Rahat Huq of Red94, Ryan Schwan of Hornets247, Sebastian Pruiti of Nets are Scorching and I all got together to provide assessments of the outgoing players from their respective ballclubs.

Rahat Huq of Red94 on Trevor Ariza

I’ve written a comprehensive series of essays on Trevor Ariza entitled ‘Assessing Ariza,’ evaluating his strengths, weaknesses, and player potential.  (Parts 1, 2, and 3)

In short, he’s an ideal role-player who thrives off the ball, spotting up or using his superior athleticism to slash to the basket.  Now having the benefit of playing next to Chris Paul, I expect Ariza to return to form from his playoff run with the Lakers – he really took off after the acquisition of Kevin Martin; Ariza is at his best playing next to dominant players.

If you’re hoping Trevor will grow into his physical gifts and emerge as a primary option, you’re going to be disappointed.  While a capable ball-handler against light pressure, he doesn’t have the handles to create for himself off the dribble.  He also has extremely poor footwork and body control.  Even worse, Ariza has an oddly inflated sense of entitlement–possibly due to his Lakers pedigree–leading him to force bad shots and make poor decisions; Ariza struggles when needing to think on the basketball court.

The issue of Ariza’s defense is a contentious one.  His reputation precedes him, but his is a reckless, instinctual approach, garnering him gaudy steals totals but often leaving his teammates scrambling to rotate after blown coverage.  Still, this manner can be conducive to forcing tempo if that’s your cup of tea.

All in all, assuming expectations remain reasonable, I think the Hornets will be very pleased next year with Trevor Ariza.  While his struggles with the Rockets are well documented, playing next to Chris Paul is a situation tailor-made for a player of Trevor’s skillset and abilities – in returning to his former role with the Lakers (next to a superstar guard), I think Trevor will really thrive.

Ryan Schwan of Hornets247 on Darren Collison

After watching him for a season, I’m comfortable claiming that Darren Collison is the proud owner of the “fastest man in the NBA” title.   When he played, the Hornets pace increased by five possessions, as he exploded up court every chance he could.  Considering the heavy-footed players he was dragging with him up the court, it is a pretty amazing feat.

Collison started off his rookie season pretty rough, shooting poorly from deep, and struggling valiantly to figure out how to score over the faster, taller athletes he met in the paint.  In fact, for the first month, a pick and roll run by Collison typically had very little going for it.  That all changed, however, when Chris Paul went down.  Given long minutes, constant coaching by Paul, and confidence that never seemed to waver, Collison started deploying a stutter step and mid-range pull up jumper that made him deadly on the pick and roll by the end of February.  His long-range shot, which was amazing in college, began to settle in, and soon he was deadly from three, both as a spot-up shooter, and as a guy who could pull up off the dribble and knock it down.

As a passer, Collison is excellent in the open court, solid at the pick and roll, but tends to struggle in the pick and pop.  He’s great at driving into the paint and laying the ball off to a big man for a dunk or finding the roller, but when he has to find the open men on the perimeter, he still can get into trouble.  As a result, though he gets a lot of assists, he also gets a lot of turnovers.  He also has the tendency to be called for a carry once or twice a game, though that was fading by the end of last season.

Defensively is where Collison has his biggest problems.  He makes Allen Iverson look fat – and unlike mighty mouse Chris Paul, he’s also not physically strong at all.  That leaves him to be exploited terribly in post ups, and because of his lightness, a good screen or series of screens can take him out the picture on defense despite his recovery speed.

As a team leader, Collison was remarkable.  He was barking commands to veterans like Okafor and David West from the start of the season.  On more than one occasion I saw him get on teammates for not being where they were supposed to be.  He’s intelligent, knows how to get a team into its offense, and it shows.  He’s also cold-blooded.  He had two game-winning shots last season, and another three that put a nail in a run the other team was making to come back.  He doesn’t shy from that big shot – and he has a decent track record of making it.

In the end, I feel Collison will be an exciting-as-hell, explosive scorer in the mold of Tony Parker, and most nights will outscore his opponent.  At the same time, I’d also expect his opponent to regularly score more than is usual.

