clearly behind him, but he surprised many fans who hadn’t seen him play since his Spurs days with his midrange shooting and his overall skill-set. Unfortunately, Rasho’s quick early start combined with a lack of other great options up front probably pushed coach Jim O’Brien to overuse the big fella.

By the time January rolled around, his productivity had dropped noticeably and rookie center Roy Hibbert proved unable to pick up the slack. And once Jeff Foster started struggling with injuries of his own, it became clear that the front court was going to be a problem all year.

Looking back, Rasho was a fine player. He always has been. But at 32, he just can’t bring much of what his younger self offered to the table, aside from his soft jumpers and the occasional nifty bucket in the post. Defensively, he has also regressed. It’s not that he has forgotten the fundamental principles he learned from Coach Popovich in San Antonio; it’s just that his mobility no longer allows him to do much besides serve as a physical barricade. At 7′-tall, sure, that was enough to be effective at times, but he was generally a liability next to any big man with any semblance of quickness. Although, on this team, it’s not like he was the only big man guilty of that charge.

That’s how I saw it anyway.

Still, much like the ball, numbers don’t lie. And the stats say that from an objective, numerical standpoint, Rasho will be more difficult to replace than it may seem. Here’s what Indiana lost when Rasho decided to head back up across the border to Toronto:

Rasho Nesterovic in 2008-09

Traditional
PPG – 9th (6.8)
RPG – 8th (3.4)
FG% – 2nd (.513)
BPG – 9th (0.5)

Advanced*
PER – 6th (14.1)
TS% – 8th (.524)
ORtg – 6th (108)
DRtg – 7th (109)
WS – 6th (2.2)
OWS – 7th (1.1)
DWS – 9th (1.1)

* PER – Player Efficiency Rating | TS% – True Shooting Percentage | ORtg – Offensive Rating | DRtg – Defensive Rating | WS – Win Shares | OWS – Offensive Win Shares | DWS – Defensive Win Shares

It says a lot about the talent and depth in this front court that a guy who struggled mightily throughout the second half of the year can rank so high on a team in the advanced stat categories. After the draft in June, I was disappointed that the Pacers opted to address the front court rather than picking an impact guard. Looking at these figures, however, it makes more sense that the interior would be a priority. The catch-22 is that the back court needs a ton of help as well, but if this team is ever going to improve defensively, it is going to need some guys who can man the paint.

Is Tyler Hansbrough such a guy? Until he puts his current shin problems behind him, it remains somewhat moot. But the front office has to be hoping that whatever a rookie like Tyler may lack in savvy and understanding of the NBA game, he will be able to make up for in effort. Roy, too, will need to prove capable of playing more minutes — with the two main factors against him doing such being his conditioning and his inability to stay out of foul trouble. I’m not one to care about preseason trends, but the fact that Hibbert led the entire league in blocks during fake hoops season without spending too, too much time in foul touble has to be somewhat encouraging.

At this point, I think we know what the team is going to get out of Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster. Aside from Danny Granger — who, as crazy as it sounds, still could improve even more — those two veteran big men are the closest thing this roster has to sure things. Sure, it’s certainly possible that Troy won’t quite match the numbers he put up last year, but we generally know what he will provide. And Jeff? Well, he’s Jeff.

So to replace what Rasho provided last year, Coach O’Brien is going to have to look to Tyler and Roy. One would think that a natural sophomore improvement from Hibbert and a youthful exuberance from Hansbrough would come close to doing exactly that. But people are generally too quick to mistake the solid-if-unremarkable contributions of a guy like Rasho with easily replaceable mediocrity.

If Roy is going to become a player that Indy can rely on as a starting center over the next half decade, and if Tyler is a guy who was worth taking over the likes of high-ceiling guards like Jeff Teague and Ty Lawson, then, yeah, what Rasho did last year shouldn’t be that hard to replace. But if either of those things doesn’t prove true, then the 09-10 Pacer front court might be even more of a problem than the one fans had to watch last season.

And if that’s the case, it might be time to just cross your fingers and hope Solomon Jones can translate some of that athleticism into basketball talent.

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