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TJ Ford

Who Can the Pacers Trade?

by Jared Wade on February 23, 2011 at 2:44 pm · 0 comments

Carmelo is a Knick. Deron is a Net. Carl Landry is a Hornet. Someone named James Johnson is a Raptor. Yup … must be trade deadline week.

The Pacers now have a little more than 24 hours to complete a deal this season. Given their plethora of expiring deals, at least two of which belong to guys who I presume would be desirable to playoff squads, I have long expected them to do something before next summer to improve the roster. Then again, some of Larry Bird’s comments in regards to providing Herb Simon with as many options as possible and a “clean slate” could lead us to believe the team will stand pat unless an absolute gem of a deal is offered.

Regardless, if the Pacers are going to make a move (and Mike Wells expects them to call the now-fire-selling Utah Jazz about Paul Millsap or Al Jefferson), it would be helpful to know exactly what they have to offer. They of course can make every player on the roster available (*cough* Brandon Rush *cough*) and they still have all their future first round draft picks. You can envision as many possible scenarios as you want including picks and/or Rush, Tyler Hansbrough, Josh McRoberts and the other guys who almost certainly aren’t going anywhere (Danny Granger, Paul George, Roy Hibbert and Darren Collison), but here’s a quick look at the three guys most likely to be sent packing before Friday morning.

Mike Dunleavy, Jr.

Contract: Makes $10.6 million this year; becomes free agent this summer
2010-11 Stats: 29 mpg | 11.2 ppg | 4.8 rpg | 1.8 apg | FG: 45.7% | 3PT: 40.7%

Desirability Around the League: Lil Dun would seemingly be a great acquisition for any contender. He is posting career-high shooting percentages from the field and behind the arc while also rebounding well and not turning the ball over. He’s a savvy vet who could be a big offensive boost to any team’s bench. He doesn’t play defense but you already knew that.

Who Might Want Him: MDJ would be a perfect fit for San Antonio. SVG would love him on offense. Boston already has a lot of depth but I think they could find some minutes. The only problem is who is a contender willing to give up? And are they willing to give up anyone the Pacers want? The answers to those two questions are probably (1) no one of importance, and (2) no. Thus, Indy probably can’t get a ton of mileage out of the added benefit of Dunleavy playing well this year in addition to being an expiring deal. (This is why, in my view, they should have acted sooner here and tried to pry something away from a delusional team that thought they were close to contending last fall.) So they have to find a partner who just wants salary relief in exchange for a player on a longer-term deal. For example, if Bird wanted to target Millsap, they would likely have to take back a negative asset like the high-salaried Mehmet Okur. Perhaps something like this.

Jeff Foster

Contract: Makes $6.7 million this year; becomes free agent this summer
2010-11 Stats: 18 mpg | 6.8 rpg | 3.2 Orpg | Rebound Rate: 21.0 | Off. Rebound Rate: 19.9

Desirability Around the League: Jeff is posting the highest offensive rebound rate of his career and is generally just rebounding like an absolute fool now that he looks healthy again for the first time in a few years. He’s a pro’s pro and plays first-rate defense. There isn’t a coach in the NBA who wouldn’t want Jeff Foster on his bench.

Who Might Want Him: Trying to deal Jeff has the same problems as trying to deal Dunleavy Part II: Anyone who actually wants him as more than an expiring deal will not want to give anything up. Still, he is a big guy and desperate teams might do desperate things. The Spurs would seemingly love some extra size to go against the 21-foot front line of Pau/Bynum/Odom. Would they give up Gary Neal? Only in my man-crush fantasies where the NBA rules about salaries matching in trades don’t exist. (San Antonio is pretty much impossible for Indy to deal with salary-wise.) Again … tough to find a good partner here. Foster and Hansbrough for Millsap works.

TJ Ford

Contract: Makes $8.5 million this year; becomes free agent this summer
2010-11 Stats: They’re really, really, unthinkably bad. Don’t even look at them in the presence of children under the age of 13

Desirability Around the League: n/a

Who Might Want Him: Any team looking to shed $8.5 million in salary. HEY … Paul Millsap makes around that amount. Throw in Okur and have Indy throw in Foster plus a pick and let’s get the paperwork signed.

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Improving Defense from the Point Guard Spot

by Jared Wade on January 26, 2011 at 6:29 pm · 3 comments

In the below video, coach Jim O’Brien, Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy, Jr. discuss the Pacers playoff chances at the midway point of the season. Obviously they are all still optimistic and think they can make the postseason. We knew they would say that.

The interesting part starts at the 2:34 mark when coach Jim O’Brien starts talking about how demoting TJ Ford may hurt the team’s defense. Even though I know it’s true, it’s still weird to hear; TJ has been the team’s best defender at the point guard position this season.

And he is is now out of the rotation.

Now, I don’t think TJ is a terrible defender — he’s just an undersized guy with flaws — but his status as best PG defender on the team is less about him being really good and more about Darren Collison being really bad.

Particularly in the pick-and-roll, DC has just been out to lunch all season. He fails to fight through the screens and takes way too long to recover. When he goes under the screen, the ball-handler all too often has a good look at a mid-range jumper. When he goes over the screen, he is usually way too slow and can’t prevent the ball-handler from penetrating into the thick of the defense or otherwise causing havoc by dishing it around the perimeter. And no matter whether he goes under or over, he is almost always so slow to recover that it leaves the guy guarding the screener exposed, forcing him to hedge at the dribbler to mitigate the quick play while at the same time keeping track of his own man, who is either rolling to the hoop for a layup or popping to open space for a jumpshot. Aside from Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett in their primes (neither of which are on the 2010-11 Indiana Pacers, FYI), there aren’t many players in the history of this sport that can contain both players in a pick-and-roll for as long as Darren’s lackluster recovery demands.