Sebastian Pruiti of Nets are Scorching on Courtney Lee

Courtney Lee is a guy I like and with Avery Johnson coming to New Jersey, I thought he was the perfect Avery Johnson guy.  He shoots the three ok (last years numbers are too low for his shooting ability in my honest opinion), he can penetrate and get out and run, but where he is most valuable is on the defensive end.  Courtney is both a very good one on one and team defender, and he works very hard on that end.  Lee doesn’t have a high ceiling  (and that is why I suspect that the Nets held onto Terrence Williams), and the player he is now is the player he will be years from now.  That’s not a bad thing, but there is very little room for him to grow.

Me on Troy Murphy

Offensively: The short answer is that Murph is a 6’11″ Steve Kerr.  He is an extremely efficient scorer, and serves as a safety valve for the offense.  I can see him being a very nice player with your personnel, offensively, as he is a low-usage guy.  The Pacers use him to float at the top of the key, and he took all but like 10 of his three’s from the arc (very few corner threes).  He has no post game to speak of, and he’s a solid passer, but not a great high post guy.

He does a good job of reading his defender, and is very good at reading the closeout, putting the ball on the floor and finishing at the rim.  He doesn’t get many offensive rebounds because of (a) where he plays and (b) his lack of footspeed, but could get more if he played closer to the basket.  However, I think you’d be an absolute fool to play him — offensively — in any other way than the way O’Brien used him.  Look at his eFG and TS numbers the last three years under Obie vs. his time in GS.  He plays completely within his skill set (almost to a fault), and I have never — never — seen a guy with better shot selection than Troy.  Very, very nice complementary shooter to have on your team.

Defensively: He is definitely a liability, and that is because he’s slow and physically weak.  He gets lots of defensive rebounds, but he doesn’t really control the glass the way most guys who pull down the volume of boards he gets.  He is not a block out guy, but has a good nose for the ball.  One-on-one he will never be better than, well, bad, but he can learn and will follow team defensive concepts.  In other words, if the opponent decides to target him, then he’ll get beaten, but he won’t blow defensive team schemes.  Overall, your team’s defensive performance will drag when he’s on the floor.

Lockerroom and Fit: He appears likable enough, but not really a presence.  Seems to get along with everybody well enough.  There were rumors last year that he wasn’t happy about Hansbrough eating into his playing time, but they were way external to the organization and I never believed them.  As far as fitting with your big guys, he should be a great fit with both Lopez and Favors offensively, and probably a poor fit defensively with Lopez, but pretty good with Favors – assuming I’ve got a reasonable handle on their respective games.

Here’s the most important part – you can’t look at the 14 & 11 and think he’s that traditional double-double guy.  He is very much someone who accentuates his positives, but doesn’t improve on his negatives.  He is not a physical player, at all.  He is who he is, but that can be a good thing.  Assuming Avery doesn’t choke on his defense, I suspect he’ll love the guy because he is perhaps the most reliably consistent player I’ve seen in three-plus decades of watching the NBA.

He will hit shots, he will get some boards, and he will suck on defense.

He will score, but he is a safety valve – not a primary or secondary option.  It sounds strange, but I think coaches like that because it’s something they don’t have to worry about.  They put him out there, and work on everything else.   This is why he can have some big games and not really make a difference.  He’s kind of a like an offensive lineman.  He can have a great  individual game, but if the rest of the line sucks, it won’t matter.  At the same time, if he’s great and the rest of the line is great, nobody will notice him.

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It remains to be seen whether Trevor Ariza will do right by NOLA. Or, to put it another way, whether Chris Paul will be one step closer to not leaving, and the era of the super-teams kept at bay. Certainly, the Hornets think so; in trading Darren Collison, they parted with the league’s ultimate contingency plan. But the Paul situation was getting thorny, the man wanted some help, and circumstances demanded sooner, not later.

Except while all eyes were on Paul, wondering if he would squander valuable prime on a team treading water, we forgot about Indiana’s Danny Granger.

It’s okay, most people do. And unlike Paul, Granger isn’t in contention for greatest ever at his position. Yet the new, harsh logic of the NBA goes something like this: the finest players are entitled to quality teams, or else, they will join forces and form encampments of their own.

Just because Danny Granger wasn’t asking for a trade, or seen as likely to make trouble before his 2014 free agency, it doesn’t mean he lives in a different league.

