8 Points, 9 Seconds » What Does a Draft Pick Get You?

What Does a Draft Pick Get You? – What Did a Draft Pick Get ‘Em?

Tim Donahue — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 13:31:47 +0000

To get a sense of what may be coming on Draft Night 2012, let’s take a look at what the other Draft Nights have looked like for the Pacers.

As always, here are the links to the rest of the discussion.

Thursday, June 24, 2004

The Situation – The Pacers had just won a franchise-record 61 games, giving them the best record in the NBA that season. Indiana needed to figure out how to get past the defending champion Detroit Pistons, but it was unlikely that it would come from their picks – which were the final pick of each round.

Who they got – Indiana took David Harrison, a 7-footer from Colorado, at 29, and Rashad Wright, a 6-2 guard from Georgia, at 59. Wright was cut in training camp, but Harrison lasted four relatively uneventful years in the Blue-and-Gold. He played almost 2,700 minutes in 189 games – even starting 33 of them – while posting an AdjPR100 of 2.86 and compiled 3.1 Win Shares.

Probably best remembered for either his brief suspension for testing positive for drugs, or for his temper, Harrison fell out of the NBA after his rookie deal ended in 2008. Still, his career was fairly representative for a #29 pick, finishing 15th in the study for AdjPR100 and 17th in total Win Shares.

Who they wish they got – One pick after the Pacers took Harrison, Cleveland selected Anderson Varejao. Varejao’s AdjPR100 is 9.55 (degraded by a reliability factor under 70%) and his almost 35 Win Shares are 10th most from the 2004 class. Though somewhat injury prone, Sideshow Andy has proven to be one of the better defensive big men in the league.

Possibly Apocryphal Story that’s Fun to Tell, Nonetheless – The big rumor on draft night was that the Pacers were going to trade Al Harrington to the Bulls, who held both the third and seventh picks. The common gossip was that Larry Bird wanted to move up to grab Luke Jackson from Oregon. Nothing came to fruition, and Chicago drafted Ben Gordon at #3 and Luol Deng at #7.

The story that came out later was that Bird was not, in fact, interested in Jackson, who failed miserably in the NBA. Apparently, his target was Ben Gordon, and the deal fell apart on Bird’s insistence on the #3 instead of #7. It would make for an interesting exercise to go through the chain of events that would follow, had Indiana agreed to use Al Harrington to get the #7 (and Luol Deng or Andre Iguodala), and not to get Stephen Jackson.

Tuesday, June 28, 2005

The Situation – Post-brawl, and post-Reggie, the Pacers were trying to right the ship. The one upside of the debacle that was the 2005 season was the Pacers had an unusually high draft pick (#17) for a team considered to be a contender. They also had the #46 pick.

Who they got – Though projected as a Top 10 pick, teams continued to leave Danny Granger on the board. Some of it was due to fears about Granger’s knees, and some of it was just GMs being too smart for their own good. In any case, when it was time for the 17th pick , Danny Granger became a Pacer.

At 46, the Pacers took Erazem Lorbek. Lorbek has spent his career in Europe, having some pretty good success there, but nothing in the NBA to this point.

Who they wish they got – Arguments perhaps could be made for David Lee or Monta Ellis, but the Pacers have to be pretty happy with their guy. Granger has been and All Star and won Most Improved Player. His 16.23 AdjPR100 and 46.7 Win Shares are both 4th best in the class of 2005. His numbers also put him among the most successful players ever drafted at #17, ranking with Josh Smith, Shawn Kemp, and former Pacer Jermaine O’Neal.

Lorbek has had success overseas, and he is reportedly going to come over to San Antonio next season (where he was traded as part of the package to get George Hill). However, Pacers probably would take a do over to get Marcin Gortat (57) or perhaps even Ryan Gomes (50). Andray Blatche (49)…ehhhh…not so much.

Possibly Apocryphal Story that’s Fun to Tell, Nonetheless – The popular folklore is that Larry Bird was on the phone negotiating a trade for the 17th pick, when they got on the clock. Supposedly, he interrupted the guy on the other end of the phone, saying, “I gotta go draft Danny Granger.” And then he hung up.

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

The Situation – A year removed from the brawl, the Pacer foundation continued to crumble with things more insidious. A December trade demand by Ron Artest devolved into a 6-week slogfest and a rental of Peja Stojakovic. It derailed the season, and Indiana limped to a .500 record and a first-round exit playing really ugly basketball. They entered the night with the 17th and 45th picks.

Who they got – Many predicted that the Pacers would go for a point guard, with rumors that they were hoping that UConn’s Marcus Williams would fall to them at 17. Imagine everyone’s surprise when Indiana reached for Shawne Williams, a promising, but immature tweener from Memphis.

Williams’ career showed flashes, but never went anywhere with the Pacers. He rates as a One Star player on this system, and has only produced 4.2 Win Shares. Things got somewhat hairy off the court, leading to Williams being traded a couple times, then falling out of the league. He got a second chance last season, and was a fairly decent role player – but still a disappointment.

At 45, the Pacers took Alexander Johnson, then trade him and two future second round draft picks for James “Flight” White from Cincinnati. White was given considerable hype, but his high water mark was committing a whole lot of a fouls in the summer league, before being cut in training camp.

Who they wish they got – Welllllll…Paul Millsap went 47th, so you could have had him instead of either (or both) Williams or White. Kyle Lowry went 24th.

But mostly…Rajon Rondo was the miss. Rondo went 21st to Boston, and went on to become one of the best point guards in the league. There were questions about his shooting ability. OK, not so much question about his shooting ability as questions about how well he could succeed with no shooting ability. Pretty well, as it turns out.

Possibly Apocryphal Story that’s Fun to Tell, Nonetheless – There’s nothing fun in talking about this draft. The best that could be said is that Marcus Williams really wouldn’t have been a better pick than Shawne. The very definition of “damning with faint praise.”

Thursday, June 28, 2007

The Situation – At this point in time, the wheels had completely come off the cart. The Pacers had traded both of their picks in the 2007 Draft the previous summer. Their first rounder went to Atlanta for Al Harrington, who was later used to help get Stephen Jackson out of town. Their second rounder went to Portland in the James White deal, who didn’t make it out of training camp as a rookie. Carlisle had been fired, and the Pacers were pretty widely hated – not disliked, hated – in the community for a series of off court transgressions that were hugely embarrassing.

Who they got - Early in the second round, we found out that the Pacers had traded a 2009 Second Round pick to get the #39 pick from Miami. That pick was used on Stanko Barac, a very raw, very young 7-footer from Bosnia. Barac has spent the time since in Europe, and it is unclear when or if he’ll ever see the NBA.

The 2009 Pick became #43, and was used on Marcus Thornton.

Who they wish they got – Pretty much anyone, but the obvious choice is Marc Gasol, who went 47th. He ranks in the top 4 in the class in AdjPR100 and Win Shares, and statistically has been neck-and-neck with Joakim Noah (9th).

Atlanta used Indiana’s #11 pick to select Acie Law, who had the same cool name as Acie Earl, but lacked the fade, or any other redeeming quality. Thad Young (#12) is probably the guy I would have wanted at that spot.

Possibly Apocryphal Story that’s Fun to Tell, Nonetheless – Bird said before the draft, that he was going to make big move, and get “one of the best shooters in the game.” Rumors had the Pacers and the Rockets planning a swap that would send Ike Diogu to Houston for the #26, and the Pacers were reportedly targeting Morris Almond – a shooting guard from Rice. It never materialized, as Utah took Almond one pick earlier, and Houston took Aaron Brooks.

With no picks and no cap space, Indiana filled out the roster with minimum level players. Stephen Graham, Andre Owens, Kareem Rush, and Travis Diener were all signed to very low contracts, and all of them actually started at different times during the season. Dark days for the Pacers, indeed.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

The Situation – The Pacers had missed the playoffs for the second time in a row. The prior summer had been filled with rumors of JO to the Lakers, and the Pacers were clearly uncompetitive. Indiana had the 11th pick, and in the days before the draft, they agreed to a deal to send Jermaine O’Neal and the Pacers Second Round pick (#41) to Toronto for T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, Maceo Baston, and #17.

Who they got – One of the interesting things that happened the day of the draft was Jerryd Bayless’ drop. Predicted in a lot of early mock drafts to go at #4, he had held there until just a day or two before the draft. Then, a combination of Russell Westbrook’s rising stock and a string of teams where Bayless wasn’t the best fit led to him falling all the way down to #11. The Pacers took him, but as part of an agreed upon trade with Portland (and the new Pacer GM – Kevin Pritchard), dealt him to the Pacific Northwest along with Ike Diogu. In return, the Pacers got the #13 pick (Brandon Rush), Jarrett Jack, and Josh McRoberts.

From that trade, the Pacers probably got the most value out of the single year of Jarrett Jack. Josh McRoberts – who was really just filler – ended up sticking, even earning a part-time starting slot, but his prominence with the Pacers said far more about how bad the Indy’s roster/bigs were than to any qualities of McBob.

Brandon Rush spent three uninspiring years with the Pacers, playing over 6,000 minutes before being dealt to Golden State for Lou Amundson. His career number are above average for a #13 (AdjPR100 9.08, 9.5 WS), but not all that hot for a Class of 2008 that was stunningly deep (would currently rate at 6th best in the study). Last season, the Wall Street Journal named him the “NBA’s most mediocre player,” and that seems to fit pretty well. With Brandon, it was easy to see why he should be a good player, but not so easy to understand why he wasn’t.

With the #17 pick, the Pacers appear to have hit a home run with Roy Hibbert from Georgetown. This past season, Hibbert became only the fourth #17 to become an All Star. (The other three were Shawn Kemp, former Pacer Jermaine O’Neal, and current Pacer Danny Granger.) Big Roy has produced 16 Win Shares and had a solid 3-Star career. Last season, he put up 4-star numbers, with an AdjPR100 of over 19 and 6+ WS.

Who they wish they got – Though there may be some arguments, once again, I think Roy Hibbert was the right guy to take at #17. On an AdjPR100 basis, he’s top five in his class at the moment, and he’s 10th in Win Shares.

However, most of the guys taken after 17th that you might argue for over Roy almost certainly would get the nod over Brandon Rush. Current Pacer George Hill (26) is among them. Besides that, Nic Batum (25), Luc Mbah a Moute (37), and Serge Ibaka (24) are all players I would clearly choose over Brandon. Others could argue for JaVale McGee (18), DeAndre Jordan (35), Mario Chalmers (34), Courtney Lee (22), Ryan Anderson (21), or Goran Dragic (45).

As I said earlier, this was just a stunningly deep class.

Possibly Apocryphal Story that’s Fun to Tell, Nonetheless – The summer of 2008 kicked off the “Three Year Plan” for the Pacers to rebuild. Stunningly, that coincided with all the bad contracts coming off the books, so it could have also been accurately called the “We Don’t Have Any Freakin’ Choice” plan. Larry Bird and David Morway didn’t bat 1.000 on their first draft day, but decisions made on this day were both crucial and positive factors in turning the franchise around.

One alternate rumor in the days running up to the draft was JO to Cleveland for Anderson Varejao and the #19 pick (along with Wally Szczerbiak’s expiring contract). That would have been an intriguing move, as it’s possible the Pacers could have still landed Hibbert at #19. As with all things, one altered step spins the future in a different direction, and you are never sure whether that direction would be better or worse.

To be continued – With apologies, I will get 2009, 2010 and 2011 up as quickly as possible – hopefully before tonight’s draft – but real life intrudes. If worse comes to worst, we’ll be able to talk about what happened on Thursday, June 28, 2012, as well.

What Does a Draft Pick Get You? – #26

Tim Donahue — Mon, 25 Jun 2012 11:53:56 +0000

As part of prepping for the 2012 NBA Draft, we’re going to try to leverage the work we’ve done in the “What Does a Draft Pick Get You?” series. For more detail, please see the seven parts of the original series:

Thanks to their great regular season (fifth best in the NBA), the Pacers won’t be drafting until 26th. This is the latest first round pick Indiana has earned since 2004, when they picked 29th.

Pick #26

Number of Draftees: 35
Top Rated Player: Vlade Divac (#26, 1989) – 16.68
Lowest Rated Player: Geert Hammink (#26, 1993) – 0.03
Never/Has Not Played: 3
For a complete list of all 35 players, click here.

Star Distribution:

If you’ve read the previous posts I’ve made in this series … or any other study done on the value of draft picks … or have followed the NBA in more than a passing sense … then it should come as no surprise to you the #26 pick doesn’t have a very high historical hit rate. In fact, only 7 of the 35 players in this sample ever did much more than carry the bags on road trips. So … unlikely Indiana will find the guy that will launch the Pacers past Miami or Oklahoma City, leading to a half-decade era of dominance. But … ya know … we can pretend.

Or perhaps, “hope” might be a better word. The truth is that there is almost certain to be at least one solid or better player available when the Pacers go on the clock. History say this is true.

The chart above shows that 34 of the 35 draft classes included in this study produced players who had (or are having) 2-Star or better careers. This doesn’t even take into account players taken after the 60th pick (all drafts prior to 1989 had more than two rounds) or undrafted players.

In the 2012 season, players taken at or after the 26th pick accounted for over 127,000 minutes, while undrafted players added over 40,000 more minutes. That’s about one third of the players (151) and accounts for roughly 35% of the minutes played in the NBA last season.

While the vast majority of these players were fringe players, this group is not without some impressive names. Among the draftees were Monta Ellis, Paul Millsap, Tony Parker, Marc Gasol, Marcin Gortat, and the Pacers’ own George Hill and Leandro Barbosa. The most visible names among the 79 undrafted players are Jose Calderon, Wesley Mathews, Udonis Haslem, Gary Neal, and Jeremy Lin.

So, there will be someone there. The unbelievably hard part is knowing who that guy is.

More Success Recently

One positive is that late draft picks have been more successful in recent years. The chart above shows the last dozen classes have started to produce more players, with the hit rate for the 2000 through 2011 classes being about 42% higher than the ’77 through ’99 classes. Of course, that means going from 7.9% 2-Star or better to 11.2%, but that’s still sizable.

The #26 pick has been a significant contributor to this improvement. From 1997 through 1999, the #26 pick was very unsuccessful. It rated 40th out of the 60 draft picks in terms of average AdjPR100 at 2.48. It wasn’t much better in terms of Average Win Shares produced, either, ranking 31st at 8.7. The latter number skewed greatly by the long, successful career of Vlade Divac (1989), who was the top rated 26th pick under both metrics.

But things have changed quite a bit since the turn of the century.

The blue bars above represent the first 23 classes in this study, and the #26 was an almost complete disaster. Only two of the 23 three players – Vlade Divac and Jerome Williams – rated out as 2-Star or higher. Of the 214+ Win Shares produced by this group of players, Divac produced 96 of them.

The red represent the last 12 classes – 2000 through 2011. From these classes come Samuel Dalembert, Taj Gibson, Kevin Martin, George Hill, John Salmons, and Aaron Brooks. These six players combine for an AdjPR100 of over 12, and the group as a whole was over 10. While the 23 players from the first 23 classes produced 214 Win Shares, these 12 classes produced 199, with over 165 coming from the six listed above. These numbers placed the #26 slot as the 13th most productive pick slot during the 12-year period according to average AdjPR100, and these 12 players produced the 9th highest average in Win Shares.

Of course, one major reason for later draft picks having more success is simply that there is more opportunity for them. Expansion took the league from 22 teams in 1977 to 29 teams in 1996, and finally, 30 by 2005. The first dozen #26 picks in this study were actually Second Round picks. More teams means more available court time.

However, there is another factor worth looking at with these players. Of the six players listed above, only Samuel Dalembert played fewer than three years of college ball, and he played two at Seton Hall. Hill, Salmons, and Brooks all entered the draft after their senior year. Gibson only played three years of college ball at USC, but entered as a 24-year old rookie. Kevin Martin was only 21 as a rookie, but played three years at Western Carolina. This phenomenon is somewhat representative of one school of thought surrounding late first round draft picks: take older, more complete players who are more likely to make an immediate impact but may not have a “high ceiling.”

As a philosophy, it makes a decent amount of sense. All first round draft picks have guaranteed money for two years, and that fact can take a little bloom off the rose for later first round slots. From a financial perspective, the first few picks of the second round can be more attractive than the last few of the first round. This motivation also could lead a risk averse General Manager to be even more conservative in his selection process.

