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TrueHoop Network 2009-10 NBA Season Preview

TrueHoop Network 09-10 NBA Season Preview

by Jared Wade on October 26, 2009 at 1:36 pm

I promised you Voltron and Voltron you shall have.

Here are all of the TrueHoop Network season previews for the individual teams. As an added bonus, Henry Abbott will have some more stuff up later in the day over at TrueHoop, Matt Moore has his piece on undersized guards at Hardwood Paroxysm and Haubs has his “10 NBA Questions for the 2010s” at The Painted Area.

And let’s hope the network’s 32-win prediction for the Pacers proves low.

TEAM BLOGGERS SAY WINS*

Bret Lagree | Hoopinion

“The Hawks have not built, nor do they appear to be building, a championship contender. … Joe Johnson is poised to be a free agent in the summer of 2010. Johnson is not a franchise player, yet he’s the Hawks’ best player.”

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Zach Lowe | CelticsHub

“It seems reasonable to say anything short of an 18th championship would be a disappointment.”

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Brett Hainline | Queen City Hoops

“Great defense + equally bad offense = average. With an improving division around them, that equation does not get them their first playoff berth. But at least they won’t suck.”

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Matt McHale | By the Horns

“During the offseason, the Bulls lost free agent Ben Gordon, whom many people considered the team’s best or second-best player (after Derrick Rose). Memo to Chicago fans: Don’t sweat it. Seriously. Gordon will be replaced by John Salmons, who not only gave the Bulls almost as many points per game (18.3 versus 20.7) but was slightly more efficient in how he scored them.”

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John Krolik | Cavs the Blog

“After last season’s playoff heartbreak, Danny Ferry has changed up the equation … However, Shaq could disrupt the delicate offensive and defensive chemistry the Cavaliers rode to 66 wins and the conference finals, despite the fact he will be the best player LeBron has ever played with if he continues to play like he did last season. The big question for the Cavs this seasons whether they overreacted to two clutch 3s by Rashard Lewis, or made the risk they needed to take to finally get LeBron a ring.”

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Rob Mahoney | The Two Man Game

“’Rebuilding’ teams seek financial flexibility and the acquisition of young, productive assets. Quality squads amass veteran talent, no matter the cost, in pursuit of a title. Defying all logic, the Mavs have simultaneously moved in both directions.”

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Jeremy Wagner | Roundball Mining Company

“The only players still on the roster who exceeded expectations in 2008-09 were Nene and Birdman. It is reasonable to expect every member of the Nuggets, other than thirty-something Chauncey Billups, to improve.”

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Dan Feldman | PistonPowered

“However the minutes shake out between Chris Wilcox, Kwame Brown and Ben Wallace, they won’t be as good as Rasheed Wallace. But Sheed wasn’t that great last year. He looked old and disinterested, so the drop here won’t be too steep.”

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Rasheed Malek |Warriors World

“Under the ownership of Chris Cohan, the Warriors have made the playoffs exactly one time and have gone through numerous coaches, players and executives. Going into this season, Larry Riley is the man in charge taking over for Chris Mullin.”

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Anup Shah and Brody Rollins | Rockets Buzz

“The speed revolution has overtaken some of basketball’s peers, most notably football … Is basketball headed in the same direction? [Aaron] Brooks provides an excellent case study. Beginning the year as the Rockets number one threat on offense with Ron Artest’s departure and injuries to Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, Brooks will have every opportunity to prove that size really doesn’t matter.”

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Jared Wade | Eight Points, Nine Seconds

“It’s hard to believe that anything short of the postseason will remove the dark cloud over Conseco. … Ultimately, it will come down to one thing: [Mike Jr.] Dunleavy’s knee.”

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Kevin Arnovitz | ClipperBlog

“[Blake] Griffin and [Eric] Gordon may not be saviors, but they’re something. Griffin’s skills and his tenacious work ethic (the guy runs up sand dunes in his free time) will be a boon to a team desperate for cultural overhaul. Gordon offers an enticing combination of spot-up shooting and forays into the paint. He finished third in true shooting percentage among starting off guards in his rookie campaign, something that can only help a team that ranked dead last in offensive efficiency last season.”