Chris Paul may have Trevor Ariza to toss alley-oops to, but Granger — who should see the playoffs a few times before he retires — is the star whose needs were really addressed. The irony, of course, is that we had all spent the last month guessing at Paul’s state of mind.

Granger, however shoddy the Pacers were, never raised a fuss or forced the issue. And yet he ended up the biggest winner in the trade.

Okay, it was the Pacers who won, since the team filled their most glaring need with a top-flight player. Teams are bigger than their stars; Collison could go on to surpass Granger; no one man is bigger than an entire roster, a whole that a point guard can bring real coherence to. Yet getting Darren Collison showed that the Pacers have been paying attention.

You can’t take your stars for granted, or leave them high and dry as other teams load up. Hate the Heat if you want; it’s because of them that Indiana made sure to make a move. In the end, it’s not about player demands, empowerment, expectations, or labor issues. It’s not about competitive imbalance. It’s about teams realizing that players want to win.

Yes, I know, making it too easy to win is a sin against the sport. The more important principle at play, though, is that talent is a terrible thing to waste. That goes for players who never become who they are; it should hold equally for franchises lucky enough to land Danny Granger late in the first round. He’s shown them loyalty by committing long-term. The least they can do is reward him as they would a Chris Paul potentially looking to bounce.

I have nothing to add.

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There’s really no excuse for an NBA coughing up the ball that many times. Still, it was the opener. For a squad that really needs to get off to a good start to avert a woe-is-me attitude that’s constantly lingering after three years without a playoff game and more games missed due to injuries than I care to count, begining the season this sloppily is very bad. But it is only one game. And the only thing less important than October basketball is preseason basketball.

So they get a pass. There are 81 more of these things, so there is no need to over-analyze a game where the team shot well enough to beat the reigning fourth seed in the Eastern Conference but valued the ball poorly enough to lose to the Fever.

Instead of trying to pretend we can learn much of anything from tonight’s performance, then, my plan was to just stick to straight observations for this recap. Of course, I’m completely incapable of not over-analyzing minutiae and trying to inject nuance into the mundane, so please humor me. But just so we can all easily recognize that the things I’m reading into certain plays and “trends” are coming entirely too early to have any real significance, I’ll break these thoughts down into two parts each:

1. Actual, legitimate, objective observations from the game
2. Related, possibly stupid conjectures that have, I’d say, a roughly 50/50 shot of being complete lies and/or total wastes of your time

Away we go.

Ummmm … Turnovers.

1. Keep It High, Hibbert — You’re Very Tall

Actual Observation - About one minute into the game, Roy Hibbert muscled aggressively to grab an offensive board. He then kept his arms fully extended with the ball way above his head. He then easily laid it in the basket for two points.

Related, Possibly Stupid Conjecture – This should happen threes times per game.

2. Granger Gets Buckets

Actual Observation – About two minutes into the game, Granger allayed all fears about his heel early being worrisome with a great dribble drive to the rim for a lay in.

Related, Possibly Stupid Conjecture – After the whole league had a full summer to acknowledge, watch film on and gameplan around his range, Danny is going to get like easy buckets like this several times each night when he catches a rotating defender closing out him too hard and then walks right by them all the way to the rim. And scoring will get even easier for him as this virtuous circle comes around again and people start to worry about his penetration and just buries jumper after jumper in people’s mugs. Danny has a chance to top 28 ppg this year. There are that many possession out there and this offense makes it difficult to stop him from getting points even if the defense’s plan it to try to take that away.

3. Was Troy Shaving Points?

Actual Observation - Multiple times throughout the night, Troy Murphy threw the ball away in such a baffling manner that it made me think he might be shaving points. About two minutes into the game, he got in trouble in the post and picked up his dribble and threw the ball directly to Marvin Williams. Later, Murphy pretty much gave Josh Smith a dribble hand-off in the half court. Later still, he hit a defender in the chest with Stocktonesque accuracy on an outlet pass after a defensive rebound.

Related, Possibly Stupid Conjecture – This behavior seems completely anomalous, and I obviously know he was not actually shaving points in any way whatsoever, so let’s just call it “one of those nights.” Regardless, I will from now on start referring to these as “I Know Troy Is From New Jersey But He Doesn’t Have any Mafia Bookie Connections, Does He?” turnovers.