Of course, age and experience doesn’t always equate to “NBA Ready” or maturity. Each player is different. Pacer fans can point to Paul George, the youngest 1st round pick the Pacers have taken since Jonathan Bender, but was arguably more “mature and NBA ready” than any other recent Pacer pick, other than perhaps Danny Granger. Still, this type of information could argue that players like Draymond Green, Festus Ezeli, or Jeff Taylor would be better choices than a Marquis Teague or Quincy Miller.

Ballparking Trade Value

Of course, it’s possible the Pacers may not be wanting to use their #26 pick. On local radio this past Friday, Mike Wells said he expected the Pacers to either make a big move up in the draft – perhaps for a Top 10 pick – or to trade out of the first round. Some thoughts on that.

First, the #26 probably only has marginal value on the market, and it’s mostly psychological value. A late draft pick represents the opportunity to pick up a player on a pretty cheap contract (less than $900,000 to start), and to be active on draft day. However, it’s probably not coveted enough to land a player of much merit, and seems more likely to be sold or dealt for future/other picks.

It can be used as filler to try to move up in the draft. It’s not an unattractive thing for teams to be able to stay in a draft by trading back, particularly if they aren’t in love with anyone scheduled to go around the pick. For the Pacers, the most commonly discussed premium they could add has been Darren Collison. Collison appears to be the odd man out after losing his starting job to George Hill late last season.

So, what are they giving up in Collison?

Over his three seasons in the NBA, Darren Collison has been very productive – especially for a #21 pick. His AdjPR100 of 13.14 is 4th out of the 35 #21 picks, and would be an above average career even for a Top 10 pick. Further, he’s produced 11.0 Win Shares in his three season. That’s 10th most from his 2008 class, and would be tracking towards the 4-year average for the #7 pick according to a study done by Basketball-Reference back in 2010.

In other words, Collison has had a pretty good NBA career thus far. The numbers get augmented by the fact that he was part of one of the most effective lineups in the league last year, and played a big factor in the Pacers’ first round victory over the Magic. So, to give him up is to give up quite a bit. In fact, he’s been as good or better than many players taken 10th over the last 35 years.

Is it a prohibitive price? Maybe. Maybe not.

DC has his flaws, too. He’s undersized and doesn’t control the offense the way you’d like to see from a point guard. Defensively, he had been awful his first year in Indy, but a revelation in the first round against Orlando. Disconcertingly, this was attributed to his shortened minutes, with Danny Granger and Frank Vogel both attributing his better defense to his limited minutes. Not exactly what you hope to hear for a potential starter.

And beyond that, there are the always important questions of fit and need.

Perhaps the most distorting factor when trying to gauge trade value at draft time is merely context. Darren Collison has reached the point in his career where most people think of him in terms of what he can’t be. A draft pick, however, is generally only thought of in terms of what could be. While that seems somewhat minor, the negative or positive starting point frames the entire discussion.

Historical and statistical analysis isn’t meant to erase those thoughts, so much as it’s meant to provide a counterbalance. Building an NBA team is far more art than it is science, and in cases like these, the decision really has to come down to what the decision maker – Larry Bird – believes. However, belief needs to be tempered with evidence.

And that’s basically the purpose of looking at it from multiple directions. This analysis is one direction that should be folded in, if for no other reason than to remind us of what’s at stake vs. what can be.

What Does a Draft Pick Get You? Part VII: Ranking the Draft Classes – The Top Ten

Tim Donahue — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 16:12:56 +0000

To (belatedly) complete our series on Draft History, Part VII will look at the Top Ten rated draft classes from my study as completed in 2010. For more detail, please see the first six parts of this series:

In Parts V, VI and VII, I’m going to be ranking the 33 draft classes, from “worst” to first, using a the following point system based on the 5-Star ratings and the Peak Award levels:

10. Class of 1987: 23 Points (2 Star Points, 21 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: David Robinson – San Antonio Spurs – 25.60
Highest-Rated Player: David Robinson (#1 San Antonio Spurs) – 25.60
Rookie of the Year: Mark Jackson (#18 New York Knicks)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 Most Valuable Player (David Robinson), 7 All NBA First Team (2 Players), 8 All NBA Second Team (3 Players), 10 All NBA Third Team (4 Players), 1 Defensive Player of the Year (David Robinson), 12 All Defense First Team (3 Players), 12 All Defense Second Team (4 Players), 28 All Star Appearances (7 Players)
Hall of Fame: David Robinson, Scottie Pippen, Reggie Miller

The Indiana Pacers got a lot of mileage out of this class. Mark Jackson, Derrick McKey, and of course, Reggie Miller were all taken in the 1987 draft. Jackson and McKey were both key cogs in a Pacer team that contended from 1994 through 2000. Reggie Miller became the face of the NBA Pacers.

David Robinson was the #1 pick in the draft – despite a two-year commitment to the Navy - and proved well worth the wait. This class produced a mayor (Kevin Johnson), Charles Barkley’s sidekick (Kenny Smith), and arguably the finest defensive player in this entire study (Scottie Pippen). For me, however, this was the “Year of the Reggies.”

There were three guys named Reggie slated to be picked in the first round. It was a further coincidence that all three were relatively skinny 6-7 swingmen. We’ve touched on one – “our” Reggie. Reggie Williams from Georgetown, drafted fourth, was expected to be the best of the three, but his career can only be described as a disappointment. Reggie Lewis had blossomed into an All Star for the Celtics, when his life was cut short by hypertrophic cardiomyopathy at the age of 27.

9. Class of 1977: 25 Points (5 Star Points, 20 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Kent Benson – Milwaukee Bucks – 8.92
Highest-Rated Player: Jack Sikma (#8 Seattle SuperSonics) – 20.07
Rookie of the Year: Walter Davis (#5 Phoenix Suns)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 3 All NBA First Team (2 Players), 6 All NBA Second Team (4 Players), 1 All NBA Third Team (1 Player), 2 All Defense First Team (1 Player), 7 All Defense Second Team (4 Players), 27 All Star Appearances (7 Players)
Hall of Fame: None (because Bernard King keeps getting screwed)

This class doesn’t have a lot of stars, but it does have a lot of really good players. Starting with the highest rated player from 1977 – Jack Sikma – there are so many guys that bring a smile to my face when I think of them. Walter Davis was so smooth for so many years in Phoenix, while Cedric “Cornbread” Maxwell was one of my all time favorite players. Marques Johnson, Norm Nixon, Otis Birdsong, and James Edwards all shaped good NBA careers.

However, the best player from the 1977 Draft had to be Bernard King. His career was marred by the abuse of alcohol early, and a devastating knee injury at his peak, but he was some kind of scorer. His 22.5 points per game stands as 27th in the history of the NBA, and his 1984-85 season was truly special. Before blowing out his knee, he scored over 20 in 50 of his 55 games, over 40 13 times, and over 50 three times, including a 60-point Christmas day explosion.

B is the only member of this class with even a remote shot at making the Hall, but his bid is hampered by the fact he only played 874 games. Still, King was special, and there was a lot to like about this class.

8. Class of 1992: 26 Points (7 Star Points, 19 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Shaquille O’Neal – Orlando Magic – 23.08
Highest-Rated Player: Shaquille O’Neal (#1 Orlando Magic) – 23.08
Rookie of the Year: Shaquille O’Neal (#1 Orlando Magic)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 MVP (1 Player), 10 All NBA First Team (3 Players), 3 All NBA Second Team (2 Players), 4 All NBA Third Team (1 Player), 3 All Defense First Team (2 Players), 10 All Defense Second Team (4 Players), 22 All Star Appearances (5 Players)
Hall of Fame: None (yet … Shaq)

(Superlative) (superlative) Shaquille O’Neal. (Superlative) Shaq (superlative) (superlative). (Superlative) (superlative) the Big Aristotle (superlative) (superlative), and, Kazaam notwithstanding, (really big superlative).

The actual draft order went (1) Shaq, (2) Alonzo Mourning, (3) Christian Laettner. That is more or less how the class went. Mourning was an amazing defensive player whose career numbers were badly hurt by his mid-career kidney transplant. After that, you end up with arguably Latrell Sprewell as the next best player. After that, there’s the role player supreme – Robert Horry, and a smattering of solid contributors.

But, mostly…Shaq.

7. Class of 1999: 32 Points (17 Star Points, 15 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Elton Brand – Chicago Bulls – 20.22
Highest-Rated Player: Shawn Marion (#9 Phoenix Suns) – 21.56
Rookie of the Year: Elton Brand (#1 Chicago Bulls) and Steve Francis (#2 Vancouver Grizzlies)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 All NBA Second Team (1 Player), 5 All NBA Third Team (4 Players), 3 All Defense First Team (2 Players), 4 All Defense Second Team (2 Players), 18 All Star Appearances (9 Players)
Hall of Fame: None (though Ginobili likely)

No real big stars in this class, but lots and lots of good players. With six 4- and 5-Star players (Marion, Brand, Andre Miller, Lamar Odom, Jason Terry, and Steve Francis), this class is only eclipsed by the 1996 class (with 7) and matched by the 1984 class. Add another six 3-Star ratings (including guys like Manu Ginobili, Andrei Kirilenko, and Ron Artest), and it has more 3-, 4-, and 5-Star players than any class except for the ’96 class (13) and the 2001 class.

However, this class is decidedly short on major awards. No MVPs, and Elton Brands 2nd Team All NBA selection is the high water mark for individual accolades. However, in terms of generating players who had long, productive careers, the class of ’99 was very, very good.

The Pacers had some mixed success with this class. Ron Artest had the best – and worst – years of his career here, but he was picked up in a later trade. Of the two players, they missed on one – the unqualified bust of Jonathan Bender at #5 – and hit on the other – Jeff Foster at #21.

6. Class of 1998: 34 Points (18 Star Points, 16 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Michael Olowokandi – Los Angeles Clippers – 8.14
Highest-Rated Player: Dirk Nowitzki (#9 Milwaukee Bucks for Dallas Mavericks) – 25.73
Rookie of the Year: Vince Carter (#5 Golden State Warriors for Toronto Raptors)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 MVP (1 Player), 4 All NBA First Team (1 Player), 6 All NBA Second Team (3 Players), 6 All NBA Third Team (3 Players), 1 All Defense First Team (1 Players), 28 All Star Appearances (5 Players)
Hall of Fame: None (yet … Dirk, Pierce)

Dirk Nowitzki. Paul Pierce. The non-depressing part of Vince Carter’s career. That is pretty much the glory for the class of ’98. After that are good pros that were never quite as good as you hoped, like Antawn Jamison, Mike Bibby and Rashard Lewis

Mostly, what strikes me about this class is the number of guys who were just good enough to get paid. Raef LaFrentz leaps to mind, but the poster child has to be Jerome James. Others include Larry Hughes, Ricky Davis, Rasho Nesterovic, Rafer Alston, Micheal Doleac, Pat Garrity, and Nazr Mohammed.

Other fun facts include Michael Olowokandi going first to the Clippers (gigglegigglesnort), and Milwaukee trading Dirk Nowitzki and Pat Garrity to Dallas for Robert “Tractor” Traylor. Nowitzki was a little bit of an unknown at the time, so the trade and him going 9th is understandable. However, Paul Pierce lasting to #10 was just a case of GMs being too smart for their own good.

5. Class of 2001: 34 Points (21 Star Points, 13 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Kwame Brown – Washington Wizards – 6.90
Highest-Rated Player: Pau Gasol (#3 Atlanta Hawks for Memphis Grizzlies) – 21.73
Rookie of the Year: Pau Gasol (#3 Atlanta Hawks for Memphis Grizzlies)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 All NBA Second Team (1 Player), 6 All NBA Third Team (4 Players), 1 All Defense First Team (1 Player), 3 All Defense Second Team (3 Players), 16 All Star Appearances (7 Players)
Hall of Fame: None (though Pau Gasol likely and Tony Parker perhaps)

Another class with a lot of good-to-very-good players. As noted above, 2001 produced more 3-, 4-, and 5-Star players than any other in the study – 13. No big individual honors (though Tyson Chandler did earn DPOY in 2012), but lots of production. Pau Gasol’s numbers are head and shoulders above everyone else’s in the class, and that’s probably a fair representation.

The #1 pick – Kwame Brown – was the second worst #1 pick in the study. Since the “worst” was Greg Oden, owing his failure almost entirely to injuries, I think it could be pretty safely argued that Kwame was actually the real “worst” #1 pick. I’d put him pretty comfortably below Pervis Ellison, Michael Olowokandi, and Kent Benson.

However, ’01 more than made up for the swing-and-miss at #1 with some really quality late picks. Tony Parker (28), Zach Randolph (19), Gilbert Arenas (30), Gerald Wallace (25), and Mehmet Okur (37) were all great values for where they were taken…some just plain great values.

4. Class of 1985: 40 Points (12 Star Points, 28 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Patrick Ewing – New York Knicks – 21.52
Highest-Rated Player: Karl Malone (#13 Utah Jazz) – 27.83
Rookie of the Year: Patrick Ewing (#1 New York Knicks)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 MVP, 13 All NBA First Team (3 Players), 11 All NBA Second Team (4 Players), 5 All NBA Third Team (4 Players), 8 All Defense First Team (3 Players), 8 All Defense Second Team (6 Players), 39 All Star Appearances (9 Players)
Hall of Fame: Karl Malone, Patrick Ewing, Joe Dumars, Chris Mullin

Pacer fans remember this draft most for being the one where they didn’t get Patrick Ewing, but this was quite a class. Four Hall of Famers, including Ewing, but led by Karl Malone. Malone’s 27.83 AdjPR100 rates as the second highest number in this study (#1 coming up). There’s even some comfort for Pacer fans, as Detlef Schrempf excelled in the Blue-and-Gold, while Chris Mullin was a meaningful contributor to arguably the best teams in franchise history.

This was the first year of the lottery, with the order of the 7 non-playoff teams being determined by a blind draw – each team with one chance (and envelope in this case) in seven. I can pretty much remember knowing who the seven lottery picks would be, and to this day, I still have trouble recognizing any pick after # 7 as a lottery pick.

Besides the Hall of Famers listed above, this class had some really quality contributors. Charles Oakley bullied the Pacers during the height of the Hicks vs. Knicks rivalry. Terry Porter, Xavier McDaniel, A.C. Green, and Hot Rod Williams all had long productive careers.

Well, at least Wayman Tisdale had a really nice smile.

3. Class of 2003: 43 Points (22 Star Points, 21 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: LeBron James – Cleveland Cavaliers – 29.57
Highest-Rated Player: LeBron James (#1 Cleveland Cavaliers) – 29.57
Rookie of the Year: LeBron James (#1 Cleveland Cavaliers)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 MVP, 6 All NBA First Team (2 Players), 6 All NBA Second Team (4 Players), 4 All NBA Third Team (2 Players), 2 All Defense First Team (1 Player), 4 All Defense Second Team (2 Players), 23 All Star Appearances (7 Players)
Hall of Fame: None (yet … LeBron, Wade and maybe Carmelo and Bosh)

If this class were a radio single, it would be #3 with a bullet. It is certain to pass up the #2-ranked class – 1984 – in this study, and the only question remains is whether it can catch #1.

The top 5 picks in this draft were arguably the best top 5 in this study. They rank second only to 1984 in average AdjPR100, despite the presence of the unmitigated bust of Darko Milicic. (To be fair, 1984′s # 2 pick was also problematic…more later.) LeBron James is the highest rated player in this study – by a significant margin. Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade are all in the top 5% in the league and have had wildly successful careers.

And if Darko doesn’t look bad enough lumped in with that group (and ahead of most), it doesn’t help that the class produced several other quality players. David West is the best and most consistent of the rest, but plenty of others have had far more productive careers than the #2 pick. Among them are Kirk Hinrich, Chris Kaman, Nick Collison, Boris Diaw, Mo Williams, T.J. Ford, and Kendrick Perkins.

Just an outstanding class. If you don’t believe me, ask the city of Miami.

2. Class of 1984: 44 Points (13 Star Points, 31 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Hakeem Olajuwon – Houston Rockets – 24.10
Highest-Rated Player: Michael Jordan (#3 Chicago Bulls) – 27.09
Rookie of the Year: Michael Jordan (#3 Chicago Bulls)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 4 3 MVPs, 3 DPOYs, 23 All NBA First Team (4 Players), 16 All NBA Second Team (5 Players), 8 All NBA Third Team (4 Players), 16 All Defense First Team (3 Player), 13 All Defense Second Team (3 Players), 50 All Star Appearances (7 Players)
Hall of Fame: Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Charles Barkley, John Stockton

The first truly great class in this study and one of the most decorated. Michael Jordan is clearly the face of this group of players. Many believe him to be the “greatest player of all time”, and he finished third in this study. (Those last two years in Washington cost him about a point-and-a-half.)

