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TJ Ford

I fully expect that at least one of TJ Ford, Mike Dunleavy and Jeff Foster will be traded during this season. All three are in the final year of their contracts and between then and the soon-to-end buyout the team gave Jamaal Tinsley, Indiana will will shed more than $31 million in payroll next summer.

Cap space is great to have but this summer is not 2010. There are a few guys I’m sure the front office would love to target, but I think we all understand that even an improving team playing in Indianapolis is not the marquee free agent draw that, say, New York or Miami is. So it would probably make sense for Larry Bird to use some of this expiring salary as an asset to make a deal. I imagine that the closer we get to the deadline and the impending lockout that is nearly certain to happen next summer while the players and owners haggle over the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, the more NBA owners will be pressuring their GMs to shed some salary if they can. Just makes sense to cut some payroll in times of uncertainty.

So Bird will almost certainly get a few decent offers. Maybe he opts to keep the team together as is since they are (at least as of now) exceeding expectations. But I don’t think a 7th seed in the playoffs is his ultimate goal, so I’m sure he would be willing to shake things up a little bit if he thought it would improve the team for the future.

All this means that Jeff Foster’s future with the Pacers is far from certain. He hopes to stay. (h/t Pacers Digest)

“It’s extremely important,” Foster told HOOPSWORLD on the significance of ending his career as a member of the Pacers organization. “I never thought about going anywhere else. Those thoughts have never even crossed my mind.”

“I guess in a way it’s a scary thought,” continued Foster in regards to the prospect of ever having to play elsewhere during his career. “But we’ll see how things go the rest of the year and see what plays out with the lockout next year. But nothing would make me happier than to finish my career as a Pacer. So that’s what I plan on doing and hopefully we’ll be able to follow that through.”

Even if he does need to be included as a trade asset in February, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bird bring him back next year. Age has taken its toll and he’s not even close to being the player he once was, but he has been a Pacer lifer and I think, even if he is traded, we’ll see him back in Conseco next season.

After that? Who know?

Maybe after his playing days are over he will go on to found the Jeff Foster Center For Children Who Can’t Read Good (And Who Want to Learn to Do Other Stuff Good, Too).

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As we have seen on multiple occasions, Darren Collison doesn’t always close games at point guard for the Pacers. Sometimes, TJ Ford finishes things. Saturday in Atlanta, Darren didn’t even play at all in the fourth quarter.

This is frustrating to Darren, writes Mike Wells of the Indianapolis Star.

“I don’t know why I didn’t play,” said Collison, who has started all 19 games he’s appeared in.

“I’m not going to lie, it’s been tough. Right now, I’m not used to it. It is what it is.”

O’Brien liked what Price could bring to the Pacers, so he got his shot.

“I thought our best chance of coming back was with A.J. in the game because he spaces the court, he shoots the 3 and he also needed playing time,” O’Brien said. “I also think he did a nice job.”

O’Brien has sat Collison in the past because he prefers Ford’s experience. Collison’s problem is that he’s still having a difficult time running the offense and playing the type of aggressive defense O’Brien wants.

Collison is averaging 13.5 points and 4.2 assists in more than 28 minutes a game.

“It’s real tough, but I guess you have to control things when you’re in the game,” Collison said. “When you’re not in the game, you just have to stay in tuned and try to help other guys.”

Aside from the normal ups and downs of winning and losing, things have by and large been smooth sailing in Indiana so far this year. There was the summer arrest of Lance Stephenson and the five-game suspension of Brandon Rush for failing a drug test, but there has been almost no turmoil since.

Given that, it will be interesting to see how this reverberates over the days and weeks to come. Stay tuned.

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Return on Investment

by Tim Donahue on December 7, 2010 at 8:40 pm · 1 comment

Apparently, the Pacers have a really expensive bench.  Of course, the flip side is that the Pacers get the services of Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert, Darren Collison, and Brandon Rush for a little less ($16.1 million) than Atlanta pays for Joe Johnson ($16.3 million).

Also just wanted to throw this out there: Backup point guard TJ Ford ($8.5 million) and backup power Forward James Posey  ($7.1 million) …

… are allowing fewer than 91 points per 100 possessions in the 216 minutes the two have been on the floor together.

Well, it may not be priceless, but it might be worth a playoff spot.

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Dan Feldman today put together an excellent post about just how much the Pistons are paying their bench players. His conclusion, that Detroit is second only to the Pacers, tells us a decent amount about the relative futility of the two franchises over the past few seasons.

First off, I think Dan must have erroneously included Jamaal Tinsley’s salary into his calculation that Indy, with $39.7 million tied up in non-starters, leads the league in bench spending. Obviously, Jamaal is no longer on the “bench,” and while his salary remains a burden on the team’s salary cap, he shouldn’t be included here. Practically, this doesn’t change much, however. Even once we remove the $5.4 million that ShamSports says Tinsley is making this year, the Pacers have $34.1 million tied up in its bench — still good for third-highest in the NBA after Detroit and Dallas.

This is too much for a team in Indiana’s financial position.

If you look at the squads who spend the most of their bench (click through … there’s a nice little chart), it isn’t necessarily a list of bad teams. We have the Mavs, Magic and Lakers all in the top ten, for example. But we have to remember that the NBA has a soft salary cap that allows those with deep pockets to continue to dump money into salary as long as they are prepared to pay the luxury tax.

Indiana is decidedly not a team with deep pockets.

So rather than just looking at total bench salary commitments, let’s look at bench salary commitments as a percentage of total team salary. Here’s that chart. (Again, Dan’s number is slightly off for the Pacers but not so much to change the main point I will get to.)

If you start from the right side, you will notice that a lot of very good teams have the lion’s share of their payrolls allocated for their starters. San Antonio, Utah, Boston, Denver, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, Orlando and Atlanta are the top nine teams in terms of giving the bulk of their payroll to starters. Aside from Phoenix and perhaps Denver, we’re talking about seven of the best 10 teams in the league.

Another good team, Chicago (who is 14th in terms of spending payroll on starters), spends a little more on its bench, but the Bulls, like Dallas (who ranks 18th), don’t really care how much they spend given their market and current ambitions to compete with Boston, Orlando and Miami for the Eastern Conference title. The only other rather good team that proportionally spends a lot on its bench is Oklahoma City. But that has less to do with a reserve spending spree than the fact that Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green are all starters who are still on their cheap rookie contracts. The Thunder simply have found inexpensive, young players to start for them — and play incredible basketball. Must be nice.

Most of the other franchises that disproportionally dole out salary for guys not good enough to start simply aren’t that good. The roster becomes a collection of good-not-great players who all make middling salaries. The winning formula in the NBA generally requires that a team has a few very-high-salaried stars that start. Aside from the Pistons in 2004 (who weren’t exactly thrifty with their starters), we have teams like the Kobe/Shaq Lakers, Timmy/Manu/Tony Spurs, Big 3 Celtics and Kobe/Pau Lakers winning titles over the past decade.

Fortunately, the Pacers have a ton of expensive middling players coming off their books at the end of the year. Whether or not they chose to trade the expiring deals of some or any of Mike Dunleavy (who makes $10.6 million), TJ Ford ($8.5 million) or Jeff Foster ($6.7 million) remains the largest off-the-court issue of the season.

We shall see.

Regardless, the team’s ratio of starter salary to bench salary will likely look a lot better next year than it does this season. And that probably means they will be better.

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