In addition to the hours of game film illustrating these failings, there are some numbers that show just how bad he has been, both in pick-and-roll situations and just overall.

In Darren Collison’s 1,028 minutes on the court this season, the Pacers have given up 107.8 points per 100 possessions — more than three points per 100 worse than the team’s overall 104.5 per 100.

Worse still, in the 801 minutes the team has played with Collison off the floor, the Pacers only give up 100.1 points per 100 possessions. For reference, only one NBA team has a stingier defense than the Pacers units have posted when Collison sits. (The Bulls only give up 99.4 points per 100 possessions.) As is always the case in a game that requires teams to play 5 on 5, there are definitely other rotation-based factors involved in addition to simply whether or not DC is in the game. But a swing of nearly 8 points is pretty damning circumstantial evidence.

With TJ now out of the rotation and AJ Price not exactly a defensive stopper himself, it seems obvious that Darren is going to have to improve if the team hopes to maintain its top ten defensive ranking. And for Indiana to make the playoffs, that seems a prerequisite. I believe that the team’s offense (currently the 7th worst in the league) will improve. But it certainly won’t improve to the degree that it can become a staple for winning this year.

Ultimately, the road to the playoffs is paved with defense.

And Darren Collison must improve his.

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Playing Two Point Guards Together

by Jared Wade on December 22, 2010 at 12:05 pm · 1 comment

Fans have grown accustomed to two-point-guard lineups in recent years. This year, however, there has been little opportunity — or need — to play the diminutive Darren Collison alongside the even-more-miniature TJ Ford.

But they tried it against New Orleans for only the second time this season (with the first being an unsuccessful, three-minute pairing on opening night against the Spurs).

Mike Wells of the Indianapolis Star reports why.

O’Brien made the move because Mike Dunleavy was struggling to defend Jack and Marcus Thornton.

“(Monday) was a day it presented itself,” O’Brien said. “(Dunleavy’s) not going to guard Jack off pick-and-rolls. Thornton is kind of a real small guy, so we just went with a small lineup. It worked out well for us.”

Collison was the point guard and Ford shooting guard in that lineup.

“If teams go small, you can do it and get away with it,” Ford said. “At the same time, I think it will be hard to do it consistently when you have guys like Mike and Brandon (Rush) playing so well stretching the floor.”

Again, given the point Ford makes at the end there and just the statures of Collison and Ford, I don’t expect this to become a regular thing. But it’s at least sort of nice to know that it can be an option when teams like the Hornets or Mavs (who have been known to run out a bunch of pipsqueaks) go small.

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Breaking Down the Pacers Buzzer-Beating Win

by Jared Wade on December 21, 2010 at 3:41 pm · 0 comments

Huge and much-need win for the Pacers last night. While the elation of the final tip-in was wonderful, it’s hard not to think that it shouldn’t have come to that. Indiana played fantastic defense in the first quarter in particular and held New Orleans to 39.8% shooting for the game. They led by as much as 13 points in the first half and caught (or helped force … probably both) an off-night for all-world point guard Chris Paul.

Then things got increasingly sloppy and the increasingly bad play of Roy Hibbert (2 points on 1-for-10 shooting and 0-for-0 from the line, 3 rebounds and 3 turnovers in 24 minutes) started to make it look like the Pacers would lose. It just started to feel like Indy had blown too many opportunities to put away a team that wasn’t playing well. Someone was going to have to win this one, and the Pacers looked just as uninterested in doing so as the Hornets.

As it so often does, it came down to the end.

Neither team executed beautifully throughout the final two minutes, but each team made some big plays. In the video below, I’ve done a breakdown of the final six possessions, highlighting both the good and the bad points for the Pacers.

Here’s a complementary written breakdown from Tim Donahue on the pick-and-pop from CP3 and David West that put New Orleans up by 1 with 3 seconds to play.

The Hornets run that play better than anyone else in the league, and Paul and West are the best pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop combination in the game. They executed it perfectly.

Foster was staying in the lane, and West came all the way out the three-point line to set the pick. Ford tried to go under, but West actually hopped a little to his right and caught Ford — hanging him up for a second. It was an illegal screen, but the type that never gets called. (Watch a replay of Foster sliding to his right to try to set a screen for Danny on the following play.)

Paul, meanwhile slides at an angle towards the elbow, creating enough space so to make it hard to cover both players. After Ford gets disengaged from West, he frantically tries to recover, and then — and this makes the play — Paul pump fakes a shot. The pump fake does two crucial things.

First, it gets Ford in the air and moving between Paul and the basket, which opens up a pristine passing lane to get the ball back to West. Second, it gets Foster to take one step up to challenge the shot — a half-jump that delays his recovery to West just enough to make sure West doesn’t have to rush it.

Beautiful work by the best in the business at it.

The other big thing was what New Orleans did with the other three guys. They got them completely out of the play. The wings — Jarrett Jack and Marco Belinelli both stood on the the sideline outside of the three-point arc, and Okafor actually set up out of bounds on the baseline. Jack and Belinelli drifted waiting for the pass, and Okafor came in bounds directly under the basket and started pushing Posey out to get rebounding position.

It was set up so that any help besides from any of the three defenders not involved in the pick-and-roll defense would have opened up a guy for a good look at the basket — leaving Ford and Foster on an island of sorts.

I criticize the Pacers for this play a little bit in the video, but Tim’s take is definitely more nuanced. Ultimately, this play is a lot like the Andrew Bogut tip-in game-winner: really good execution. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap. (Still, TJ letting himself get man-handled that badly can’t be considered good work.)

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