In addition to the truly great players – Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Charles Barkley, John Stockton – there were plenty of really good players. Alvin Robertson was one of the most tenacious defenders of his generation. Mav, Laker, and Pacer fans I’m sure will have fond memories of Big Smooth – Sam Perkins. Others with long, productive careers include Otis Thorpe, Kevin Willis, Michael Cage, Vern Fleming, and Jay Humphries.

Their 50 All Star appearances was second most in the study, and their 23 1st Team All NBA appearances and 47 total All NBA appearances (1st, 2nd, and 3rd team) are far higher than any other class over the 33 included here.

I mentioned above that the #2 pick was problematic. I was speaking of Sam Bowie, of course. Portland (using Indiana’s pick grumblegrumblegrumble) passed on Michael Jordan in favor of the slender 7-footer from Kentucky. The reasoning at the time was that the Blazers already had Clyde Drexler. Unfortunately, Bowie suffered an injury-plagued and shortened career. Sam was nowhere near the disaster that Darko Milicic was, but the fact that it was MJ that was passed over makes the selection hurt that much more.

1. Class of 1996: 55 Points (19 Star Points, 36 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Allen Iverson – Philadelphia 76ers – 18.45
Highest-Rated Player: Kobe Bryant (#13 Charlotte Hornets for Los Angeles Lakers) – 22.30
Rookie of the Year: Allen Iverson (#1 Philadelphia 76ers)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 3 MVPs, 1 DPOY, 14 All NBA First Team (3 Players), 10 All NBA Second Team (6 Players), 10 All NBA Third Team (6 Players), 10 All Defense First Team (2 Players), 4 All Defense Second Team (2 Players), 51 All Star Appearances (10 Players)
Hall of Fame: None (yet … Kobe, Iverson, Ray Allen, Nash)

The top three classes in this study are what you might call “generational” classes. The players drafted in that year greatly influence – if not outright dominate – the shape of the NBA over the course of a decade or more. We’ve probably passed out of the era of 1996′s dominance, and into that of the class of 2003, but that doesn’t diminish how good this class was. In terms of production and awards, 1996 stands head and shoulders above all others.

Kobe Bryant leads a group that can boast several players who spent at least a portion of their careers as among the very best in the game. Allen Iverson and Steve Nash both have MVP awards. Marcus Camby rebounded from a fragile early career to be one of the top defensive players in the league – earning a Defensive Player of the Year award. Ray Allen is among the best shooters in the history of the game and holds the NBA’s career mark for three pointers.

Jermaine O’Neal found a home in Indianapolis, becoming an MVP candidate and helping to lead the Pacers to their best regular season (61 wins) and an Eastern Conference Finals appearance. Antoine Walker was responsible for one of the best quotes of my lifetime (“Because there are no fours”), and one of the all time great pictures. The list goes on with players like Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Peja Stojakovic, Steph Marbury, and Derek Fisher.

The class of 1996 has been responsible for a lot of the drama and storylines over the last 15 years. We can only hope we see more classes like it.

Note: This completes the first series of this analysis, one that was started in the summer of 2010. For various reasons, this was not published contemporaneously with the first six parts. To remain consistent with the rest of the series, it includes only data through the 2009 draft class and 2009-2010 NBA season.

What Does a Draft Pick Get You? – Revisited

Tim Donahue — Mon, 18 Jun 2012 15:56:33 +0000

Way, way back in the summer of 2010, we published a rather ambitious analysis on all of the post-merger draft classes, encompassing 1997 through 2009 (NBA seasons 1978 through 2010). As part of the build up to the 2012 NBA Draft (Thursday, June 28, 7:00 PM), we’re going to dust this off.

We’ll start by linking back to the original series:

Part I: Stat Rankings and Number Crunching – The kickoff to the series gives the methodology and walks through the Top 60 picks for 33 years’ worth of draft classes. Here’s an excerpt that explains the measure being used – Production Rating (PR).

Number Crunching

In order to do a statistical analysis on this many players, I needed something that approached a unifying number or metric. For this analysis, I dusted off an old metric developed by Martin Manley in the late 1980s called “Production Rating.” It is calculated as follows:

Production Rating (PR) = (Points + Rebounds + Assists + Blocks + Steals – Turnovers – Missed Field Goals – Missed Free Throws)/Games Played

To update this metric a little I’ve made two adjustments to it:

Pace – I have basically adjusted all of the PR’s to a per 100 basis. As a shortcut, I used the Pace Factor for the player’s team for this adjustment. For example, Danny Granger’s 2010 numbers were “played at” 97.1, so they were multiplied by (100/97.1). It’s not perfect, but it’s sufficient for this purpose.

Reliability – Essentially, this is just a way to adjust for games missed. The net effect is to treat the games missed as a zero (0) PR. For career reliability, I put a minimum number of years at five (5) years. This clearly doesn’t impact players whose draft classes haven’t been in the league long enough, but it is meant to penalize players who played shorter than average careers. An example would former Pacer Kenny Williams, who only played for four years. His 260 games would be divided by 410, instead of 328. If a player played five or more years, he was not penalized for “missed” years. For example, neither Michael Jordan nor David Robinson were penalized for the full seasons that they missed either at the beginning and middle of their careers, respectively.

There are flaws in this system. It will overrate stat stuffers like Shawn Marion or Troy Murphy. It will underrate players like Scottie Pippen, Joe Dumars and Shane Battier, but, hey, so does PER. Overall, however, I don’t believe that this analysis is telling you (or me) any lies.

If you want to see how others have done this, Tom Haberstroh used EWA in the D.R.A.F.T. Initiative on ESPN, and Roland Beech of 82games.com used a very simple rating combining Points, Rebounds, and Assists per game.

Part II: Awards and Accolades – Where do MVPs get drafted? All Stars?

Part III: First Year Impact – What kind of production does a rookie draft pick give you?

Part IV: Validating AdjPR100 and the 5-Star System – A quick check on the relevance of the rating system.

Parts V, VI and VII were to be ranking the 33 draft classes, from “worst” to first, using a the following point system based on the 5-Star ratings and the Peak Award levels:

Parts V & VI were completed, and the links are below.

Part VII will be coming out (better late than never) by tomorrow, in order to provide a complete series.

From there, we’ll be updating the information for the last two years, and doing some analysis more relevant to the upcoming draft.

What kind of production has come from the #26 pick, as well as those taken after that slot? We’ll be investigating whether later picks have become more productive over the last few years. Some anecdotal evidence exists, as several of the most productive #26 picks have been recent ones – including Pacer and Indianapolis native, George Hill

How have Pacer execs Larry Bird and Kevin Pritchard done in the draft. For Bird, we’ll examine all of the Pacer picks since 2004 – as well as a discussion of draft day trades. For Pritchard, we’ll look at his tenure as the GM of the Portland Trailblazers, spanning from 2007 through 2009.

Updating the analysis to include the last two years. What do the classes of 2010 & 2011 look like? Have the last two years of data made any significant changes? It will also be worth spending some time taking a look at the Class of 2008 – which has generated enough success over the last two seasons to have placed it 6th among all the (now) 35 classes based on the system above.

These will come out over the next 10 days or so leading up to the draft.

What Does a Draft Pick Get You? Part VI: Ranking the Draft Classes 11-20

Tim Donahue — Sun, 19 Sep 2010 21:53:56 +0000

To (belatedly) continue our series on Draft History, Part VI will look at 10 more draft classes – ranked 11th through 20th. For more detail, please see the first five parts of this series:

In Parts V, VI and VII, I’m going to be ranking the 33 draft classes, from “worst” to first, using a the following point system based on the 5-Star ratings and the Peak Award levels:

20. Class of 1978: 14 Points (-1 Star Points, 15 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Mychal Thompson – Portland TrailBlazers – 15.23
Highest-Rated Player: Larry Bird (#6 Boston Celtics) – 25.00
Rookie of the Year: Phil Ford (#2 Kansas City Kings)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 3 Most Valuable Players (Larry Bird 3x’s), 9 All NBA First Team (1 Player), 2 All NBA Second Team (2 Players), 1 Defensive Player of the Year (Michael Cooper), 11 All Defense First Team (3 Player), 7 All Defense Second Team (3 Players), 21 All Star Appearances (5 Players)
Hall of Fame: Larry Bird

I’m gonna go out on a limb here. Larry Bird > Johnny Davis + Rick Robey. I know that’s controversial, but you gotta stand for something, or you’ll fall for anything.

Also, this class had arguably the best player selected late in this sample. Michael Cooper (#60) earned 8 All Defense nods, including 5 times on the First Team and a Defensive Player of the Year award.

Gotta respect a draft class that gives you both a player for the ages and the guy who played the best defense on him.

19. Class of 2004: 15 Points (8 Star Points, 7 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Dwight Howard – Orlando Magic – 25.57
Highest-Rated Player: Dwight Howard (#1 Orlando Magic) – 25.57
Rookie of the Year: Emeka Okafor (#2 Charlotte Bobcats)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 3 All NBA First Team (1 Player), 1 All NBA Third Team, 2 Defensive Player of the Year’s (Dwight Howard 2x’s), 2 All Defense First Team (1 Player), 3 All Defense Second Team (3 Players), 5 All Star Appearances (2 Players)

It will be interesting to see what kind of points this class has in, say, 5 years. The #1 selection, Dwight Howard, has become the most dominant defensive presence in the game, but he’s just one of a collection of pretty decent players taken in this class. At this point, Josh Smith (#17-Atlanta) has probably emerged as the second best player in the class. Other players – Andre Iguodala, Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, Devin Harris, Al Jefferson, Kevin Martin – have waxed and waned, but still have an opportunity to have good to very good careers. Orlando has a particular fondness for this draft class, as it brought them both Howard and Jameer Nelson.

The Pacers, on the other hand, got David Harrison and Rashad Wright. I watched this draft from a room in the Hotel Phillips in Kansas City, all the while hoping the Pacers would be able to pull off a rumored trade with Chicago. The gist of it was Al Harrington for the #7 pick, though I don’t recall all the details. Rumors were rampant that Bird wanted to take Luke Jackson, but it turned out later that actually the #3 pick – Ben Gordon – was his target. Chicago would only offer the #7, and no deal was struck. What might have been had the Pacers accepted the deal and taken Luol Deng with that pick. Odds are Danny Granger would have never become a Pacer, but also, they would have never been able to trade Al Harrington for Stephen Jackson.

How different would the last six years look for the Pacers?

18. Class of 1993: 16 Points (-2 Star Points, 18 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Chris Webber – Orlando Magic – 17.40
Highest-Rated Player: Chris Webber (#1 Orlando Magic) – 17.40
Rookie of the Year: Chris Webber (#1 Orlando Magic)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 3 All NBA First Team (2 Players), 5 All NBA Second Team (3 Players), 4 All NBA Third Team (4 Players), 17 All Star Appearances (7 Players)

Plenty of intrigue with this draft…at least with the top of this draft. Just one year prior, the Orlando Magic had won the lottery that brought them Shaquille O’Neal. Despite improving by 20 wins (from 21 to 41), the Magic still missed the playoffs. Orlando entered the lottery with but one chance in 66 – the longest possible odds at the time – but still left with the top pick. The next season, the lottery system was revamped to the current one, but that still left the up and coming Magic with the best help possible from the draft.

It got even better when Don Nelson became enamored of Chris Webber and traded Penny Hardaway (the #3 pick in this draft) and three – one, two, three – future first rounders to Orlando to get him. Within 24 months, Hardaway would have started in the NBA Finals for the Orlando Magic, while Don Nelson had already fallen out of love with Webber and dealt him to the Washington Bullets.

As a whole, this draft class was unexciting, and arguably not as good as the 2004 class we just discussed. It rates out better primarily because of some of the players – Webber, Hardaway, Vin Baker, Jamal Mashburn – performed at a high level for brief periods of time. Outside of the top dozen or so performers, there just wasn’t a lot of production. On a Production Rating basis, Sam Cassell (#24) and Nick Van Exel (#37) finished second and fourth, respectively. I find it unlikely that anyone from this class will make the Hall of Fame.

In any case, I might as well leave you with a picture of the #1 and #2 picks in the draft, as well as the most consistent image in Shawn Bradley’s career.

17. Class of 1995: 16 Points (2 Star Points, 14 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Joe Smith – Golden State Warriors – 11.91
Highest-Rated Player: Kevin Garnett (#5 Minnesota Timberwolves) – 27.18
Rookie of the Year: Damon Stoudamire (#7 Toronto Raptors)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 4 All NBA First Team (1 Player), 3 All NBA Second Team (1 Player), 3 All NBA Third Team (2 Players), 8 All Defense First Team (1 Player), 5 All Defense Second Team (3 Players), 21 All Star Appearances (5 Players)

The 1995 Draft Class is really about one man – Kevin Garnett. It’s important to recognize that of the list of awards above, KG is responsible for all of the All NBA Team awards except for Antonio McDyess’ solitary 3rd Team appearance. He has all of the All Defense First Team nods, and two All Defense Second Teams, and he accounts for 12 of the 21 All Star appearances. His 27.18 Production Rating is over 10 points higher than #2 on the list – Rasheed Wallace. Garnett is a stone cold lock for the Hall.

Still, there were a number of solid pros that came out of this draft. In addition to Garnett, McDyess, and Wallace, guys like Michael Finley, Damon Stoudamire, Joe Smith, Kurt Thomas, and Jerry Stackhouse all put in work for at least a decade. Pacer picks Travis Best and Fred Hoiberg turned in respectable performances – for where they were drafted.

16. Class of 1983: 16 Points (2 Star Points, 14 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Ralph Sampson – Houston Rockets – 10.77
Highest-Rated Player: Clyde Drexler (#14 Portland TrailBlazers) – 19.82
Rookie of the Year: Ralph Sampson (#1 Houston Rockets)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 All NBA First Team (1 Player), 3 All NBA Second Team (2 Players), 3 All NBA Third Team (2 Players), 1 All Defense First Team (1 Player), 3 All Defense Second Team (2 Players), 16 All Star Appearances (5 Players)

Rather than reminiscing or telling some possibly apocryphal story about the Pacers trying to sell their draft pick to Houston for $750,000 on the night of the coin toss, I’m going to extensively quote a much better writer than me. In his book Eating the Dinosaur, Klosterman includes an essay entitled, “What We Talk About When We Talk About Ralph Sampson.” In part, this essay says:

…Had he thrown away his career like Benny Anders, this entire essay would have been about how his failure was beautiful and interesting; as it is, it’s about how being the MVP of the ’85 All Star game is like being a brilliant pool player – sarcastic proof of a wasted life.

We used Ralph Sampson. I am using him now in almost the exact same manner I’m bemoaning. He is the post-playing piñata it’s acceptable to smash. It’s acceptable to fixate upon the things he did not do well enough, because all those personal catastrophes still leave him in a position of power. This is not an example of the media building someone up in order to knock him back down; this take down was far less satisfying. Sampson busted big by succeeding mildly.

This, to me, is a good illustration of the distorted, and often bizarre, lens we view these players through. Just a brief moment of perspective reminding us that we often hold these players to a much higher standard than we’d ever hold ourselves – before I return to doing exactly that.

15. Class of 1989: 16 Points (0 Star Points, 16 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Pervis Ellison – Sacramento Kings – 7.41
Highest-Rated Player: Shawn Kemp (#17 Seattle SuperSonics) – 17.56
Rookie of the Year: David Robinson (#1 in 1987 San Antonio Spurs)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 All NBA First Team (1 Player), 7 All NBA Second Team (3 Players), 2 All NBA Third Team (2 Players), 2 All Defense First Team (2 Player), 6 All Defense Second Team (2 Players), 21 All Star Appearances (9 Players)

Prior to the 2009 NBA draft, NBATV replayed a whole bunch of old draft telecasts. It just so happens that this was the replay I caught, and it probably gives me a dimmer view of this draft than most. It was a TNT broadcast, and it’s always amazing how cheesy the production values were even into the late ’80′s. This was more than a year ago, so I can’t quite recall who all was doing the broadcast, but I do recall Steve “Snapper” Jones and Rick Barry. I never liked Rick Barry, and that opinion was reinforced when he spent most of the first part of the draft in breathless anticipation of the selection of Stacey King from Oklahoma. I think the next time I heard about Stacey King, he was being referred to as “Burger” King by Michael Jordan.

Of course, the Pacers drafting George McCloud doesn’t exactly brighten my outlook on this class. What I remember about this Draft and the run up is:

Pervis Ellison was a head scratcher at #1. Admittedly, it was tough to say at the time who should have gone first, but still, I don’t recall many thinking it would be “Never Nervous” Pervis.