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Kurt Helin | Forum Blue and Gold

“God, is it good to be hated again.”

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Chip Crain | 3 Shades of Blue

“The 2009-10 version of the Grizzlies have put together a starting five where every player scored 30 points or more in a game last year. The oldest starter is only 28 years old (Zach Randolph) and the youngest won’t turn 22 until after the start of the season (O.J. Mayo). They are young, talented and hungry for success. So why do most people focus on the two players not on a rookie contract this season?”

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Matthew Bunch | Hot Hot Hoops

“38.6 minutes. 30.2 points. 49.1 percent shooting. Five rebounds. 7.5 assists. 2.2 steals. 1.3 blocks. That’s what [Dwyane] Wade averaged last season. You’re going to keep that guy out of the playoffs? Good luck.”

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Jeremy Schmidt | Bucksketball

“If the Bucks get anything out of their three small forwards, if they can keep [Andrew] Bogut and [Michael] Redd healthy and if they get a season worthy of the number ten selection out of Brandon Jennings at the point, the playoffs will be within reach. But that’s a lot of ifs.”

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Patrick Hodgdon | Howlin’ T-Wolf

“”Ever since his arrival, David Kahn has had seemingly one mission, other than to look like the smartest guy in the room at every turn, and that is to get as much cap space for next summer as he possibly can. … The obvious question lies in whether or not the Wolves will actually be able to lure one of the better free agent players to come to Minnesota.”

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Mark Ginocchio and Sebastian Priuti | Nets are Scorching

“Lingering doubts about Brooklyn could spoil any change the Nets have of landing a top free agent next summer.”

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Niall Doherty and Ryan Schwan | Hornets247

“Enter Emeka Okafor. He’s a near match to a healthy Chandler, is more durable, and doesn’t look like he’s having muscle spasms when making a post move.”

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Mike Kurylo | Knickerblogger

“2010 could be New York’s return to winning.”

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Royce Young | Daily Thunder

“The Thunder may not win more than half their games, but with over half the roster unable to get an alcoholic beverage still, steady improvement and progression is the name of the game.”

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Zach McCann | Orlando Magic Daily

“Take away either Hedo Turkoglu or Courtney Lee and the Magic aren’t getting to face the Lakers in the Finals. No way. But does that mean the Magic were wrong to let them go? Were the Magic foolish to allow a borderline All-Star and a possible future All-Star leave the team when both clearly wanted to stay in Orlando? Absolutely not. I believe the Magic are an entirely better team than they were four months ago.”

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Carey R. Smith | Philadunkia

“The travesty of a deal that Billy King gave to Samuel Dalembert remains easily one of the worst contracts in NBA history. Hopefully this season Dalembert, his inflated self-worth and his contract will be dealt for a couple of expiring contracts and some much-needed cap space.”

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Michael Schwartz | Valley of the Suns

“Two years ago the Suns were chic championship picks. Last year, the Suns were (accurately) thought to be a fringe playoff team. This year there are almost no expectations outside of their locker room. … There will be no mistaking what the Suns are this season: a lightning-speed team that will score points in bunches and likely give them up almost as quickly while struggling badly on the boards. But they will once again be the most exciting team in basketball.”

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Max Handelman | Beyond Bowie

“The Blazers effectively bumbled their way to a 54-win season despite a mediocre performance from Greg Oden, the loss of Martell Webster for the season, and at times starting three rookies. This team is only getting better, kids.”

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Zach Harper | Cowbell Kingdom

“Enter Tyreke Evans — a bulldozer-sized menace who will test the strength of every team’s defense at its entry point. He immediately creates matchup problems against teams with traditional point guards and will look to have a similar impact as fellow Memphis alum, Derrick Rose.”

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Timothy Varner | 48 Minutes of Hell

During the Celtics heyday, Red Auerbach boasted a winning percentage of .719. In the modern era, Pat Riley’s Showtime Lakers played to the tune of .733. Phil Jackson’s Jordan Bulls dominated the 90s with an otherworldly percentage of .771. Jackson’s three-peat Lakers? .735. In his 12 seasons with San Antonio, Gregg Popovich, whose cynical disdain for the regular season runs more than skin deep, has, nevertheless, posted a winning percentage of .707. That’s the company the Spurs keep. What should we expect this season? 58 wins and a run at the title. Same as every other year.”