In legitimate concern news, his horrible decision-making made me again think about David Berri pointing out Troy’s wild statistitical variance from year-to-year. And that really wasn’t something I wanted to think about ever again. So … Let’s all just pretend Murphy is a leadpipe lock to be just as productive as he was last year and never speak of tonight’s turnovers again. Ok?

4. Brandon Should Focus on Defense

Actual Observation – One one possession in the first quarter, Brandon Rush completely flustered Joe Johnson with his defense, knocking the ball away from Mr. Johnson. Joe quickly regathered the ball, but seemed very frustrated and soon launched a fallaway 20-footer with Rush pretty much inside his jersey. Joe didn’t even draw iron.

Related, Possibly Stupid Conjecture – I know everyone wants Brandon to be a complementary scorer to Granger. And, yes, anyone who saw the fourth quarter last night now knows that the offense certainly could use that. But if Rush is going to cement himself as a starter-level player in this league, this is where he earns his money. This is what he needs to be doing. He did it well throughout the game last night and looking at the larger sample size of last season, it’s safe to say that he is a guy who gets his hands on lots of balls. (I know how that sounds, but there’s no other way to write it. Seriously. Ok, maybe it could have been written a little better.) What Brandon should try to do is emulate the blueprint plans that Trevor Ariza laid out. (1) Be a plus defender, (2) float on offense, and (3) get your buckets in open space within the natural flow of the offense. Whether those points come from knockdown threes after a swing pass, catching and converting on passes while cutting through the paint, or quick drives from the perimeter when there is a clear lane to attack is not really important. What is important, however, is that he makes playing high-quality defense his primary mission and doesn’t burn a ton of calories trying to be cute with the ball on the perimeter while trying to score. In this offense, opportunities to score will come.

5. Small, Quick Bigs Will Be a Problem

Actual Observation – In the first quarter, Horford caught the ball at the high post with Hibbert guarding him. He dribbled hard right and went right by Hibbert with ease. He finished just as easily. He was too quick for Hibbert and Horford knew it. They both did. In a similar situation later in the first half, Horford, who was holding the ball in the high post and being guarded by Hibbert again, passed cross court to Josh Smith, who was hanging out near the baseline. Hibbert rotated over to proper helpside location on the pass. But when Smith quickly whipped the ball back to Horford, Al was able to stick a relatively unguarded six-footer.

Related, Possibly Stupid Conjecture – Sure, you will rarely see an interior give-and-go done this quickly or with this much precision. And, sure, most centers would get beat by this play. But most would get a better contest on the shot. Here, Horford got off the attempt as comfortably as he would in shootaround. Hibbert got beat worse than most big men would because of his poor lateral quickness. And Horford was able to exploit this all night. Smaller big men like Horford will continue to give the Pacers front court fits. We saw it very often last year, most memorably that night in November when Amaré came through Conseco like a tornado. We will see it consistently this year, too. Small, athletic centers will be able to score in bunches, then rinse and repeat.

6. Frenetic Play Is Good and Bad

Actual Observation – Right after Solomon Jones entered the game, he found himself playing helpside D when the ball-handler was in the corner and his man was near the opposite elbow. He stood there under the basket, wildly looking back and forth between his two responsibilities and seemed to be overwhelmed by all the excitement going on around him.

Related, Possibly Stupid Conjecture – I’ll chalk this up to Solo still being inexperienced and having nerves due to the fact that he is trying to carve out a role on a new team that he might actually be able to get burn for. But Solomon Jones looked lost and frenetic out there — and it wasn’t just on this one play. Again, let’s cut him a lot of slack because he unfairly tasked with checking Josh Smith when he entered the game, but his head was on a complete swivel. And not in a good way. He looked like it was one of those instances where the game was seeing a game that was moving at 130 mph. With more minutes, I’m sure the game will slow down for him, but the catch-22 of this situation is — as always — that it’s hard for a coach to give a guy enough minutes for the game to start slowing down for him as long as the guy plays like a confused bobblehead out there.

On a larger scale, this “game is too fast” thing is a problem with this entire roster — and it was last year. The team is full of frenetic players. Almost no one out there can just catch the ball, breathe easy and do something constructive. Everything feels rushed and urgent. And, again, not urgent in a good way. Few Pacer players are able to obey the proverbial “Be Quick, But Don’t Hurry” mantra. Granger can mostly, but even he gets a little over-eager at times.