George McCloud was a disaster as a Pacer – shooting 39% in four years and missing a playoff game with an ankle injury supposedly suffered while talking on the phone – but he still managed to play in almost 800 games over 12 seasons in the NBA. He even found fleeting success in 1996, averaging almost 19 points a night for the 26-win Mavs.

There were some quality players in this draft – Glen Rice, Tim Hardaway, Mookie Blaylock, Cliff Robinson, Vlade Divac – but the best was almost certainly Shawn Kemp. From Concord, Indiana, it’s easy to forget just how good the Reign Man was amid stories of drug arrests, weight problems, and hackneyed jokes about his propensity for fathering children.

Danny Ferry, the #2 pick in this draft, chose to play in Italy rather than go to the Los Angeles Clippers. This move forced the Clippers to trade him to Cleveland for Ron Harper, two firsts, and a second. This is notable for two reasons. First, despite injuries to Harper in the first two years, you’ve got to admit that this trade was pretty lopsided in favor of the Clippers – a rarity in their history. Second, it allows me to refer to it as the “Harper Ferry” trade for the last 20+ years, and I will continue to refer to it as such until I see at least some glimmer of recognition when I say it.

14. Class of 1988: 16 Points (3 Star Points, 13 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Danny Manning – Los Angeles Clippers – 11.55
Highest-Rated Player: Mitch Richmond (#5 Golden State Warriors) – 15.74
Rookie of the Year: Mitch Richmond (#5 Golden State Warriors)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 4 All NBA Second Team (2 Players),3 All NBA Third Team (2 Players), 4 All Defense Second Team (3 Players), 13 All Star Appearances (6 Players)

I took an English Composition class as part of my core requirements during the first summer session of 1988. One of the compositions was to be persuasive, so I wrote about why the Pacers should take Rik Smits with the #2 pick in the draft. I found it in my attic a few years ago. The upside is that I got an A. The downside is that it was 99 different kinds of crap. It will not be reproduced here.

Other than that, this class may be the most mundane of the ones I’ve included. No Hall-of-Famers, and not really anyone for whom to make a strong case. Danny Manning was clearly the cream of this crop coming out, and – since he was drafted by the Clippers – he promptly injured his knee and missed 56 games his rookie year. Mitch Richmond averaged at or above 22 points per night for his 1st 10 seasons, but his teams were 330-421 when he played during that stretch. This was mostly just a collection of good contributors like Smits, Hersey Hawkins, Rony Seikaly, and “Thunder” Dan Majerle.

And – of course – this:

13. Class of 1981: 20 Points (3 Star Points, 17 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Mark Aguirre – Dallas Mavericks – 14.96
Highest-Rated Player: Larry Nance (#20 Phoenix Suns) – 19.35
Rookie of the Year: Buck Williams (#3 New Jersey Nets)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 3 All NBA First Team (1 Player), 5 All NBA Second Team (3 Players), 3 All Defense First Team (2 Players), 5 All Defense Second Team (3 Players), 31 All Star Appearances (8 Players)
Hall of Fame: Isiah Thomas

This draft class makes me smile – Isiah Thomas notwithstanding. It’s not so much that it has a bunch of great players, or a bunch of players that I liked. It’s just that it has so many players I remember watching. As I think about it now, this was really the year that I fell in love with Basketball…well the two years of 1980 and 1981, my 14th and 15th on the planet.

As a child, my sports passion changed with the seasons – Summer was baseball, Fall was football, Winter was basketball. Up until high school, if you’d forced me to pick one, I probably would have chosen baseball. I spent summers scouring box scores in the papers, but that probably reached its zenith when my childhood heroes Steve Carlton and Mike Schmidt led the Phillies to the ’80 World Series.

Basketball had started to chip away more as I began to connect to the roots of the Indiana High School Tournament. In the spring of 1980, I was an eighth grader watching Stacey Toran (later of Notre Dame and Oakland Raider football fame) throw in a half court shot in the afternoon game of the state finals to help the (Broad) Ripple Rockets advance past Marion on their way to a title. In Christmas of ’79, I had gotten a fancy-schmancy all-in-one stereo with a record player WITH AM-FM RADIO (the finest the J.C. Penney catalog had to offer – below a certain price) which let me listen to Don Fischer call all of the IU games on their way to the 1981 NCAA Title and Bob Lamey call every single Pacer game on the way to their first NBA Playoff appearance. (Lamey was/is a miserable announcer, and I thank my lucky stars each and every day that Mark and Slick do Pacer games these days.)

So, what does this have to do with this class? Well, it means I can remember watching the DePaul and #1 pick Mark Aguirre get upset by St. Joseph’s in the first round, 49-48. I can remember sitting slack-jawed as the #31 selection in this draft – Danny Ainge – dribbled the length of the floor in about 5 seconds with almost no resistance in order for BYU to upset a Notre Dame team featuring three players taken ahead of him in 1981 – Orlando Woolridge (#6), Kelly Tripucka (#12), and Tracy Jackson (#25) – as well as John Paxson, who was drafted #19 two years later.

I also watched the Indiana Hoosiers and #2 pick Isiah Thomas open the tournament by completely dismantling a Maryland Terrapins team featuring the #3 pick from this draft (Buck Williams) and the #10 pick from this draft (Albert King). However, my personal favorite on that IU team was the #18 pick in 1981 – Ray Tolbert.

By the time the 1981 NBA Draft was held, my connection to basketball had become permanent. And thinking of these guys, as well as others like Rolando Blackman, Tom Chambers, Larry Nance, and Eddie Johnson gives me a smile that the people currently surrounding me can’t quite understand.

12. Class of 2005: 22 Points (11 Star Points, 11 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Andrew Bogut – Milwaukee Bucks – 15.97
Highest-Rated Player: Chris Paul (#4 New Orleans Hornets) – 23.90
Rookie of the Year: Chris Paul (#4 New Orleans Hornets)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 All NBA First Team, 3 All NBA Second Team (2 Players), 1 All NBA Third Team, 1 All Defense First Team, 1 All Defense Second Team, 5 All Star Appearances (4 Players)

If this class could get healthy – and stay healthy – it could end up providing some all time great players. If there are five players in the world better than a healthy Chris Paul, I can’t name them. Deron Williams has emerged as one of the best players in the league, earning 2nd Team All NBA Honors the last two seasons and closing in on Chris Paul for honors as the best point guard in the league.

The #1 overall pick Andrew Bogut anchored perhaps the biggest feel good story – the Milwaukee Bucks – until his brutal elbow injury cut short his season. Andrew Bynum of the Lakers may be the most intriguing of the bunch, blessed with incredible size and athleticism, but possibly in a body too highly tuned to take the pounding. There were a couple of gems taken later, as well. David Lee was taken with the final pick of the first round, while Monta Ellis was drafted 40th overall.

Pacer fans, of course, look fondly upon this draft. It’s always fun to go back and read Bill Simmons’ 2005 Draft Diary. It’s great fun looking at every team drafting between fifth and sixteenth (with the arguable exception of the Lakers taking Bynum at #10), and thinking, “Danny Granger says, ‘Hi.”’ I must also admit that it’s possible that I get as much joy out of how excited Bill Simmons is about getting Gerald Green one pick after the Pacers took Danny Granger – knowing what we know now.

11. Class of 1986: 23 Points (7 Star Points, 16 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Brad Daugherty – Cleveland Cavaliers – 20.08
Highest-Rated Player: Brad Daugherty (#1 Cleveland Cavaliers) – 20.08
Rookie of the Year: Chuck Person (#4 Indiana Pacers)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 All NBA First Team (1 Player), 7 All NBA Third Team (4 Players), 2 Defensive Player of Year (Dennis Rodman 2x’s), 7 All Defense First Team (1 Player), 3 All Defense Second Team (2 Players), 14 All Star Appearances (5 Players)
Hall of Fame: Drazen Petrovic

Though there were some very good pros taken in this class, it’s probably better known for the tragedy and self-destructive behavior of it’s members. It started just days after the draft, when the #2 pick Len Bias was found dead of an apparent drug overdose. Years later, Drazen Petrovic’s life was cut short after 28 years when he was killed in an automobile accident in Germany. Top 10 picks Chris Washburn (#3), William Bedford (#4), and Roy Tarpley (#7) all destroyed their careers with drugs.

Even the successes among the Top Ten picks are somewhat muted. Brad Daugherty’s career was over at the age of 28 with recurring back problems. After a fantastic rookie year, Pacer Chuck Person seemingly plateaued. After being poised to become the face of the Pacers’ future, he had been surpassed in importance by teammates Reggie Miller and Detlef Schrempf by the time he was traded to Minnesota in the summer of 1992.

The best player from this draft was probably the #27 pick – Dennis Rodman – though his legacy is probably damaged (fairly or unfairly) by his reputation as something of a nutbar. He is almost certain to join Drazen Petrovic (#60) in the Hall of Fame, meaning that the Hall of Famers from this class will have been taken outside of the first round (only 24 picks in the first in 1986). Other well respected pros taken late in this draft include Jeff Hornacek (#46), Mark Price (#25), and Nate McMillan (#30).

Perhaps the most intriguing might have been Arvydas Sabonis, who was drafted 24th by Portland. Sabonis’ place in history will always be difficult to determine as he spent his prime behind the Iron Curtain – and I say that without a trace of sarcasm. I only saw glimpses of him during the ’80′s, but what I saw impressed. By the time he joined the NBA, he was over 30. However, he was still an excellent player. In the 1998 season, Sabonis averaged 16 points, 10 boards, and 3 assists as a 34-year old Blazer.

Though it pales in comparison to the personal losses suffered by those close to some of these players, NBA fans were robbed of a lot from this class by drugs, tragedy, and the Cold War.

If I understand my 8p9s back story well enough, this picture right here is why a boy from Orono, Maine, became a Pacer fan, started a Pacer website, and asked me to inundate you with lots and lots of words.

What Does a Draft Pick Get You? Part V: Ranking the Draft Classes — The 10 Worst

Tim Donahue — Thu, 24 Jun 2010 20:08:06 +0000

Today is the 2010 NBA Draft.

So it’s time to start back into our series on NBA Draft History. As a quick reminder, I’ve looked at every draft class since 1977 (the year the Pacers made their first NBA draft pick) to help understand the Draft better. For more detail, please see the first four parts of this series:

In Parts V, VI and VII, I’m going to be ranking the 33 draft classes, from “worst” to first, using a the following point system based on the 5-Star ratings and the Peak Award levels:

Because the “Peak Points” give some to the older classes, I’m going to treat the three drafts that have not yet completed their rookie contracts (2007, 2008 and 2009) as incomplete. These classes have made their first impressions, but it may be a just a touch too early to render a (semi-)permanent grade. Thus, we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and separate them from the others. But here’s a run-down of how they would have fared. (Note: For a complete list of players in any given class, simply click on the “Class of” link.)

Class of 2009: 3 Points (3 Star Points, 0 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Blake Griffin – Los Angeles Clippers – 0.00 (Did Not Play due to injury)
Highest-Rated Player: Stephen Curry (#7 Golden State Warriors) – 18.41
Rookie of the Year: Tyreke Evans (#4 Sacramento Kings)
Awards (Non-Rookie): None

We’ll begin at the end. The most recent class only earned three points, which would be 30th out of 33. However, this is far from a finished product. In fact, there was a lot of production and promise from this draft class. The Class of 2009 is only the seventh class out of the last 33 to have positive points after just one year, with only three classes having better opening campaigns.

Tyreke Evans was fantastic wire-to-wire, while Brandon Jennings dazzled early, and Steph Curry came on strong late. Last year’s draft, expected to be weak, churned out a surprising amount of productive players. Darren Collison, Taj Gibson, and Omri Casspi all made big contributions as late 1st Round picks, and Marcus Thornton, DeJuan Blair, and Jonas Jerebko made a nice splash as second rounders.

As we’ll see later, great production from a class during it’s rookie year is no guarantee of long-term success, but it certainly is a good sign.

Class of 2007: 6 Points (1 Star Point, 5 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Greg Oden – Portland TrailBlazers – 5.32
Highest-Rated Player: Kevin Durant (#2 Seattle SuperSonics) – 22.58
Rookie of the Year: Kevin Durant (#2 Seattle SuperSonics)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 All NBA First Team, 2 All Star Appearances (2 Players)

The anticipation for the 2007 Draft rivaled that of the LeBron draft of 2003, but unfortunately, it appears that the sizzle was more exciting than the steak. It did provide perhaps the most exciting young player in the league in Kevin Durant, but injuries to #1 pick Greg Oden have robbed the class of some star power.

Oden has missed two out of every three games the Blazers have played since draft day. This is unfortunate, since he’s been very productive when he actually played — posting an unadjusted 15.97 PR100, which would put him right on the cusp of being a 4-Star player. Hindsight says Oden was a bad pick, but the prevailing opinion at the time was to take the Big Guy. There were people touting Durant over Oden, but not nearly as many as some might have you believe. (Ed note: Durant was clearly waaaaaaaaay better even back then. Twas obvious he was uber-special. – JW)

Al Horford earned his first All Star appearance this year, and he’s blossomed into a very nice player. After that, there’s a pretty big drop off to solid, but unspectacular guys like Jeff Green and Joakim Noah. Going down the list, you find some nice contributors like Marc Gasol and Carl Landry. However, outside of Durant, it’s difficult to see any other players from this class becoming difference makers.

Class of 2008: 11 Points (10 Star Points, 1 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Derrick Rose – Chicago Bulls – 18.69
Highest-Rated Player: Brook Lopez (#10 New Jersey Nets) – 21.47
Rookie of the Year: Derrick Rose (#1 Chicago Bulls)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 All Star Appearance

The players from 2008 haven’t been given a lot of accolades, but teams have gotten some very nice production from this group. Brook Lopez and #1 Draft Pick Derrick Rose lead a group that includes Russell Westbrook, O.J. Mayo, and Kevin Love as big producers for their teams. Later draft picks like George Hill, Courtney Lee, and Luc Mbah a Moute have been significant contributors to playoff teams.

The Pacers took two players from this draft — Brandon Rush (#13) and Roy Hibbert (#17) — with mixed results. Rush looks OK for a #13, but probably no more than a fringe player on a good team. Hibbert shows pretty nice promise, and could be a starting 5 for a long time in this league, but still needs to make some strides.

Of the three classes as-yet-undetermined classes, 2008 looks to be the deepest — but all three represent a good influx of talent to the league.

Now it’s time to start passing out grades to the actually terrible draft classes

#30. Class of 2000: -8 Points (-12 Star Points, 4 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Kenyon Martin – New Jersey Nets – 12.91
Highest-Rated Player: Mike Miller (#5 Orlando Magic) – 13.52
Rookie of the Year: Mike Miller (#5 Orlando Magic)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 All NBA Third Team, 3 All Star Appearances (3 Players)

Gaaaack!

Let’s just run down the first 10 picks, shall we?

1. Kenyon Martin; 2. Stromile Swift; 3. Darius Miles; 4. Marcus Fizer; 5. Mike Miller; 6. DerMarr Johnson; 7. Chris Mihm; 8. Jamal Crawford; 9. Joel Pryzbilla; 10. Keyon Dooling

This was right after the Pacers had played in the 2000 Finals, so the Draft was far from a major concern for me, but does anybody remember if people were actually excited about this draft? Did teams tank down the stretch in the Kenyon Martin sweepstakes? I don’t remember, but I’m guessing that if (when) NBA TV replays this broadcast around draft time this year, we’d hear many of the same breathless superlatives that will be hurled at this year’s crop of players.

It’s something to keep in mind as Draft Fever strikes: There was an NBA draft held where the argument about who the best player out of the class is between Kenyon Martin, Mike Miller, Michael Redd and Hedo Turkoglu.

(shudder) It’s all this ugly.

#29. Class of 1980: -4 Points (-15 Star Points, 11 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Joe Barry Carroll – Golden State Warriors – 15.00
Highest-Rated Player: Kevin McHale (#3 Boston Celtics) – 18.73
Rookie of the Year: Darrell Griffith (#2 Utah Jazz)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 All NBA First Team, 3 All Defense First Team (1 Player), 5 All Defense Second Team (3 Players), 14 All Star Appearances (5 Players)
Hall of Fame: Kevin McHale

Bizarrely, this draft helped build one of the great dynasties of the ’80s. The Boston Celtics traded the #1 & #13 picks in the Draft (acquired from Detroit for Bob McAdoo) to Golden State in exchange for Robert Parish and the #3 pick, which they used to draft Kevin McHale. McHale ended up the best player in the draft, and he and Parish helped Larry Bird win three titles. Carroll went on to earn the monicker “Joe Barely Cares.”