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RaptorsRepublic

“How is a rookie(ish) head coach going to integrate nine new players into a new system with two new assistant coaches?”

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Spencer Ryan Hall | Salt City Hoops

“With young Wesley Matthews providing the good luck charm, Boozer in a contract year, Deron Williams with a chip on his shoulder, and a new longer-haired version of Andrei Kirilenko the Jazz have no reason to be anything other than beastly this season. And I mean that in a good way. Every prediction from the Jazz camp, however, comes with the ominous caveat ‘If we can stay healthy.’”

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Kyle Weidie | Truth About It

“Flip Saunders has never gotten a team ‘there.’ That worn out cliché always runs rampant, plaguing almost every coach who hasn’t won … until they win. Red Auerbach (647), Larry Brown (1,900), and Dick Motta (738) all took their lumps before winning a championship (games coached before title season). Don’t be surprised when what you think is impossible becomes a reality. … 2010 is the Chinese Year of the Tiger. Factor in Gilbert Arenas’ stomach tattoo and the fact that the Wizards play their home games in D.C.’s Chinatown, and all the cards are in place.”

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* As predicted by a consensus of all TrueHoop Network bloggers.

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8p9s/Pacers TrueHoop Network Season Preview

by Jared Wade on October 26, 2009 at 7:53 am

In the true spirit of Season Preview Season, the TrueHoop Network has come together like Voltron. With Henry Abbott and Kevin Arnovitz at the helm, all of the TrueHoop Network bloggers have joined forces for a 150ish-page NBA season preview book that will be available in full very soon. I’ll update this post and include the link to the piece in its entirely as soon as it becomes available, but in the meantime, be sure to peruse the other blogs in the network for other team outlooks. And stay tuned to TrueHoop for more updates from Henry and Kevin.

I haven’t read the preview in its entirety yet, but in addition to breakdowns of all 30 teams, I’m really looking forward to seeing Kevin’s chat with Blake Griffin, The Painted Area’s forward-looking “10 NBA Questions for the 2010s” and the thrilling conclusion of Henry’s ongoing series on Wayne Winston, the Indiana University professor who has has been the Dallas Mavericks’ stat guru for the past nine year and authored the book “Mathletics.”

As for me, I naturally did the Pacers preview. (In related news, I did a different, yet similarly toned Pacers preview for Heels on Hardwood.) And aside from informing you that this post consists of nine separate sections, each of which is explained under the heading, there’s not a lot else that needs saying.

So here it is: Your TrueHoop Network 2009-10 Pacers Season Preview. Enjoy.

Crowd Says / Blogger Says

The consensus win total prediction of the TrueHoop Network bloggers …
and the best hopes of the blogger who covers the team.

CrowdSaysBlogSays

Yes We Can!

The sun is out. The seas have parted. The basketball gods are shining upon us.

The Pacers franchise is in tumult. So much has changed since Ron Artest charged into the stands. The roster has been torn down. The playoffs have become merely a fond memory. The stands have emptied. The owners have hemorrhaged millions.

To stem the tide, the Pacers need a jolt of positivity. And on-court success is likely the only thing that will reinvigorate the fan base and re-brand the Pacers as something other than a punch line. This upcoming season may not exactly be playoffs or bust, but it’s hard to believe that anything short of the postseason will remove the dark cloud over Conseco.

Given all this, it would be great to pretend that there is a nuanced range of factors that will determine how successful the 2009-10 season will be. But that’s just not the case. Ultimately, it will come down to one thing: Dunleavy’s knee.

Currently, we know very little about how healthy Junior is. Although the self-assessments on Mike’s aptly titled blog “You, Me and My Knee” have been optimistic, guys like Gilbert Arenas have previously predicted ahead-of-schedule returns only to suffer setbacks. And Pacers fans know all too well how Jermaine O’Neal’s continual confidence worked out.