The one guy who seems most able to provide a sense of calm to a possession is Mike Dunleavy Jr. Or, at least he could two seasons ago when he was healthy. He could hold the ball and move with it for effect and to allow the other guys to run the offense and find proper positioning. TJ struggles with that. He is always water-bugging around out there. He’s never still. Never calming. Obviously, one of the reasons that the Pacers offense can be so potent for stretches is that other teams can’t keep up with that frenetic pace. But, again, there is someone of a catch-22 there since the teams has a roster full of players who often can’t keep up either. Unless these guys learn to keep up, it’s hard to see a lot more consistency or any ability to properly harness the offense late in games when necessary — which means we’re probably in store for just as many blown leads, overcome deficits and wild swings as last year. Exhibit A, is the team’s scoring by quarter last night: 32, 33, 29, 15.

7. Bully Mentality

Actual Observation – In a momentary lack of discipline, Earl Watson bit on a jump-fake by Joe Smith, leaped into him and put a jump-shooter on the line.

Related, Possibly Stupid Conjecture – Whatever. Happens. What’s interesting is that he flew in to the big fella, knocking him down hard and looked down like “What? Get up” as he did it. Then, later, in the fourth quarter, Dahntay Jones “tangled feet” with Joe Johnson, sending the silent assassin to the floor. Dahntay seemed to have a similar attitude after that play.

Neither one of these plays were mean or nasty. Neither was cheap or unprofessional. But they both had an edgy feel to them that made the guys seem a little bit like bullies. This roster could use some bullies.

8. Dahntay Jones: Not For Offense

Actual Observation – Dahntay Jones did some work in the second quarter. To kick things off, he made a nice move to the right to get into the paint for a finger roll at the cup. Then, on the other end of the floor, he aggressively attacked the glass, leaping laterally to snatch one of those “a couple of guys on my team probably could have gotten it that rebound but it’s mine — MINE” rebounds. After he grabbed the board, he dribbled hard up the floor and, near the top of the key, stutter-step faked to shake a defender at the top of the key, freezing him just enough to go by him and leave the defender with no choice but to foul and send him to the line, where he knocks down two freebies. Fast forward another two possessions, and Dahntay drove by Marvin Williams from the wing (after a Pacer who was posting up clears out to give Jones the lane) and not only got to the rim for a lay-in, but also got to the line to complete the three-point play.

Related, Possibly Stupid Conjecture – This offensive flurry was impressive from a guy constantly characterized as having no offensive game. It made me think, maybe he can score? Maybe his production was just retarded in Denver because they so many other guys capable of filling it up? Maybe he can not only bring tough-nosed D to Indiana but also a be a legitimate third option who can create his own shot?

Then I remembered that I watched Denver play like 30 times last season.

Sure, he can do these things on offesne a little. Like, in very limited bursts. Because as was foreshadowed about one minute after his highly effective, early second quarter scoring spree, he also tries to do too much if he’s given the green light. He’s not a great penetrator. He has quickness and some ball-handling ability so can catch guys leaning the wrong way. Guys who close out on him lazily are prone to being caught flat-footed. But Denver fans will be the first to let you know that he should not be facing people up and trying to make a move. He’s a good finisher, a capable slasher and an occasional penetrator. But he’s not a creator. He is not the guy you want to be holding the ball and trying to create a shot when the defense is set. To be productive, he needs to be in open space. Offensively, he thrives in chaos. Havoc is his comfort zone. He regresses within structure. Order is his poison.

If this is the case and if my earlier suggestion is correct that Brandon Rush is more suited to be a good defender in this league than a scorer, then where do the Pacers get their points. The offense shoutd create opportunities, but it is still an uphill battle until Dunleavy gets back. I was hoping that Luther Head can bring some firepower. He looked semi-capable last night. And, hey, maybe Watson can keep shooting like that. We can also assume that TJ Ford won’t put up a Baron Davis-like 1-for-9 shooting every night.

No matter where it comes from, however, and no matter how impressive Dahntay looks here and there, they way the fourth quarter went last night should tell have at least taught us one thing: If the Pacers need to rely on Dahntay Jones to create offense, things could get ugly.

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