From a strictly production perspective, this is arguably the worst draft class in the 33 years studied. The -15 Star Points is dead last, and only 3 of the 60 players reviewed for this class were rated as 3-Stars or higher. Still, there were some fun players taken here.

Darrell Griffith captured my 14-year old imagination as Dr. Dunkenstein. Bill Hanzlik was a tenacious defender with a porn mustache. The original Bruise Brothers — Jeff Ruland and Rick Mahorn — were from this class. Andrew Toney was a badass scorer – referred to as the “Boston Strangler” by the Boston media – who might have been a Hall of Famer if not for the injuries that robbed him – and the NBA – of a longer career.

It’s just that once you get past those guys, there’s just not much more. Thirty Six of the 60 players included either never played or finished as a 0-Star, and only 7 earned any of the accolades tracked in this study. Kevin McHale is in the Hall of Fame, but there are no other serious candidate for a class whose last game played was played by Rick Mahorn in 1999.

#28. Class of 2006: -4 Points (-9 Star Points, 4 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Andrea Bargnani – Toronto Raptors – 12.49
Highest-Rated Player: Brandon Roy (#6 Portland TrailBlazers) – 18.72
Rookie of the Year: Brandon Roy (#6 Portland TrailBlazers)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 All NBA Second Team, 1 All NBA Third Team, 1 All Defense First Team, 2 All Defense Second Team (2 Players), 3 All Star Appearances (2 Players)

Yeah, this draft sucked. OK. Let me re-state: Pacer fans think this draft sucked. Entering the evening the Pacers had apparent need for a point guard, which pretty much describes every draft night since 2000. When the #17 pick came around, they passed on the two top PG candidates – Marcus Williams and Rajon Rondo – and selected Shawne Williams from Memphis. Later in the evening, they traded Alexander Johnson (the 45th pick) and two future Second Round draft picks to Portland for the rights to James “Flight” White. White, in an amazing display of foreshadowing, chose the #0 – the number of games he would play as a Pacer in his career.

Marcus Williams slid from the Lottery to New Jersey at 22, where he fizzled. Rajon Rondo went 21 (about where he was projected, perhaps a little lower) to Phoenix, who traded his rights to Boston, where he has blossomed into one of the top players in the league.

Though the Pacers booted this draft, some other teams most certainly didn’t. Rondo is making a push for being the best player in this class, but I’d still rank Brandon Roy ahead of him. Other quality players include LaMarcus Aldridge (Portland getting a lot of mileage from this draft), Rudy Gay, and Second Rounder Paul Millsap. Thabo Sefolosha has emerged as one of the best defensive wings in the league, albeit not with the team that drafted him (Chicag0).

Andrea Bargnani has some talent, but still currently rates in the bottom third of all of the #1 picks in this 33-year sample. As we’ll see later, Andrew Bogut has grown into a player that is an important piece for a good team, but it remains to be seen if that will ever be true with Bargnani.

Continuing the Pacer fans generally cloudy view of 2006 (the draft and the year), I’ll leave you with an image of two things that couldn’t even make it to New Year’s Day – James White and the Spaulding Cross Traxxion Ball.

#27. Class of 1979: 4 Points (-13 Star Points, 17 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Magic Johnson – Los Angeles Lakers – 24.56
Highest-Rated Player: Magic Johnson (#1 Los Angeles Lakers) – 24.56
Rookie of the Year: Larry Bird (#6 in 1978 Draft Boston Celtics)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 3 Most Valuable Players (Magic Johnson 3x’s), 10 All NBA First Team (2 Players), 6 All NBA Second Team (3 Players), 2 Defensive Player of the Years (Sidney Moncrief 2x’s), 4 All Defense First Team (1 Player), 2 All Defense Second Team (2 Players), 21 All Star Appearances (5 Players)
Hall of Fame: Magic Johnson

Two rookies from the 1980 season — Magic and Larry — arguably saved the NBA. Unfortunately, only one was from the Class of ’79 (Magic), and the rest of the class was pretty thin. Though teams today suffer lottery heartbreak, back then, the number one pick was decided by a coin flip between the teams with the worst record in each conference. That season was between the New Orleans Jazz (in their last season in the Big Easy) representing the East, and the Chicago Bulls, then in the Western Conference. The Lakers had gotten the pick from the Jazz as part of a compensation package from New Orleans signing Gail Goodrich in 1976.

The Lakers won the coin toss, Magic Johnson, and 5 NBA Titles. The Bulls got David Greenwood, and a permanent place in the argument about biggest dropoff between #1 and #2 picks – along side the likes of Wayman Tisdale (Patrick Ewing), Sam Bowie (Hakeem Olajuwon), Keith Van Horn (Tim Duncan), and Darko Milicic (LeBron James). OK. Darko does kinda dominate that one.

Sidney Moncrief stands clearly as the second best player in the draft, though only sporting a middling 14.51 AdjPR100 (but an 18.7 Career PER). He is not in the Hall of Fame at present, probably because he only played 767 regular season games, but that’s really weak tea. This is a guy with 5 All NBA nods (1 First Team, 4 Second), 5 All Star appearances, and 5 All Defense appearances (4 First, 1 Second). Top those off with two Defensive Player of the Year awards, and you have to wonder what a guy has to do to get into the Hall.

The most articulate comment on the weakness of this class overall is the fact that the argument for the third best player probably is between Bill Cartwright and Vinnie Johnson. The 19 players who never played a game was the highest of any of the 33 classes in this series. Truth be told, this class is probably worse, as a whole, than most others mentioned to this point…but Magic pretty much lifts it up all by himself.

#26. Class of 1982: 5 Points (-14 Star Points, 19 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: James Worthy – Los Angeles Lakers – 16.95
Highest-Rated Player: Dominique Wilkins (#3 Atlanta Hawks) – 19.66
Rookie of the Year: Terry Cummings (#2 San Diego Clippers)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 All NBA First Team, 6 All NBA Second Team (3 Players), 5 All NBA Third Team (3 Players), 2 All Defense First Team (1 Player), 2 All Defense Second Team (2 Players), 21 All Star Appearances (6 Players)
Hall of Fame: James Worthy, Dominique Wilkins

A great class for Forwards, but not a lot else. In addition to Hall of Famers James Worthy and Dominique Wilkins, others drafted here included Terry Cummings, Clark Kellogg, Ricky Pierce, Cliff Levingston and Paul Pressey. Fat Lever and Sleepy Floyd were quality point guards, but the class was almost devoid of bigs, with only LaSalle Thompson being of any consequence.

No, the players in this draft are known more for odd trivia than anything else. Bill Garnett (#4 – Dallas) testified about what kind of pay a Top 5 NBA pick got in a civil suit concerning former Indiana University Star Landon Turner’s automobile accident. The rule saying that you cannot catch-and-shoot in less than 0.3 seconds is the “Trent Tucker” rule. Quintin Dailey’s career at the University of San Francisco resulted in a sexual assault charge and the USF Basketball program being shut down by the school for 4 years. Also, during a 1985 game against the Spurs, Dailey had a ballboy borrow a fiver from a reporter, go to the concession stand, and buy him a slice of pizza. Dailey then sat at the end of the bench, eating the pizza.

God, I miss the ’80′s.

#25. Class of 2002: 8 Points (-3 Star Points, 11 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Yao Ming – Houston Rockets – 20.86
Highest-Rated Player: Yao Ming (#1 Houston Rockets) – 20.86
Rookie of the Year: Amare Stoudemire (#9 Phoenix Suns)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 1 All NBA First Team, 5 All NBA Second Team (2 Players), 4 All NBA Third Team (2 Players), 4 All Defense Second Team (1 Player), 13 All Star Appearances (4 Players)

The story of the top 5 picks is really quite intriguing here. Yao has demonstrated his clear worth as a number 1 pick, but missed all of last season. Jay Williams’ career was ended by a motorcycle accident after a decent, if unspectacular rookie campaign. Mike Dunleavy, Jr. appeared to have significantly erased charges of “bust” with a great 2008 season, only to miss 79 of his next 164 games. Drew Gooden has played for eight teams in his eight seasons. Finally, Nikoloz Tskitishvili (Skita) proved to be the queen mother of all busts at #5, becoming the cautionary tale for undeveloped European players, Summer League wonders, and guys with way too many consonants in their name.

Some good players came later, though, including Amare Stoudemire, Nene Hilario, Caron Butler, Carlos Boozer, Luis Scola, and Tayshaun Prince.

Speaking of Tayshaun Prince, this is the fun draft where Donnie Walsh (and apparently every other basketball mind in the room) wanted to take him with the Pacers’ 14th pick. Instead, Donnie deferred to Isiah Thomas, who selected Freddie Jones.

Yeah.

#24. Class of 1990: 9 Points (0 Star Points, 9 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Derrick Coleman – New Jersey Nets – 13.32
Highest-Rated Player: Gary Payton (#2 Seattle SuperSonics) – 19.52
Rookie of the Year: Derrick Coleman (#1 New Jersey Nets)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 2 All NBA First Team (1 Player), 5 All NBA Second Team (1 Player), 4 All NBA Third Team (2 Players), 1 Defensive Player of the Year (Gary Payton), 9 All Defense First Team (1 Player), 13 All Star Appearances (5 Players)

To some degree, this class is a lot like 1979, where it boils down to one outstanding player plus a lot of other guys. The Class of ’90 essentially amounts to Gary Payton and everybody else. Payton accounts for all of the First and Second Team All NBA and All Defense nods, as well as 9 of the 13 All Star appearances. The former Defensive Player of the Year isn’t eligible yet, but he should be in on the first ballot in 2013.

With this class, however, there isn’t even a Sidney Moncrief-type under-appreciated player. Derrick Coleman won Rookie of the Year and the other two All NBA Third Team awards, but really didn’t distinguish himself other than as something of a headcase. The score for this class is basically more about not having as many failures than it is about any wealth of excellence.

The better players in this class include players who played solid but unexciting careers like Antonio Davis or Tyrone Hill, or talented but somewhat one-dimensional guys like Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf and Dennis Scott. Payton will be the only Hall of Famer here.

#23. Class of 1991: 10 Points (-2 Star Points, 12 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Larry Johnson – Charlotte Hornets – 17.62
Highest-Rated Player: Larry Johnson (#1 Charlotte Hornets) – 17.62
Rookie of the Year: Larry Johnson (#1 Charlotte Hornets)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 2 All NBA Second Team (2 Players), 2 All NBA Third Team (1 Player), 4 Defensive Player of the Year’s (Dikembe Mutombo 4x’s), 3 All Defense First Team (1 Player), 4 All Defense Second Team (2 Players), 16 All Star Appearances (7 Players)

A slightly more decorated version of the preceding class, it remains largely nondescript. It’s most famous products are a pair of ridiculously sharp elbows and a nauseating 4-point play. The Pacers did pick up the second half of their Davis Boys combo (Dale), so that takes a little of the edge off of Jess Kersey’s famous call.

However, more than Dikembe Mutombo and his wagging fingers, what strikes me about this class is what I can remember. I have absolutely, positively no recollection of the #8 pick in 1991 class: Mark Macon. None. Zip. Zilch. Nada. Seriously. Do you know this man?

#22. Class of 1997: 11 Points (-3 Star Points, 14 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Tim Duncan – San Antonio Spurs – 27.62
Highest-Rated Player: Tim Duncan (#1 San Antonio Spurs) – 27.62
Rookie of the Year: Tim Duncan (#1 San Antonio Spurs)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 2 Most Valuable Players (Tim Duncan 2x’s), 2 All NBA Second Team (2 Players), 2 All NBA Third Team (1 Player), 3 All Defense First Team (1 Player), 4 All Defense Second Team (2 Players), 16 All Star Appearances (7 Players)

All of the awards at this are concentrated in three players – Tim Duncan, Tracy McGrady, and Chauncey Billups. Tim Duncan is the poster child for finding a foundation piece in the draft, as the Spurs built a championship dynasty around him. McGrady and Billups each attained their highest achievements playing for teams other than the ones that drafted them. But really, as you’ll find with most of these middling classes, it’s the story of one player, and that player here is Tim Duncan.

#21. Class of 1994: 12 Points (-1 Star Points, 13 Peak Points)

#1 Draft Pick: Glenn Robinson – Milwaukee Bucks – 15.55
Highest-Rated Player: Jason Kidd (#2 Dallas Mavericks) – 20.97
Rookie of the Year: Jason Kidd (#2 Dallas Mavericks); Grant Hill (#3 Detroit Pistons)
Awards (Non-Rookie): 6 All NBA First Team (2 Players), 5 All NBA Second Team (2 Players), 2 All NBA Third Team (2 Players), 4 All Defense First Team (1 Player), 8 All Defense Second Team (2 Players), 21 All Star Appearances (5 Players)

This draft was held during the brief window of time where the NBA decided to have different teams host it. As a result, I actually got to watch this draft in person. Hosted by the Pacers in the Hoosier/RCA Dome, it was a heady time to be a Pacer fan. The team had just made its first deep playoff run, falling in a heartbreaking Game 7 loss to the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals. New Pacer heroes Haywoode Workman and Antonio Davis were there, and local fans watched Purdue product Glenn Robinson go number 1 to Milwaukee.

The Pacers were active that day, at one point or another holding the rights to four different players in the draft, and perhaps setting a record by not getting a single regular season game out of any of them. With their 15th pick, they selected Eric Piatkowski, but traded him to the Clippers as part of a package for Mark Jackson. At 41, they took William Njoku, a 6-9 Forward from Ghana by way of Canada, who spent a decade kicking around Europe without ever even sniffing the NBA. However, Njoku was probably just taken by Donnie Walsh to tweak the IU fans in the house, all anxiously awaiting the selection of IU Star Damon Bailey – who was eventually taken with the Pacers 44th pick.

However, my favorite story was about the 25th pick, Greg Minor, who came to the Pacers along with Mark Jackson in the Clippers deal. Apparently, the Pacers never bothered to sign him allowing him to become a free agent under league rules at the time. He signed with Boston and spent five uneventful years with them.

Jason Kidd is clearly the best player from this class, and a lead pipe cinch to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Grant Hill is the tragedy of this draft, a special, versatile player whose career has been irrevocably damaged by injuries. Some other really nice players were also drafted, including Jalen Rose, Eddie Jones, and Brian Grant.

However, this is also a draft where Sharone Wright was taken with the 6th pick.

And…oh, yeah…Yinka Dare.

We’ll be back after the draft with the Top 20 draft classes.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AmIbtotgwGeodFhNajdpUE5lc29IdEI3SllCUUxxN1E&hl=en

What Does A Draft Pick Get You? Part IV: Validating AdjPR100 and the 5-Star System

Tim Donahue — Wed, 26 May 2010 23:49:54 +0000

As a check on Part I and my rating system, here is a visual look at where the career awards and accolades discussed in Part II are distributed among the 5-Star rating system. Basically, this is just a section that I ended up cutting from Part II that helps show that the system I’ve been using has produced realistic results. I figured I may as well share in case you were questioning the statistics underlying the conclusions.

With a radar or “spider” chart, you can see the relative distribution changes. The shaded areas indicate the distribution, and the simplest way to think of these is to imagine your reading a clock. There are six sectors, with the 5-Star rating at 12 o’clock position. Starting with the MVP Chart, you can see that the shade area is contained almost entirely within the first sector. As you read through the seven charts above you’ll see the shading (distribution) creep clockwise, encompassing more of the lower ratings.

There are two things that I see in these spiderwebs that give me some comfort. First is the “rotation of the clock,” as noted above. The hurdles for the MVP, HOF or All-NBA are higher than All-Star, so if the 5-Star scale is in sync — or at least in general agreement — with the subjective awards, we should see that clockwise spin. (Note: All-Defense would dip the furthest down the scale, not because the players who make that team are worse, but because there is no statistical system that I’m aware of that accurately, or even adequately, quantifies defensive contribution.)

The second area of comfort is that the award winners are concentrated higher on the scale. The only award with a significant concentration at 2-Star or below is All-Defense, which can again be rationalized by pointing out the lack of adequate defensive statistics.

All in all, the 5-Star scale, in my opinion, passes the sniff test.

What Does a Draft Pick Get You? Part III: First-Year Impact

Tim Donahue — Tue, 25 May 2010 15:23:28 +0000

For Part III of our as-yet-to-be-numbered series analyzing the NBA Draft, we’re going to focus on the first year. Using some of the ideas first presented in Part I and Part II, this will look at the “instant gratification” that may or may not come from the Draft.