But we shouldn’t presume the worst. The original prognosis was for a Christmas return, so anything that accelerates Mike’s comeback is positive news. Until Dunleavy returns to the court, however, the Pacers roster will likely look as rudderless as it has since the last time he was healthy.

Danny Granger’s emergence as one of the most promising, fundamentally sound players in the league buoyed the franchise last season. By early December, Granger displayed a dynamic, multi-faceted game that few of even his largest supporters knew existed. Troy Murphy’s newfound proficiency was even less expected, and I’m not sure even his relatives foresaw gaudy stats like 14.3 ppg and 11.8 rpg on 45 percent shooting from 3-point range.

If Dunleavy can round out that trio, the Pacers should end their three-year playoff drought next April. Many will scoff at a surrounding cast of TJ Ford, Brandon Rush, Jeff Foster, Roy Hibbert, Tyler Hansbrough, Dahntay Jones and Earl Watson. Don’t listen to those skeptics. Larry Bird may not have discovered an array of future All-Stars, but he has assembled a cast of capable role players.

The development and integration of these secondary players will make for an interesting story this year regardless of anything else. With everything that has happened since the Malice in the Palace, however, interesting stories no longer resonate in Indianapolis. This team needs a playoff appearance. Realities on and off the court demand organizational progress.

Will it happen? If Mike Dunleavy plays 70 games, it should. And if he doesn’t? Well, at least the Pacers will have one more lottery pick to build around.

MDJ_Knee

No You Don’t

A rousing dissent from a rival blogger.

“Listen, Mr. Legend. Larry Bird is not walking through that door – no matter how many times you try to find the next Larry Bird.”

Ryan Schwan of Hornets247

All-a-Twitter

140-characters of insight into the soul of the team.

granger twitter raccoon

On the Record

Single best quote concerning the team during the last 12 months.

“The last three or four years have been disasters, and generally speaking, you can almost pinpoint it from the [brawl] game in Detroit. Not only has our fan base deteriorated but our financial condition has, too.”

Pacers Co-Owner Herb Simon (Indianapolis Star, 2/4/2009)

artestfight

The 2008-09 Almanac

Some key stats from last season.

If Jim O’Brien is coaching a team, there will be threes — and with good reason. Since O’Brien took over, the Pacers have shot 37.8% and 37.4% from behind the arc the past two seasons, good for eighth-best in the league both years. While those numbers are decent, what is more impressive is how his spread offensive system has been able to improve his key players’ long-range accuracy. Here are some numbers showing how four Pacer players have benefited from “The O’Brien Bump” after they started playing for the coach with the Paulie Walnuts hair.

The OBrien Bump

The Play

With the Pacers down one and 9.2 seconds to play…

Troy Murphy inbounds to Mike Dunleavy, who jab-steps, pump-fakes and then leans right before ripping the ball across his body to dribble left along the perimeter. Danny Granger moves towards Mike, takes a dribble hand-off and drives hard towards the top of the key. The defenders switch and the guy guarding Mike jumps in front of Granger. Danny catches him off-balance, crosses the ball back over to his left and steps back. He pulls up, elevates and releases the ball at the top of his jump shot. All net.

(Although if there’s only 0.9 seconds left, I suggest they just go with this play again.)

The People’s Choice

The fan favorite the crowd will be chanting for to see some action.

Tyler Hansbrough will be a rotation fixture, but fans will always want to see more of his relentless hustle and frenetic tenacity. And why not? Floor burns, black eyes and tip-ins will always trump blown rotations, missed assignments and sloppy close-outs in the popular vote.

Tyler Hansbrough UNC SI

If You’re Watching the Bottom Line, You’re Watching This

The single biggest financial issue hanging over the team.

Between the onerous contracts the front office acquired to unload Stephen Jackson (a burden otherwise known as the “Murphleavy Compromise”) and the go-away money spent to make Jamaal Tinsley disappear, the Pacers salary situation has become an organizational millstone. But there is now a light at the end of the tunnel. The Tinsley buyout and the deals of Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy and TJ Ford all come off the cap in the summer of 2011, at which point Indy’s management can once again start making personnel decisions based on talent rather than affordability.

light tunnel

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