One thing that must be reiterated is that this will focus on the players’ performance the year they were drafted. There were 17 players from the 2009 Draft class that did not play last season. Some of these, like Blake Griffin and Ricky Rubio, are almost certain to play in the NBA in the future. Others, like Robert Vaden and Robert Dozier, are far more likely to never see NBA game action. In this collection of draft classes, there have been 179 players (besides the 17 from the 2009 class) who played their “rookie” year later than the rest of the draft class. Seventeen of these players ended up earning All-Rookie honors in later years, and two — Larry Bird and David Robinson — even won Rookie of the Year.

However, since we’re theoretically trying to look at what might be expected of the 2010 Draft class next season, all of these players show a 0.00 AdjPR100 for their first year. While some were calculated decisions (Bird, Robinson, Toni Kukoc, Manu Ginobili) and others were not (Greg Oden, Griffin, Rubio), none contributed to their teams on the court the year they were drafted.

An Overview

Let’s start things up again with a look at the Simple Average Adjusted PR per 100 by Draft Slot.

The bars represent the first-year AdjPR100, while the line shows career average. I don’t find it particularly surprising that the career average is higher in most cases, particularly as you move later in the Draft. The #3 pick is the one lone outlier, and a quick check shows a number of players whose career failed to match the expectations set by their first-year performance — usually due to injury. Among these are Bill Cartwright (22.15 vs. 11.78), Christian Laettner (21.67 vs. 14.64), and Penny Hardaway (20.20 vs. 11.32).

The draft slot that showed the greatest increase after the first year was the #11 pick, and Pacer great Reggie Miller had one of the best improvements (9.42 to 17.11).

I’m going to do this one a little differently from the first two. Rather than going through each draft grouping in varying levels of detail, I’m going to give you a look at first the 5-Star statistical analysis, then the First-Year Honors. As in Part II, I’ll use spider charts, which will hopefully give you some sense of motion as you scroll through this post. For a complete list of each draft grouping, simply click on that group’s header in the 5-Star Rating section.

The 5-Star Ratings

A more detailed explanation of this can be found in Part I of this series. The charts below represent the AdjPR100 for the year that the player was drafted. Again, this is basically production, adjusted for Pace and Reliability.

Picks #1 to #3

The top three grouping shows, in my opinion, the kind of dramatic production the people hope for out of this area in the draft. Over 60% of the players selected in this group turned in first-year numbers that rated them at 3-Stars or above (out of a possible 5-Stars). Of course, the fact that these players are usually being added to teams lacking in talent provides ample opportunity for them to put up numbers. Later in this post, I’ll break down how much playing time each of these groupings have seen the year they were drafted, but for now, I want to try to move quickly through each of the groups to keep that sense of motion, or “reading the clock” for these spider charts.

Picks #4 to #6

The clockwise motion begins with a sizable swing towards the bottom of the dial. The 3-Star and above ratings drop to about 40 percent, and only Chris Paul earns 5 stars. The Rifleman’s — Chuck Person — first year of 19.87 was the second best from this draft grouping, and marks the high-water mark of his career. This year’s Rookie of the Year, Tyreke Evans, earns a 4-Star rating with his 18.34. Pacer bust Jonathan Bender’s 0.42 AdjPR100 marks the worst campaign of the 97 draftees that played with their draft class.

Picks #7 to #9

The 3-Star and above ratings drop to under 30 percent, but the median remains at or above 2-Star. Indiana Pacer Clark Kellogg posted the lone 5-Star season with a 21.64, but George McCloud’s 1.11 was better than only three of the 98 draftees who played.

Picks #10 to #12

No more 5-Star first-year campaigns, and fewer than 10% are 3-Star or above. We know that some good players come out of this area of the draft, it’s just that very few of them make an immediate impact. Reggie’s rookie year had 2-Star production that put him in the top third of this grouping.

There’s more to be gained from the trending of the charts, than there is any comments on each draft group, so just follow the clock for the rest of the sample, and I’ll hit the high points at the end of the section.

Picks #13 to #15

Picks #16 to #18

Picks #19 to #21

Picks #22 to #24

Picks #25 to #27

Picks #28 to #30

Picks #31 to #40

Picks #41 to #50

Picks #51 to #60

A quick way to get a feel for the above charts is to center on the spiderweb for the #1 to #3 picks, then simply page down at a steady rate. It will give the charts an animation, bringing the clockwise rotation towards “Never Played” to life. Basically, history says that the chances of your team getting a significant first-year contribution after about the middle of the first round are pretty small.

From 16 to 60, the “best” first year performance was turned in by Mark Jackson for the Knicks in 1988. As the #18 pick, Jackson posted a 4-Star 20.87 on his way to being the latest Rookie of the Year drafted in this sample. However, that is far from representative. Again, using our own A.J. Price for perspective, his 1-Star 4.51 rating was in the top 20% of all first-year performances under this rating system. Of the 272 players drafted between 51st & 60th in this sample, he had the 12th “best” first-year performance.

One thing that is worthy of further study is whether this is an ongoing phenomenon or if this is actually changing. The 2009 rookie class saw immediate impact from players taken in the late first or early second round. Among these were Darren Collison, Taj Gibson and Omri Casspi from late first round, and Jonas Jerebko, DeJuan Blair and Marcus Thornton from the second round. While it’s likely to remain true that the chances are slim with these picks, it would be interesting to see if there has been a significant increase in the hit rate over the last decade or so. That will have to wait for another part in this series.

Awards and Honors

The “Awards and Honors” we’ll talk about here are Rookie of the Year and First Team and Second Team All-Rookie. (Note: Second Team All-Rookie was not awarded until the 1989 season.) Again, I want to use visuals as opposed to commentary.

Picks #1 to #3

Picks #4 to #6

Picks #7 to #9

Picks #10 to #12

Picks #13 to #15

Picks #16 to #60

Consistent with the 5-Star system, charting out the awards gets a bit pointless after the 15th pick, so I just condensed picks #16 through #60 on one chart. Of the 1,427 players drafted between the 16th and 60th pick in this study, only 14 made First Team All-Rookie. Another 33 made Second Team, and one (Mark Jackson) was named Rookie of the Year. Given that less than 3% of these players were even a blip on this radar, the #16 to #60 chart equates to the “Line of Death” — the near-flat, bold line running at a 45% angle from upper left on the chart to the bottom right, tracing from “Did Not Play” to “None.” If I were to show you all of the individual Draft Groups, they would all be virtually identical.

Still, rookie awards are not the final word on a player’s career, so while “Line of Death” is fun to say, it’s not 100% accurate. Of the 209 players discussed in Part II of this series, 99 of them received no Rookie Honors. Of the 263 players earning All-Rookie honors, 143 (excluding this year’s group) have received no other honors. Like the Awards and Accolades over the career, these tell only a portion of the story for players

The Super Rookies

Over the last 33 years, some players have been able to achieve non-rookie honors during their rookie season. Here’s a look at those “Super Rookies.”

All Stars (16) – Walter Davis, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Bill Cartwright, Isiah Thomas, Buck Williams, Kelly Tripucka, Ralph Sampson, Hakeem Olajuwon, Michael Jordan, David Robinson, Dikembe Mutombo, Shaquille O’Neal, Grant Hill, Tim Duncan, Yao Ming

All Defense (3) – Hakeem Olajuwon (Second Team), David Robinson (Second Team), Tim Duncan (2nd Team)

All NBA (6) – Larry Bird (First Team), Tim Duncan (1st Team), Michael Jordan (Second Team), Walter Davis (Second Team), Phil Ford (Second Team), David Robinson (Third Team)

There were no rookies between 1978 and 2010 who won the MVP and Rookie of the Year, but Wilt Chamberlain did it in 1960, and Wes Unseld repeated the feat in 1969.

Playing Time

The standard fan mantra for their new rookie’s playing time is “more,” so I’m not even going to try to address the issue of what’s “enough.” Each situation is unique, but here’s a little overview of what kind of action these players have seen.

There’s nothing particularly revelatory here: high draft picks play more during their first year than later picks.

Still, here are some nuggets about first-year playing time:

Only 21 players drafted over the last 33 years have started all 82 games in the year they were drafted. Only two were selected outside of the Top 10 — Kelly Tripucka (#12) and Mario Chalmers (#34). Larry Bird started all 82 games his rookie year, but he did not play with his draft class.

In this sample of 1,922 players, only three played more than 3,200 minutes in their first year. Surprisingly, Tim Duncan (#1) was the only “high” draft pick, playing 3,204 minutes. Michael Finley (#21) played 3,212 minutes, and Mark Jackson (#18) led everyone in this group with 3,249.

Pacers of interest: Only 13 of 272 players drafted between #51-#60 over the last 33 years played more during the year they were drafted than Price’s 865 minutes. Of the 99 players drafted between #13-#15, only 13 played more minutes than Brandon Rush did in the 2009 season. Tyler Hansbrough is near the bottom with 511 minutes, but he spent most of his 29 games operating under either a 15- or 22-minute medical limitation. In effect, his 17.6 minutes per outing arguably indicates that he played almost every minute he was available to play.

The End of the Beginning

Over the first three parts of this series, we’ve more or less laid the foundation of myriad discussions about the draft. I’ve got some in the works (including an analysis of the #10 pick and a ranking of the last 33 draft classes) but I’m open to ideas on what other subjects to broach. The feedback from the first two has provided some ideas, and I’m willing to try anything — provided I have the ability to get the data.

The draft is a month away, so there’s plenty of time to fill.

What Does a Draft Pick Get You? Part II: Awards and Accolades

Tim Donahue — Fri, 21 May 2010 18:00:03 +0000

On Tuesday, I kicked off this series on the NBA Draft by doing a little number crunching. Now, it’s time to look where the award winners came from in the draft.

Breaking Down the Players

Most everyone knows the value of accolades like MVP awards, All-NBA selections or All-Star team nods. It’s true these are subjective by nature, but their record is fact. You could argue that Shaquille O’Neal or Kobe Bryant should have won the MVP the years they were awarded to Steve Nash, but the fact is that Nash actually won them. Even in disagreement, the shared understanding is sufficient to provide proper perspective.

Let’s start by looking at how many players actually received a major award/accolade during their careers. In order to avoid duplication, the chart below shows where players who were drafted peaked during their career.

One of the things that immediately jumps out at you is exactly how hard it is to get any of these accolades. Of the 1,553 drafted players in the sample that saw floor time since 1978, only 209 have been able to achieve one of these seven accolade categories. Almost twice as many draftees never played as were honored in these tiers. It’s also important to note that the All-NBA Third Team was not added until the 1989 season, and that could have impacted some of the players who peaked as All-Stars prior to that.

Most Valuable Player

The single most exclusive club in the NBA. When discussing this with Jared, I had initially put Hall of Fame at the top of the pyramid. However, Jared made the simple point that it’s easier to draft a Hall of Famer than it is to draft an MVP. The point is driven home by the fact that every single NBA MVP that is eligible for the Hall of Fame is in the Hall of Fame. (Also, the fact that four of the seven men who won ABA MVPs — Mel Daniels, Spencer Haywood, George McGinnis and Artis Gilmore — are not enshrined leaves an ugly black mark on the HOF’s soul.)

This chart paints a pretty clear picture. The scale is set at 100% to put the odds in the proper light. Only 15 players drafted in this sample have earned MVPs, representing less than 1% of the total, and none were drafted later than 15th. These 15 men account for 27 of the 33 MVPs handed out during this period (with the others — Mosses Malone, Bill Walton, Kareem Adbul-Jabbar and Julius Erving — all having been drafted before 1977.)

Here is a break down of the 15 players by pick:

Picks #1 – #3: Eight Players

#1 – Magic Johnson (x3), Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, Shaquille O’Neal, Allen Iverson, Tim Duncan (x2), LeBron James (x2)
#3 – Michael Jordan (x5)

Picks #4 – #6: Three Players

#5 – Charles Barkley, Kevin Garnett
#6 – Larry Bird (x3)

Picks #7 – #9: One Player

#9 – Dirk Nowitzki

Picks #10 – #12: Zero Players

none

Picks #13 – #15: Three Players

#13 – Karl Malone (x2), Kobe Bryant
#15 – Steve Nash (x2)

Picks #16 and Up: Zero Players

none

Of the over 1,400 players selected after the 15th pick in the last three-plus decades, not a single one has been named MVP. The message to those picking outside of the Top 3: Don’t count on an MVP. The message for Washington, Philly and New Jersey: Only 8 of 99 players taken in the Top 3 over the last 33 drafts have become MVPs, so … Don’t count on an MVP.

Hall of Fame

It should be acknowledged that it is impossible to get a complete list of the Hall of Famers from these draft classes simply because so many of them are either still playing or not yet eligible. Of the 1,922 draftees from 1977 to 2009, there are 1,255 who are Hall of Fame “eligible.” (That is to say that they have been out of the league for the five-year requirement.) The number that are actually Hall of Fame “worthy” is only a tiny percentage of that.

Seventeen have been inducted into the Hall.

Once again, the top three dominates this grouping, making up over 50% of the total. Here’s the full breakdown.

Picks #1 – #3: Nine Players

#1 – Magic Johnson, James Worthy, Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson
#2 – Isiah Thomas
#3 – Kevin McHale, Dominique Wilkins, Michael Jordan

Picks #4 – #6: Three Players

#5 – Charles Barkley, Scottie Pippen
#6 – Larry Bird

Picks #7 – #9: Zero Players

none

Picks #10 – #12: Zero Players

none

Picks #13 – #15: Two Players

# 13 – Karl Malone
# 14 – Clyde Drexler

Picks #16 – #18: Two Players

# 16 – John Stockton
# 18 – Joe Dumars

Picks #19 – #50: Zero Players

none

Picks #51 – #60: One Player

# 60 – Drazen Petrovic

This is a bit like the MVP; you should only go into the draft thinking that you will select someone headed to Springfield rarely, if ever. The 17 inductees represents 0.88% of the total draft pool. Again, seeing this on the 100% scale should show you how hard this is to achieve. Other than the concentration in the first two groupings, the occurrences seem almost random. Nothing between 6th and 13th, then four selectees between 13 and 18. Looking far out to the right shows you Drazen Petrovic, the Nets shooting guard killed in an automobile accident before his 30th birthday. His NBA career had just started to blossom, and he earned his slot based largely on his career in Europe.

In looking at this sample, I’d say there’s probably not more than another 50 guys — at the most — out of this almost 2,000 draftees that will finish with careers worthy of Hall consideration. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was less than half that number, making this pretty rarified air. Most of the ones that I can think of are still playing — like the seven active MVP’s above. Gary Payton seems to be a lock, and Pacer fans certainly expect Reggie Miller to join this club sometime in the next two or three years.

However, the selection process for the Hall is very “Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain”-ish. A quick scan of names shows me that neither Chris Mullin nor Buck Williams are members, nor is Bernard King or Sidney Moncrief. I mentioned some ABA guys in the MVP section, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that neither Slick Leonard nor Roger Brown have busts in the Hall.

I’m not going to try to start this debate right now, but the mention of Petrovic and his late selection made me wonder about other late picks who might make it. Here’s a question I don’t know the answer to: Is Manu Ginobili, drafted #57, a future Hall of Famer? Here’s another one: Why isn’t Arvydas Sabonis (drafted #24) in the Hall?

The Hall of Fame gives me headaches.

All-NBA Teams

Though it gets less buzz in the general public’s conversation than All-Star appearances, making an All-NBA team is an achievement that carries more weight. There are fewer spots awarded each year (15 vs. 24), and these accolades are never skewed by fan voting. In the chart below, you can see the percent of each draft group that achieved All-NBA status. (Note: The NBA has been awarding 1st Team and 2nd Team nods for the entire span of this sample, but they have only added the 3rd Team since 1989.)

There are 99 All-NBA players from these draftees, or just a tick over 5% of the draft picks. Once again, high draft picks drive this group, accounting for over two-thirds of the total. It starts to get reasonable to hope/expect your selection to earn this honor if you’re drafting in the top three. For the rest of the draft, it’s still a long shot.

Here’s the full break down of the 41 First-Teamers by draft position:

Picks #1 – #3: Twenty-One Players

#1 – Allen Iverson, Chris Webber, David Robinson, Dwight Howard, Hakeem Olajuwon, LeBron James, Magic Johnson, Patrick Ewing, Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan
#2 - Alonzo Mourning, Gary Payton, Isiah Thomas, Jason Kidd, Kevin Durant
#3 – Penny Hardaway, Dominque Wilkins, Grant Hill, Kevin McHale, Marques Johnson, Michael Jordan

Picks #4 – #6: Seven Players

#4 – Chris Paul
#5 - Charles Barkley, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Garnett, Scottie Pippen, Sidney Moncrief
#6 – Larry Bird

Picks #7 – #9: Five Players

#7 – Bernard King, Chris Mullin
#9 - Amar’e Stoudemire, Dirk Nowitzki, Tracy McGrady

Picks #10 – #12: Zero Players

none

Picks #13 – #15: Five Players

# 13 – Karl Malone, Kobe Bryant
# 14 – Clyde Drexler, Tim Hardaway
# 15 – Steve Nash

Picks #16 – #18: One Player

# 16 – John Stockton

Picks #19 – #21: Zero Players

none

Picks #22 – #24: One Player

# 24 – Latrell Sprewell

Picks #25 – #27: One Player

# 25 – Mark Price

Picks #28 and Above: Zero Players

none

First Team All-NBA is a pretty impressive accomplishment, as it means that you were considered among the top five players in the game that season. Thirty-five of these 41 elite players also have Second-Team honors, while 25 have been Third-Teamers It’s at this level that you begin to see other current young talents like Chris Paul, Dwyane Wade, Dwight Howard and Kevin Durant, all top five picks — and likely Hall of Famers (baring injury). Still, only one in five players drafted in the Top 3 have attained this height, and it’s even more rare beyond that.

Thirty-three players have topped out as Second-Teamers. The highest peaking Pacer, Jermaine O’Neal, is in this group. Other names include Ralph Sampson, Ray Allen, Vince Carter, Buck Williams and Chauncey Billups. The top 10 picks account for the bulk of these awards, with later picks including JO (#17), Sam Cassell (#24) and Gilbert Arenas (#30).

Rounding out this section are the 25 players who have peaked as Third Team All-NBA. As noted above, this has only been awarded for 22 of the 33 years in the study, which helps explain the smaller total. While concentrated in the high picks, this group actually has six players drafted after the 25th pick. Dennis Rodman (#27) is the highest of them, Manu Ginobili (#57) was the one taken the latest and the others are Tony Parker (#28), Carlos Boozer (#34), Michael Redd (#43) and Anthony Mason (#53). This was the highest accolade that Reggie Miller earned during his storied career with the Indiana Pacers.

Fans of the Blue and Gold will be harboring a distant hope that their selection this year will join Eddie Jones, Joe Johnson, and Paul Pierce as #10 picks with “All-NBA” on their resume.

To see a complete listing of the All NBA Players taken over the last 33 years, please click here.

All-Stars

In everyday conversation, the most common appellation thrown around is “All-Star.” Players are described as “All-Star level” or “Borderline All-Star.” Everybody understands the general intention of the statement, but it seems that there is a disconnect between what people (including me) think makes an All-Star, and what players have actually been All Stars. As an example, I’m sure virtually everyone would agree that Josh Smith is an “All-Star level” player, yet he has not made a single appearance. Meanwhile, guys like Jayson Williams, Tyrone Hill and Dana Barros all have “All-Star” on their resume. (Jalen Rose, meanwhile, never got to play in the mid-season event.)

One of the problems is in the disjointed selection process. Starters are voted in by the fans, leaving it open for some odd results, most notably Allen Iverson’s selection to this past season’s starting five. Reserves are voted on by the coaches. While there may be subjectivity in the other awards, at least the votes are coming from the same cross-section. That can’t be said for All-Star. The other thing that comes up are injury substitutions. Since an actual game is being played, there have been many seasons where more than the allotted 24 are credited with All-Star appearances. In those cases, both the original selection (who is unable to play) and his replacement are “All-Stars.” (Congratulations Mo Williams.)

The distribution starts to spread here, indicating that getting All-Stars is a possibility throughout the First Round. Six players taken at #10 (Eddie Jones, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce, Caron Butler, Horace Grant and Jeff Malone) made All-Star Appearances. If you’re top 3 pick doesn’t become an All-Star, then he’s a disappointment. It drops pretty quickly thereafter, so it is more of a hope than an expectation from that point. (In the second round, it can probably be reclassified as a wish.)

Non-All-Star Stars

Of the peak tiers listed here above All-Star, you would think that all of those guys (Hall of Famers, MVPs, All-NBA Teamers) would have been All-Stars, as well. But that is not the case, as four of those 99 players were never All-Stars. Andrew Bogut earned 3rd Team All-NBA honors this season, despite never appearing in any All-Star Game in his five-year career. Point guards Phil Ford and Rod Strickland both got Second Team nods, yet somehow never represented their conference in the midseason event. (Deron Williams was a similar case until this year, having a 2nd Team accolade on his mantle but no All-Star jersey in his closet.) Finally, Drazen Petrovic has a bust in the Hall of Fame, but no All-Star jerseys.

Despite the quirkiness of the selection process, it is an accomplishment — and probably represents the upper end of expectations for players drafted outside of the top 10. One could make the argument that it marks the upper end of reasonable expectations even for top 10 picks. There are still some pretty damn good players who completed their careers without being recognized beyond All-Star. Included in this are former Pacers Mark Jackson, Rik Smits and Dale Davis, as well as Jack Sikma, Maurice Cheeks and Charles Oakley.

This group also includes some youngsters apparently destined for bigger and better things — Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose and Al Horford — and one that all Pacer fans hope is, too: Danny Granger.

For a complete listing of all of this sample’s All-Stars, please click here.

All-Defensive Teams

The last award we’re going to look at are the 1st Team and 2nd Team All-Defense. In most cases, these are guys who are/were excellent defenders, but either didn’t have enough overall game or notoriety to get All-NBA or All-Star nods.

While this is at the bottom of the listing here, it’s still an exclusive, arguably elite club. Unlike the “All-Star” tier, where almost all of the higher award tiers players could claim to be an All-Star as well, All-Defense was not just a stepping stone to the next level. Less than a quarter of the 181 players identified in the higher tiers can also tout All-Defense on their resumes. This is the area that recognizes the special contribution of players like former Pacer Derrick McKey, Shane Battier, Tayshaun Prince, Nate McMillan, Paul Pressey and Thabo Sefolosha.

Because this is where defensive “specialists” can be rewarded, you will see the distribution be flatter across the draft groups. However, that could be more reflective of the fact that fewer high picks become All-Defense than any other factor.

Horace Grant and Eddie Jones are the only #10 picks to win the award, but you can see a few selections even into the Second Round. Getting an All Defense player at #10 would be a very nice way to maximize this draft for the Pacers. If you know who that’s gonna be, be sure to let Larry Bird know.

For a complete listing of all of the All Defense selections from the 1977 through 2009 draft, please click here.

Summing Up

Reviewing these accolades is a good exercise because it’s a relatively common language. However, I must remind everyone that only 209 of the 1,922 draftees have earned these honors. There are plenty of good players who aren’t included anywhere in the above discussion. Quality veterans like Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller and Jason Terry. There are plenty of young guys like Brook Lopez, Russell Westbrook, O.J. Mayo, Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings and Steph Curry for whom it’s likely just a matter of time before they make this list.

The way I look at it is, if you drafted a player who lands on this list, you’ve done a good job regardless of draft position. At the same time, if your guy isn’t an “award winner,” that doesn’t preclude the possibility of it still being a “good” pick. As a final visual presentation, let’s look one more time at where these award winners are drafted.

With a radar or “spider” chart, you can see the relative distribution changes. The shaded areas indicate the distribution, and the simplest way to think of these is to imagine you are reading a clock.

There are 13 sectors, with the #1 to #3 Group at 12 o’clock position. Starting with the MVP Chart, you can see that the shaded area is contained almost entirely within the first sector. As you read through the charts below, you’ll see the shading (distribution) creep clockwise, encompassing more of the later draft picks.

Like the MVPs, the draft picks from the top 3 slots dominate the group, but you see some activity further down the draft board. You can see a slight flaring to the left of the “12 o’clock” radial, and that represents Drazen Petrovic, who was drafted 60th.

As you look at the three All-NBA teams, you begin to see more significant involvement of the rest of the top 10, then…

Moving onto the All-Star level broadens the distribution, until…

Finally, the All-Defense teams show more penetration into the later First and even Second Round.

It’s important to understand that individual awards don’t always translate into team victories. As LeBron’s Cavs so startingly demonstrated, one great player cannot do it alone. This season will mark the 21st time in the last 33 years that the regular season MVP’s team did not win the title. Taking it a little further, of the 25 players who have won MVPs and/or made the Hall of Fame, 10 have not won titles. Seven have retired, and never will. Two — LeBron James and Dirk Nowitzki — are still active and at the top of their game. The tenth is Allen Iverson.

Part III of this series will be coming out early next week. In it, I’ll review the first-year impact of the draftees. This will look at both how they did as rookies on the 5-Star scale, and what awards they won — including Rookie of the Year and All-Rookie Teams.

What Does a Draft Pick Get You? Part I: Stat Ratings and Number Crunching

Tim Donahue — Tue, 18 May 2010 18:51:10 +0000

When somebody says David Harrison was a bad draft pick, is that accurate? At what point in the first round does is stop making sense to expect a starter? What is the value of tanking? Perhaps more importantly, what is the reliability of tanking? The following post may or may not answer these questions, but with the Draft Lottery taking place tonight, we’re going to take some time to try to understand what kind of return teams have historically gotten from draft picks.

For this analysis, I’ve collected data on every draft class from 1977 through the current one, encompassing all regular season activity from the 1978 season to the recently finished 2010 season. During that time frame, over 3,450 draft picks made, and over 17,00 of them played in at least one NBA regular season game.

To make it more relevant to today’s two-round system, I’m going to limit the study to the Top 60 players taken in each draft. For some, that will mean dipping into the third round, but for all of the classes between 1988 and 2005, it will mean taking the entire two rounds, though those drafts had fewer than 60 selections. This drops the sample to 1,992 draftees, of whom 1,553 played in at least one NBA game.

Today, we’re going to use the data available from the inimitable Basketball-Reference.com to try to crank through some numbers. Later, in Part II , we will go through all of the awards and honors bestowed on the players in this sample.

Number Crunching

In order to do a statistical analysis on this many players, I needed something that approached a unifying number or metric. For this analysis, I dusted off an old metric developed by Martin Manley in the late 1980s called “Production Rating.” It is calculated as follows:

Production Rating (PR) = (Points + Rebounds + Assists + Blocks + Steals – Turnovers – Missed Field Goals – Missed Free Throws)/Games Played

To update this metric a little I’ve made two adjustments to it:

Pace – I have basically adjusted all of the PR’s to a per 100 basis. As a shortcut, I used the Pace Factor for the player’s team for this adjustment. For example, Danny Granger’s 2010 numbers were “played at” 97.1, so they were multiplied by (100/97.1). It’s not perfect, but it’s sufficient for this purpose.

Reliability – Essentially, this is just a way to adjust for games missed. The net effect is to treat the games missed as a zero (0) PR. For career reliability, I put a minimum number of years at five (5) years. This clearly doesn’t impact players whose draft classes haven’t been in the league long enough, but it is meant to penalize players who played shorter than average careers. An example would former Pacer Kenny Williams, who only played for four years. His 260 games would be divided by 410, instead of 328. If a player played five or more years, he was not penalized for “missed” years. For example, neither Michael Jordan nor David Robinson were penalized for the full seasons that they missed either at the beginning and middle of their careers, respectively.

There are flaws in this system. It will overrate stat stuffers like Shawn Marion or Troy Murphy. It will underrate players like Scottie Pippen, Joe Dumars and Shane Battier, but, hey, so does PER. Overall, however, I don’t believe that this analysis is telling you (or me) any lies.

If you want to see how others have done this, Tom Haberstroh used EWA in the D.R.A.F.T. Initiative on ESPN, and Roland Beech of 82games.com used a very simple rating combining Points, Rebounds, and Assists per game.

Breaking Down the Draft

To jump start the numbers discussion, let’s start with this chart:

This shows the simple average for the Adjusted Production Rating per 100 (AdjPR100) for each of the top 60 draft slots over the last 33 years. I’ll explain further what the AdjPR100 number “means” in a little bit, but this gives a good visual representation of the the way the draft flows in terms of pick value (using production as a proxy for value).

The #1 pick stands almost head and shoulders above all others, with its 16.3 average a full 20% higher than the second most productive slot (#3). The rest of the top five are grouped relatively closely together before decent drop off to the second half of the top 10. The second half of the top ten is interesting in that the #10 pick actually has posted a slightly higher average (9.4) than the #6 has (9.3). Flowing to the right, you see the continued decline, but with a flattening curve as we approach #60. As we’ll see later, the averages in the latter half of this sample will be greatly diluted not just by below average performers, but by players who have never seen a minute of NBA play.

From a broad perspective, the visual could be said to tell us what we already know: the earlier the draft pick, the better. However, my eyes shows me subtle fluctuations that call for further investigation. In order to avoid dragging you through each of the 60 picks, I will put the picks into groups. For the “First Round” picks, or Top 30, each group will contain 3 picks (1 to 3, 4 to 6, etc.). For the “Second Round,” each group will contain 10 picks. This smooths the curve a little bit, but I will come back and discuss specific draft picks, especially whichever slot the Pacers end up having.

Seeing Stars

Within each of these Draft Groups, I going to stratify the AdjPR100 using a 5-star rating system. Here is a brief explanation of the ratings:

5 Stars (21 and above) – The very best, most productive players. Players who attain this level over a full career become All-Stars, All-NBA players, or even MVPs.

4 Stars (16 to 21) – Almost all of these become either All-Stars or All-NBA players. There have been players in this group earning MVPs (Allen Iverson, Steve Nash) and others elected to the Hall of Fame.

3 Stars (12 to 16) – Generally speaking, these would be players who represent good starting material, but there have been plenty of All-Stars and All-NBA nods in this group. They might not be perennial, but they can peak at that level. There is one Hall of Famer at this level: Joe Dumars, whose defensive contributions are underrated by this (and most) rating systems.

2 Stars (8 to 12) – Good, solid players. Starters in some situations, key reserves in others. There are some All-Star and All-NBA appearances, but not regular ones. Drazen Petrovic was a Group 2 player who made the Hall, but that was based on his European career, as well. You’ll also see some players here like Derrick McKey, Paul Pressey or Michael Cooper, whose defense would be strong enough to put them ahead of some higher rated players in the real world.

1 Star (3 to 8) – Some rotation players, some fringe players. You have one All-Star (Jayson Williams), and a handful of guys who made All-Defensive teams as specialists — Thabo Sefolosha, Bill Hanzlik, T.R. Dunn, to name a few.

0 Stars (0 to 3) – Anywhere from fringe players to players who haven’t gotten their shot to outright busts. This group also includes the 369 draftees who have not played a single game in the NBA. Among those are Blake Griffin and Ricky Rubio, who are expected to earn much higher ratings once they actually suit up and step on the floor.

As noted in the explanations, this is not perfect, but I believe it’s functional. While you could certainly argue (and I probably would, as well) that Scottie Pippen should be a 5 Star, instead of a 4, or that Joe Dumars should likewise be a 4 Star, but the rating system as a whole, in my opinion, makes sense. Here’s a look at the distribution across the 1,922 draftees in the study.

This shows a very skewed distribution towards the bad. I believe this is accurate, because the majority of the players who wander through the league are fringe players. In any given season, 450 players see the floor for an NBA team. There are only 150 starting slots, and the vast majority of coaches only give meaningful minutes on a night basis to eight guys. About 5% of the players in a season will become All-Stars, and about 3% will be named to one of the All NBA Squads. With this perspective of the overall force structure of the NBA in mind, it’s time to start marching through the draft groups.

Picks #1 to #3

Number of Draftees: 99
Top-Rated Player: LeBron James (#1, 2003) 29.57
Lowest-Rated Player: Chris Washburn (#3, 1986) 0.52
Never/Has Not Played: 2 (Len Bias, picked #2 in 1986; Blake Griffin, picked #1 in 2009)
For a complete list of all 99 players, click here

Star Distribution:

Without question, this is the place to be in the draft. Unless you just completely screw up (I’m lookin’ at you, Joe Dumars), you’re going to get a starter and more likely than not, an All-Star. (At this point, I should make the caveat that all drafts are different, simply because they have different draft classes. Though I may lapse into shorthand about chances and expectations, I am not implying that every #1 pick offers the same opportunity. History is never a perfect predictor of the future, but it can give you an idea of when to be happy and when to be disappointed.)

You’ve got 11 of the 24 Five-Star guys in this group, including guys like LeBron, Michael Jordan, Timmy Duncan and Magic Johnson. The vast majority of these guys find ways to be productive members of the NBA society. Whether those guys are living up to the hopes and dreams placed on picks made so high is another question, but this is where most of the best players are taken.

There are also some real tragedies here. Jay Williams played moderately well as the #2 pick for Chicago, before his career was ended by a motorcycle accident. I can still remember the day they found Len Bias’ body. The league and the city of Portland are fretting over whether Greg Oden will ever be healthy enough to fulfill his promise. Blake Griffin became yet another chapter in the star-crossed history of the Clippers by losing his rookie year to injury.

In any case, this is where MVPs and All-NBA players are “born” into the NBA, so you better not drop the ball.

Picks #4 to #6

Number of Draftees: 99
Top-Rated Player: Kevin Garnett (#5, 1995) – 27.18
Lowest-Rated Player: Russell Cross (#6, 1983) – 0.40
Never/Has Not Played: 1 (Ricky Rubio, #5 in 2009)
For a complete list of all 99 players, click here

Star Distribution:

Still plenty of good “gets” here, but the distribution slides ever so slightly to the right. The 63% hit rate of 3-Star or better players in the Top 3 picks drops to only 45% here, meaning that we’ve just that quickly moved into the area where their have been more 2-Star or less players than 3-Star or better.

Besides Kevin Garnett and Larry Bird, other greats include Scottie Pippen, Charles Barkley, Chris Paul, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. The 2010 Rookie of the Year, Tyreke Evans, was taken by Sacramento with the fourth pick. You’ve got a decent shot at something special here, but you can’t quite count on it. Drafting here should get you a solid starter, with a downside of a rotation player.

What failure looks like here is William Bedford, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, and, yes, Pacer fans, Jonathan Bender. It remains to be seen whether it will also look like Minnesota’s head scratching decision to take two point guards (Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn) with the 5th and 6th picks last year. Flynn put up a respectable 2-Star rating (11.3) this past season, but Rubio spent the season in Spain, and Minny slogged to 15 wins. On the bright side, they’ve got a 56% shot at at Top 3 pick this season and a 100% chance at a Top 5 pick.

Picks #7 to #9

Number of Draftees: 99
Top-Rated Player: Dirk Nowitzki (#9, 1998) – 25.73
Lowest-Rated Player: Patrick O’Bryant (#9, 2006) – 0.82
Never/Has Not Played: None
For a complete list of all 99 players, click here

Star Distribution:

Before I start discussing the overall distribution of this group, I wanted to point out something I just noticed. In each section, I’ve listed the highest- and lowest-rated player (who played) for the group. The players in each group listed as lowest — Chris Washburn, Russell Cross and Patrick O’Bryant — all have one thing in common. They were each drafted by the Golden State Warriors. You can take that for what it’s worth.

Moving on to the ratings, this group has only produced two 5-Star guys — Nowitzki and Shawn Marion — and Marion should probably be noted as an outlier — an overvalued player who is product of the rating system. There are almost as many 4-Star guys (11) as in the #4 to #6 group (12), and they include Jack Sikma, Andre Iguodala, Amare Stoudemire and Andre Miller. The 3-Star, 4-Star and 5-Star players make up a touch over one-third (35%) of the total, while there are only a couple more busts.

The busts here aren’t particularly memorable. Besides O’Bryant, there are guys like Rafael Araujo, Bo Kimble and Ed O’Bannon. Perhaps the most notable league-wide would be Joe Alexander, who suffered the ignominy of being the highest drafted player not to have his third-year option picked up. Pacer fans will think of George McCloud and Ike Diogu, both failed experiments in Indy. McCloud, however was able to salvage some semblance of a career as a fringe rotation player, falling just short of making the 2-Star rating.

Picks #10 to #12

Number of Draftees: 99
Top-Rated Player: Brook Lopez (#10, 2008) – 21.47
Lowest-Rated Player: Yaroslav Korolev (#12, 2005) – 0.07
Never/Has Not Played: 1 (Fran Vasquez, #11 in 2005)
For a complete list of all 99 players, click here

Star Distribution:

The #10 to #12 grouping actually straddles one of the step downs in the draft. If you refer back to the very first chart in this piece, you’ll see drop-offs from the #1 pick to the rest of the Top 5, from the Top 5 to picks #6 through #10, and then into the late lottery. As a whole, the picks #10, #11 and #12 have been 50/50 between producing solid or better players and producing fringe players and busts. However, that’s not something that gets spread like peanut butter across these three slots.

There is a marked difference between pick #10 and the #11 and #12 slots. In fact, the draft history for the 10 pick has been as good or better from both an Average AdjPR100 basis and a Star Distribution than picks #6 through #9. Looking down the list, you see some very nice players indeed — Brook Lopez, Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, Jason Terry, Caron Butler, Brandon Jennings, Eddie Jones, Jeff Malone and Andrew Bynum.

Where the #10 pick has ten 3-Star, 4-Star or 5 Star players out of 33 picks, the #11 and #12 picks managed only 12 out of their 66 chances. Reggie Miller appears (at least through my Blue-and-Gold-colored glasses) to clearly be the best player among the latter two picks, standing as the lone 4-Star guy in the group. Pearl Jam might make an argument for Mookie Blaylock, but I’d win. Others of note are Fat Lever, Kevin Willis and Cedric “Cornbread” Maxwell. Jason Thompson is the highest-rated youngster in the group.

The flops here are hardly worth mentioning. As I peruse the names nobody jumps out as someone who would have had high expectations, but failed. Perhaps Jerryd Bayless, but he just really hasn’t gotten a chance yet and has shown flashes that he might still be a very good player in this league. Mostly, I think things like, “Trajan Langdon? Really?” I do, however, enjoy looking at the 2005 draft, where Orlando went for Fran Vasquez and the Clippers drafted Yaroslav Korolev, thus aiding and abetting Larry Bird in being able to end trade talks with another team that evening by saying, “I gotta go. I’m going to draft Danny Granger.”

Picks #13 to #15

Number of Draftees: 99
Top Rated Player: Karl Malone (#13, 1985) – 27.83
Lowest Rated Player: Scott Haskin (#14, 1993) – 0.24
Never/Has Not Played: (Frederic Weis, #15 in 1999)
For a complete list of all 99 players, click here

Star Distribution:

Karl Malone! Kobe Bryant! Clyde Drexler! Steve Nash! TROY MURPHY!!!!!! Holy Counter-Intuitive, Batman! Teams shouldn’t tank for the Top Three, they should be targeting late lottery. That’s five, count ‘em, five MVP awards and four (including future) Hall of Famers right there. And the cherry on top is T-Murda, baby!!!! Get down, get down — uhhh — get down, get down.

Perhaps it’s because it has the 13th pick, but this is just a weird mix. You’ve got four bona fide Hall of Famers tucked in with some quality players (Tim Hardaway, Al Jefferson, Dale Davis and Thunder Dan Majerle) then poured in a vat with a whole buncha blah. This is the point in the draft where it really no longer makes any sense at all to expect to be able to grab a starter. In fact, history shows an almost 2-to-1 edge for low rotation, fringe and bust players over significant contributors.

In fact, we’re going to see the draft kind of flatten out over the next 10 picks or so. Of course, every draft is different, but most aren’t as different as we like to pretend. To me, this is an area where GMs should begin to feel a little more comfortable gambling. They should feel more comfortable trading back, and this is an area where they should make “their” mistake. Now, I don’t mean that they should screw up. I simply mean that since there’s more inherent risk in these picks, that they should go with the guy they like, even if he’d be considered a reach.

That type of reasoning could be used to explain Bird’s selection of Hansbrough last summer. I was not a fan at the time, but even in the little time that he played last year, I could see some of what Bird and O’Brien would see in him. (And, no, it’s not that he’s white.) By the same token, this reasoning could also be used to argue that every GM who passed on DeJuan Blair was a pinhead. Yes, the knees were risky and, yes, there were and — will be — times that his size will hurt him in the league, but the talent is there. Perhaps #13 to #15 in last year’s draft was too high, perhaps not. Still, he should have gone somewhere in the first round.

Picks #16 to #18

Number of Draftees: 99
Top Rated Player: John Stockton (#16, 1984) – 21.74
Lowest Rated Player: Luther Wright (#18, 1993) – 0.03
Never/Has Not Played: 2 (Rod Griffin, #17 in 1978; Troy Bell, #16 in 2003)
For a complete list of all 99 players, click here.

Star Distribution:

Some teams have definitely struck gold in this part of the draft, but that’s something of a misleading vivid. John Stockton and Joe Dumars are the last of the enshrined Hall of Famers from the first round of these draft classes. After that, you’ve got a pretty nice collection of names. Statistically, Josh Smith heads up the list and is joined by Shawn Kemp, David West, Hedo Turkoglu and James Posey.

The Pacers have gotten a lot of mileage from this part of the draft (though not all were selected by the Pacers). Danny Granger is the most celebrated, but other Pacer connections in this area include Jermaine O’Neal, Mark Jackson, Vern Fleming and Roy Hibbert.

However, the big thing to say here is that this is the first group where the zero (0) Star rating has the most players. Around the late teens is where I start to understand teams selling draft picks, and start to scratch my head at the willingness of fans and GMs to trade established rotation players and even starters for these picks.

Picks #19 to #21

Number of Draftees: 99
Top Rated Player: Larry Nance (#20, 1981) – 19.31
Lowest Rated Player: Monti Davis (#21, 1980) – 0.01
Never/Has Not Played: 1 (Larry Knight, #20 in 1979)
For a complete list of all 99 players, click here.

Star Distribution:

More of the same here, though there’s a lot of reason for Boston fans to be excited about Rajon Rondo, taken 21st in 2006. Lots of role players here, and though the zero (0) Star column is no longer the biggest, that’s primarily because the 1-Stars are stealing from the higher-rated tiers.

A couple of random Pacer-related thoughts here. First, considering Shawne Williams over Rondo, Hansbrough over guys like Ty Lawson, Eric Maynor and Darren Collison, and the overwhelming apathy that I (and most of the rest of the league) feel towards Brandon Rush, perhaps I’m not so comfortable with the idea of Larry making “his” mistake. Second, for all of the clamoring for a Dale Davis to put next to Roy Hibbert, it strikes me that a Larry Nance-type (or at least the Larry Nance I remember) would probably be a much better fit.

Also, Jeff Foster, drafted 21st, is in this group as one of the 2-Stars guys. He strikes me as a good illustration of what a good 2-Star player is: reliable, but limited role player capable of making a contribution to a good team.

Picks #22 to #24

Number of Draftees: 99
Top Rated Player: Reggie Lewis (#22, 1987) – 15.93
Lowest Rated Player: Tom Sewell (#22, 1984) – 0.00
Never/Has Not Played: 5
For a complete list of all 99 players, click here.

Star Distribution:

Arguably, this has a better distribution than the last group, with 33% being 2-Star guys or better, as opposed to 23% for picks #19 to #21. Another tragic story here with Reggie Lewis, whose death cut short a promising career (and life, which would be infinitely more important to his loved ones). Though only a 3-Star rating for his career, his last two season of AdjPR100 were over 20. Drafted in the Year of the Reggies (the 1987 draft class included Lewis, Miller and Williams), many thought he was becoming (or already was) the best of the three. This, of course, is nothing more than blasphemy.

Some other fun names here. Norm Nixon, who I remember for three things: playing for the Lakers, blowing out his knee in a softball game and being married to Debbie Allen. Tayshaun Prince, who the Pacers actually drafted instead of Freddie Jones, and most certainly did not block Reggie’s lay-up the year the Pacers won the NBA Title. Arvydas Sabonis, who I believe made David Robinson cry in the 1988 Olympics. Some good role players, tempered by the almost 40% bust rate.

Picks #25 to #27

Number of Draftees: 99
Top Rated Player: Vlade Divac (#26, 1989) – 16.68
Lowest Rated Player: Ron Moore (#25, 1987) – 0.03
Never/Has Not Played: 6, including Vern Fleming’s twin brother Victor
For a complete list of all 99 players, click here.

Star Distribution:

Besides Vlade and his beard, you also find Dennis Rodman here. The Worm was a complete tool, but he was a great basketball player. He was eligible for the Hall of Fame either this year or last, and didn’t even make it as finalist. On the whole, that’s probably stupid, particularly given my opinion that the whole “first ballot” thing is an artificial construct created by some pinhead anonymous sportswriters and Hall voters to assert their control over their betters. Still, if that is how it’s going to be, I’d have to say that any guy traded — in his prime — straight up for Will Perdue probably shouldn’t expect to be “first ballot.”

The draftees in this group from the 2009 class made a nice splash, with Rodrigue Beaubois and DeMarre Carroll getting some good burn, and Taj Gibson actually making First Team All-Rookie.

Picks #28 to #30

Number of Draftees: 99
Top Rated Player: David Lee (#30, 2005) – 18.45
Lowest Rated Player: Rickie Winslow (#28, 1987) – 0.00
Never/Has Not Played: 15, though Tiago Splitter might make it 14 some day
For a complete list of all 99 players, click here.

Star Distribution:

I’m calling this the end of the first round, though some of these players were technically second round picks. Tony Parker, P.J. Brown, Gilbert Arenas, Josh Howard, Toni Kukoc and Anderson Varejao were all productive (to very good) players to come out of this portion of the draft.

Which brings us full circle to the opening question: is it accurate to say David Harrison was a bad pick? Yup. Look, it wasn’t egregiously bad, and it certainly didn’t have a huge opportunity cost. He’s lumped in with that 60% stack for the zero (0) Stars. Still, Sideshow Andy was taken with the pick immediately following our selection. At the end of the day, David sucked … and, apparently, inhaled, too.

The Second Round (Picks #31 to #60)

The big picture on the second round that most of these are nothing more than names on a sheet of paper or training camp fodder. Of the 932 “Second Round” draftees in this study, 337 of them have never played an NBA game. Over 700 of them (77%) currently stand as Zero-Star players. Only 18 players have or have had careers as 3-Star players or better. Guys like Manu Ginobili, Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap stand out, but they are most certainly exceptions. To give you an idea, A.J. Price is currently the fourth rated #52 pick in the last 33 years, hoping to catch and pass Donald Royal, Fred Hoiberg and Rasual Butler. Of the 272 total picks between #51 to #60 in the past 33 years, AJ currently has the 24th best career.

The Pacers (probably) have two picks this year: #40 and #57. They’ll make the roster, because rookie Second Rounders are the absolute cheapest player you can get … but I wouldn’t expect much from them.

Picks #31 to #40

Number of Draftees: 330
Top Rated Player: Carlos Boozer (#34, 2002) – 18.59
Lowest Rated Player: Casey Shaw (#37, 1998) – 0.01
Never/Has Not Played: 63
For a complete list of all 330 players, click here.

Star Distribution:

Picks #41 to #50

Number of Draftees: 330
Top Rated Player: Jeff Hornacek (#46, 1986) – 16.76
Lowest Rated Player: Mille Ilic (#43, 2005) – 0.01
Never/Has Not Played: 121
For a complete list of all 330 players, click here.

Star Distribution:

Picks #51 to #60

Number of Draftees: 272
Top Rated Player: Anthony Mason (#53, 1988) – 15.26
Lowest Rated Player: Ernest Brown (#52, 2000) – 0.01
Never/Has Not Played: 154
For a complete list of all 272 players, click here.

Star Distribution:

Final Thoughts

I don’t know if this information will change anyone’s basic understanding of the draft. What this exercise has done for me is to provide perspective and specific detail to help the conversation along. This isn’t really meant to be a predictor, even though I might occasionally be tempted to speak as if it is.

If the Pacers draft at #10, history says that getting a solid starter or a rotational player should be considered a success. However, that doesn’t mean that should be the target. The reason that some good players fall to later draft picks isn’t because some drafts are deeper than others (though that can and does have an impact). It’s because talent evaluation is subjective, and not every GM comes to the table with the same view of the prospects.

Because of this, the intuitive belief that the higher the pick, the better, isn’t always true. The human factor plays heavily in how a draft flows. There will be good players available at the tenth pick. It is no stretch at all to say that at least one of them will end up being better than some of those taken before him. If a team is prepared, can understand what the players offer and how that fits into their plans, then they can change their team from the late lottery.

Still, each draft and draft class is different. We can talk about what has happened, but that may not translate directly to what will happen. One of the things about that draft, and talent evaluation in general, is that it’s far more art than science. Because of that, draft picks can’t necessarily be judged on a binary pass/fail system.

I realize that this is way too much information, but if this works right, it will set the foundation for a conversation we’ll hold in the next few weeks approaching the draft. In the second part of this series, we’ll take a look at the more subjective side – end of season awards and accolades — and hopefully that will provide even more shared knowledge for our little chat.